第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 影响金价的因素： 1.美联储降息预期市场对美联储12月降息的概率预期大幅升温至约85%。多位美联储官员（如沃勒、威廉姆斯）发表鸽派言论。 2.美国9月零售销售数据不及预期，消费者信心指数下滑，表明经济可能出现降温。 3.美元指数跌至一周低点。美国国债收益率（10年期）保持在一个月低点附近。 技术面： 金价在4173-4175美元附近面临趋势线阻力，昨日在此区域冲高后震荡，从而抑制金价短期涨幅。 今日个人策略参考： 总的来说，黄金在多重利好推动下短期趋势偏强，但面临关键技术阻力位的考验。 对于短线交易者，可以参考区间震荡的思路，在4170-4175美元阻力区附近留意高抛机会，在4130-4140美元支撑区附近留意低吸机会。由于今日是感恩节假 期，务必轻仓。 对于中长线投资者，黄金的长期牛市逻辑并未被破坏。全球央行购金的长期趋势以及美联储的降息大方向仍构成核心支撑。可以考虑采取 "逢低分批买入" 作为核心策略。 今日思路偏向看空 反弹至4170-4175区域可做空，止损10美金， 目标4150 - 4130美元 如果4130-4140区域 ...

【导读】美联储9月议息会议前重磅消息：米兰成功闯关美联储，库克解雇令被驳回；美国8月零售销售 数据大超预期 中国基金报记者 张舟 美联储本年度 9 月利率决策会议在当地时间 9 月 16 日到 17 日举办。北京时间 9 月 18 日 凌晨 2 点，美联储 FOMC 将公布利率决议结果和经济预期。凌晨 2 点 30 分鲍威尔将召开 新闻发布会。 议息在即。当地时间 9 月 15 日，美联储议息名单发生两大变动：其一，特朗普提名的米兰 获参议院批准出任美联储理事，将在本次会议中拥有 12 张表决票中的一票；其二，美国一上 诉法院驳回特朗普解雇库克的请求，若最高法院未裁决，库克将参与此次议息会议并投票。 特朗普提名米兰美联储理事 " 闯关 " 成功 据报道，当地时间 9 月 15 日，美国参议院批准白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬 · 米兰出任 美联储理事。 投票结果方面，美国参议院以 48 票对 47 票的微弱优势，通过对米兰出任美联储理事会成员 的提名。 市场预计，特朗普政府将向美国最高法院提起上诉。如最高法院未裁决，库克将参加美联储 此次议息会议并投票。 这意味着，库克可以暂时继续担任美联储理事。 米兰预计将参 ...

对于今天黄金走势的看法！ 黄金从整体技术层来看，目前仍然维持在高位震荡之中，并且震荡呈现收窄的态势。黄金近期将面临方面的选择。从位置来看， 隔夜美盘金价反抽3658高点承压后震荡再度走低，该区域目前仍然成为重要的阻力区域。这也是空单投资者需要关注的主要阻力 位置！ 而当前行情依旧是没出现突破，那么我们还是以震荡走势为梳理，高估低渣。那么上方的主要压力节点就放在3658附近！因此， 金价如果直接测试周五高点3658，同时该区域形成明显的看跌形态后就直接参与空头，同时回撤3620-22支撑位置择机布局多 单！ 【文章结构：前面80%内容是"渔"，即分析内容；后面20%内容是"鱼"，即结论，时间紧的朋友可以直接翻到尾段看结论】 无论做多，还是做空，都有可能赚钱，唯有贪婪者例外，要投资，就要屏蔽兴奋，至少不要在错误的时间兴奋，一切的交易，情 绪起到关键性的作用，花全部的时间研究趋势，永远不要和趋势作对，学会跟随，才能学到精髓，金融市场没有常胜将军，一个 人无法赚到认知范围外的钱，投资本身就是对自我认知的考核。 本周风险数据预警！ 就本周来看，美国经济日程将在周二公布8月零售销售数据，但市场几乎不会在美联储政策宣布前过 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. retail sales data shows strong performance, indicating a robust consumer spending environment which may influence market trends and investment strategies [1] Group 1 - The article highlights the impressive retail sales figures in the U.S., suggesting a positive outlook for the economy [1] - There is a focus on how these retail sales figures could impact gold prices, as investors may look for safe-haven assets amid economic fluctuations [1] - The discussion includes strategies for positioning long positions in gold based on the current market conditions and retail sales performance [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of U.S. retail sales data on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the potential for a rebound in gold prices [1] Group 1: U.S. Retail Sales Data - Recent U.S. retail sales data is being closely monitored as it influences the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - The performance of retail sales could delay the Fed's interest rate cuts, affecting market expectations [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to delay interest rate cuts is linked to economic indicators such as retail sales [1] - A stable or improving retail sales environment may lead to a more cautious approach from the Fed regarding rate adjustments [1] Group 3: Gold Market Implications - The potential for gold bulls to rally is contingent on the Fed's interest rate trajectory influenced by retail sales [1] - If the Fed maintains higher rates for an extended period, it could suppress gold prices, while any dovish shift could trigger a rebound [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of U.S. retail sales data is weak, with slight adjustments in market pricing for Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Data - The market pricing for Federal Reserve rate cuts was initially set at 49 basis points before the release of May retail sales data, which changed slightly to 48.5 basis points post-release [1] - The overall retail sales report showed weakness, but the control group, which is considered the best indicator of consumer conditions, performed slightly better than expected, with upward revisions to previous values [1] - The data series is currently difficult to interpret due to a significant increase in sales in March driven by tariff concerns, followed by two consecutive months of decline [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices opened high but showed signs of weakness, raising questions about the sustainability of the rebound momentum [1] - The release of U.S. retail sales data is a key focus for market participants [1] Group 1 - Gold's initial high opening indicates potential bullish sentiment, but subsequent declines suggest a lack of strong buying support [1] - The market is currently assessing critical price levels to determine future movements in gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - A decline in U.S. retail sales greater than expected may increase bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Retail Sales Data - Market participants currently expect two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - A Wall Street Journal survey anticipates a 0.6% month-over-month decline in U.S. retail sales for May, compared to a previous increase of 0.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.4472% and the 2-year yield falling to 3.9629%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 8.91 basis points, closing at 4.4472% after a day of continuous decline [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 8.79 basis points, ending at 3.9629%, with a notable drop starting at 14:00 [1] - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread remained roughly stable at +48.227 basis points, with significant fluctuations following the release of PPI data [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of U.S. retail sales data at 20:30, there was a brief uptick in yields before they hit a new daily low [1] - The 10-year yield reached a daily low of 4.4374% at 01:13, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [1] - The yield spread peaked at +51.942 basis points at 20:54 after the PPI data was published, indicating increased market volatility [1]