Report Title - National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 93, 2025) [1] Report Provider - Guotai Junan Futures [2] Release Date - June 12, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - CEA prices rebounded with reduced volume, and market participants showed strong willingness to support prices [3] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] - The remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [4] - After the CEA price fell to around 70 yuan/ton, bottom - fishing demand emerged. However, the release of mandatory circulation quotas is insufficient, potential selling pressure still exists, and the market price is oscillating at the bottom without upward driving force. Considering the verification node, trading volume is expected to increase in mid - to - late June, and the bottom range in June is expected to be 62 - 66 yuan/ton [6] - If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed further, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the daily trading volume can increase significantly, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [6] Market Quotes Summary CEA - CEA21 and CEA22 showed abnormal movements, and CEA23 had a mild rebound. The volume of listed transactions was 82,000 tons, and the volume of large - scale transactions was 100,000 tons [12] - CEA19 - 20 closed at 69.11 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 at 72.00 yuan/ton with a 6.67% increase; CEA22 at 71.50 yuan/ton with a 6.72% increase; CEA23 at 69.85 yuan/ton with a 0.82% increase; CEA24 at 69.50 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change [8] CCER - The listed agreement trading volume was 77,900 tons, and the average transaction price was 87.28 yuan/ton with a 9.03% increase [10][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The auction price of EUA is 73.5 euros/ton (up 1.86%), with a bid - cover ratio of 1.56; the EUA futures settlement price is 74.36 euros/ton (up 2.34%), and the trading volume is 30,300 lots (up 0.28). The short - term strategy is bearish, and the medium - term is range - bound between €67 - 75. The latest CoT report shows that last week, investment funds' net long positions increased by 5.74 million tons, nearly half of which came from short - covering. The TTF strengthened due to factors such as French nuclear power maintenance and the EU's proposal to end the secret import of fuel from Russia. There are no new negative factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market - **Auction**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA auction price was 73.50 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the auction volume was 2.0725 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.56, and the auction revenue was 152.33 million euros. On June 10, 2025, the EUA auction price was 72.16 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.39 euros/ton, the auction volume was 3.2455 million tons, the bid - cover ratio was 1.64, and the auction revenue was 234.20 million euros [3]. - **Futures**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 74.36 euros/ton, up 2.34% from the previous day, and the trading volume was 30,300 lots, up 0.28. The open interest was 32.07 million lots, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: On June 11, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 73.43 euros/ton, up 2.34% from the previous day, and the trading volume decreased by 3,958 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 12.83 US dollars/TEU, with a freight rate ratio of 0.77% [4].

唐惠廷 国泰君安期货研究所 · 高级分析师 ☆ 欲获取更多碳交易研究产品, 请咨询对口销售。 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021216 联系电话:021-33037830 重要声明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格。本内容的观点和信息仅供国泰君安期货的专业投资者参考。本内容难以设置访问权限, 苦给您造成不便, 教请谅解。若您并非国泰君安期货客户中的专业投资者,请勿闻读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的维 个,亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议,且本公司不会因接收人收到本内容而视其为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资并。本公 司对这些信息的准确性、完整性及未来变更的可能性不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受能力作出我资决定并自主承担投资风险。不应凭 借本内容进行具体操作,本公司不对固使用本内容而造成的损失事担任何责任。除非另有说明,本公司拥有本内容的版权和/或其他相关知识产 叙。未经本公司事先书面午可，任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分冈赛。 国泰君安期货 欧盟碳市场行情简报 (2025年第98期) 发布日期:2025-06- ...

Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 91, 2025) [1] - Release Date: June 10, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The single - day trading volume of CEA exceeded 1 million tons again, and the CEA price was weakly stable. CEA23 and CEA24 showed a differentiated trend, with 27,000 tons in the listing market and 990,000 tons in the bulk market. The listing agreement trading volume of CCER was 20,000 tons, and the average trading price was 88 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.64% [4] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [4] - After the CEA price fell to around 70 yuan, bottom - fishing demand emerged. However, the release of mandatory circulation quotas is insufficient, potential selling pressure still exists, the market price is fluctuating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward driving force. Considering the verification node, the trading volume is expected to rise in the middle and late June, and the bottom range in June is expected to be 62 - 66 yuan/ton [5] - If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height may be more limited. If the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Summary by Catalog CEA Market - **Price and Volume Information**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 67 yuan/ton, 67.5 yuan/ton, 67 yuan/ton, 68.6 yuan/ton, and 68.25 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.44%, and 0.37% respectively. The total trading volumes were 0 tons, 0 tons, 0 tons, 25,700 tons, and 991,000 tons respectively. The listing agreement trading volumes were 0 tons, 0 tons, 0 tons, 25,700 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively, and the bulk agreement trading volume of CEA24 was 990,000 tons. The total turnovers were 68.3763 million yuan, 0 yuan, 0 yuan, 1.7642 million yuan, and 0 yuan respectively [7][8] CCER Market - The average trading price was 88 yuan/ton, with a change of 1.64%. The trading volume was 20,000 tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 2.0016 million tons [9]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 97, 2025) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Report's Core View - EUA continues to decouple from TTF and closes higher again. The short - term outlook is neutral to bullish, while the medium - term outlook shows an oscillation range of €67 - 75. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - First - level (Auction): Auction price is not available, and the bid - coverage ratio is not available. Second - level (EUA Futures): The settlement price is 74.23 euros/ton (0.99% increase), and the trading volume is 21,700 lots (0.57 increase) [2] Strategy - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic - Positive factors: Most EU countries are on holiday, so there is no auction today; The Norwegian natural gas plant is still under maintenance [2] - Negative factors: Rising European temperatures suppress natural gas demand, but it is not enough to stimulate stable cooling demand; Low Asian natural gas demand leads to excess LNG being diverted to Europe, alleviating the pre - replenishment supply shortage and pushing down the TTF price [2] Data Charts - The report includes charts on EUA latest auction market information, EUA auction price trend - seasonal chart, EUA auction bid - coverage ratio - seasonal chart, EUA market information - futures and spot, EUA futures and spot prices and basis, and December contract positions - seasonal chart [2]

Report Title - The report is titled "EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 96, 2025)" [1] Release Date - The report was released on June 9, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Viewpoints - EU ETS may be extended to international aviation, and EUA decoupled from TTF and strengthened [2] Market Conditions Primary Market - The auction price was 72.3 euros/ton, a decrease of 0.33%, and the bid - to - cover ratio was 1.74 [2] Secondary Market - The EUA futures settlement price was 73.5 euros/ton, an increase of 1.04%, and the trading volume was 16,000 lots, a decrease of 1.17 [2] Strategy - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - China's Ministry of Commerce proposed to relax rare - earth exports to the EU; The EU intends to extend EU ETS to international aviation [2] Bearish Factors - Germany's wind power supply increased, and the temperature in Central and Eastern Europe was slightly higher than the seasonal average; German industry lobbying groups demanded that the EU revoke the gasoline - car ban [2][3] Data Tables EUA Auction Information | EUA Auction Volume (10,000 tons) | EUA Auction Price (euros/ton) | CBAM Certificate Price (euros/ton) | Bid - to - Cover Ratio | Auction Revenue (10,000 euros) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 160.70 | 2025 - 06 - 06, 72.30 | 71.13 | 1.74 | 11,619 | | 324.55 | 2025 - 06 - 05, 72.54 | 71.13 | 1.46 | 23,543 | [4] EUA Futures and Spot Market Information | | Futures Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Futures Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Futures Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Spot Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Spot Trading Volume (lots) | Container Shipping Carbon Cost (US dollars/TEU) | Freight Cost Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 05 | 72.74 | | 32.12 | 71.79 | | | | | 2025 - 06 - 06 | 73.50, +1.04% | 1.60, - 1.17 | 32.12, 0.00 | 72.56, +1.07% | - 1260 | 12.71, +0.76% | 1051 | [5]

Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 89, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: 2025-06-06 [3] Investment Strategy - Strategy Suggestion: Enterprises with a quota gap are advised to make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [4]. Core Logic - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, there was some bottom-fishing demand. However, the release of mandatory circulation quotas is currently insufficient, there is still potential selling pressure, the market price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward momentum. Considering the verification node, trading volume is expected to rise in mid-to-late June, and the bottom range in June is estimated to be 62 - 66 yuan/ton. - If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to be postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the single-day trading volume can increase significantly, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [6]. Market Quotes CEA Spot Quotes | | CEA19 - 20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 67.00 | 67.50 | 67.00 | 69.26 | 68.76 | | Daily Change (%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.36% | 0.98% | | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | | 0.50 | -0.50 | 2.26 | -0.50 | | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 68.45 | | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.92 | 121.94 | | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.92 | 6.94 | | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 115.00 | | Total Turnover (10,000 yuan) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8349.17 | [8][9] CCER Trading Information - Transaction Average Price: 85.00 yuan/ton - Daily Change: 0.00% - Turnover: 0.85 million yuan - Trading Volume: 0.01 million tons - Cumulative Trading Volume: 188.06 million tons [10] Today's Market Summary - CEA: CEA23 and CEA24 rebounded slightly. The listing trading volume was 11.9 million tons, and the bulk trading volume was 115.0 million tons. - CCER: The listing agreement trading volume was 0.01 million tons, and the transaction average price was 85.00 yuan/ton (0.00% change) [12]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing is making significant strides in promoting product carbon footprint certification, marking an important step towards low-carbon transformation in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Initiatives and Collaborations - The Beijing Municipal Market Supervision Administration and Haidian District Government have launched a pilot program for product carbon footprint certification, indicating a collaborative effort to enhance green finance and transition financial products [1]. - A cooperation agreement was signed among several certification agencies and the Bank of Communications Beijing Branch to explore green finance products and services, promoting the integration of carbon footprint and carbon trading mechanisms [1][2]. Group 2: Pilot Program Details - The pilot program will focus on the electronic and electrical (computer) sector, with Haidian District officially approved to conduct product carbon footprint trials [1][2]. - A total of 19 computer companies, including Lenovo, have applied for participation in the pilot program, with plans to certify no less than 15 computer products by 2027 [2]. Group 3: Key Tasks and Mechanisms - Five key tasks have been established to support the pilot program, including the development of certification rules, capacity building for carbon footprint certification, and the establishment of a product carbon footprint guarantee system [3]. - The initiative aims to enhance regulatory oversight, data security, and intellectual property protection related to carbon footprint certification [3]. Group 4: Understanding Carbon Footprint - The product carbon footprint measures the total greenhouse gas emissions associated with a product throughout its lifecycle, from raw material extraction to disposal, serving as a "carbon identity card" for products [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Neutral to bullish; Medium - term: Oscillation range between €67 - 75 [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Supply disturbances continue to push up TTF, while EUA shows a flat performance. There are no new negative factors, and the positive factor is that the Norwegian Kollsnes natural gas processing plant has started seasonal work, with Norway's supply accounting for about one - third of EU imports in 2024 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The EUA auction price is 72.54 euros/ton (up 2.73%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.46 [2] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price is 72.74 euros/ton (up 0.18%), with a trading volume of 27,700 lots (up 0.49) [2] Auction Information | Date | EUA Auction Price (euros/ton) | CBAM Certificate Price (euros/ton) | EUA Auction Volume (10,000 tons) | Bid - cover Ratio | Auction Revenue (10,000 euros) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 06 - 05 | 72.54 | 324.55 | 71.13 | 1.46 | 23,543 | | 2025 - 06 - 03 | 70.61 | 324.55 | 71.13 | 1.48 | 22,916 | [4] Futures and Spot Market Information | | Futures Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Futures Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Futures Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Spot Settlement Price (euros/ton) | Spot Trading Volume (lots) | Container Shipping Carbon Cost (US dollars/TEU) | Freight Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 06 - 04 | 72.61 | 2.77 | 32.02 | 71.79 | 2,311 | 12.55 | 847 | | 2025 - 06 - 05 | 72.74 (up 0.18%) | 2.77 (up 0.49) | 32.02 (no change) | 71.67 (up 0.17%) | 2,311 (up 0.79%) | | | [5]

Report Investment Rating - Short-term neutral to bullish, medium-term trading range €67 - 75 [1] Core View - The EUA market is experiencing a mixed situation with both bullish and bearish factors, resulting in a volatile market [1] Auction Information - On June 4, 2025, the EUA auction price was 0.00 million euros, the CBAM certificate price was N/A, the auction volume was N/A, the bid coverage ratio was N/A, and the auction revenue was 0 [2] - On June 3, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.61 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 71.13 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324.55 tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.48, and the auction revenue was 22,916 [2] Futures and Spot Information - On June 4, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 72.61 euros/ton (up 0.01%), the trading volume was 22,800 lots (down 0.43), and the open interest was 319,800 lots (unchanged) [3] - On June 4, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 71.67 euros/ton (up 0.01%), the trading volume was 1,464 lots (up 0.79%), the shipping carbon cost was 12.53 US dollars/TEU, and the freight rate accounted for 0.79% [3] Bullish Factors - Trump and Putin had a phone call, and both sides said there was no progress in the Ukraine ceasefire. Russia said it would respond to Ukraine's attacks, and a Kremlin advisor suggested Trump reduce US support for Ukraine [1] Bearish Factors - The latest CoT report shows that investment funds' net long positions decreased by about 940,000 tons last week [1] - Germany's remaining negative load is expected to decline due to increased wind power generation [1] - Saudi Arabia hopes OPEC+ will implement more large-scale oil production increases, and if the current acceleration pace continues, the full production increase can be completed by the end of September, one year ahead of the original plan [1]