Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price range of 7.23 to 7.60 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 26.6% to 33.1% from the current price of 5.71 CNY [5][3]. Core Views - The company is a leading private enterprise in the biomass power generation sector, focusing on the utilization of agricultural and forestry biomass resources. It has successfully transitioned from manufacturing to becoming a benchmark in low-carbon and environmentally friendly industries [12][2]. - The biomass power generation industry is currently facing operational pressures due to subsidy arrears and rising raw material costs. However, the company has achieved growth through refined management practices [1][2]. - The partnership with the Zhongke system is expected to enhance the company's digital and intelligent transformation, while the decline in coal prices is anticipated to improve raw material procurement costs and profitability [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1993, the company initially started with gas appliance manufacturing and later entered the waste incineration and biomass power generation sectors. It became a publicly listed company focused on agricultural and forestry biomass resource utilization after divesting its manufacturing business in 2021 [12][1]. Industry Analysis - As of the end of 2024, the total installed capacity of biomass power generation in China reached 45.99 million kW, with the company holding a capacity of 491 MW, ranking third in the industry [1][47]. - The biomass power generation sector is categorized into three types: agricultural and forestry biomass, waste incineration, and biogas power generation. The industry is supported by national policies aimed at promoting renewable energy [36][37]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 37.86 billion CNY in 2024 to 44.05 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 217 million CNY in 2024 to 334 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 8.4% [4][3]. - The company's operating income from power supply and heating services accounted for 53.8% and 43.6% of total revenue in 2024, respectively [15][4]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a competitive edge through effective risk management and operational efficiency, successfully integrating its manufacturing experience into environmental project operations [2][62]. - The company has successfully included 13 projects in the national subsidy list, indicating its proactive approach to project selection and management [2][5]. Future Outlook - The expansion of the carbon market is expected to provide additional revenue opportunities through carbon trading, further enhancing the company's financial performance [2][3]. - The partnership with Zhongke Xinkong is anticipated to facilitate the company's digital transformation and improve operational efficiency [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price range of 7.23 to 7.60 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 26.6% to 33.1% from the current price of 5.71 CNY [5][3]. Core Views - The company is a leading private enterprise in the biomass power generation sector, focusing on the utilization of agricultural and forestry biomass resources. It has successfully transitioned from manufacturing to becoming a benchmark in low-carbon and environmentally friendly industries [1][12]. - The biomass power generation industry is currently facing operational pressures due to subsidy arrears and rising raw material costs. However, the company has achieved growth through refined management practices [1][2]. - The partnership with the Zhongke system is expected to enhance the company's digital and intelligent transformation, while the decline in coal prices is anticipated to improve raw material procurement costs, leading to a recovery in profitability [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1993, the company initially started with gas appliance manufacturing and later entered the waste incineration and biomass power generation sectors. It became a publicly listed company focused on biomass resource utilization after divesting its manufacturing business in 2021 [1][12]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 4.076 billion CNY in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.32% since its listing. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow to 280 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.2% [4][22]. - The company’s operating income from power supply is expected to account for 53.8% of total revenue in 2024, while heating income will contribute 43.6% [15]. Industry Analysis - As of the end of 2024, the total installed capacity of biomass power generation in China reached 45.99 million kilowatts, with the company ranking third in the agricultural and forestry biomass sector with an installed capacity of 491 MW [1][44]. - The biomass power generation industry is characterized by its stable output and ability to adjust, making it suitable for base load and peak shaving functions in the power system. It aligns with national strategies for pollution control and rural revitalization [37][42]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a competitive edge through effective risk management and operational efficiency. It has successfully integrated its manufacturing management experience into its environmental projects [2][62]. - The company has successfully included 13 projects in the national subsidy list, which is crucial for its financial performance, given the industry's reliance on government subsidies [2][61].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: National Carbon Market Weekly Brief (Issue 81, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: May 23, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The recent average daily trading volume is low, and the trend of bottom - grinding through fluctuations is difficult to change in the short term [5] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [7] Group 4: Market Conditions CEA - CEA22 has a significant decline, while other quotas are weakly stable. The volume of listed transactions is 15.64 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions is 42.00 tons [6] - CEA19 - 20 has a closing price of 69.50 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%, CEA21 has a closing price of 68.50 yuan/ton with no change, CEA22 has a closing price of 67.80 yuan/ton with a decline of 3.14%, CEA23 has a closing price of 70.53 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%, and CEA24 has a closing price of 70.73 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.18% [11] - The total trading volume of CEA19 - 20 is 0.20 tons, CEA21 is 0.00 tons, CEA22 is 1.50 tons, CEA23 is 11.07 tons, and CEA24 is 44.87 tons [11] - The total turnover of CEA19 - 20 is 3176.98 million yuan, CEA21 is 101.70 million yuan, CEA22 is 13.97 million yuan, CEA23 is 897.26 million yuan, and CEA24 is 0.00 million yuan [12] CCER - The volume of listed agreement transactions is 3.50 tons, and the average transaction price is 90.00 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.82%. The turnover is 315.36 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 179.41 tons [6][13] Group 5: Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [7] Group 6: Core Logic - After the CEA price drops to around 70 yuan, both the rigid demand and speculative demand in the market appear, the market trading enthusiasm significantly increases, and the release of the mandatory circulation quota accelerates. The bottom of the CEA comprehensive price in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [9] - Currently, the release ratio of the mandatory circulation quota is less than 20%, and there is still potential selling pressure. The market price is bottom - grinding through fluctuations and still lacks upward driving force. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height may be more limited. If the daily trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [9]

今日 成交热度持续回升,CEA窄幅震荡,CCER大跌 1、CEA: CEA21偏弱, CEA23偏强, CEA24持稳: 挂牌14.68万吨, 大宗70.00万吨 行情 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量0.10万吨,成交均价84.00元/吨（-4.55%） 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第78期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-05-20 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 69. 60 | 70. 00 | 70. 00 | 71.06 | 71. 02 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | -0.71% | 0.00% | 0.75% | 0.01% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | 0. 40 | 0. 00 | 1.06 | -0 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.611 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.36%, with a net profit of 1.229 billion yuan, up 4.16% from the previous year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total profit of 379 million yuan, a 21.16% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 297 million yuan, up 19.08% [2] - The acquisition of 85% of Aolande Environment for 477 million yuan is expected to enhance the company's market position and operational capabilities [2][3] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company's main business revenue was 6.39 billion yuan, accounting for 96.66% of total revenue, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.141 billion yuan [1] - The total assets of the company reached 30.708 billion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a 5.42% year-on-year increase, while the asset-liability ratio was 68.88% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported an operating income of 1.536 billion yuan, a 13.19% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 39.57% [2] Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of Aolande Environment is seen as a significant step for the company to strengthen its position in the sanitation market, providing new growth opportunities and enhancing operational synergy [3] - The company plans to develop an integrated "big solid waste" industry ecosystem, focusing on waste disposal, heating, and medical waste projects [4] - Future business development will focus on expanding core businesses, developing growth areas, and optimizing existing business layouts [3][4] Market Expansion - The company aims to address fragmented water supply and drainage issues in Henan Province, with plans to integrate water supply and sewage projects [4] - The sanitation business has seen significant growth, with revenue and profits doubling over the past three years, and the acquisition of Aolande is expected to further increase market share [4] - The company is exploring new business avenues such as environmental equipment manufacturing and carbon trading, with a focus on innovative technologies and business models [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading enthusiasm has slightly rebounded, the CEA price has stabilized, and the CCER price has declined in compensation. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4][5] - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [6] - After the CEA price drops to around 70 yuan, both the rigid demand and speculative demand in the market have emerged, the trading enthusiasm in the market has significantly increased, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas has accelerated. The bottom of the CEA comprehensive price in May may be raised to 60 - 65 yuan per ton. If the selling time of surplus enterprises continues to be postponed, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height; if the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: The prices of CEA23 and CEA24 remained stable. The listed volume was 28.60 tons, and the bulk volume was 30.00 tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 69.60 yuan, 70.50 yuan, 70.00 yuan, 70.96 yuan, and 70.93 yuan per ton respectively, with daily price changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.07%, and 0.20%. The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 31.27, and 27.33 tons respectively [4][9] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.23 tons, the average trading price was 86.98 yuan per ton (-3.36%), the trading amount was 20.01 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 175.34 tons [4][11] Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [5] Core Logic - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [6] - After the CEA price drops to around 70 yuan, both the rigid demand and speculative demand in the market have emerged, the trading enthusiasm in the market has significantly increased, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas has accelerated. The bottom of the CEA comprehensive price in May may be raised to 60 - 65 yuan per ton. If the selling time of surplus enterprises continues to be postponed, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height; if the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [7]

Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 74, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: May 14, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan, both market rigid demand and speculative demand emerged, significantly increasing market trading enthusiasm, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the bottom of the CEA composite price in May may be raised to 60 - 65 yuan/ton [15] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] - In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [5] - If the selling nodes of surplus enterprises continue to be postponed, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height; if the single - day trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [6] Market Quotes Summary CEA Market - CEA22, 23, and 24 prices slightly rebounded. The listed volume was 19.46 million tons, and the bulk volume was 20.00 million tons [14] - CEA19 - 20 closed at 69.60 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 at 70.50 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA22 at 70.00 yuan/ton with a 0.57% change; CEA23 at 70.91 yuan/ton with a 0.58% change; CEA24 at 70.79 yuan/ton with a 0.41% change [8] - The total trading volume of CEA23 was 23.68 million tons, and that of CEA24 was 15.78 million tons. The total turnover of CEA19 - 20 was 16.7296 million yuan, and that of CEA22 was 11.1688 million yuan [8][9] CCER Market - The listed agreement trading volume was 0.11 million tons, and the average transaction price was 90.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.17%. The turnover was 9.91 - 175.11 million yuan [10][14]

Report Overview - Report Title: EU Carbon Market Briefing (2025 Issue 79) [1] - Release Date: May 14, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Tang Huiting, Senior Analyst at Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The fundamentals of the EU carbon market are showing a weakening trend, and the upward trend of EUA has temporarily paused [2] - In the short - term, EUA is overbought, and there is still a risk of decline in the medium - term, with an upper resistance level of €75 [2] Market Conditions Primary Market - On May 13, 2025, the EUA auction price was 71.69 euros/ton (up 0.96%), and the bid - to - cover ratio was 1.4 [2][3] Secondary Market - On May 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 72.9 euros/ton (down 0.69%), and the trading volume was 29,600 lots (down 0.43) [2][3] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Before the negotiation, Zelensky publicly provoked Putin, reducing the possibility of a meeting between the two leaders [2] - Drought in Northern Europe will support European electricity prices, and future rainfall is limited [2] - The US launched a new round of energy export sanctions against Iran, pushing up crude oil prices [2] Bearish Factors - The team responsible for the European Green Deal will be renamed the team for "Clean Transition and Health", indicating that this milestone policy in von der Leyen's first term will be downplayed [2][3] - Temperatures in the southwest of Europe are warming, and wind and photovoltaic power generation resources will increase [2][3] Market Data Tables EUA Auction Information - On May 13, 2025, the EUA auction volume was 23,267 tons, the auction price was 71.69 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 324.55 euros/ton, the auction revenue was 68.55 million euros, and the bid - to - cover ratio was 1.4 [3] EUA Futures and Spot Information - On May 13, 2025, the EUA futures settlement price was 72.90 euros/ton (down 0.69% from the previous day), the trading volume was 29,600 lots (down 0.43), and the open interest was unchanged [3] - On May 13, 2025, the EUA spot settlement price was 71.81 euros/ton (down 0.69% from the previous day), the trading volume decreased by 1,241 lots, the spot carbon cost for container shipping was 12.81 US dollars/TEU, and the cost accounted for 1.10% of the freight [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing significant growth in revenue and profit, driven by increased sales volume and improved product structure, despite the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products [3][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 32.321 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.23%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.748 billion yuan, up 29.76% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 8.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.07%, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, up 21.46% [3]. Sales and Profitability - In 2024, the company sold 1.4672 million tons of products, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, with a net profit per ton of 1,191.7 yuan, an increase of 100.5 yuan per ton compared to 2023 [4]. - The quarterly net profit per ton for 2024 was 1,052.6 yuan in Q1, 1,904.4 yuan in Q2, 893.3 yuan in Q3, and 907.0 yuan in Q4 [4]. Market Impact of Policy Changes - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products starting December 1, 2024, is not expected to significantly impact sales, as the company anticipates maintaining sales of over 120,000 tons, indicating strong acceptance of new pricing by foreign clients [5]. Industry Developments - The inclusion of electrolytic aluminum in the national carbon market is approaching, with significant benefits for recycled aluminum, which has a much lower carbon footprint compared to traditional methods [6]. - The production of 1 ton of recycled aluminum emits only 0.2 tons of CO2, compared to 13 tons for traditional methods, leading to substantial carbon tax savings [6]. Capacity Expansion and Product Development - The company is expanding its production capacity and improving its product structure by focusing on high-end materials for sectors such as new energy, automotive, and semiconductors [7]. - Plans include the construction of a high-end heat treatment line and the exploration of advanced product technologies in automotive and aerospace applications [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5][16]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in net profit per ton in 2024, with a total revenue of 32.32 billion yuan, up 22.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, up 29.76% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its product structure by increasing its focus on high-end applications in sectors such as new energy, electronics, and automotive, which has improved its product mix [1][3]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products starting December 1, 2024, is not expected to significantly impact sales, as foreign clients are adapting to new pricing methods [2]. - The company is actively developing high-end products and expanding its production capacity in response to market demands, particularly in the fields of new energy and automotive materials [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company sold 1.4672 million tons of products, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, with a net profit per ton of 1,191.7 yuan, an increase of 100.5 yuan per ton compared to 2023 [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 8.124 billion yuan, a 13.07% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 440 million yuan, up 21.46% year-on-year [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 35.78 billion yuan in 2025 and 38.60 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 2.04 billion yuan and 2.27 billion yuan [4][12]. - The report has adjusted profit forecasts upwards, expecting net profits of 2.04 billion yuan for 2025, 2.27 billion yuan for 2026, and introducing a new forecast of 2.48 billion yuan for 2027 [3]. Market and Industry Context - The company is positioned well within the global aluminum market, which relies heavily on Chinese aluminum exports due to its established production capabilities and skilled workforce [2]. - The integration of electrolytic aluminum into the national carbon market is anticipated to benefit the company, particularly in the production of recycled aluminum, which has significantly lower carbon emissions [2].