证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 招商银行（600036.SH）2025 年一季报点评 优于大市 净利息收入实现正增长，核心竞争力深化 业绩小幅负增。2025 年一季度实现营收 837.5 亿元，同比下降 3.1%，归母 净利润 372.9 亿元，同比下降 2.1%。年化后 ROAA 和 ROAE 分别为 1.21%和 14.13%，同比分别下降 0.14 个和 1.95 个百分点。 净利息收入增速转正，其他非息收入下降拖累营收。一季度净利息收入同比 增长 1.9%，较 2024 年全年增速提升了 3.5 个百分点；手续费净收入同比下 降 2.5%，其他非息收入同比下降 22.2%，主要是金融投资公允价值下降。 净息差同比降幅收窄，规模扩张稳健。公司披露的净息差 1.91%，同比下降 11bps，环比下降 3bps。其中，生息资产收益率同比下降 44bps，贷款收益 率同比下降 54bps；负债端，活期存款日均余额占比达到 50.5%，存款成本 率同比下降 34bps，计息负债成本率同比下降 36bps。期末资产总额 12.53 万亿元，贷款总额 7.13 万亿元，存款总额 9.32 万亿元，较年初分 ...

股份行一季度成绩单整体难言优秀。 4家股份行营收净利双降 华夏银行降幅位居首位 在经济增速放缓、利差收窄等多重挑战下，上市股份行一季度业绩普遍"失色"。 统计发现，9家A股上市股份行中，有7家营收同比下滑，仅民生银行（600016）和浦发银行同比增加， 增幅分别为7.41%、1.31%。 营收下滑的股份行中，华夏银行和平安银行（000001）降幅最大，分别下降了17.73%、13.10%。华夏 银行未在一季报中解释营收大幅下滑的原因，平安银行则表示是"受市场变化、优化业务结构等因素影 响"。 归属于股东的净利润方面，9家A股上市股份行中，5家同比出现下滑。其中，华夏银行以14.04%的降幅 成为降幅最大的股份行，平安银行净利润降幅为5.60%，在9家A股上市股份行中第二高。 净利润同比增长的有4家，分别为中信银行、浦发银行、浙商银行（601916）和光大银行（601818）， 增幅分别为1.66%、1.02%、0.61%和0.31%。 综合来看，9家股份行中，有4家营收和净利润同时出现下降，分别为招商银行（600036）、兴业银行、 平安银行和华夏银行。其中华夏银行无论是营收还是净利润，降幅都达双位数，在9家 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 30 日 农业银行（601288.SH） 如何理解农行其他非息逆势高增？ 农业银行披露 2025 年一季度报，25Q1 营业收入、PPOP、归母利润同比增速 分别为+0.4%、-0.3%、+2.2%，营收利润均保持正增长。（更多图表见正文） 1、营收利润为何能正增长？上市中大型银行中，一季度营收利润双正增长的银 行不多，农行作为国有大行，营收利润增速延续正增长是难得的表现，核心得 益于其他非息逆势高增长继续对业绩形成正贡献。 2、其他非息逆势为何逆势高增长？一季度债市调整，银行业其他非息普遍承压， 不少银行明显负增长，对营收业绩形成拖累。但是农行其他非息增速不降反升， 25Q1 其他非息增速 45.3%，较 24 年全年增速进一步上行。债市调整情况下， 其他非息逆势高增说明农行可能在一季度利率低点时进行了兑现，一方面实现 了 OCI 浮盈进入投资收益，另一方面减少了债市调整导致的浮亏幅度。24 年末 农行 TPL 投资（以公允价值计量且其变动计入当期损益）余额 0.51 万亿元， OCI 投资（以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他综合收益）余额 3.43 万亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in liability volume and pricing, with a positive growth rate in fee income [2] - The net interest margin decline has narrowed, primarily due to improved liability costs [2] - The company is expected to leverage its wealth management and investment banking advantages in a more active capital market [3] Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.58%, 4.35%, and 2.22% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.80%, down 7 basis points year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [2] - The company experienced a recovery in fee income growth, which turned positive at 9.38% after a significant decline in the previous year [2] Non-Interest Income - The company reported a 21.5% year-on-year decline in other non-interest income for Q1 2025, impacted by market interest rate adjustments and high base effects [3] - Fee income growth rebounded significantly from a decline of 9.88% in the previous year to a growth of 9.38% in Q1 2025 [30] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 1.08% in Q1 2025, slightly up from the previous quarter [2] - The provision coverage ratio was 233.42%, down 4.36 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating stable asset quality [2] Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total operating revenue of 214.974 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [4] - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 80.092 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.7% [4] - The current stock price is 21.02 yuan, with a target valuation based on the company's financial performance [5]

[Table_Page] 季报点评|国有大型银行Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 工商银行(601398.SH/01398.HK) 存贷同比多增，中收降幅收窄 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Invest] 公司评级 | 买入-A/买入-H | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 7.27 元/5.48 港元 | | 合理价值 | 7.29 元/5.50 港元 | | 前次评级 | 买入/买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-04-30 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -12% 0% 13% 25% 38% 50% 04/24 06/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 02/25 04/25 工商银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | 021-38003646 | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 许洁 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518080004 | | SFC CE No. BNU965 | | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's asset quality continues to improve, with a TTM real non-performing loan generation rate of 1.24%, a decrease of 16 basis points from the previous quarter, maintaining the improvement trend since Q3 2024 [1][5] - Revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 decreased by 3.6% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to slowed growth in scale and increased non-interest burdens, although interest margin pressures improved [2][3] - The average daily interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.80%, down 7 basis points year-on-year, but rebounded by 2 basis points compared to Q4 2024, benefiting from a significant decrease in the interest rate paid on deposits [3] - The bank's financial investment balance reached 3.55 trillion, demonstrating resilience amid challenges in the bond market, with minimal losses reported [4] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio increased slightly to 1.08% at the end of Q1 2025, while the attention loan ratio remained stable at 1.71% [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 55,683 million, a decrease of 3.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 23,796 million, down 2.2% year-on-year [12] - The return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 was 9.0%, reflecting a decline from previous quarters [12] Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profit growth rates for 2025-2027 are -1.16%, 0.41%, and 2.25%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 39.20, 41.64, and 44.16 [6] - The target price is set at 25.82 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price [6] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of Q1 2025 was 1.08%, with a slight increase from the previous quarter, while the attention loan ratio remained stable at 1.71% [5] - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 233% [1][5]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 中信银行(601998) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 30 日 扩表提速，息差下行 ——中信银行 2025 年一季报点评 25Q1 中信银行息差（期初期末口径，下同）环比 24Q4 下降 10bp 至 1.61%，资 产端下行幅度大于负债端下行幅度。①25Q1 资产收益率环比下降 25bp 至 3.31%，判断一方面受市场利率下行影响，一方面受资产结构变化影响。25Q1 债 券投资增速（同比 9.4%）显著高于贷款增速（同比 5.1%）。目前配置盘票息收 入有限，债券增配可能对息差产生负面影响。②25Q1 负债成本率环比下降 15bp 至 1.74%，判断主要得益于存款利率调整。展望未来，中信银行息差仍面临收窄 压力，主要考虑市场利率下行和债券票息利差收窄。 ❑ 资产质量波动 25Q1 末中信银行不良率环比持平于 1.16%，关注率较 24Q4 末上升 5bp 至 1.68%，风险指标小幅承压。动态指标来看，25Q1 中信银行真实不良 TTM 生成 率 1.28%，环比上升 2bp。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 投资要点 ❑ 中信银行 2025Q1 资产扩表提速，息 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 中信银行(601998) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 30 日 中信银行 2025Q1 营收同比下降 3.7%，增速由正转负；归母净利润同比增长 1.7%，增速较 24A 放缓 0.7pc。2025Q1 末不良率环比持平于 1.16%；2025Q1 末 拨备覆盖率 207%，较 24A 末下降 2.3pc。 ❑ 营收增速下降 中信银行 2025Q1 营收同比下降 3.7%，增速较 24A 放缓 7.5pc；归母净利润同比 增长 1.7%，增速较 24A 放缓 0.7pc。驱动因素来看，规模扩张和拨备反哺为主要 支撑项，息差下行和交易收入波动为主要拖累项。①规模，25Q1 末总资产同比 增长 8.7%，增速较 24A 末提升 3.4pc。25Q1 末贷款同比增长 5.1%，增速较 24A 末提升 1.1pc；债券投资同比增长 9.4%，，增速较 24A 末提升 8.3pc。其中， OCI、TPL、AC 账户规模分别环比增长 12.5%、1.0%、0.4%。一季度债券市场 回撤后，中信银行显著增配 OCI 账户债券。②息差，25Q1 中信银行息差（期初 期末口径 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's asset quality continues to improve, with a TTM real non-performing loan generation rate of 1.24%, a decrease of 16 basis points from the previous quarter, maintaining the improvement trend since Q3 2024 [1][5] - Revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 decreased by 3.6% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a shift from growth to decline compared to 2024 [2][6] - The average net interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.80%, down 7 basis points year-on-year, but showed a rebound of 2 basis points compared to Q4 2024, primarily due to a significant decrease in the interest rate paid on deposits [3] - The bank's financial investment balance reached 3.55 trillion, demonstrating resilience amid challenges in the bond market [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q1 2025 revenue was 55,683 million, down 3.6% year-on-year, while net profit was 23,796 million, down 2.2% year-on-year [12] - The non-performing loan ratio increased by 1 basis point to 1.08% at the end of Q1 2025, while the attention loan ratio remained stable at 1.71% [1][5] Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profit growth rates for 2025-2027 are -1.16%, 0.41%, and 2.25%, respectively, with corresponding BPS of 39.20, 41.64, and 44.16 [6] - The target price is set at 25.82 yuan per share, corresponding to a 2025 PB of 0.66, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price [6] Asset Quality - The bank's asset quality is on an improving path, with a focus on real estate and credit card risk generation, while retail remains under slight pressure [5] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 4 percentage points to 233% at the end of Q1 2025 [1][5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for Q1 2025 was $13.1 million, with a return on average assets of 1.3% and return on average equity of 13.28% [11] - Total loans held for investment increased by $89.1 million or 2.52% from the prior quarter, with average loan yields rising by one basis point to 6.02% [4][11] - Net interest margin improved by nine basis points to 3.45% from 3.36% in the previous quarter, primarily due to lower average cost of deposits [11] - Non-interest income decreased to $1.4 million from $1.7 million in the previous quarter, mainly due to reduced income from equity investments [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The commercial real estate segment of the loan portfolio increased from 80.75% to 81.11% quarter over quarter, indicating a strong focus on this area [5] - Loan originations for the first quarter were $259.3 million, while payoffs and pay downs were $65.6 million and $104.6 million respectively [5] - Non-performing loans remained stable at 0.05% of loans held for investment [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deposits increased by $178.4 million or 5% compared to the previous quarter, driven by increases in non-interest bearing demand and various types of interest-bearing deposits [6][9] - Non-interest bearing deposits as a percentage of total deposits decreased slightly to 24.99% from 25.93% in the prior quarter [8] - Wholesale deposits increased by $130 million or 23.21% quarter over quarter, while non-wholesale deposits rose by $48.4 million or 1.61% [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on organic growth and disciplined business practices, aiming to benefit customers, employees, community, and shareholders [14] - Expansion into the San Francisco Bay Area is a key strategic initiative, supported by the addition of seasoned professionals [4][14] - The company aims to maintain a fortress balance sheet with a target of 10% in cash and a loan-to-deposit ratio of less than 100% [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's resilience and ability to adapt to changing economic conditions, projecting loan growth of 10% to 12% for the remainder of the year [20][21] - Concerns regarding tariffs and economic slowdown were acknowledged, but management believes the bank is well-positioned due to the composition of its loan portfolio [30] - The company remains optimistic about the demand for loans, particularly in the mobile home park and RV park sectors, which have historically performed well [30] Other Important Information - The company declared a cash dividend of $0.20 per share, expected to be paid on May 12, 2025 [10] - Five Star Bancorp was ranked third on the S&P Global Market Intelligence List of best-performing community banks in the nation for banks with assets between $3 billion and $10 billion [64] Q&A Session Summary Question: Loan growth outlook for the year - Management is bullish on loan growth, projecting 10% to 12% for the rest of the year, supported by a strong sales force [20][21] Question: Reason for higher cost wholesale funding - Management indicated that core deposit growth is expected to match loan growth, and they do not anticipate additional wholesale funding [22][23] Question: Impact of tariffs on RV manufactured housing business - Management feels comfortable with their portfolio's performance in the face of tariffs, citing historical resilience during economic downturns [30] Question: Changes in allowance for loan losses - The increase in allowance was driven by portfolio growth and revised economic forecasts from the FOMC [36][37] Question: Loan pricing competition - Management acknowledged competitive pricing but remains satisfied with their current loan spreads [40][41] Question: Small business borrowers' response to economic uncertainty - Management noted that small business borrowers face high costs of borrowing, but they maintain a high level of reserves against this book [55][57]