日本央行行长植田和男：关于ETF持仓的立场保持不变。即使关税问题得到解决，经济受到的影响仍存 在较高的不确定性。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Citigroup predicts a potential turning point for the historically rising gold prices, warning that gold prices may drop below the psychological threshold of $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, signaling the end of the current commodity market rally [1][3] - The analysis team led by Max Layton indicates that by the second half of 2026, international gold prices may return to the range of $2500 to $2700, driven by multiple factors creating downward pressure, including a decline in investment demand as risk aversion diminishes and a gradual improvement in global economic growth expectations [3] - The report highlights that the core drivers of the recent surge in gold prices were geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with a 30% increase attributed to market volatility from the Trump administration's trade policies and escalating Middle East tensions [3] Group 2 - Current spot gold prices are hovering around $3396, with Citigroup providing a 60% probability forecast that gold prices will fluctuate above $3000 in the next quarter before entering a correction phase, reflecting a reassessment of the global economic outlook [4] - The anticipated value correction in the gold market is expected to test investors' risk appetite and indicates a significant turning point as the interplay between risk demand and policy expectations evolves [4] - The report warns that the supportive factors for gold prices, such as concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves, are undergoing qualitative changes, particularly as the 2025 U.S. midterm elections approach [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan indicates that price trends may align with the outlook targets for the second half of the year, despite facing high uncertainty regarding the economy and prices [1] Economic Outlook - The economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainty, which could impact future monetary policy decisions and economic forecasts [1]

Group 1 - Gold has become the second largest reserve asset for global central banks, surpassing the euro, driven by record purchasing volumes and rising prices [1][4] - The European Central Bank reports that gold reserves have reached 36,000 tons, comparable to levels seen in 1965, with gold expected to account for 20% of global official reserves by 2024 [2][3] - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually, representing 20% of global annual production, with significant purchases from countries like China, India, Turkey, and Poland [4] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently fluctuating, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty, with market sentiment cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data [5] - The trend of de-dollarization has accelerated since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with central banks increasingly viewing gold as a hedge against sanctions and geopolitical risks [5] - Wells Fargo predicts that uncertainties will drive gold prices higher, with expectations of a price drop to $3,000-$3,200 per ounce by year-end, followed by a rise to $3,600 by the end of 2026 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Inditex, the owner of Zara, reported weaker-than-expected quarterly sales and indicated a slower start to the summer season amid economic uncertainty [1][2]. Financial Performance - Inditex reported revenues of 8.27 billion euros ($9.44 billion) for the fiscal first quarter from February 1 to April 30, falling short of the 8.39 billion euros forecast by analysts [2]. - The net income for the quarter was 1.3 billion euros, slightly below the 1.32 billion euros estimated by analysts [2]. Sales Trends - The company experienced a slower start to summer sales, with a 6% increase at constant currencies from May 1 to June 9, compared to a 12% growth in the same period last year [2]. - In March, Inditex had already indicated a slowdown in demand at the beginning of the year, which was attributed to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to benefit from ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty, with predictions of reaching historical highs by 2026 [3] - Analysts suggest that the significant adjustments in commodity prices create attractive opportunities for economic improvement later this year and in 2026, particularly in cyclical sectors [3] - There is a recommendation for investors to shift towards sectors that may benefit from macroeconomic improvements, such as energy and precious metals [3] Group 2 - Current technical analysis indicates that spot gold has shown slight increases but is forming a bearish flag pattern, suggesting continued selling pressure [4] - The price is being suppressed by the EMA50, and the RSI indicator shows a divergence, reinforcing the likelihood of a continued downward trend [5]

美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔韦托·穆萨莱姆日前接受英国《金融时报》采访时说，美国总统唐 纳德·特朗普的关税政策可能导致美国通货膨胀率持续居高。他警告说，直到今年夏天结束，美国政策 制定者都将面临经济不确定性。穆萨莱姆说，假如美国贸易和财政政策的不确定性能在"7月消散"，美 联储才可能筹备9月降息。（央视新闻） ...

Group 1 - The U.S. job market remains stable, but there are emerging cracks that could pose significant challenges in the coming months [1] - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, slightly above market expectations but below April's 147,000 [1] - The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with the underemployment rate remaining at 7.8% [1] Group 2 - Job growth is primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, but these industries face potential growth limitations due to proposed policy changes [2] - The proposed spending bill includes a $700 billion cut to federal Medicaid spending and increased costs for ACA enrollment, which could severely impact the healthcare sector that has contributed about 30% of new jobs over the past three years [2] - The leisure and hospitality sector may also be affected by new tariff policies, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending and job impacts [2] Group 3 - Job seekers' confidence is declining, with about 40% of job seekers lacking confidence in the current job market, and nearly one-third expecting fewer job opportunities in the next six months [2] - There is a growing disparity in the job market, where those already employed are faring better than new job seekers, particularly recent graduates [3] - Knowledge-based job growth in sectors like finance, marketing, and software development is weak, while professional and business services are cutting positions [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicates a contraction in overall economic activity, with businesses and households becoming increasingly cautious in their decision-making [3] - Recruitment levels are stable, but low employee turnover suggests that companies remain cautious about adding new positions [3]

Core Insights - The reports reveal how U.S. businesses are responding to the unpredictable tariff policies of President Donald Trump, primarily by raising prices and slowing down hiring [2][3] Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates that half of the regions reported a "slight to moderate" decline in economic activity, with three regions reporting no growth [2] - All regions reported increased levels of economic and policy uncertainty, leading to hesitance in decision-making among businesses and households [3] Business Responses - Many businesses are stockpiling goods expected to be affected by tariffs, reflecting a cautious approach to inventory management [2][4] - A significant number of manufacturers (50%) reported price increases on goods subject to tariffs, with 31% of businesses stockpiling inventory and 43% reporting a decline in net profits [5] Hiring and Investment - Due to tariff-related uncertainties, many employers are delaying hiring, with reports of slight decreases in employee numbers in the manufacturing sector [4][6] - Nearly a quarter of service sector businesses are cutting capital investments in the U.S. [6] Small Business Impact - Small business owners express that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is creating significant challenges, with some reporting their slowest sales months [7][8] - The unpredictable nature of tariff implementation complicates business operations, making it difficult for companies to make clear procurement decisions or long-term plans [10][12]

19 CSI C 46 ura inter 图页 r BB I 生假 n a great I (90) · FORSEMANA care . INE u one L | and 1 (GB) ro m @11 00 1 11 0 1 国 eman appens a com 关于关税问题，《褐皮书》中频繁提及"关税"和"不确定性"相关词汇，突显了当前美国经济面临的挑战。许多企业预计未来成本和价格将上升，并表示关税 增加对成本和价格带来上行压力。企业对于物价上升的预期存在差异，部分计划将关税成本转嫁给消费者，同时采取措施应对潜在风险。 而美国近期针对 大量进口商品实施的高额关税措施，加剧了市场的不确定性。美国最近还宣布对钢铁和铝产品的关税提高，这种政策的变化使得经济前景更加不确定。 根据美联储发布的最新经济形势报告《褐皮书》显示，近期美国经济活动的略微下降，暗示着贸易关税和高度不确定性对经济产生了广泛影响。这份报告是 美联储每年发布的重要参考资料之一，由圣路易斯联邦储备银行编撰，汇总了十二家地区联储对全美经济情况的调查结果。 根据报告内容，自上一份《褐皮书》发布以来，美国经济活动略有下降。所有辖区反映出经济和政策 ...