1月8日【港股Podcast】恆指、美團、嗶哩嗶哩、舜宇光學、中芯、比亞迪 1、恆指：看多投資者，博取明日小反彈，持有25900收回價的牛證，有看淡投資者表示尾盤熊證過夜，明天跌回25900點。 Simon：大家好呀，那又來和大家回顧一下港股的情況啦。可以看到今天（8日）恆指呢，還是繼續下跌了。是的，今天也一樣，盤中其實曾經跌得比較厲 害，不過好在最後收盤的時候，還能回升一點點，收在了26149點。當然啦，整體還是下跌的，這也沒辦法。我們來看看投資者的看法，能發現有部分投資 者是看好的，他們認為可能還是以搏反彈為主，不過未必能看到明顯的回升。也有一些投資者反過來，繼續持有熊證，就是想搏它明天再跌一點點。 我們先從技術分析來看。目前技術信號的總結還是以"賣出"信號為主，有8個賣出信號，6個買入信號，賣出信號稍微多一些。先給大家一個支持位作為參 考，現在的支持位大概在25600點。所以如果是打算搏反彈的投資者，或許可以參考25600點這個支持位，意思就是儘量選擇一些在25600點以下的產品。不 過有人可能會覺得，25600點距離現在有500點，還是有點擔心，覺得距離近了點。那再往下一個支持位大概在25100點左右 ...

Simon：Niki，你好啊。 中銀國際董事Niki：新年進步！身體健康啊， Simon：這兩樣東西都很重要，身體健康真的相當關鍵。再看看股市，其實也一樣，也算是新年有進步啦。比如以恆指來看，今天其實漲了不少，現在已經 到26700點左右了。那從市場氣氛來看，這段時間有什麼觀察呢？ 中銀國際董事Niki：哇，這段時間能明顯看到港股好轉了很多。其實整個12月，恆指基本上都在26000點左右徘徊，漲上去又跌下來，漲上去又跌下來，原 本以為會在25000到26000點這個區間內上下波動。但你看，到了今年開頭的這幾天，大盤的方向和成交量都很熱烈，已經漲到26700點了，這其實是近一兩 個月的高位了。而且大盤的成交量也達到了2500億左右，我剛才出來的時候還是這個數。除了港股，A股方面漲到十年的高位啊。所以整體來看，港股和A 股的市場氣氛都很不錯，呈現出紅色的走勢。 去年港股其實漲了差不多接近三成，所以這也是近幾年表現最好的一年了。相信在2026年，也會繼續延續去年的好的勢頭。比如好多個板塊，大家都可以持 續關注，包括我們去年一直和Simon在節目里提到的芯片股份、科技股份，還有資源類的股份，特別是貴金屬類。大家最近可 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) showed a positive trend at the beginning of the year, with a significant rise last Friday, breaking through the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, which pleased many investors [1] - Today's performance saw a slight increase in the closing price, but the overall gain was not substantial, leading to some investor disappointment [2] - Despite the stable movement of the HSI, trading volume increased compared to previous periods, which typically suggests a potential for upward movement [2] Technical Signals - The HSI is currently at the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with 9 sell signals and 4 buy signals indicating a bearish sentiment [3] - Support is estimated around 25,800 points, with a potential drop to 25,500 points if this level is breached, while resistance is at approximately 26,400 points [3] - For bullish investors, buying options below 25,500 points is considered safer, with some options having leverage ratios close to 20 times [4] Individual Stock Analysis Kuaishou (01024.HK) - Kuaishou's stock price has shown significant upward movement, closing at 73.6 HKD, with trading volume breaking previous records [8] - Technical signals indicate 8 sell signals and 5 buy signals, suggesting a bearish outlook in the short term, with a resistance level at 81.4 HKD [9] WuXi AppTec (02359.HK) - WuXi AppTec's stock price reached a high of 104.2 HKD before closing lower, with increased trading volume compared to recent days [13] - The resistance level is identified at 108.2 HKD, with a potential further increase to 112.3 HKD if this level is surpassed [13] AIA Group (01299.HK) - AIA's stock price closed at 89.9 HKD, showing a slight increase, but with a predominance of sell signals (8 sell vs. 6 buy) indicating a cautious outlook [17] - The stock needs to break the resistance at 85 HKD to have a chance of reaching 90.4 HKD [17] Xiaomi (01810.HK) - Xiaomi's stock price closed at 39.3 HKD, with increased trading volume but overall disappointing performance [20] - The support level is around 38.4 HKD, with a potential drop to 35.8 HKD if this level is breached, while resistance is noted at 40 HKD [20] Tencent (00700.HK) - Tencent's stock price saw a slight increase, with a resistance level at approximately 629 HKD, and potential further increase to 657 HKD if this level is surpassed [25] - The technical signals are currently neutral, indicating no clear direction for investors [25]

舜宇光學短線分析：震盪蓄勢，關鍵阻力前如何抉擇？ 近期，舜宇光學股價在關鍵技術位附近呈現震盪走勢。截至2026年1月5日，股價報67.5元，成交額2.82億元。股價在過去五個交易日內振幅達7.3%，顯示多 空雙方在當前價位展開激烈爭奪。結合技術指標與市場消息，該股正面臨短期方向的抉擇，而部分投資者已表達出看至70元，再挑戰90元的市場觀點。本文 將全面剖析其短線技術格局、市場多空觀點，並詳細解讀相關衍生產品策略。 技術分析：均線收斂待突破，指標信號分歧 從技術圖表觀察，舜宇光學正處於一個關鍵的收斂階段。股價目前圍繞短期均線系統波動，最新價略高於10天線（65.42元），但低於30天線（65.87元）與 60天線（71.12元）。這種均線纏繞的狀態，通常預示著市場正在等待新的催化劑來選擇突破方向。值得關注的是，多個擺動指標發出矛盾信號。RSI指標處 於47的中性區域，顯示暫無明顯的超買或超賣壓力。然而，威廉指標和隨機震盪指標均提示市場處於超買狀態，並發出賣出信號，這與CCI指標給出的買入 信號形成背離。這種技術指標的分歧，增加了短線走勢的不確定性，但也為區間操作提供了參考。一目均衡表與MACD指標均給出買入信號 ...

港交所短線走勢膠著，衍生工具如何捕捉技術機會？ 近期，港股市場氣氛改善，成交量有所回升，帶動市場核心標的香港交易所（00388.HK）股價企穩。港交所股價報408.6元，小幅上升0.44%。從技術走勢 看，股價在經歷上月震盪後，於當前價位附近展現出多空博弈加劇的態勢。本文將對港交所進行短線技術分析，並探討如何運用窩輪及牛熊證產品在特定市 況下進行部署，同時深入解析反映市場情緒的"購沽比率"這一關鍵指標，並結合市場產品的表現進行回顧。 短線技術分析與關鍵價位評估 從日線圖觀察，港交所股價目前正處於一個關鍵的短期整理區間。股價在近期試圖反彈，但上方正面臨多條中短期移動平均線的聚合壓制。當前10天移動平 均線位於403.08元，而30天和60天移動平均線則分別位於410.85元和421.87元，均高於現價，形成層層阻力。這種均線結構顯示，中期趨勢仍面臨壓力，短 線反彈需克服重重障礙。 綜合來看，當前的關鍵技術價位結構清晰。下方支持方面，首要支持位位於403元附近，該位置與10天線大致重合，是短線強弱的分水嶺；若失守，下一個 更重要的支持位在395元。上方阻力方面，首個關鍵阻力位在419元，突破此位置方可能挑戰更高區 ...

Group 1: Stock Performance and Technical Analysis - AIA's stock price has shown typical range-bound fluctuations, currently at HKD 81.2 with a rise of 2.78% [1] - Technical indicators are neutral with a strength of 9, while several oscillation and trend indicators signal a sell, indicating insufficient short-term momentum [1] - The stock remains above the 60-day moving average of HKD 76.25, with the bull-bear power indicator signaling a buy, suggesting medium to long-term support [1] - Key support levels are at HKD 77 (Support 1) and HKD 75.2 (Support 2), with resistance levels at HKD 81.3 (Resistance 1) and HKD 83.1 (Resistance 2) [1] - The overall probability of an upward movement is 56%, with expected short-term price action between HKD 77 and HKD 81.3 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Market sentiment towards AIA is generally positive, with Citigroup reaffirming a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 99, recognizing the company's stable performance and resilience amid market changes [3] - AIA's ongoing expansion in China's personal pension insurance sector and corporate social responsibility initiatives support its long-term image [3] - There is a notable divergence in investor sentiment regarding short-term trends, with some optimistic investors setting profit-taking points around HKD 95, while more conservative investors believe the stock must first surpass HKD 85 to establish a stronger upward trend [3] Group 3: Derivative Products and Market Dynamics - Recent performance of AIA-related derivatives illustrates how structural differences among products affect price movements, with HSBC bull certificates rising by 36% compared to 19% and 15% for other call options [4] - The differences in performance stem from the inherent structure and leverage characteristics of various derivative tools, with bull certificates offering higher leverage and clearer profit-loss structures [4] - For bullish investors, call options with an exercise price around HKD 88.9 are recommended, with specific options providing high leverage and low premium [4] - For bearish investors, put options with an exercise price of HKD 77.88 and bear certificates with redemption prices between HKD 84 and HKD 85 are suggested, offering substantial leverage [9]

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector experienced a mixed performance, with SMIC (00981) dropping 4.11% to close at HKD 68.85, with a trading volume of HKD 4.608 billion, indicating significant capital speculation [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) saw a decline of 5.41%, while ASM Pacific (00522) increased by 1.61%, highlighting the divergence in stock performance within the sector [1] - Technical indicators for individual stocks show varied signals, with Hua Hong Semiconductor's RSI at 52 indicating a "buy" signal, but its moving average is neutral, suggesting uncertainty in the short-term trend [1] Group 2 - The historical performance of related warrants indicates that when the underlying stock declines, put warrants and bear certificates can benefit significantly, as seen with the notable gains of various products following SMIC's stock drop [3][6] - The core logic of warrants indicates that when the underlying stock rises, call warrants and bull certificates will also rise, while put warrants and bear certificates perform better during declines, with higher leverage potentially leading to greater returns [7] - Recommendations for investors include selecting warrants with lower premiums and reasonable implied volatility to mitigate cost risks, especially in a market focused on technical rebounds without strong earnings support [8]

港交所阻力與支撐分析：短線操作的窩輪選擇要點 近期港股市場交投偏淡，港交所（00388）股價持續承壓，走勢備受關注。港交所最新報價400.2元，微跌0.99%，再度考驗400元心理關口。過去五日振幅僅 約2.9%，資金交投呈現謹慎態勢，反映市場缺乏明確方向，投資者普遍持觀望態度。 技術面：多空信號交織，震盪築底特徵顯現 從技術分析來看，港交所股價目前正處於關鍵技術區域，中短期趨勢偏弱特徵顯著。上方短期移動平均線形成層層阻力，10天線（約408.26元）、30天線 （約419.8元）及60天線（約428.86元）皆位於當前股價之上，構成階段性壓力。 支撐與阻力位的界定相對清晰，為短線操作提供了核心依據。支撐端呈現階梯式特徵：393元作為第一支撐位，是近期多次測試後形成的階段性防線，若能 穩固則有望觸發技術性反彈；385元作為第二支撐位，對應前期震盪平臺下沿，具備較強的心理支撐與資金承接預期。阻力端同樣明確：411元是短期反彈的 首要目標，該位置接近10日均線附近，疊加前期成交密集區壓力，突破難度不小；429元作為第二阻力位，同時靠近30日均線與60日均線的疊加區域，形成 較強中期阻力帶，短期突破需成交量顯著配合 ...

Simon：大家好，今天和大家聊聊窩輪產品的相關情況。 第一只個股：中國平安（02318）：我們先從股價走勢說起，之後再看相關衍生品。大家能看到，中國平安這兩天的股價表現相當亮眼，上漲了不少。今天 （8日）的高位曾達到62.3元，最終收報61.75元。以這個收盤價來看，股價已經突破了保利加通道的頂部位置。 | 信號總結 | 賣出信號 中立信號 | 買入信號 | | --- | --- | --- | | 賣出 | C | b | 從投資者的態度來看，大家普遍比較樂觀，認為股價有望接近70元左右的位置。不過坦白說，70元是一個比較高的價位，已經很久沒有出現過了。如果股價 真的漲到70元，就意味著突破了所有的周線、月線，甚至接近季線。所以從技術圖表來看，70元左右幾乎已經到了股價圖保利加通道的頂部，想要漲到這個 價位可能需要較長時間。當然，股票市場變化無常，但這可以作為大家投資的一個參考。 市場上既然有看好的聲音，也有投資者會繼續持有相關牛證。目前中國平安的牛證產品選擇非常多，市面上有80多只，選擇相當多。如果大家現在關注2318 中國平安的牛證，首先要考慮的就是收回價。 從當前情況來看，股價的支持位大概在58. ...

Simon：大家好呀，又來和大家聊聊窩輪產品的情況啦。有一段時間沒做這個節目了，因為這段時間我經常出差，時間不太固定，經常到處跑，所以未必能 經常抽出時間做窩輪產品的回顧。不過，大家如果有任何問題，歡迎繼續留言，也可以諮詢我的同事們，他們會為大家詳細解答。確實隔了挺久沒做了，今 天時間稍微空閒一些，就抽點時間和大家看看市場情況，分享一下相關的窩輪產品資訊。 好啦，言歸正傳，我們還是從個股開始講起。第一只想和大家看的是2238廣汽集團。和往常一樣，我講的股票未必是主流股票，也不一定是大家平時經常聽 到的科技股或者熱門板塊。我們講這些個股，主要是作為例子，看看目前市場上窩輪或牛熊證產品的情況，以及投資者的心態，給大家做一些參考分享。 第一只個股：廣汽集團（02238），說實話股價表現真的不錯。就日線圖來看，近三四天的漲幅不小，過去5天正股的波動也很大，5日平均波幅超過了 20%。如果正股波幅超過20%，對應的窩輪漲幅其實可以更理想。所以像廣汽集團這樣的情況，認購證會相對多一些，認沽證則相對少一些。如果能合理部 署，看漲的認購證漲幅應該會很不錯。從走勢來看，廣汽集團前兩天漲幅較大，今天繼續延續升勢，盤中高位曾達到4 ...