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浆市跟涨意愿不明显 纸浆期货延续低位震荡调整
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-17 06:08
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the inventory of pulp at major ports in China is relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.4 million tons, reflecting a narrow range of inventory reduction [1] - As of August 2025, the total pulp imports amounted to 2.653 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 7.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, while cumulative imports reached 24.108 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in pulp warehouse futures receipts by 186 tons, while the pulp factory warehouse futures receipts remained unchanged [2] Group 2 - According to Jianxin Futures, the short-term supply of pulp is relatively abundant, with downstream paper mills increasing production but primarily purchasing at low prices due to cost pressures, leading to continued low-level fluctuations [3] - Guoxin Futures noted that due to ongoing cost pressures, market participants are reluctant to raise prices, and the profitability of downstream paper enterprises remains poor, resulting in limited acceptance of high prices and a focus on low-cost procurement [4] - There is a recommendation to observe the stabilization of demand, with a suggestion to remain cautious in trading activities [4]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250917
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 01:42
Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Pulp Daily [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Recommendations - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5308 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5350 yuan/ton, rising 0.79% overall. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4980 - 6600 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5680 - 5700 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco of Chile announced the new September wood pulp export prices: softwood pulp Yinxing at 700 USD/ton, down 20 USD/ton from last month; natural pulp Venus at 590 USD/ton, unchanged from last month; hardwood pulp Mingxing at 520 USD/ton, up 20 USD/ton from last month [8] - In August, the European wood pulp inventory was 70.78 million tons, up 3.5% month - on - month and 11.3% year - on - year; the consumption was 70.08 million tons, down 13.7% month - on - month and up 2.4% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in August were 265.3 million tons, down 7.9% month - on - month and 5.6% year - on - year. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 207.20 million tons, up 0.71% from last week [8] - In the downstream cultural paper market, the restart of previously shut - down production lines led to an increase in supply, but new orders from printing factories were limited, and the market was weak. In the short term, pulp supply was relatively abundant. Although the downstream paper mills'开工 rate increased, they mainly purchased at low prices under cost pressure, and the market continued to fluctuate at a low level [8] Group 3: Industry News - On September 11, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued Announcement No. 21 of 2025, approving the release of 622 recommended national standards and 6 recommended national standard modification orders, including 6 national standards in the papermaking field. Four were revision projects and two were formulation projects. The release and implementation of these standards improved the papermaking standard system and promoted the healthy development of the industry [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, and inventory data [15][17][19][28][29][32]
纸浆周报:纸浆底部区间显现,暂无利多驱动-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 10:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force at present. It is recommended to wait and see. The supply is relatively strong, the demand is neutral, the inventory is bearish, and the valuation is relatively strong [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano announced price increases in September 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and an $80/ton increase in Europe and the United States. The foreign market quotes have risen for two consecutive periods, strongly supporting domestic pulp prices. The pulp supply in the fourth quarter is expected to decline as the shipment volume from three South American countries to China decreased in August [3]. - **Demand**: The monthly output of major finished paper has increased, but the prices of mainstream finished paper are running at a low level. Some white cardboard and offset paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be confirmed [3]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 0.2%. The inventory is at a high level with a narrow - range de - stocking trend [3]. - **Valuation**: The basis of broadleaf pulp has strengthened to over - 1000 yuan, and pulp futures have entered a low - valuation range [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Pulp futures have reached an absolute low, but there is no upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the de - stocking of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, pulp futures fluctuated at a low level. After hitting a low, they rebounded slightly, but the high inventory indicates that the supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. Next week, focus on whether the warehouse receipts decrease after the delivery of the 09 contract is completed [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broadleaf pulp is stable, while the price of silver star has decreased. The price of coniferous pulp silver star is 5620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The price of coniferous pulp cloth needle is 4950 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The price of broadleaf pulp goldfish is 4150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [16]. - **Foreign Market Quotes**: In August, Arauco notified that the price of coniferous pulp silver star was $720/ton, the price of broadleaf pulp star was $520/ton with a 50% reduction in supply, and the price of natural pulp Venus was $590/ton. Suzano announced price increases in September 2025 [20]. - **Total Futures Positions**: As of September 12, 2025, the total positions of pulp futures contracts were 365,839 lots, a 6.11% increase from last week. The positions of the main pulp futures contract were 187,747 lots, a 2.35% increase from last week [21]. 3.3 Pulp Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In July, the import volume of pulp decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.877 million tons, a 5.08% decrease from the previous period. The import volume of coniferous pulp was 646,000 tons, a 4.72% decrease, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 1.351 million tons, a 5.85% decrease. The import volume of broadleaf wood chips was 1.341 million tons, a 3.79% increase [4]. - **Inventory**: The pulp port and warehouse receipt quantities have decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the port pulp inventory was 2.062 million tons, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 245,000 tons, a 0.73% decrease [4]. - **Overseas Inventory**: The inventory of overseas pulp mills has changed. The inventory days of world 20 - country commodity pulp suppliers at the end of July were 47 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 50 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days. In July 2025, the European port pulp inventory at the end of the month was 1.5275 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month decrease [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of September 12, 2025, the price of offset paper was 4818 yuan/ton, a 2.65% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5000 yuan/ton, a 2.9% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5583 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price of white cardboard was 3964 yuan/ton, a 0.35% month - on - month increase [55]. - **Output**: In August 2025, the output of offset paper was 724,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 9.4% year - on - year decrease; the output of coated paper was 375,000 tons, a 1.7% month - on - month decrease and a 2.2% year - on - year increase; the output of tissue paper was 840,000 tons, a 6.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.5% year - on - year increase; the output of white cardboard was 958,000 tons, a 4.5% month - on - month decrease and a 5.4% year - on - year decrease [62]. - **Inventory**: As of August 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.76 million tons, a 1.8% month - on - month increase and a 6.8% year - on - year increase; the inventory of coated paper was 1.182 million tons, a 0.34% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease; the inventory of tissue paper was 355,000 tons, an 8.9% month - on - month decrease and an 8.23% year - on - year increase; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.2899 million tons, a 0.5% month - on - month increase and a 5% year - on - year decrease [69]. - **European and American Demand**: In July 2025, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of European coniferous pulp was 27.2 days, a 1.3 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.1 - day year - on - year increase; the inventory - to - consumption ratio of broadleaf pulp was 24.1 days, a 2.5 - day month - on - month decrease and a 2.8 - day year - on - year increase. As of July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.92%, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease. In June 2025, the inventory - sales ratio of US paper products was 1.06, a 0.01 month - on - month increase and a 0.05 year - on - year increase [96]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: The basis of broadleaf Russian needle has strengthened, and the 11 - 1 inter - month spread has widened. As of September 12, 2025, the basis of Shandong Russian needle was - 40 yuan/ton, a 52 - yuan/ton increase from last week; the basis of Shandong silver star was 630 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. The 11 - 1 month spread was - 288 yuan/ton, a 22 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [102]. - **Import Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was - 178 yuan/ton, a 66 - yuan/ton decrease from last week; the import profit of broadleaf pulp was - 43 yuan/ton, a 17 - yuan/ton decrease from last week [106]. - **Needle - Broadleaf Spread**: As of September 12, 2025, the needle - broadleaf spread in Shandong, China, was 1437 yuan/ton, a 55 - yuan/ton decrease from last week. In July 2024, the needle - broadleaf import ratio in China was 0.48, a 0.01 increase from the previous month [108].
纸浆早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 03:01
Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on September 12, 2025, was 4990.00, with a previous day's closing price of 5016.00 and a decline of -0.51834% [3] - The corresponding US dollar price was 611.31, and the basis for Shandong Yinxing was 675, while that for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was 690 [3] Group 2: Pulp Price and Profit Information - For pulp from different origins and brands, such as Golden Lion from Canada (CFR price of 780), Lion from Canada (CFR price of 730), and Yinxing from Chile (CFR letter of credit 90 - day price of 720), the import profits were -145.57, -533.29, and -197.83 respectively [4] Group 3: Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The same was true for the Shandong region [4] - The prices of cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and living paper (living index) also remained unchanged during this period [4] Group 4: Paper Profit Margin Information - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white - card paper, and living paper on September 12, 2025, were 2.9521%, 18.9325%, -12.6626%, and 8.0245% respectively. The living paper profit margin increased by 0.2674 compared to previous days [4] Group 5: Pulp Price Spread Information - On September 12, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper were 1505.00, 265, 1840, and 4089 respectively [4]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250905
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 02:09
1. Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5,340 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,324 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.30%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,000 - 6,650 yuan/ton, with the low - end price unchanged from the previous trading day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5,750 yuan/ton [7]. - Chile's Arauco Company announced the new August wood pulp export quotes: softwood pulp Yinxing at $720/ton, natural pulp Jinxing at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Mingxing at $520/ton, remaining stable compared to the June quotes. In July, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 7.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 4.1% and hardwood pulp up 11.1%. In July 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased by 1.9% month - on - month and increased by 19.2% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in July were 2.877 million tons, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 23.7% year - on - year. As of September 4, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.52% month - on - month. In July, the cumulative year - on - year profit of the papermaking and paper products industry decreased by 21.9%, with a slightly wider decline. With limited cost guidance and ample supply, waiting for peak - season demand, pulp prices are in a low - level oscillatory adjustment [8]. 3. Industry News - On September 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued multiple announcements regarding offset printing paper futures, covering the first batch of delivery warehouses, delivery plants, deliverable commodities, and designated inspection institutions. - On September 4, with the arrival of the traditional peak season in the industry and many paper mills implementing a dual strategy of "price increase + shutdown", the upward trend of paper prices may continue. Since September, leading paper companies have adjusted prices. Recently, large paper mills such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper issued price - increase letters, announcing price hikes for some products in early September. In the first half of this year, among the 23 A - share listed companies in the papermaking industry, only 4 achieved positive net profit growth. Analysts believe that affected by the slowdown in the domestic FMCG consumption growth rate and cautious channel inventory replenishment willingness, the raw paper price has continued to bottom out, and the market is in a deep structural adjustment period [9] 4. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the spot price of imported bleached softwood pulp in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, needle - broadleaf price difference, inter - period price difference, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]
纸浆数据日报-20250904
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 05:12
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spread between contracts 11 and 1 is expected to narrow [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - On September 3, 2025, the futures price of coniferous pulp Silver Star (SP2601) was 5324, down 0.37% day-on-day and up 0.64% week-on-week; the spot price was 5720, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a week-on-week change of -0.52% [1] - The futures price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle (SP2511) was 5050, up 0.16% day-on-day and 0.80% week-on-week; the spot price was 5200, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a week-on-week change of 0.97% [1] - The futures price of broadleaf pulp Goldfish (SP2509) was 4998, up 0.16% day-on-day and 0.68% week-on-week; the spot price was 4200, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a week-on-week change of 0.00% [1] - The import cost of Chilean Silver Star decreased by 2.70% month-on-month to 5884; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish increased by 3.92% to 530; the import cost of Western American Fish increased by 3.87% to 4344; the import cost of Chilean Venus remained unchanged at 4830 [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.72% [1] - The shipment volume of pulp to China in July 2025 was 135.3 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.30% [1] - The domestic production volume of broadleaf pulp in August 2025 was 20.5 tons; the domestic production volume of chemimechanical pulp was 20.9 tons [1] - As of August 28, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 208.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 2.3% [1] - The production volume of offset paper in August 2025 was 20.7 tons; the production volume of coated paper was 7.8 tons; the production volume of tissue paper was 27.9 tons; the production volume of white cardboard was 31.1 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On September 3, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was -164, and the quantile level was 0.368; the basis of Silver Star was -144, and the quantile level was 0.503; the basis of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 670 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 150, and the quantile level was 0.876; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was not provided [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025; Chile's Arauco notified the August quotation, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at $720/ton, the price of broadleaf pulp Star at $520/ton, and the supply reduced by 50%, and the price of natural pulp Venus at $590/ton [1] - Demand: The current demand for paper products remains at a stable level, and some offset paper and white cardboard paper mills have issued price increase letters, but the implementation situation remains to be observed [1] - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports showed a de - stocking trend [1]
纸浆数据日报-20250903
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 07:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spread between the November and January contracts is expected to narrow [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Pulp Price Data - On September 2, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2511, and SP2509 were 5344, 5042, and 4990 respectively, with daily changes of 0.15%, 0.04%, and 0.08% and weekly changes of -0.55%, -0.60% respectively [1] - Spot prices of coniferous pulp (Silver Star, Russian Needle) and broadleaf pulp (Goldfish) were 5720, 5200, and 4200 respectively, with daily changes of 0.35%, 1.96%, and 0.48% and weekly changes of -1.38%, 0.39%, and 1.20% respectively [1] - Outer - disk quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 720, 530, and 590 dollars respectively, with monthly changes of -2.70%, 3.92%, and 0.00% respectively [1] - Import costs of Chilean Silver Star, Brazilian Goldfish, and Chilean Venus were 5884, 4344, and 4830 respectively, with monthly changes of -2.68%, 3.87%, and 0.00% respectively [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.72% compared to June [1] - The pulp shipment volume to China in July 2025 was 140 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.30% compared to June [1] - On August 28, 2025, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 20.6 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 20.9 tons [1] - On August 28, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 208.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3% [1] - The inventory of the futures delivery warehouse on August 28, 2025, was 24.9 tons [1] - The production volumes of double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard on August 28, 2025, were 20.50, 7.90, 28.18, and 32.10 tons respectively [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On September 2, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle and Silver Star were 158 and 678 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.881 and 0.898 [1] - On September 2, 2025, the import profits of coniferous pulp (Silver Star) and broadleaf pulp (Goldfish) were - 164 and - 144 respectively, with quantile levels of 0.368 and 0.503 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply: Brazilian Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chilean Arauco notified the August quotes, with the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, the supply of broadleaf pulp Star decreased by 50%, and the price of natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [1] - Demand: The current demand for paper products is basically stable. Some double - offset paper and white cardboard manufacturers have issued price increase letters, but the implementation remains to be observed [1] - Inventory: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 208.4 tons, showing a destocking trend [1]
纸浆数据日报-20250902
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:35
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the spread between the November and January contracts is expected to narrow [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 1, 2025, SP2601 was 5336, down 0.15% day-on-day and 1.22% week-on-week; SP2511 was 5040, up 0.44% day-on-day and down 1.87% week-on-week; SP2509 was 4986, up 0.40% day-on-day and down 2.00% week-on-week [1] - **Spot Prices**: On September 1, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5700, unchanged day-on-day and down 1.72% week-on-week; Russian Needle was 5100, unchanged day-on-day and down 1.54% week-on-week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4180, unchanged day-on-day and up 0.72% week-on-week [1] - **Outer - Disk Quotes**: In September 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1] - **Import Costs**: In September 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - **Import Volume**: In July 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 64.6 tons, down 4.72% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.1 tons, down 5.85% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Production**: In the week of August 28, 2025, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 20.6 tons; chemimechanical pulp was 20.9 tons [1] Inventory - **Port Inventory**: On August 28, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 208.4 tons, down 4.8 tons from the previous period, a 2.3% decrease [1] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On August 28, 2025, it was 24.9 tons [1] Demand - **Finished Paper Production**: In the week of August 28, 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.50 tons; coated paper was 7.90 tons; tissue paper was 28.18 tons; white cardboard was 32.10 tons [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On September 1, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 60, with a quantile level of 0.812; Silver Star basis was 660, with a quantile level of 0.889 [1] - **Import Profit**: On September 1, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 184, with a quantile level of 0.338; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 164, with a quantile level of 0.477 [1] Summary - **Supply**: Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025. Chile's Arauco notified August quotes, with coniferous pulp Silver Star at 720 dollars/ton, broadleaf pulp Star at 520 dollars/ton (supply reduced by 50%), and natural pulp Venus at 590 dollars/ton [1] - **Demand**: Current paper product demand is basically stable. Some offset paper and white cardboard paper mills have issued price increase letters, and the implementation situation remains to be seen [1] - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 208.4 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [1]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250828
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:23
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Liu Youran, Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Feng Zeren [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures 01 contract: The previous settlement price was 5,392 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.89%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,000 - 6,650 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quote for Shandong Silver Star was 5,720 - 5,750 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's August wood pulp FOB prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star at $720/ton, natural pulp Venus at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Star at $520/ton, remaining stable compared to June quotes [8] - Global pulp data: In June, the chemical commodity pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with coniferous pulp down 2.4% and hardwood pulp up 10.1%. In July 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 683,200 tons, a 0.3% month - on - month decrease and an 8.7% year - on - year increase; the European wood pulp consumption was 814,200 tons, a 6.8% month - on - month increase and a 2.1% year - on - year decrease. China's pulp imports in July were 2.877 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 23.7% year - on - year increase. As of August 21, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.59% month - on - month. In July, the cumulative year - on - year profit of the papermaking and paper products industry decreased by 21.9%, with the decline slightly expanding [8] Operation Suggestions - With limited cost guidance and a loose supply, waiting for the peak - season demand to emerge, pulp is in a low - level oscillatory adjustment [8] Group 3: Industry News - Suzano plans to adjust pulp order prices next month. The pulp prices in China and other Asian countries will be increased by $20/ton, while those in Europe and the US will be increased by $80/ton. Analysts from BTG Pactual are positive about this measure, believing that the current price of nearly $500/ton in China is "unsustainably low". Bradesco BBI expects the commodity price to reach $550/ton in the next few months, supported by more favorable seasonal factors at the end of the third quarter, the Sino - US trade truce, and possible supply restrictions due to high production costs [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, coniferous - hardwood price differences, inter - period price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, copperplate paper and offset paper prices and price differences, white cardboard and whiteboard paper prices and price differences, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][22][29][32]
纸浆数据日报-20250819
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 12:15
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The fundamentals of pulp are strongly driven, but commodity futures are weak. It is expected that pulp futures will fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - Futures prices: On August 18, 2025, SP2601 was 5476, down 0.90% day-on-day and up 0.07% week-on-week; SP2511 was 5308, down 0.23% day-on-day and up 0.08% week-on-week; SP2509 was 5200, down 0.84% day-on-day and down 0.04% week-on-week [1] - Spot prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged day-on-day and week-on-week; Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged day-on-day and up 0.95% week-on-week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged day-on-day and up 1.20% week-on-week [1] - Foreign offers: Chilean Silver Star's foreign offer was 720, down 2.70% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510, up 4.08% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 620, unchanged month-on-month [1] - Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month-on-month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month-on-month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month-on-month [1] Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - Import volume in June 2025: Coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month-on-month compared to May; Broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month-on-month compared to May [1] - Shipment volume to China in May 2025 was 140 tons, up 3.30% month-on-month compared to April [1] - Domestic production: Broadleaf pulp and Chemimechanical pulp showed fluctuations in different periods [1] - Supply-side news: Brazil's Suzano announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commercial pulp production in the next 12 months will be about 3.5% lower than its annual nominal capacity; Asia Symbol announced a 150 yuan/ton increase in the acceptance price of broadleaf pulp, only for long-term contract customers; pulp foreign offers decreased in volume and increased in price [1] Demand - This week, the output of major finished paper increased slightly, but the prices of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp overall [2] Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, an increase of 5.1 tons from the previous period, a 2.5% month-on-month increase, showing an inventory accumulation trend [2] Pulp Valuation Data - On August 18, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was -6, with a quantile level of 0.68; the Silver Star basis was 544, with a quantile level of 0.857 [1] - On August 18, 2025, the import profit of Coniferous pulp Silver Star was -34, with a quantile level of 0.547; the import profit of Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 18, with a quantile level of 0.653 [1]