Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the sectors are as follows: Sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is rated as "volatile"; Red dates in the same sector are rated as "volatile and slightly weak"; Rubber series in the energy and chemical sector are rated as "volatile", with natural rubber and synthetic rubber having different specific trends [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - Sugar market is affected by factors such as global production forecasts and domestic production and sales data. Currently, Zhengzhou sugar is at the lower edge of the volatile range, and short - term trading information is limited. Attention should be paid to Brazilian and domestic data [1] - After the Dragon Boat Festival stocking atmosphere fades, the red date market's trading enthusiasm declines. The downstream consumption will enter the off - season, and the inventory pressure will suppress the price. Focus on the growth of jujube trees in the main producing areas [3] - Natural rubber is affected by high inventory and increasing raw material supply, with limited upward drivers and likely to be in low - level volatility. Synthetic rubber lacks obvious positive factors and may run weakly due to falling raw material prices [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: SR509 closed at 5835 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.03%, and SR601 closed at 5699 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11% [1] - **Important Information**: Global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million tons. Domestic sugar prices in different regions have adjusted, and the port's waiting - to - ship sugar quantity has decreased [1] - **Market Logic**: External markets were closed yesterday. Zhengzhou sugar weakened at night after a small rebound. It is at the lower edge of the volatile range, and there may be new downward impetus [1] - **Trading Strategy**: For SR509, pay attention to the support at 5800 today. If the support is effective, short - term investors can try intraday long positions [1] Red Dates - **Market Review**: CJ509 closed at 9000 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.22%, and CJ601 closed at 9920 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.10% [3] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week increased by 0.76% week - on - week and 67.60% year - on - year. Market prices in different regions were stable over the weekend [3] - **Market Logic**: The main red date contract traded sideways. After the stocking for the Dragon Boat Festival, the market's trading enthusiasm declined. The inventory pressure will suppress the price [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support at 8950. If it is broken, look for support in the 8800 - 8850 range. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [3] Rubber Series - **Market Review**: RU2509 closed at 14400 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.93%, NR2507 closed at 12645 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16%, and BR2507 closed at 11545 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.74% [4] - **Important Information**: Thai raw material prices, domestic rubber prices, tire enterprise capacity utilization rates, and Qingdao's rubber inventory data are provided [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber continued to be volatile and weak with resistance to decline. Synthetic rubber fell again and then stabilized at the support level. Raw material prices fell, and the market atmosphere was weak [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For RU, pay attention to the 14300 - 14330 support area; for NR, focus on the 12500 - 12880 volatile range; for BR, consider stopping losses on short positions and pay attention to the 11500 - 11550 support [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Soda Ash, Glass Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: May 26 - May 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Soda ash futures are in a volatile phase. The overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly, with supply still in excess. The price is expected to remain volatile and weak, and the overall trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the operating load of the soda ash industry decreased, and some enterprises entered maintenance, while some previously maintained devices resumed operation. The industry operating rate remained around 80%. The demand side was continuously weak, and downstream enterprises mainly had rigid demand. The inventory, although slightly decreased, was still at a high level [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Due to enterprise maintenance, supply decreased last week, and the spot price was stable with the support of enterprise backlogs. Demand was stable, downstream restocked as needed, consumption and operation were stable, export sentiment improved, and some enterprises' order volumes increased. A 500 - ton production line of float glass was planned to be ignited, and photovoltaic remained stable. It was expected that SA2509 would operate in the range of 1250 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Some soda ash enterprises entered maintenance last week, and some previously maintained devices resumed operation. The demand side was continuously weak, and the supply - demand pattern did not improve significantly. The inventory was still at a high level. It was expected that the soda ash futures price would remain volatile and weak. SA2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1250 - 1400, and it was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [11]. 3. Relevant Data - Data Included: Soda ash operating rate (weekly in China), production (weekly in China), light and heavy - quality inventory (weekly in China), basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly) [12][16][18] - Market Indicators: The long - short flow was - 52.3, indicating a bearish tendency of the main force; the capital energy was 90.5, indicating a rapid influx of main - force funds; the long - short divergence was 91.3, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [22] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Glass is in a volatile trend. The supply - demand fundamentals of weak supply and demand are difficult to change in the short term, and it is expected to fluctuate this week [30]. - Trend Logic: Last week, float glass showed a weak and volatile trend. The prices in South China and Northwest China remained stable, while prices in other regions generally decreased. The supply was relatively stable, but the terminal demand was weak, and processing enterprises mainly purchased as needed. The demand for architectural glass was weak, and although the deep - processing orders improved slightly month - on - month, they were still weak year - on - year [30]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [30]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The spot price of domestic float glass decreased last week, with regional differentiation. Most prices declined due to weak transactions, and a few increased due to reduced production. There was a production line ignition this week, and new production capacity was released, so production might increase. Downstream orders were differentiated, and purchases were mainly based on rigid demand. The inventory of original sheets was at a high level in the same period, and enterprises mainly aimed to reduce inventory. It was expected that glass would fluctuate this week, and FG2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1000 - 1200. It was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [33]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Float glass showed a weak and volatile trend last week. The prices in South China and Northwest China remained stable, while prices in other regions generally decreased. The supply was stable, but the terminal demand was weak, and processing enterprises purchased as needed. The demand for architectural glass was weak, and although the deep - processing orders improved slightly month - on - month, they were still weak year - on - year. The supply - demand fundamentals of weak supply and demand were difficult to change in the short term. It was expected that glass would fluctuate this week, and FG2509 was expected to operate in the range of 1000 - 1200. It was advisable to wait and see with an empty position [34]. 3. Relevant Data - Data Included: Float glass production (weekly in China), operating rate (weekly in China), production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel (weekly in China), basis (daily), and ending inventory (weekly in China) [35][41][43] - Market Indicators: The long - short flow was - 17.3, indicating an unclear tendency of the main force; the capital energy was 52.9, indicating a relatively large inflow of funds; the long - short divergence was 95.8, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [48]

国投安信期货指出，北方某大型钢厂招标定价环比下调100至5850元/吨。从预计到港数据来看， South32澳矿将会在本月底到港五万吨左右。铁水产量维持高位，硅锰供应继续下行，整体库存水平未 见下行，对价格持续构成压制。锰矿库存开启趋势性累增，建议反弹做空为主，价格依旧受到关税影 响，持续关注关税动向。 五矿期货表示，锰硅当前价格向右摆脱今年2月份以来的下降趋势后维持震荡，横移偏弱，我们仍旧认 为该位置直接起V型反转，继续大幅向上的概率不大，继续关注上方5900元/吨压力及下方低点5550元/ 吨附近的支撑情况（针对加权指数），若向上突破，则进而观察6000元/吨一线压力。操作上，单边仍 认为缺乏交易性价比，依旧建议观望为主。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，宏观面，3年、5年定期存款利率均下调了25个基点，分别下调至1.30%、 1.35%。供应端生产亏损，现货生产积极性不高，成本端，本期原料端进口锰矿石港口库存回升+23.1万 吨，后续来看，5月锰矿整体到港数量预计环比增加，下游铁水产量有见顶回落迹象，谨防需求回落后 价格波动变大。利润方面，内蒙古现货利润-180元/吨；宁夏现货利润-290元/吨。市场方 ...

行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 22 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员 ...

【冠通研究】 行情盘整，波动幅度较小 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 20 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日高开高走日内震荡上行。上游工厂报价趋于稳定，新单成交不顺， 前期待发充足下，暂时无价格下行风险。行情目前反映基本面波动情况，供应端， 本周产量继续维持 20 万吨日产波动，出口政策下，出口时间为第一阶段 2025 年 5-7 月，第二阶段 2025 年 8-9 月，所有出口业务须于 2025 年 10 月 15 日前完成 报关手续；实行产地法检制度；需求端，下游观望情绪浓厚，农业经销商目前备 肥谨慎，暂时未到集中备肥阶段。复合肥工厂端口，目前处于夏季肥生产阶段， 开工率回升，成品终端走货顺畅，预计夏季肥需求阶段后，将开工率有所下滑。 库存端口本期大幅去化，产量下降而需求增加外，市场对出口消息反映下，港口 库存也小幅增加，但为避免提前集港，将进行厂检。整体来说，目前盘面情绪以 基本面波动为主，正值需求旺季，市场中短期依然震荡偏多，注意后续出口问题 带来的价格波动风险。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1848 元/吨高开高走，日内翻红，最终收于 1849 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅 0.11 ...

Morning session notice 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 5 月 20 日星期二 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 早盘提示 | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 CJ509 合约收盘价 9025 元/吨，日跌幅 0.72%。CJ601 合约收盘价 9950 元/吨， 日跌幅 0.75%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 10588 吨，较上周减少 92 吨，环比减少 0.86%，同 比增加 60.42%。 2.周末河北崔尔庄市场停车区到货 30 车，成品到货占比增多，昨日到货 8 车，客商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 按需采购成交在 4-5 成附近。参考特级 9.2 元/公斤，一级 8.3 元/公斤，二级 7.2 元/公斤，三级 6.1 元/公斤。 3.昨日广东如意坊市场到 6 车，早市成交 1 车左右。参考一级 8.90-9.10 元/公斤； | | | | | 二级 8.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis (including the use of the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average), the report predicts the trend of today's (May 13, 2025) futures main contracts. It is expected that stock index futures will oscillate with a strong bias, while gold, silver, copper, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures will oscillate with a weak bias. Rebar, iron ore, aluminum, tin, hot - rolled coil, soybean meal, cotton, and container shipping index (European line) futures will oscillate with a strong bias. Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures will likely oscillate with a weak bias [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - The joint statement of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs accordingly. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China also suspended or cancelled non - tariff counter - measures against the US. Both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [7]. - China launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals for export and will organize a series of actions in the near future. The meeting on strengthening the full - chain control of strategic mineral exports pointed out that export control of strategic minerals is crucial for national security and development interests [7]. - The Ministry of Commerce will work with relevant departments to provide more support for foreign - trade enterprises, help them expand markets, and promote the stable development of foreign trade [8]. - The State Council Information Office released China's first white paper on national security, demonstrating China's determination to safeguard national interests [8]. - The central bank and other departments issued the "30 Measures for Nansha Finance" to strengthen financial support for the construction of Nansha [8]. - US President Trump signed an executive order requiring pharmaceutical manufacturers to lower drug prices, but analysts believe it is difficult to implement [8]. - The Fed's governor Kugler believes that Trump's tariff policy may push up inflation and drag down economic growth. The European Central Bank is cautious about future interest - rate actions due to policy uncertainty [9]. - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru stated that Japan will not accept a preliminary trade agreement without automobile tariffs. The Japanese government is ready to take additional stimulus measures [9]. - Goldman Sachs adjusted the expected time of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to December and raised the forecast of the US economic growth rate in Q4 2025 [9]. 2. Commodity Futures Information - Most domestic commodity futures closed higher at night. Energy and chemical products generally rose, with styrene up 3.05%, butadiene rubber up 2.69%, etc. Some agricultural products and basic metals also had different trends [11]. - On May 12, international oil prices strengthened, with US crude oil up 1.54% and Brent crude up 1.63%. International precious - metal futures generally closed lower, and London's basic metals showed mixed trends. Chicago's agricultural - product futures also had different closing results [12]. - The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced that the purchase of autumn grain in 2024 was completed, with a total purchase of 3.45 billion tons [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On May 12, the main contracts of stock index futures, such as IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, and IM2506, generally opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected that stock index futures will oscillate with a strong bias, with specific resistance and support levels provided [13][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On May 12, the main contracts of ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures opened lower, oscillated downward, and closed lower. On May 13, they are expected to oscillate with a weak bias and test support levels [38][43]. Gold Futures - On May 12, the main contract of gold futures opened slightly higher, oscillated downward, and closed lower. From May 6 to May 12, the continuous main contract of domestic gold futures rebounded but was blocked. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a weak bias and test support levels [43]. Silver Futures - On May 12, the main contract of silver futures opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, the new main contract AG2508 is expected to oscillate with a weak bias and test support levels [51]. Copper Futures - On May 12, the main contract of copper futures opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a weak bias and test support levels [55]. Aluminum Futures - On May 12, the main contract of aluminum futures opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, with specific resistance and support levels provided [59]. Alumina Futures - On May 12, the main contract of alumina futures opened slightly lower, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with specific resistance and support levels provided [63]. Zinc Futures - On May 12, the main contract of zinc futures opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a weak bias and test support levels [67]. Nickel Futures - On May 12, the main contract of nickel futures opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a weak bias and test support levels [75]. Tin Futures - On May 12, the main contract of tin futures opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a strong bias and attack resistance levels [80]. Rebar Futures - On May 12, the main contract of rebar futures opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, with specific resistance and support levels provided [85]. Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - On May 12, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, with specific resistance and support levels provided [89]. Iron Ore Futures - On May 12, the main contract of iron ore futures opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, with specific resistance and support levels provided [92]. Coking Coal Futures - On May 12, the main contract of coking coal futures opened slightly lower, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a weak bias and test support levels [96]. Glass Futures - On May 12, the main contract of glass futures opened flat, oscillated upward, and closed with a slight decline. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a weak bias and test support levels [98]. Soda Ash Futures - On May 12, the main contract of soda ash futures opened slightly lower, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a weak bias and test support levels [101]. Soybean Meal Futures - On May 12, the main contract of soybean meal futures opened slightly higher, oscillated upward, and closed with a slight decline. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a strong bias and attack resistance levels [103]. Cotton Futures - On May 12, the main contract of cotton futures opened slightly lower, oscillated upward, and closed higher. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate with a strong bias and accumulate strength to attack resistance levels [104]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures - On May 12, the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures opened with a gap up, oscillated upward, and closed at the daily limit. On May 13, it is expected to oscillate widely with a strong bias, with specific resistance and support levels provided [107].

2025.05.12-05.16 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期部分企业开始检修，后续有企业检修，整体供应呈现下降趋势， 预计本周产量68+万吨，开工80+%左右。企业待发尚可，产销维持， 价格相对稳定态势。纯碱需求一般，低价成交为主，消费正常，开 工变化小。据了解，出口波动不大，相对稳健，有反馈好转。上周， 浮法日熔量15.55万吨，环比减少2100吨，光伏日熔量9.88万吨， 环比减少600吨。本周，浮法及光伏日熔量稳定。 综上所述，供应下降需求支撑，短期纯碱走势止跌维稳，价格坚挺。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 主力合约SA2509上周先抑后扬。上周纯碱产量75.51万吨，开 工率微降，装置检修致局部减量，新产能释放抵消影响。4 月30日库存降但处近五年同期最高。浮法玻璃日熔量降、光 伏玻璃升，重碱需求边际企稳，轻碱下游弱，预计纯碱走势 震荡运行，预期运行区间1250-1400，可考虑空 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the market trends of various futures on May 9, 2025. It also presents the market performance of these futures on May 8, 2025, and provides an outlook for the market trends in May 2025 [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - China and Russia signed a joint statement to deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership, with leaders witnessing the exchange of over 20 bilateral cooperation texts [8]. - China's Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US economic and trade talks, stating that the US should correct wrong practices and cancel unilateral tariffs [8]. - Multiple departments interpreted the Private Economy Promotion Law, with the National Development and Reform Commission accelerating the improvement of a long - term mechanism for private enterprises to participate in major national projects, and about 3 trillion yuan of high - quality projects to be launched in key areas this year [8]. - The cross - strait integration development demonstration area inter - ministerial and provincial working meeting was held in Fuzhou [8]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.75% [9]. - The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with the US reducing tariffs on UK - made cars to 10% and on steel and aluminum to zero, and negotiations on a digital trade agreement to be launched [9]. - The EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and sued the US at the WTO over its tariff policies [9]. - The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, but there were internal differences [9]. - The US is to start legislative work on a large - scale tax cut plan next week [10]. - The US and Ukraine reached a rare - earth agreement [10]. - The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates if the economy meets expectations [10]. - US initial jobless claims decreased by 13,000 to 228,000 last week, and continuing claims decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than expected. However, the labor market may deteriorate under tariff threats [10]. - US labor productivity decreased by 0.8% annually in the first quarter, and unit labor costs jumped by 5.7% [10]. 2. Commodity Futures - related Information - Most domestic commodity futures closed higher at night on May 8, with energy and chemical products generally rising and black series falling across the board [11]. - International oil prices rose sharply on May 8, with US crude oil up 3.81% and Brent crude up 3.40% [11]. - International precious metal futures generally closed lower on May 8, with COMEX gold down 2.40% and COMEX silver down 0.57% [12]. - Most Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures closed lower on May 8 [12]. - Most London base metals closed higher on May 8 [12]. - Kazakhstan has no plan to cut oil production in May, with its output expected to reach 2 million barrels per day [13]. - The US and Russia held talks on assisting Russia in resuming natural gas exports to Europe [13]. - On May 8, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 101 basis points, and the central parity rate was down 68 basis points [13]. - The US dollar index fell 0.73% on May 8, and most non - US currencies fell [14]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On May 8, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures all opened slightly lower, then fluctuated upwards. They are expected to be strongly volatile on May 9, and strongly and widely volatile in May 2025 [14][15][16][19][20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On May 8, the main contract of the 10 - year treasury bond futures opened slightly higher, fluctuated upwards strongly, and is expected to be widely volatile on May 9. The 30 - year treasury bond futures also opened slightly higher, fluctuated upwards, and are expected to be widely volatile on May 9 [35][37]. 3.3 Gold Futures - On May 8, the main contract of gold futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated downwards, and is expected to be weakly volatile on May 9, and strongly and widely volatile in May 2025 [40][41]. 3.4 Silver Futures - On May 8, the main contract of silver futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated downwards weakly, and is expected to be strongly volatile on May 9, and strongly and widely volatile in May 2025 [47][48]. 3.5 Copper Futures - On May 8, the main contract of copper futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated downwards, and is expected to be strongly volatile on May 9, and widely volatile in May 2025 [53]. 3.6 Aluminum Futures - On May 8, the main contract of aluminum futures opened flat, fluctuated slightly upwards, and is expected to be strongly volatile on May 9, and weakly and widely volatile in May 2025 [58]. 3.7 Alumina Futures - On May 8, the main contract of alumina futures opened slightly higher, fluctuated upwards strongly, and is expected to be strongly volatile on May 9, and widely volatile in May 2025 [62]. 3.8 Zinc Futures - On May 8, the main contract of zinc futures opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly downwards, and is expected to be strongly volatile on May 9, and weakly and widely volatile in May 2025 [67]. 3.9 Nickel Futures - On May 8, the main contract of nickel futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated downwards, and is expected to be strongly volatile on May 9, and weakly and widely volatile in May 2025 [71]. 3.10 Rebar Futures - On May 8, the main contract of rebar futures opened slightly higher, fluctuated downwards, and is expected to be weakly volatile on May 9, and weakly and widely volatile in May 2025 [75][76]. 3.11 Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - On May 8, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures opened slightly higher, fluctuated downwards, and is expected to be weakly volatile on May 9 [79]. 3.12 Iron Ore Futures - On May 8, the main contract of iron ore futures opened slightly higher, fluctuated downwards weakly, and is expected to be widely volatile on May 9, and weakly and widely volatile in May 2025 [80][81]. 3.13 Coking Coal Futures - On May 8, the main contract of coking coal futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated downwards, and is expected to be weakly volatile on May 9 [84]. 3.14 Glass Futures - On May 8, the main contract of glass futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated downwards, and is expected to be weakly volatile on May 9 [86]. 3.15 Soda Ash Futures - On May 8, the main contract of soda ash futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated and sorted out, and is expected to be weakly volatile on May 9 [88]. 3.16 Crude Oil Futures - On May 8, the main contract of crude oil futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated downwards, and is expected to be strongly volatile on May 9, and weakly and widely volatile in May 2025 [90]. 3.17 Fuel Oil Futures - On May 8, the main contract of fuel oil futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated weakly, and is expected to be strongly volatile on May 9 [94][95]. 3.18 PTA Futures - On May 8, the main contract of PTA futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated upwards strongly, and is expected to be strongly volatile on May 9 [95]. 3.19 PVC Futures - On May 8, the main contract of PVC futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated downwards, and is expected to be weakly volatile on May 9 [98]. 3.20 Methanol Futures - On May 8, the main contract of methanol futures opened slightly lower, fluctuated downwards, and is expected to be strongly volatile on May 9 [100].

01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 2025.05.06-05.09 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 主 力 合 约 S A 2 5 0 9 上 周 呈 现 " 先 抑 后 扬 " 态 势 。 上 周 纯 碱 周 产 量 75.51万吨，开工率89.44%，环比微降0.06%。东北阜丰、天津碱 厂等装置检修导致局部供应减量，但远兴阿碱及金山新产能持续释 放，抵消检修影响。截至4月30日，全国库存总量679.67万吨，较 上周减少1.88万吨，但仍处近五年同期最高水平。浮法玻璃日熔量 1 5 . 7 8 万 吨 （ 环 比 - 0 . 4 4 % ） ， 光 伏 玻 璃 日 熔 量 9 . 7 3 万 吨 （ 环 比 +1.23%），重碱需求边际企稳但增量有限。轻碱下游开工率维持低 位，终端企业按需采购，贸易商囤货意愿不足。预计纯碱走势震荡 运行。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 近期纯碱装置检修少，供应高，五月上旬预计检修增产量降， 月 ...