智通财经5月21日电，美联储博斯蒂克表示，需观察经济走向后再采取行动，不确定性增加可能会延长 政策调整的时间。 ...

Group 1 - The current uncertainty is very high, with the Swiss franc being viewed as a safe haven during uncertain times [1] - Economic growth in Switzerland for 2025 is expected to be below previous forecasts [1]

美联储威廉姆斯：经济的关键词是不确定性。 ...

摩根大通首席财务官：经济存在重大不确定性。 ...

Macroeconomic Environment - The US CPI and core CPI growth rates in April were lower than expected, indicating that tariffs have not significantly pushed inflation upward [2] - Retail data in April showed a substantial slowdown, likely due to a decrease in preemptive purchases by households before tariff implementation [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to remain cautious, with market predictions for interest rate cuts reduced from three to two [2] - In Europe, officials indicated that US tariff policies could lead to greater recessionary pressures in the Eurozone, potentially allowing for further interest rate cuts [2] Domestic Economic Conditions - China's CPI growth rate in April was negative for the third consecutive month, primarily affected by oil prices, while core CPI remained stable [3] - The PPI decline was exacerbated by falling prices in downstream industries due to tariff impacts [3] - Financial data showed an increase in social financing in April, supported by government bond issuance and a decline in credit bond rates, although corporate and household credit demand remained weak [3] - The central bank emphasized a flexible monetary policy approach, focusing on high-quality development to address external uncertainties [3] High-Frequency Data - Real estate transactions remained weak, while agricultural wholesale prices decreased [3] - Steel prices increased, but cement prices fell [3] - Upstream, coking coal and coke prices rose slightly, while non-ferrous metal prices generally increased [3] Fixed Income Market - The trade relationship has shown temporary easing, leading to upward pressure on interest rates [5] - In April, exports to the US saw a significant decline, but transshipment trade supported exports to ASEAN, which increased by 20.8% [6] - The central bank's net withdrawal of over 400 billion yuan did not prevent a decline in funding rates, with DR007 and DR001 falling to approximately 1.50% and 1.40% respectively [6] - The primary market saw 67 new bond issues totaling 946.4 billion yuan, with net financing of 658.7 billion yuan, indicating a higher than usual issuance pace [6] Market Outlook - The upcoming months may see a further manifestation of export rush effects, but domestic inflationary pressures are expected to remain limited [7] - The easing of large-scale policy expectations following positive developments in US-China talks may temper market sentiment [7] - The recent monetary policy adjustments are anticipated to lead to a downward shift in funding rate benchmarks, potentially limiting the rise in bond market yields [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank predicts a significant slowdown in the US economic growth to 1.4% for this year, with a projected increase of 2.8% in 2024 [1] Economic Outlook - The bank's investment strategy managing director, Vasu Menon, highlights the uncertainty surrounding Trump's 10% universal tariffs and erratic trade policies, which may impact the US economy and businesses in the coming months [1] - There is considerable economic uncertainty that has weakened confidence in US assets, as indicated by surveys showing a decline in both business and consumer confidence [1] Data Interpretation - Current soft data regarding economic performance raises questions about whether it will translate into significant hard data weakness, potentially leading to an economic recession [1]

【冠通研究】 经济不确定性预期，盘面区间震荡 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 9 日 【策略分析】 沪铜开盘低开高走日内收跌，基本面来看，供给端，5 月国内有多家冶炼厂有检修 计划，预计电解铜影响量在 2.1 万吨；7-9 月仍有集中检修计划 4 月中国未锻造铜及铜 材进口量达 43.8 万吨，单月数据同比持平。TC/RC 费用延续负值并且负值不断扩大，硫 酸价格高位运行，弥补了冶炼厂部分亏损，但是冶炼厂库存趋紧。需求端，假期后需求 恢复缓慢，下游开工率上行，4 月线缆企业开工率达 86.3%，环比+3.2%，5 月订单预计 环比增长 8-10%，现货铜价格表现强劲，库存大幅去化背景下，市场表示对需求的强预 期。4 月份，中国制造业 PMI 为 49.0%，比上月下降 1.5 个百分点，为今年以来这一指数 首次回落。4 月财新中国通用服务业经营活动指数（服务业 PMI）录得 50.7，低于 3 月 1.2 个百分点，在扩张区间降至七个月来最低。综合来看，国际市场不确定性高，美联 储按兵不动，市场对经济悲观预期仍存，基本面供需双弱，下游需求持续性存疑，但国 内库存整体偏低，市场近期交易宏观信息为主，国内刺激政策 ...

就业市场同样承压，招聘机构调查显示企业正搁置投资计划并缩减招聘规模。毕马威会计师事务所 与招聘和就业联合会（REC）联合调查显示，3月招聘活动持续萎缩，雇主普遍提及"经济不确定性、预 算紧缩及客户活动减少"等因素。REC称："固定岗位招聘量已连续30个月下降，缩减速度与2月基本持 平。" 毕马威高级合伙人乔恩·霍尔特指出："当前全球不确定性达到峰值，企业既要应对市场波动，又要 消化用工成本上升。最新数据印证经济现实持续拖累劳动力市场。" （原标题：英国零售业担忧特朗普关税影响导致商业街客流下滑） 《卫报》4月11日消息，最新数据显示，英国商业街3月客流量同比下降5%，延续了2月的颓势。零 售商警告称，若特朗普关税战引发的经济阴云打击消费者信心，情况可能进一步恶化。 自1月促销季短暂复苏后，通胀回升与家庭收入压力持续影响消费。郊区购物中心受创最重，客流 量下降5.8%，传统商业街和零售园区客流量分别减少4%和1.2%，销售额同步下滑。 英国零售商协会指出，美国对进口商品加征关税的直接影响尚难量化，但可能抑制消费者购买意 愿，尤其是高价商品。该机构首席执行官海伦·狄金森表示："关税引发的全球不确定性及潜在经济放 ...

美国初请人数下降，与鲍威尔的说法一致 金十数据5月8日讯，美国上周初请失业金人数有所下降，此前正值春季假期和4月底的复活节假期，初 请人数曾出现短期飙升。截至5月3日当周，初请失业金人数减少1.3万人，至22.8万人。这与经济学家的 预测中值大致相符。上周续请失业金人数也下降至188万人。这表明尽管在关税和特朗普政府缩减联邦 政府的行动带来了连锁反应，经济不确定性增加，但裁员水平依然较低。美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示， 尽管关税可能导致失业率和通胀率上升，但劳动力市场仍然稳固。"人们感到压力和担忧。但失业率没 有上升，创造就业机会情况良好，工资状况良好。""初请失业金人数并没有以任何令人惊讶的方式增 加。因此，经济本身仍处于稳健状态，"鲍威尔说。 ...