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银河证券:一季度50BP的降准仍有望落地,全面降息需等待时机
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-16 00:45
银河证券指出,2026年1月15日,央行发布2025年12月金融数据,并举行新闻发布会。12月的金融数据 有两个重要的积极信号,一是再次显示居民存款搬家正在进行,二是企业中长期贷款出现回暖。新闻发 布会上,人民银行推出八项结构性货币政策措施,并强调在实施过程中,将与财政贴息、担保和风险成 本分担等财政政策协同配合。同时,央行指出今年降准降息还有一定空间。结构性货币政策工具的宽松 在1月份率先落地,符合我们12月25日发布的四季度货币政策委员会例会解读的判断。我们认为当下货 币政策呈现与财政政策高度协同发力的特征,一季度50BP的降准仍有望落地,保持流动性充裕配合政 府债券发行,全面降息仍需等待时机。稳预期(外部)、稳就业(内部)、稳市场(金融)将是观察全 面降息可能落地的主线。 ...
结构性“降息”来了,央行还提到这些
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2026-01-16 00:26
中国人民银行副行长邹澜今天在国新办发布会上表示,中央经济工作会议已经明确,2026年要继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策,人民银行将按照党中央、国务院决策部署,加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度,有效 支持"十五五"开好局、起好步。 邹澜介绍,根据当前经济金融形势需要,人民银行将先行推出两方面政策措施。一方面是下调各类结构 性货币政策工具利率,提高银行重点领域信贷投放的积极性。另一方面是完善结构性工具并加大支持力 度,进一步助力经济结构转型优化。 具体包括以下几项: 一是下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。各类再贷款一年期利率从目前的1.5%下调到 1.25%,其他期限档次利率同步调整。 四是合并设立科技创新与民营企业债券风险分担工具。将此前已经设立的民营企业债券融资支持工具、 科技创新债券风险分担工具合并管理,合计提供再贷款额度2000亿元。 五是拓展碳减排支持工具的支持领域。纳入节能改造、绿色升级、能源绿色低碳转型等更多具有碳减排 效应的项目,引导银行支持全面绿色转型。 六是拓展服务消费与养老再贷款的支持领域。结合健康产业认定标准,适时在服务消费与养老再贷款的 支持领域中纳入健康产业。 七是会同金融监管总局 ...
中金:从结构性降息理解宏观政策路径
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 23:49
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 中金点睛 结构性货币政策中与房地产和基建更相关的PSL总量相比2024年已经大幅下降、近期止跌,2026年的方 向可能更加重视科技创新、绿色发展、服务业发展以及帮助民营企业等。2025年1季度,央行结构性货 币政策工具总量为5.9万亿元[3],相比2024年4季度下降了4000亿元。此后,央行不再继续公布结构性货 币政策总量工具的总体数据。根据我们的跟踪,市场非常熟悉、曾经在棚改货币化、政策性开发性金融 工具中起到重要作用的抵押补充贷款(PSL)余额整体上是在下降的(图表2),2025年12月抵押补充 贷款余额为1.02万亿元,相比去年同期2.36万亿元下降了1.34万亿元。2025年4季度以来降幅有所放缓、 环比开始持平,可能与新一轮政策性开发性金融工具落地有关。 从这次宣布的政策来看,结构性货币政策工具围绕"五篇大文章"进一步落地,在养老金融领域拓展服务 消费与养老再贷款的支持领域,在科技金融领域"将科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度从8000亿元增加至 1.2万亿元",在绿色金融领域"拓展碳减排支持工具的支持领域"。在普惠金融领域尤其重 ...
央行发布八项金融政策;菲律宾宣布对中国公民免签|21早新闻
Macro Economy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to implement eight policy measures to enhance credit support in key areas, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates [1] - The PBOC's financial statistics indicate that the total social financing scale for 2025 is projected to reach 35.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.34 trillion yuan, and RMB loans are expected to increase by 16.27 trillion yuan [3] - The Ministry of Commerce aims to combine policies and activities to stimulate consumption and release potential in service consumption, commodity consumption, and lower-tier market consumption by 2026 [3] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a tax exemption on interest income from bonds issued by foreign institutions in China until December 31, 2027 [3] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and the Ministry of Finance issued guidelines to expand the coverage of enterprise annuities, allowing flexible contribution ratios within limits [3] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration emphasized the need to effectively manage risks in small financial institutions during its 2026 regulatory work meeting [3] - The State Grid's fixed asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [3] Investment News - On January 15, the Shanghai Composite Index briefly fell below 4,100 points, closing down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.28%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.35% [6] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the margin ratio and trading limits for tin futures contracts [6] - The Huaan Gold ETF has surpassed 100 billion yuan in scale, becoming the first commodity ETF in China to reach this milestone [6] Company Movements - SF Holding and Jitu Express announced a strategic mutual shareholding agreement with an investment amount of 8.3 billion Hong Kong dollars [7] - Qianwen App has integrated with Alibaba's ecosystem, enabling AI shopping functionalities for various services [7] - Xibei is set to close 102 stores, accounting for about 30% of its total outlets, as confirmed by its chairman [7] - Xiaomi Auto has introduced a low-interest policy for its YU7 series, with down payments starting at 49,900 yuan [7] - TSMC reported a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, exceeding expectations [8] - Longpan Technology anticipates procurement transactions with CATL not exceeding 7 billion yuan in 2026 [9] - Luoyang Molybdenum plans to use up to 20 billion yuan of its own funds for financial management and entrusted financial management [10] - SAIC Motor expects a net profit increase of 438%-558% year-on-year for 2025, with wholesale vehicle sales projected at 4.5075 million units [11]
再贷款利率、再贴现利率1月19日起下调
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 23:10
能否拿到更便宜的资金,取决于银行的资金投向。 科技创新和技术改造再贷款、服务消费与养老再贷款、普惠小微贷款支持工具、碳减排支持工具……近 年来,结构性货币政策工具箱不断"上新",实现对金融"五篇大文章"的全覆盖,并支持了房地产、资本 市场等重点领域。 专家介绍,中国人民银行的结构性货币政策工具,主要是引导金融机构加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄 弱环节的支持力度。这些领域,初期社会资金进入意愿比较低,需要央行资金先期进入、发挥引导作 用。 结构性"降息"来了 再贷款利率、再贴现利率1月19日起下调 中国人民银行1月15日宣布,自2026年1月19日起,下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点。这意味着, 银行从中国人民银行"借钱"将更便宜,有助于提升重点领域信贷投放的积极性,进一步助力经济结构转 型优化。 这种结构性"降息"与全面降息有很大区别,不是通过下调政策利率带动贷款市场报价利率(LPR)下 行。再贷款是央行对银行的贷款,不是央行直接向企业发放贷款。下调再贷款、再贴现利率后,拿到更 低成本资金的银行,或以更低利率向小微企业、科技创新、绿色转型等重点领域发放贷款,降低实体经 济综合融资成本。 记者了解到,下调后 ...
加大结构性货币政策工具支持力度
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 23:10
中国人民银行推出八项举措 四是合并设立科技创新与民营企业债券风险分担工具,将此前已经设立的民营企业债券融资支持工具、 科技创新债券风险分担工具合并管理,合计提供再贷款额度2000亿元。 五是拓展碳减排支持工具的支持领域,纳入节能改造、绿色升级、能源绿色低碳转型等更多具有碳减排 效应的项目,引导银行支持全面绿色转型。 六是拓展服务消费与养老再贷款的支持领域,结合健康产业认定标准,适时在服务消费与养老再贷款的 支持领域中纳入健康产业。 七是会同金融监管总局将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30%。 八是鼓励金融机构提升汇率避险服务水平,丰富汇率避险产品,为企业提供成本合理、灵活有效的汇率 风险管理工具。 加大结构性货币政策工具支持力度 新华社北京1月15日电 中国人民银行副行长邹澜1月15日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上介绍,根据当前 经济金融形势需要,中国人民银行将推出八项政策措施,提高银行重点领域信贷投放的积极性,加大结 构性货币政策工具支持力度,进一步助力经济结构转型优化。 一是下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点。各类再贷款一年期利率从目前的1.5%下调到 1.25%,其他期限档次利率同步调整。 ...
中国人民银行推出八项举措 加大结构性货币政策工具支持力度
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 22:31
(来源:南京晨报) 六是拓展服务消费与养老再贷款的支持领域,结合健康产业认定标准,适时在服务消费与养老再贷款的 支持领域中纳入健康产业。 七是会同金融监管总局将商业用房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至30%。 八是鼓励金融机构提升汇率避险服务水平,丰富汇率避险产品,为企业提供成本合理、灵活有效的汇率 风险管理工具。 二是合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度,增加支农支小再贷款额度5000亿元,总额度中单设一项民 营企业再贷款,额度1万亿元,重点支持中小民营企业。 三是增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度并扩大支持范围,将科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度从8000亿 元,增加4000亿元至1.2万亿元,并将研发投入水平较高的民营中小企业等纳入支持领域。 四是合并设立科技创新与民营企业债券风险分担工具,将此前已经设立的民营企业债券融资支持工具、 科技创新债券风险分担工具合并管理,合计提供再贷款额度2000亿元。 五是拓展碳减排支持工具的支持领域,纳入节能改造、绿色升级、能源绿色低碳转型等更多具有碳减排 效应的项目,引导银行支持全面绿色转型。 转自:南京晨报 中国人民银行副行长邹澜1月15日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上介绍,根据当前 ...
结构性“降息”来了
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 22:30
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing eight policy measures to enhance credit support in key areas, aiming to facilitate economic structural transformation and optimization. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year relending rate reduced from 1.5% to 1.25% [1] - The PBOC has merged the agricultural and small enterprise relending with the rediscount quota, increasing the agricultural and small enterprise relending quota by 500 billion, with a total quota specifically for private enterprises set at 1 trillion [1] Group 2: Support for Innovation and Green Transition - The relending quota for technological innovation and technological transformation has been increased from 800 billion to 1.2 trillion, expanding the support to high R&D investment private small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - The PBOC has expanded the carbon reduction support tool to include more projects with carbon reduction effects, guiding banks to support comprehensive green transformation [2] Group 3: Financial Support for Consumption and Housing - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been lowered to 30% in collaboration with the financial regulatory authority [3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance foreign exchange risk management services, providing cost-effective and flexible tools for enterprises to manage exchange rate risks [3]
今年降准降息还有一定空间
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 22:30
新华社电 中国人民银行1月15日宣布,自2026年1月19日起,下调再贷款、再贴现利率0.25个百分点。这 意味着,银行从中国人民银行"借钱"将更便宜,有助于提升重点领域信贷投放的积极性,进一步助力经 济结构转型优化。 这种结构性"降息"与全面降息有很大区别,不是通过下调政策利率带动贷款市场报价利率(LPR)下 行。再贷款是央行对银行的贷款,不是央行直接向企业发放贷款。下调再贷款、再贴现利率后,拿到更 低成本资金的银行,或以更低利率向小微企业、科技创新、绿色转型等重点领域发放贷款,降低实体经 济综合融资成本。 (来源:新华日报) 能否拿到更便宜的资金,取决于银行的资金投向。 中国人民银行副行长邹澜1月15日在国新办新闻发布会上表示,今年降准降息还有一定空间。中国人民 银行下调各项再贷款利率有助于降低银行付息成本、稳定净息差,为降息创造一定空间。 专家介绍,中国人民银行的结构性货币政策工具,主要是引导金融机构加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄 弱环节的支持力度。这些领域,初期社会资金进入意愿比较低,需要央行资金先期进入、发挥引导作 用。 "结构性'降息'有利于强化对商业银行的政策激励作用,更传递出明确的政策信号,吸引 ...
央行推出八项举措
Core Viewpoint - The government is increasing financial support for technology innovation and small private enterprises, while also adjusting monetary policy tools to stimulate economic growth. Group 1: Financial Support Measures - The total quota for re-loans for technological innovation and technological transformation will increase to 1.2 trillion yuan, including support for private small and medium-sized enterprises with high R&D investment levels [1] - An additional 500 billion yuan will be allocated to the re-loan quota for agriculture and small enterprises, with a total quota specifically for private enterprises set at 1 trillion yuan [1] - A combined risk-sharing tool for technology innovation and private enterprise bonds will be established [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The interest rates for various structural monetary policy tools will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year re-loan rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.25% [1] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans will be lowered to 30% [1] Group 3: Support for Carbon Reduction and Health Industry - The support areas for carbon reduction tools will be expanded to include more projects with energy-saving transformation effects [1] - The health industry will be included in the support areas for service consumption and elderly care re-loans [1] Group 4: Financial Institutions and Currency Risk - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance their foreign exchange risk hedging services and diversify foreign exchange hedging products [1]