Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields remain stable as investors focus on the ongoing government shutdown, which has entered its ninth day, while awaiting a breakthrough in the situation [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - The yields on the benchmark 10-year, 2-year, and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds have all increased by less than 1 basis point [1] - Despite the government shutdown, the auction of 10-year Treasury bonds on Wednesday went relatively smoothly, boosting market confidence in U.S. Treasuries [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Investors are looking towards the minutes from the Federal Reserve's recent meeting for clues about future policy directions, with a consensus among officials on the rate cut in September but differing views on future cuts [1] - The current money market indicates a 95% probability of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [1] Group 3: Government Shutdown Impacts - The ongoing government shutdown is causing a continuous expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit, leading traders to closely monitor investor demand for U.S. Treasuries [1] - The shutdown has resulted in a halt to the release of official data, adding uncertainty to the market and increasing risks [1] - Investors are weighing their options carefully, considering the implications of the government shutdown on future policies and market trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline on October 7, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.1249% before reaching a daily low of 4.1114% [1] Summary by Relevant Sections U.S. Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.71 basis points, closing at 4.1249% [1] - The yield reached a daily high of 4.1753% before declining [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 2.06 basis points, ending at 3.5677%, with a trading range of 3.6028%-3.5615% [1] Yield Spread - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields narrowed by 0.864 basis points, reported at +55.498 basis points [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. monthly employment report is critical for investors in U.S. Treasuries, as it may influence confidence in the Federal Reserve's potential rate cut in October [1] - Recent economic data has shown stronger-than-expected results, leading traders to reduce bets on further easing from the Federal Reserve, despite an 80% probability of a rate cut at the October 28-29 meeting [1][2] - The employment report is seen as a key driver for U.S. Treasury yields, with a need for sufficiently weak data to further lower yields, as indicated by investment manager James Athey [1] Group 2 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.2% after hitting a five-month low of just below 4% on September 17, influenced by a drop in initial jobless claims and strong second-quarter economic growth [2] - The bond market has been buoyed by the Federal Reserve's adjustments to interest rates in response to a weak labor market, with U.S. Treasuries up 5.1% year-to-date, on track for the best performance since 2020 [2] - The upcoming employment report is expected to show an increase of 50,000 non-farm jobs in September, a rebound from the previous three-month average of less than 30,000 [2] Group 3 - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concerns over tariff-driven inflation and opposed calls for preemptive multiple rate cuts, while Michelle Bowman argued for further cuts due to a weakening job market [3] - Market positioning reflects a divide, with some traders betting on a decline in the 10-year yield to 4% by the end of November, while others increase short positions in Treasuries [3] - Vanguard's global head of fixed income noted a balance between the downside risks from labor market weakness and the upside risks from improving economic growth, indicating a preference for buying bonds if yields rise to the higher end of recent ranges [3]

Core Points - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose by 0.57 basis points to 4.1755% on September 26, marking a cumulative increase of 4.81 basis points for the week [1] - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased by 1.23 basis points to 3.6430%, with a weekly increase of 7.15 basis points [1] - The PCE inflation data favored by the Federal Reserve was released at 20:30 Beijing time, causing fluctuations in the 2-year bond yield [1] Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year Treasury yield experienced a drop to 4.0965% on September 24 before rebounding to 4.1989% on September 25 [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell to a low of 3.557% at the beginning of the Asia-Pacific trading session on September 24, then rose to 3.6676% on September 25 [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. new home sales data for August exceeded expectations, alleviating concerns about the U.S. economy [1][2] - The 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields rose following the positive data release [1] Group 1: Economic Data - August new home sales were annualized at 800,000 units, significantly higher than the expected 650,000 units and the previous value of 652,000 units, marking the fastest growth since early 2022 [1] - Month-over-month, new home sales surged by 20.5%, contrasting with the expected decline of 0.3% and the previous decline of 0.6% [1] - The inventory of unsold new homes dropped to 490,000 units, the lowest level this year [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The positive data led to a decrease in concerns about the U.S. economy, resulting in adjustments in U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices [2] - LPL Financial's chief economist noted that a recovery in real estate could help the economy avoid recession, suggesting that risk assets typically perform well in non-recessionary rate-cutting cycles [2] Group 3: Future Indicators - Investors are awaiting further economic data releases, including the latest existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the final GDP estimate for Q2 2025 [2] - The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator, is set to be released, which investors hope will provide insights into price pressures and the state of the U.S. economy [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [4][5] - The reasons for the rate cut include slowing economic growth expectations, a low job market, and long-term inflation expectations aligning with the Fed's target [5][6] - Political pressure from the White House, particularly from former President Trump, has been cited as a significant factor influencing the Fed's decision to lower rates [6] Group 2 - The Fed's decision to cut rates raises questions about the potential for a new cycle of monetary easing, with projections indicating a possible further reduction of 50 basis points in 2025 [7] - Despite the rate cut, uncertainties remain regarding the continuity of rate reductions, as inflationary pressures from tariffs could influence future decisions [8] - The stock market is expected to rise due to the Fed's easing policies, while the dollar's exchange rate may decline, complicating trade deficit goals [9][10] Group 3 - The reduction in interest rates could lower the U.S. government's financing costs, but the impact on Treasury yields may be limited due to ongoing debt burdens and political disputes [10] - The Fed's rate cut may benefit developing countries by reducing their dollar debt burdens, but it could also lead to capital inflow challenges and potential financial instability [11] - The global economic landscape may see expanded monetary policy options for other economies, but caution is advised to prevent asset bubbles and financial crises [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of overbought conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields, which have led to an increase in the U.S. dollar index, thereby exerting downward pressure on gold [2][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including GDP, initial jobless claims, and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to balance high inflation risks with a weakening labor market [2] - Powell acknowledged the rising risks in the labor market and inflation, stating that monetary policy remains moderately restrictive but capable of addressing potential economic developments [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with key support levels at 3715 and 3680, and resistance levels at 3780 and 3800 [4]

Core Points - The yield on the US 10-year benchmark Treasury rose by 1.93 basis points to 4.1467% on September 22, with intraday trading between 4.1196% and 4.1505% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 3.15 basis points to 3.6030%, trading within a range of 3.5630% to 3.6072% during the day [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasuries decreased by 1.220 basis points, standing at +54.158 basis points [1] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) rose by 3.72 basis points to 1.7721% [1]

Core Insights - The latest weekly initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased, reversing the previous week's sharp increase, leading to a rise in the Bloomberg Dollar Index to its highest point of the day [1] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000, while continuing claims stood at 1.92 million, also below the forecast of 1.95 million [1] - Analysts view the jobless claims data as robust, but still anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in October [1] Economic Indicators - The Bloomberg Dollar Index increased by 0.4%, marking the largest intraday gain since September 2 [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by approximately 2 basis points to 4.11% [1] - The one-month risk reversal for the Bloomberg Dollar Index rose to about 11.6 basis points, indicating stronger demand for put options compared to call options [1] International Monetary Policy - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted 7 to 2 to maintain interest rates, signaling caution regarding future rate cuts, which led to a decline in the British pound [1] - The GBP/USD fell to an intraday low of 1.3534, with swap traders expecting only one 25 basis point rate cut by the end of 2026 [1] - The Euro/USD decreased by 0.2% to 1.789, despite specific areas seeing buying activity, while fast money continued to sell euros, raising warnings for euro bulls [1] Currency Movements - The USD/JPY rose by 0.6% to 147.89, approaching the 200-day moving average of 148.67 [1] - The Canadian dollar fell by 0.2%, with the USD/CAD reported at 1.3796, although the Canadian dollar outperformed other G-10 currencies [1] - Upcoming important data includes retail sales figures scheduled for release on Friday [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and a resumption of the easing cycle since December of the previous year [1][2] - The decision to lower rates comes amid signs of slowing economic activity, with employment growth decelerating and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2][3] - The Fed's statement removed previous language indicating that labor market conditions were solid, reflecting a shift in focus towards employment risks [2] Group 2 - Following the rate cut announcement, the U.S. dollar index fell to 96.22, the lowest level since February 2022, while gold prices surged, briefly exceeding $3,700 per ounce [1][7] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed may lower rates further, with predictions of two additional cuts in 2025 and a potential reduction to around 3% in the future [5][6] - Financial institutions anticipate further rate cuts in October and December, with some predicting a total reduction of 100 basis points by January [6] Group 3 - The Fed's decision has implications for global monetary policy, potentially opening up space for other central banks to ease their policies as well [6] - The announcement led to a mixed reaction in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow Jones index rising slightly while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced declines [9] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds shifted downward following the rate cut, with expectations of positive excess returns for 10-year bonds [8]