Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply - side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, and the expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash cost, and production enthusiasm is frustrated. The demand - side is relatively weak, with downstream photovoltaic component production schedules reduced, silicon wafer enterprise self - discipline quotas lowered, and cell enterprises having production reduction plans. Terminal market has strong wait - and - see sentiment after the "rush to install" boom. The new photovoltaic installation policy since June 1st reduces the rate of return, and overseas market demand is uncertain due to macro - economic instability and international trade frictions. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing market prices. Long - term operation should focus on short - selling [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 33,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan; the 07 - 08 contract spread is 1,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the main contract position is 61,698 lots, an increase of 1,499 lots; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread is 26,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan; the basis is 2,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 7,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan; the spot price is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons; the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the total social inventory is 58.7 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, a decrease of 1,952 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 7,192.8 million kilowatts, a decrease of 651.6 million kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789.32 million pieces, a decrease of 11,583.8 million pieces; the monthly import volume is 20,120.44 million pieces, an increase of 10,274.32 million pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/piece [2]. Industry News - As of June 11th, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are stable. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9th and continued on June 10th [2].

绿电直连政策以制度创新"四应"国家大局 绿电直连是风、光、生物质等新能源通过直连线路向单一电力用户供给绿电，实现电量清晰物理溯 源的模式。国家发展改革委、国家能源局不循旧历，联合 印发《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事 项的通知》（以下简称《通知》） ，实现 "四应"，即呼应社会诉求、响应行业发展、回应系统安 全、顺应电力改革，以制度创新服务国家大局，助推新质生产力发展，凸显了国家发展改革委、国 家能源局的政治机关意识和服务型政府责任担当。 一、呼应社会诉求快速出台政策 为此，《通知》从四个方面对加强规划引领进行部署。 一是在项目建设上区分四种情形 ， 对存量 负荷、新增负荷、出口外向型企业、新能源消纳受限等情况，分门别类予以规范。特别是对具有自 备电厂的存量负荷，提出足额清缴可再生能源发展基金前提下的绿电直连实施路径。 二是在规划统 筹上强调 "三入" ， 即风光发电规模要计入省级新能源发电开发建设方案，项目建设方案要纳入省 级或城市的能源电力和国土空间规划，特殊情况接入 220（330）千伏电网的要纳入电力系统安全 风险专项评估范畴。 三是模式创新上强调三个明确 ， 主责单位明确，原则上由负荷作为绿电直连 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the establishment of a new electricity spot market system in Sichuan, emphasizing a model that integrates multiple power sources, optimizes all electricity volumes, and operates throughout all water periods, aiming to enhance supply security and promote renewable energy consumption [1][14]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The new electricity spot market system will be built on principles of safety, locality, and scientific connection, ensuring reliable power supply while optimizing energy resources and promoting a green energy transition [15]. - Key tasks include establishing a market mechanism that meets Sichuan's supply and consumption needs, enhancing the connection between long-term and spot markets, and developing supporting rules for market transactions and risk management [15][16]. Group 2: Market Participants - Market participants include various types of power generation companies, electricity users, electricity sales companies, and new operational entities such as distributed renewable energy, independent storage, and virtual power plants [2][17]. - Specific types of power generation companies involved are provincial hydropower, public coal-fired power, and centralized renewable energy, while gas and biomass plants are currently excluded [2][17]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanism - The initial pricing model will adopt a system marginal price mechanism, with plans to transition to zonal pricing by 2027 and subsequently to nodal pricing [3][19]. - The market will set a lower limit of 0 for the spot market in 2026, with upper limits based on coal-fired power marginal costs and peak user electricity prices [3][20]. Group 4: Market Operation - The market structure will include a "day-ahead pre-clearance without settlement, intra-day rolling optimization, and real-time clearance and settlement" approach, tailored to Sichuan's high hydropower proportion and variable water conditions [5][22]. - Participants will engage in the market through "quantity reporting and bidding" or as price takers, depending on their capabilities [6][22][23]. Group 5: Market Settlement - The settlement model will follow a "daily clearing and monthly settlement" approach, with daily calculations based on market clearance results and a monthly basis for issuing settlement documents [8][32]. - All electricity transactions will be settled at spot market prices, with long-term contracts subject to price difference settlements [8][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.92 CNY based on a 42x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to accelerate growth starting from Q1 2025, with a projected revenue of 550 million CNY for 2024, representing a 20.5% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of 93.59 million CNY, growing by 11.1% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue increase of 40.1% to 145 million CNY, with a net profit of 16.61 million CNY, up 34.6% [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the distributed power station business and effective cost control measures [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 456 million CNY in 2023 to 1.376 billion CNY by 2027, with respective year-over-year growth rates of 26.9%, 20.5%, 38.0%, 48.4%, and 22.2% [3][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 84 million CNY in 2023 to 305 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 25.6%, 11.1%, 61.5%, 57.7%, and 27.9% [3][12]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 67.6% in 2023 to 57.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve from 18.5% to 22.2% over the same period [3][12]. Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates revenue from various business segments, including 310 million CNY from power prediction products (+15.6%), 124 million CNY from grid control systems (+28.1%), and 52.49 million CNY from new energy management systems (+17.8%) [8]. - The Q1 2025 revenue growth is significantly influenced by the rapid increase in income from distributed photovoltaic power station power prediction products [8]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from favorable policies and the growing demand for distributed photovoltaic power station services, which will likely enhance its customer base and business growth in 2025 and 2026 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 52.92 CNY based on a 42x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to accelerate growth starting from Q1 2025, with a projected revenue of 550 million CNY for 2024, representing a 20.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 93.59 million CNY, up 11.1% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a significant revenue growth of 40.1% to 145 million CNY, with a net profit increase of 34.6% to 16.61 million CNY [1]. - The growth in distributed power station-related businesses and effective cost control have led to an upward revision of revenue growth expectations [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 456 million CNY in 2023 to 1.376 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.2% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 84 million CNY in 2023 to 305 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 27.9% [3]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline slightly from 67.6% in 2023 to 57.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve from 18.5% to 22.2% over the same period [3]. Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from various business segments is expected to grow, with power prediction products reaching 310 million CNY (+15.6%), grid-connected control systems at 124 million CNY (+28.1%), and other products showing significant growth [8]. - The first quarter of 2025 indicates a notable acceleration in revenue, primarily driven by the rapid growth of distributed photovoltaic power station power prediction products [8]. Market and Policy Environment - The company is positioned to benefit from favorable policies and the increasing demand for distributed photovoltaic power station services, which are expected to drive significant growth in the coming years [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electricity industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The construction of the spot market is accelerating, with a goal of nationwide coverage by 2025. The "394" document encourages advanced provinces to transition to formal operations by the end of 2025, while non-pilot provinces like Shaanxi are expected to do so by mid-2026 [3][9][10] - New energy sources will face competitive challenges as they enter the market, creating significant development opportunities for third-party entities such as pumped storage and virtual power plants [3][10][12] - The outlook for the spot market construction indicates a comprehensive rollout from 2025 to 2026, with regulatory resources expected to benefit continuously [3][11][12] Monthly Sector and Key Listed Company Performance - In April, the electricity and public utilities sector rose by 1.5%, outperforming the broader market, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 3.0% [13][14] Monthly Electricity Demand Analysis - In March 2025, total electricity consumption reached 828.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 4.80%, an increase of 3.50 percentage points compared to January-February [19][25] - The electricity consumption growth rate for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries was 9.90%, 3.80%, and 8.40% respectively, with residential electricity consumption growing by 5.00% [19][25] Monthly Electricity Production Analysis - In March 2025, total electricity generation was 7780.20 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.80%. The breakdown by source shows a 2.30% decrease in thermal power generation, while hydropower, nuclear, wind, and solar power saw increases of 9.50%, 23.00%, 8.20%, and 8.90% respectively [4][46][47] Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have mandated that by the end of 2025, the electricity spot market should achieve basic nationwide coverage [4][8]

Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The second round of coke price increases has started, but the downstream steel mills have strong resistance, and the implementation after the May Day holiday is expected to face difficulties. The coke futures price is expected to maintain a downward trend under the expectation of crude steel production control. - The main - producing area coal mines have normal production and stable supply. The coking coal spot market is weakly stable, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures and Spot Market Data - **Coke Futures**: For example, J2505 closed at 1574.0, up 5.0 from the previous day; J2509 closed at 1655T, down 9.0 from the previous day. The 2509 - contract coking profit was 250.1 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. - **Coke Spot**: The ex - factory prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze remained unchanged. The Rizhao Port coke warehouse receipt price was 1469 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day. - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2505 closed at 887.5, up 7.0 from the previous day; JM2509 closed at 932.0, down 15.0 from the previous day. - **Coking Coal Spot**: The prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coking coal remained unchanged, and the price of the best - quality warehouse receipt in Shanxi was 946 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [2][3] Fundamental Data - **Coke Fundamentals**: The daily average iron - making output of 247 steel enterprises was 244.4, up 4.23 from the previous day, a 1.76% increase. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises was 47.5, up 0.07 from the previous day, a 0.15% increase. The inventory of the full - sample independent coking plants decreased by 2.23%. - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: The daily average output of 110 coal - washing plants was 53.4, down 1.3 from the previous day, a 2.57% decrease. The inventory of 523 mines increased by 6.38%. [2] Important News - The State Council has issued policies related to the power market, aiming to achieve full coverage of the power spot market by the end of 2025 and relax market price limits in some areas. - Some manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have received notices from major US retailers to resume shipments, and the new import tariff costs will be borne by US customers. - On April 29, the main port iron ore transactions increased by 30.8% month - on - month, and the construction steel transactions of 237 mainstream traders decreased by 7.3% month - on - month. [4][5] Trading Strategies - **Coke**: The second - round price increase is facing difficulties in implementation. The steel mills' iron - making output is high, and the coke demand is strongly supported. The coke enterprises' production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The futures price is expected to decline under the crude - steel production control expectation. - **Coking Coal**: The coal mines' supply is stable, the market trading activity is low, the inventory is increasing, and the short - term coal price is expected to be weakly stable. The coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly. [6]

【重要资讯】 1、国家主席习近平在上海考察时强调，上海承担着建设国际科技创新中心的历史使命,要抢抓机遇,以服务国家战略为牵引,不断增强 科技创新策源功能和高端产业引领功能,加快建成具有全球影响力的科技创新高地。 2、近日，国家发展改革委已印发通知，会同财政部及时向地方追加下达今年第二批810亿元超长期特别国债资金，继续大力支持消费品 以旧换新。 3、印尼政府在上周末宣布,提高对镍、煤炭、铜、黄金等矿产的特许权使用费税率。其中,镍的税率增幅最大,从原定固定的10%上调 至14%至19%不等,具体税率取决于镍的市场价格。 4、美国总统特朗普20日签署公告，允许对进口汽车零部件、在美国组装汽车的汽车生产商进行一定程度的补偿。补偿金额最高可达汽车 零售价格的3.75%. 这一补偿上限在第二年将降至汽车零售价格的2.5%。 宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基 ...

Group 1: Production and Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total electricity generation of 500.1 billion kWh, an increase of 27.5% year-on-year, with an average settlement price of 437.37 RMB/MWh (including tax), a decrease of 2.82% [1] - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported a generation of 129.58 billion kWh, a decrease of 7.23% year-on-year, and a sales heat volume of 4,017.89 million GJ, down 3.48% [2] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 235.17 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.09%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.3 billion RMB, up 181.59% [2] Group 2: Cost Management and Coal Supply - In 2024, the company procured 34.01 million tons of electricity coal, with an average comprehensive benchmark price of 775.12 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10.07% year-on-year [1] - The company’s long-term coal supply agreements cover over 80% of its coal needs, with primary sources being Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and local Hebei [5] Group 3: Future Projects and Capacity Expansion - In 2025, the company plans to add a controlled installed capacity of 132,000 kW and an equity installed capacity of 119.5 million kW [8] - Ongoing projects include the construction of the Xibaipo Power Plant Phase IV (2×66,000 kW) and the Renqiu Thermal Power Plant Phase II (2×35,000 kW), both expected to be operational by 2026 [8] Group 4: Market Conditions and Trading - The company reported that approximately 80% of the electricity traded in 2025 was through bilateral negotiations [3] - The Hebei region's spot market began trial operations on March 1, 2025, with the company prepared for normal trading activities [4] Group 5: Dividend Policy and Investor Relations - The company has increased its cash dividend distribution from 30% to 50% of the distributable profits as part of its three-year shareholder return plan (2024-2026) [8]

Market Overview - On April 29, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index also fell by 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.13%[3]. - The trading volume on April 30 was 1.04 trillion CNY, a decrease of approximately 40 billion CNY compared to the previous trading day[1]. Sector Performance - Industries such as beauty care, machinery, media, and light industry saw significant gains, while public utilities, oil, coal, and social services experienced notable declines[1]. - The majority of sectors showed limited upward movement, indicating a weak market structure with most sectors declining over the past five days[1]. Capital Flow - On April 29, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 4.695 billion CNY, while net inflows into the Shenzhen Stock Exchange were 4.105 billion CNY[4]. - The top three sectors for capital inflow were IT services, general equipment, and automotive parts, while the top three sectors for outflow were electricity, securities, and liquor[4]. Policy and Economic Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an additional 81 billion CNY in special long-term bonds to support the consumption upgrade program[5]. - The construction of the electricity spot market is set to accelerate, with specific deadlines for various regions to transition to formal operations by 2025 and 2026[6][7]. Industry Insights - Canalys predicts that by 2025, the penetration rate of L2 and above functionalities in the Chinese market will reach 62%, a significant increase from 2024[12]. - The issuance of new funds has surpassed 300 billion CNY this year, with nearly half allocated to equity funds, indicating a recovery in the active equity fund issuance market[15].