Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Bostic believes that the Fed currently does not need to lower interest rates and should maintain a patient approach regarding interest rate issues [1] Group 1 - Bostic expects the impact of certain tariff policies to persist until the first half of 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller opposed the decision to maintain interest rates, advocating for a 25 basis point cut to avoid excessive economic pressure [1] - Waller expressed concerns about the labor market's resilience, noting a rising unemployment rate and slowing job growth since mid-last year [1] - He highlighted potential revisions to employment data that may indicate almost no growth in non-farm jobs for the previous year [1] Group 2 - Waller believes current inflation levels are close to the Fed's 2% target when excluding the impact of tariffs, suggesting room for further rate cuts [2] - In contrast, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized that inflation remains high and that the Fed should maintain a restrictive policy [2] - Bostic noted that the risks in the job market have eased compared to a month ago, which supports a wait-and-see approach for policymakers [2] Group 3 - This FOMC meeting marked Bostic's last as a policymaker before his retirement at the end of February, amid emerging policy disagreements within the Fed [3] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 may experience increased volatility due to the upcoming announcement of a new Fed chair [3]

Core Viewpoint - The selection of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump indicates a potential shift towards a more consensus-driven approach within the Fed, with gradual interest rate cuts expected to begin in mid-2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The strong performance of the U.S. economy suggests that Trump's idea of the U.S. having the lowest global interest rates is unlikely to be adopted [1] - Economists believe that monetary policy may become more expansionary than what the economic conditions can support [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Warsh's advocacy for reforming the Federal Reserve may lead to a diminished defense of the Fed's independence compared to his predecessors [1] - This potential shift in stance could increase inflation risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant inflow of funds into Hong Kong's technology sector through cross-border ETFs, indicating a growing interest in technology-themed investments as the market rebounds in early 2026 [1][3]. Fund Inflows and Performance - Since the beginning of 2026, over 160 Hong Kong ETFs have seen a net inflow of 28.389 billion yuan, with approximately 90% of this capital directed towards technology-themed products such as the Hong Kong Internet ETF and the Hang Seng Technology ETF [1][3][4]. - The total scale of Hong Kong ETFs has approached 800 billion yuan, marking an increase of nearly 79 billion yuan since the end of 2025, representing an 11% growth [6]. Product Development - At least 28 new Hong Kong-themed funds have been reported by public fund managers since the start of 2026, focusing primarily on technology, healthcare, and consumer sectors, with technology funds being the most prominent [1][8][9]. - The top 10 funds attracting significant capital include several technology ETFs, with inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan for products like the GF Hong Kong Non-Bank ETF and the FT Hong Kong Internet ETF [4][5]. Fund Performance - Most Hong Kong ETFs have recorded positive returns since the beginning of 2026, with several funds in the healthcare and non-bank sectors achieving returns over 10% [5][6]. - The performance of technology-themed ETFs has been particularly strong, with the Hong Kong Internet ETF and the Hang Seng Technology ETF yielding returns of approximately 8.9% and 8%, respectively [5]. Long-term Investment Outlook - The article emphasizes the long-term growth potential of the technology sector in Hong Kong, driven by global capital and talent influx, as well as favorable trends in artificial intelligence and innovation [10][11]. - The article also notes the potential for investment in upstream resources and companies expanding internationally, indicating a broader strategy for capital allocation in the Hong Kong market [10].

此前，特朗普曾表示，美联储下一任主席将"干得不错"，而美联储目前利率"高得不可接受"。特朗普29日早些时候还在社交媒体上批评美联储主席鲍威 尔"再次拒绝降息"，并声称美国利率应该在世界上处于最低水平。 根据美国法定程序，美联储主席由美国总统提名人选，经国会参议院批准后任职。鲍威尔在特朗普首个总统任期内被提名为美联储主席，于2018年2月上 任，后在拜登政府时期获得提名连任，其任期将于今年5月15日结束。特朗普2025年初重返白宫以来，多次因美联储货币政策公开批评鲍威尔，并威胁解 除鲍威尔职务。 每经编辑｜段炼 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需获得参议院批准。 沃什2006年加入美联储，是当时最年轻的美联储理事。在美联储任职期间，沃什持鹰派货币政策立场，但近年转向支持特朗普的关税政策及加快降息立 场。 值得一提的是，特朗普在首个总统任期内提名鲍威尔为美联储主席。当时，鲍威尔与沃什均为特朗普考虑的人选，但鲍威尔最终获得提名。 美国司法部本月9日向美联储送达传票，威胁就鲍威尔2025年6月在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事诉讼。调查聚焦于美联储办公楼翻新项 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic stated that two rate cuts are not the baseline scenario, and inflation is expected to remain sticky [1] Group 1 - Bostic's comments indicate a cautious approach towards monetary policy, suggesting that the Fed may not be inclined to lower interest rates in the near term [1] - The expectation of persistent inflation implies that the economic environment may remain challenging for consumers and businesses alike [1]

30日，美国总统特朗普提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。该消息发布后，市场迅速聚焦 其货币政策取向及美联储独立性问题。 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院教授胡捷在接受中新经纬采访时表示，若仅从其客观政策观点出发，而 不引入政治因素推断，沃什在未来一年内大概率支持降息，且相较其他更强硬的鹰派，其认可的降息幅 度可能相对较大。 "从他的政策见解来看，他对当前经济环境的判断，更倾向于通过宽松货币政策来平衡通胀与就业。"胡 捷指出，在未来一年的利率路径上，沃什主张降息的态度较为清晰。 从具体运行机制来看，美联储主席只是联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）19名委员之一，而该委员会中拥 有投票权的委员为12人。只有一票投票权的主席，虽在沟通和协调中具备一定影响力，但并不意味着其 个人偏好可以直接决定货币政策方向。 胡捷指出，FOMC的决策仍将围绕通胀率与失业率两大核心目标展开，政策制定最终需要回归经济数据 和既定目标框架，而非个人立场。在具体政策空间上，他认为，结合当前通胀与就业数据，市场对未来 一年降息幅度的预期大致集中在50个基点至100个基点之间。"相对谨慎的观点认为可能在50个基点左 右，但综合判断，我认为降息 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.35%, S&P futures down 0.34%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.44% [1] - Major European stock indices are all up, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 1.04%, FTSE 100 up 0.5%, CAC 40 up 0.8%, and DAX 30 up 0.96% [1] - WTI crude oil is down 0.64% at $65.0 per barrel, and Brent crude oil is down 0.69% at $69.11 per barrel [1] - Gold on the NYSE is down 3.69% at $5157.2 per ounce [1] Market News - Trump has officially nominated Waller to head the Federal Reserve, with CME data showing a 48.3% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index is near an intraday low at 17.80 points [1] - The head of Indonesia's financial regulatory agency has resigned, taking responsibility for the stock market sell-off [1] - India's foreign exchange reserves have reached a record $709.41 billion as of January 23 [1] - Israel will reopen the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt on Sunday [1] - Iran's foreign minister stated that Iran's missile issues will never be a negotiation topic, and the country is prepared for both war and diplomatic scenarios [1] Company News - Chevron anticipates that the impact of first-quarter shutdowns will equate to a loss of 185,000 to 225,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day [1] - Bernstein has raised IBM's target stock price from $280 to $330 [1] - POSCO has suspended battery material negotiations with Ford due to market fluctuations [1] - LG Electronics reported fourth-quarter revenue of 23.852 trillion KRW, exceeding market expectations of 22.762 trillion KRW; however, it recorded an operating loss of 1.09 trillion KRW compared to a profit of 1.354 trillion KRW in the same period last year [1] Economic Data and Forecasts - Chile's copper production in December decreased by 4.7% year-on-year [1] - Eurozone's Q4 GDP preliminary year-on-year growth is 1.3% (expected 1.2%), and quarter-on-quarter growth is 0.3% (expected 0.2%); December unemployment rate is 6.2% (expected 6.3%) [1] - Germany's Q4 seasonally adjusted GDP preliminary quarter-on-quarter growth is 0.3%, and January seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 6.3% [1] - Italy's December unemployment rate is 5.6% [1] - Spain's economic growth rate for 2025 is projected at 2.8% [1] - Portugal's economic growth for 2025 is projected at 1.9%, with Q4 year-on-year growth of 1.9% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.8% [1] - France's GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected at 0.9% [1]

1. 1月30日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指 期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.35%，标普期货跌 0.34%，纳指期货跌0.44%。 2. 截至发稿，欧洲股市主要指数齐涨。欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.04%，英国富 时100指数涨0.5%，法国CAC40指数涨0.8%，德国DAX30指数涨0.96%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油跌 0.64%，报65.0美元/桶。布伦特原油跌0.69%，报69.11美元/桶。纽交所 黄金跌3.69%，报5157.2美元/盎 司。 市场消息 1、特朗普正式提名沃什执掌美联储，CME数据显示美联储到6月累计降息25个基点概率 达48.3%，货币市场押注美联储今年将累计降息超过两次且每次25个基点。 2、芝加哥期权交易所波动 率指数接近盘中低点，报17.80点。 3、印尼金融监管机构负责人辞职，为印尼股市抛售承担责任。 4、 印度外汇储备增至创纪录的7094.1亿美元（截至1月23日）。 5、以色列将于周日重新开放加沙与埃及之 间的拉法口岸。 6、伊朗外交部长表示伊朗的 导弹问题绝不会成为谈判议题，已为战争或外交两种情况 做好准备，希望就有尊严的谈判达成框架协议，目前没有计划与美国 ...

货币市场押注美联储今年将至少两次降息25个基点。 来源：滚动播报 ...