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小米深度超賣後的技術反轉契機
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-24 20:19
小米股價近期經歷深度調整後,在38.4元水平初現企穩跡象,反彈0.84%雖不算強勁,卻可能預示著技術修復的開始。令人矚目的是,該股五日振幅高達 16.2%,技術指標層面呈現出罕見的強烈看漲信號。技術指標總結給出「強力買入」評級,信號強度達到13,是多日來少見的明確看漲格局。 RSI數值19已進入嚴重超賣區域,威廉指標顯示超賣狀態並發出買入信號,隨機震盪指標同樣給出買入信號,而變動率指標更明確指出「嚴重超跌,可能築 底」的技術特徵。儘管MACD與保力加通道仍維持賣出信號,但多個關鍵指標的一致性買入信號,是否足以讓您考慮在此位置進行左側布局? 關鍵價位分析顯示,小米目前首要挑戰41.6元的初步阻力,突破後下一目標看向45.1元。下行保護方面,35.8元構成近期重要支撐,若意外失守,下一防線 位於33元整數關卡。當前股價與移動平均線的關係透露出深度調整格局,股價明顯低於MA10的41.22元、MA30的44.43元及MA60的49.76元,這種大幅偏離 均線系統的狀態,從歷史經驗來看,往往蘊含著較大的技術修復空間。 從窩輪市場的近期表現觀察,熊證產品在下跌過程中展現了良好的收益表現。回顧近期數據,法興熊證64595 ...
11月12日【輪證短評】地平線機械人、南方航空、協鑫科技、中國中免
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-13 03:38
Group 1: Horizon Robotics (09660) - Horizon Robotics has experienced a significant decline, with a recent high of 11.32 HKD and a low of 8.03 HKD, closing at 8.33 HKD today. Investors remain optimistic about the stock's potential to break through 11.32 HKD [1] - Currently, there are no related warrants available in the market, only two call options with substantial out-of-the-money margins. Investors may need to wait for more closely priced products to be issued [1] - If investors are optimistic about the stock, they should consider monitoring the stock itself rather than relying on warrants, which may decline significantly if the stock does not rise or remains stagnant [1] Group 2: China Southern Airlines (01055) - China Southern Airlines has shown a strong upward trend, but trading volume has started to weaken, indicating potential fatigue in the stock's performance [2] - Investors are still optimistic, believing the stock could reach 6 HKD or even 6.3 HKD, although the immediate resistance level is around 5.43 HKD [2] - There are limited warrant products available for this stock, with one at an exercise price of 4.88 HKD and another upcoming at 6.66 HKD, making investor choices quite limited [4] Group 3: GCL-Poly Energy (03800) - GCL-Poly Energy's stock price has not performed well, dropping to a low of 1.25 HKD and closing at 1.32 HKD, with significant trading volume during the decline [4] - Despite the downturn, investors remain confident that the stock could rebound above 1.5 HKD, needing to first break the resistance at 1.45 HKD [4] - There are several warrant options available, with some having favorable terms, including three products expiring in March with exercise prices around 1.68 HKD to 1.69 HKD [7] Group 4: China Duty Free Group (01880) - China Duty Free Group's stock has shown volatility, recently reaching a high before closing at 78.9 HKD, with some investors still seeing potential for upward movement [8] - There are multiple warrant options available at exercise prices around 79 HKD and 80 HKD, with one product showing a leverage advantage of 3.5 times and a low implied volatility of 64.8% [8] - The market for warrants related to this stock is competitive, with various products available, indicating a healthy interest from issuers despite the stock being less frequently mentioned [8]
電動車狂潮再起?小鵬單日暴漲15%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-12 08:22
Group 1 - The electric vehicle sector in Hong Kong is experiencing significant activity, with XPeng Motors (09868) seeing a remarkable single-day increase of 15.65%, pushing its stock price above 106.5 HKD and achieving a trading volume of 6.784 billion HKD, marking a recent high [1] - Technical analysis indicates that XPeng Motors is at a critical breakout point, with solid support levels at 94 HKD and 89 HKD, while resistance levels are at 118.3 HKD and 121.6 HKD. The stock has successfully surpassed all major moving averages, suggesting potential for further upward movement [1] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 68, nearing overbought territory, indicating a possibility of short-term technical adjustments [1] Group 2 - In the derivatives market, XPeng-related warrants and bull-bear certificates have shown impressive performance, with the Societe Generale bull certificate (59945) recording a staggering 116% increase over two days, while the UBS bull certificate (62721) surged by 120% [3] - Call options such as the Macquarie call option (18196) rose by 69%, and the Credit Suisse call option (17575) increased by 60%, highlighting the significant profit potential of derivative products in trending markets [3] Group 3 - For investors optimistic about the market, several products are worth examining, including the Morgan Stanley call option (16074) which offers a leverage of 5.4 times, making it suitable for those seeking high leverage with low premiums [6] - The Morgan Stanley call option (17198) provides a leverage of 4.7 times with an exercise price set at 118.78 HKD, appealing to conservative investors [6] - The Societe Generale bull certificate (66877) offers a practical leverage of 4.6 times with a recovery price at 85.8 HKD, providing a safety margin of about 19% from the current price, making it a good choice for risk-conscious investors [6] Group 4 - Despite the bullish indicators, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of the recent price surge, as momentum oscillators show signs of divergence, suggesting a potential short-term correction [8] - The Bollinger Bands indicate that the stock price is approaching the upper band, which typically signals potential short-term pressure [8] - Investors are encouraged to consider their trading strategies in light of the recent volatility, weighing the options of chasing strength versus waiting for a pullback [8]
11月7日【港股Podcast】恆指、華虹半導體 、中海油 、嗶哩嗶哩、中國移動 、贛鋒鋰業
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-09 20:29
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a slight decline, closing at 26,241 points, which is a minor drop of less than 1% after a significant rise the previous day [1][2] - Technical signals indicate a majority "sell" signal, with support around 25,700 points and resistance at approximately 26,700 points, suggesting a potential trading range of about 1,000 points [2] - Investors are advised to choose safer products with recovery prices further from the current levels, such as 25,600 or 25,500 for bullish options, and above 26,700 for bearish options [2] Group 2 - Semiconductor company Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) showed a slight price drop, closing at 79.45 HKD, with support at around 73 HKD and resistance at 87.5 HKD [6] - Technical signals for Hua Hong indicate a slight majority of "buy" signals, with 8 buy signals compared to 6 sell signals [6][10] - CNOOC (00883.HK) is experiencing an upward trend, closing at 21.18 HKD, with resistance at 21.6 HKD and potential for further gains if it breaks this level [12][16] Group 3 - Bilibili (09626.HK) is showing weak performance, closing at 216 HKD, with potential further declines to 205 HKD if the downward trend continues [18] - China Mobile (00941.HK) is performing well, closing at 87.15 HKD, close to the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 88.1 HKD [19][22] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) closed at 52.7 HKD, near the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 55.9 HKD and a prevailing "sell" signal in the market [24][27]
11月6日【港股Podcast】恆指、騰訊控股、中芯國際、匯豐控股、紫金礦業 、比亞迪股份
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-07 08:17
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose to 26,485 points, showing a significant increase, but trading volume did not see a corresponding rise, which is a point of concern for investors [1][2] - Investors are speculating that the index could reach 26,700 points, as there are concerns about the potential recall of bear certificates in that range [2] - Some investors are betting on a market correction due to the recent gains, purchasing bear certificates close to the recall price, which poses a risk of being recalled easily [3][4] Group 2: Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) - Tencent's stock price increased to 644 HKD, aligning with the overall market trend, but investor sentiment is polarized with some waiting for a drop to 620 HKD [11][12] - The technical signals for Tencent are currently neutral, indicating no clear trend direction, with resistance levels at 661 HKD and 683 HKD for potential upward movement [12] - Investors are advised to choose call options with exercise prices closer to the current market price to mitigate risks associated with distant exercise prices [12] Group 3: SMIC (00981.HK) - SMIC's stock price rose to 76.95 HKD, with increased trading volume indicating positive market sentiment [19] - Investors are considering bull certificates with a recall price of 66 HKD, which offers a safety cushion with support levels at 71.4 HKD and 66.9 HKD [19] Group 4: HSBC Holdings (00005.HK) - HSBC's stock price reached 110 HKD, nearing previous highs, with a notable increase in trading volume [25] - Current technical signals indicate a predominance of sell signals, suggesting a potential for short-term correction after breaking the upper Bollinger Band [25] - Resistance levels are identified at 114.1 HKD and 118.2 HKD, while support levels are at 106.2 HKD and 102 HKD [25] Group 5: Zijin Mining (02899.HK) - Zijin Mining's stock price is at 32.06 HKD, approaching the middle line of the Bollinger Band, with resistance at 33.9 HKD [32] Group 6: BYD Company (01211.HK) - BYD's stock price has rebounded to 97.65 HKD after a period of decline, with a strong buy signal in the short term [34] - The resistance level is at 103.3 HKD, and if broken, the price could rise to 108.3 HKD, while support is at 93.1 HKD [35]
11月5日【港股Podcast】恆指、美團、網易、寧德時代、兗礦能源、蜜雪集團
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-06 13:21
Group 1: Hang Seng Index - The Hang Seng Index showed a slight increase but with disappointing performance overall, with a trading volume that continued to decrease [1] - Technical signals for the Hang Seng Index are predominantly "buy," with four buy signals and fewer sell signals, indicating a slight bullish sentiment in the short term [1] - Support levels are estimated around 25326 points, close to the mentioned 25400 points, while resistance is around 26400 points [1] Group 2: Meituan-W (03690.HK) - Meituan's closing price is 101.2 HKD, having returned above 100 HKD, but the stock has been relatively stable with a significant decline from previous highs of around 186 HKD [3] - The potential support level is around 97.1 HKD, and if it falls below 97 HKD, it could drop to 92 HKD or even 88 HKD based on Bollinger Bands calculations [3] Group 3: NetEase-S (09999.HK) - NetEase closed at 217.4 HKD, having reached a high of 248 HKD, and is currently holding above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [4] - The resistance level is calculated at 227 HKD, and if this is surpassed, it could rise to 237 HKD, indicating a potential upward movement of about 10 HKD [4] Group 4: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (03750.HK) - The stock price of Contemporary Amperex is currently at 547.5 HKD, fluctuating within a narrow range of 530-580 HKD [5] - Technical signals are neutral, suggesting a lack of clear direction, and investors are advised to wait for clearer trends before making decisions [5] Group 5: Yancoal Energy (01171.HK) - Yancoal Energy's closing price is 11.38 HKD, with a resistance level at 11.8 HKD, and if this is broken, it could rise to 12.2 HKD [7] - There is a possibility of the stock dropping back to around 10 HKD, with a support level at 10.08 HKD [7] Group 6: Mixue Group (02097.HK) - Mixue Group's closing price is 400.6 HKD, with a resistance level at 428 HKD, indicating potential for a rise above 420 HKD [8] - The technical signals are predominantly "buy," with 11 buy signals compared to 4 sell signals, suggesting a favorable outlook [8]
11月3日【輪證短評】小鵬汽車、金沙中國、港交所、工商銀行
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-04 20:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the performance and investment opportunities related to various stocks, particularly focusing on options and warrants associated with these stocks [3][4][10] - The first stock analyzed is XPeng Motors (09868), which has shown a price increase, closing at 92 HKD, with potential resistance levels at 95.1 HKD and 99.7 HKD [3][4] - The article highlights four warrant products with exercise prices between 60 HKD and 61 HKD, noting their leverage ratios ranging from 3.3x to 3.5x, making them suitable for investors [4][5] Group 2 - The second stock discussed is Sands China (01928), which experienced a decline, closing at 19.95 HKD, but with increased trading volume, prompting interest in call options [10][11] - There is limited choice for January expiration products, leading to a recommendation for looking at April expiration products, which offer various types of options with leverage around 4x [11][12] - The article emphasizes the importance of comparing product terms, as even slight differences in leverage and implied volatility can significantly impact investment decisions [12][13] Group 3 - The third stock is Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388), which saw a price increase to 428.8 HKD, with a suggested support level at 417 HKD [16][17] - The article recommends selecting bull certificates with a redemption price below 412 HKD for safety, as they are less likely to be triggered compared to those closer to the current price [17][18] - It notes that the premium differences among these products can be significant, urging investors to carefully evaluate product terms [18] Group 4 - The fourth stock analyzed is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398), which has shown a price increase to 6.17 HKD, with a resistance level at 6.2 HKD [21][22] - There are three put options available for January expiration, all being out-of-the-money, with exercise prices around 5.22 HKD [22][23] - The article stresses that while there are options available, none have a clear advantage, and investors should consider the bid-ask spread and the ability of these put options to respond to declines in the underlying stock [23]
11月4日【輪證短評】贛鋒鋰業、招商銀行、洛陽鉬業、華虹半導體
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-04 19:16
Group 1: Ganfeng Lithium (01772) - Ganfeng Lithium's stock price has been declining for three consecutive days, currently at 47.5 HKD, close to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [1] - Investors speculate that the stock may drop further to around 41 HKD, with a support level at approximately 43.5 HKD; if it breaks this level, it could fall to about 37.6 HKD [1] - Some investors are optimistic about its future performance and are considering purchasing relatively priced call options [1] Group 2: China Merchants Bank (03968) - China Merchants Bank's stock has risen for three consecutive days, currently at 50.9 HKD, with increased trading volume [4] - There are options available with a strike price of 59 HKD, which is over 10% out of the money; it may take time for the stock to reach this level [4][5] - The available products show significant differences in leverage, with some having a leverage of 8.2 times and others up to 11 times [5][6] Group 3: Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price has dropped for three days, currently at 15.45 HKD, with expectations of further decline [7] - Investors are advised to wait for the stock to reach a support level of around 14.5 HKD before considering buying [7] - There are options available with strike prices around 14.88 HKD, with leverage ranging from 3.3 to 3.6 times [7][8] Group 4: Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) - Hua Hong Semiconductor's stock price has slightly decreased to 75.8 HKD, with a bearish outlook from investors [9] - There are options available with strike prices closer to the current market price, around 69 to 70 HKD, with leverage of approximately 2.3 times [10] - Investors are cautioned against options with strike prices too far from the current price, as they may not track the stock effectively [10]
10月31日【港股Podcast】恆指、友邦保險、中移動、中國生物制藥、百度、騰訊
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-03 03:33
Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has shown a bearish sentiment, with some investors predicting a drop to 25,800 points, while others are looking at call options with a strike price of 28,743 points [1][2] - The HSI closed at approximately 25,906 points, indicating a significant decline, and the support level is around 25,500 points, with a potential drop to 25,000 points if this level is breached [1][2] Group 2: AIA Group (01299.HK) - AIA Group's stock price increased today, reaching a high of 76.8 HKD, with a closing price of around 75.45 HKD, and investors are optimistic about it surpassing 77 HKD, potentially reaching 90 HKD in the long term [8] - The resistance level for AIA Group is at 78.7 HKD, and if it breaks this level, it could rise to 80.3 HKD [8] Group 3: China Mobile (00941.HK) - China Mobile's stock price experienced a decline, closing at 85.25 HKD, with a support level at 82.1 HKD, and a potential drop to 78.8 HKD if this level is broken [11][12] - Investors are considering call options with a strike price of 99.4 HKD, expiring in December, but there are concerns about time decay due to the short duration [12] Group 4: China Biologic Products (01177.HK) - The stock price of China Biologic Products has been relatively stable, closing at 7.07 HKD after a low of 6.74 HKD, with a support level at 6.73 HKD [18] - There are currently more buy signals (9) than sell signals (6), indicating a potential buying opportunity [18] Group 5: Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) - Baidu's stock price closed at 117.6 HKD, with a support level at 113.4 HKD, and a potential drop to 108.8 HKD if this level is breached [20] - Investors are considering put options due to the significant decline in trading volume [20] Group 6: Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) - Tencent's stock price closed at 629 HKD, with a support level at 613 HKD, and a potential drop to 591 HKD if it falls below this level [27] - Investors are advised to choose options with strike prices close to the current price to avoid issues with price tracking [27][28]
匯豐短線衝刺!技術信號轉強如何部署?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-30 21:14
Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings has shown notable upward momentum after breaking through key resistance levels, with a recent price increase of 2.16% to 108.8 HKD, attracting significant market attention [1] Technical Analysis - HSBC is at a critical decision point regarding its short-term price movement, with mixed signals from various technical indicators [1] - Short-term key support is identified at 102.6 HKD, with strong support at 98.4 HKD; on the upside, a breakthrough of 110.5 HKD could lead to a challenge of the higher target at 114.6 HKD [3] - The probability of a short-term price increase for HSBC is estimated at 55%, with a daily average volatility of 5%, providing ample room for short-term trading [3] Derivative Products - The market offers a variety of attractive options for structured products, with notable performance from bull certificates during recent price increases [3] - UBS call options (18901) offer a leverage of 18.8 times with a strike price of 118.88 HKD, appealing to aggressive investors seeking cost efficiency [5] - For conservative investors, the Bank of China call option (19105) provides a leverage of 16.6 times with a relatively low implied volatility [5] Market Sentiment - HSBC's performance as a blue-chip stock often influences the broader market direction, with multiple indicators suggesting continued upward movement [10]