格隆汇10月20日｜中信证券发布报告指，2025年10月20-23日将召开二十届四中全会，近期共有三份文 件需要关注： 1)2025年10月23日或将发布二十届四中全会公告，预计其篇幅较短，约在6000字左右， 其内容为《"十五五"规划建议》精简版。 2)2025年10月28日左右或将发布《"十五五"规划建议》，这可 能是三份文件中对投资者而言最重要的一个，预计全文约2万字左右，将涵盖党中央对"十五五"时期国 民经济发展和改革的目标建议，也是明年"十五五"规划正式稿的基础。 3)2025年10月28日左右或将同时 发布关于《"十五五"规划建议》的说明，预计约6000字左右，其中将包括《"十五五"规划建议》出台背 后的考虑和原则，并对部分规划建议进行解释。 体制改革方面，建议重点关注四中全会在加快建设现 代化产业体系、推进全国统一大市场建设、以及扩大内需方面的部署。发展目标方面，关注四中全会是 否会制定GDP增长目标，同时绿色发展方面或有进一步加码。 ...

Economic Overview - In the first three quarters, China's GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - The contribution rates to economic growth from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 4.7%, 34.6%, and 60.7% respectively [2] Industry Performance - Agricultural production showed stability with a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, contributing 0.3 percentage points to economic growth [3] - Industrial production increased by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to economic growth, with manufacturing growing by 6.5% [3] - The service sector also performed well, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services, which grew by 11.2% [3] Domestic Demand and Trade - Final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5% to economic growth, adding 2.8 percentage points to GDP [5] - Investment in key areas showed rapid growth, with capital formation contributing 17.5% to economic growth [5] - Net exports maintained stable growth, contributing 29.0% to economic growth [5] Market Dynamics - The digital economy showed significant support, with revenue from information transmission and IT services growing by 12.1% [6] - The manufacturing sector is accelerating its transformation, with high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.6% [7] - Modern service industries are also improving, with high-tech service sector revenue growing by 9.4% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The 10th Huashang Cultural Festival will be held on October 29 in Shangqiu, aiming to create a platform for global Chinese merchants to connect with the national unified market, emphasizing the historical roots of commercial civilization in the region [1][2]. Group 1: Festival Overview - The festival has evolved from a local cultural event to a globally recognized cultural celebration since its inception in 2006 [1]. - The theme "Gathering at the Source of Yin Shang, Integrating into the Big Market" reflects both a historical tribute to commercial roots and a contemporary focus on market integration [1][2]. Group 2: Strategic Importance of Shangqiu - Shangqiu is positioned as a key node in the "Belt and Road" initiative and a core area for high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, benefiting from multiple strategic opportunities [2][3]. - The city aims to leverage its unique geographical advantages and industrial foundation to contribute to the construction of a national unified market [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Support Activities - A financial support event will take place on October 28, focusing on "Financial Empowerment and Industry-Finance Coordination" to connect financial institutions with local industries [6][9]. - The event aims to facilitate diverse financial services and promote high-quality regional economic development by linking financial capital with local特色产业 [6][9]. Group 4: Industry Development Strategies - Shangqiu is focusing on building a logistics network, enhancing agricultural supply stability, and nurturing competitive niche industries to support its economic growth [7][8]. - The city is also promoting cultural and tourism integration to stimulate domestic demand and create new economic scenarios [8]. Group 5: Event Activities - The festival will feature a series of activities, including cultural performances, academic exchanges, and business events, aimed at showcasing Shangqiu's unique charm and fostering industry collaboration [10][11]. - Specific exhibitions, such as the Refrigeration Equipment Expo and Shoe Industry Expo, will highlight local industry strengths and facilitate project signings [10].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported that the general public budget revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 16.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [2][3] - Tax revenue, which constitutes the main source of fiscal income, amounted to 13.27 trillion yuan, growing by 0.7%, while non-tax revenue decreased by 0.4% [2][4] - The fiscal revenue growth reflects a stable and improving economic environment, with the third quarter showing a significant increase of 2.5% in revenue [2][3] Revenue Breakdown - Central government budget revenue was 7.1 trillion yuan, down 1.2%, while local government budget revenue was 9.3 trillion yuan, up 1.8% [3] - The increase in third-quarter revenue indicates a recovery trend, with monthly growth observed [3] - Tax revenue from the domestic value-added tax, the largest tax category, grew by 3.6%, indicating improved performance in the industrial and service sectors [4] Expenditure Insights - Total general public budget expenditure for the first three quarters was 20.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [3] - Central government expenditure was 3.1 trillion yuan, up 7.3%, while local government expenditure was 17.7 trillion yuan, up 2.4% [3] - Key areas of expenditure such as social security and employment saw a growth of 10%, education increased by 5.4%, and health spending rose by 4.7%, marking the highest growth rates in three years for these categories [3] Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue was 3.07 trillion yuan, down 0.5%, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of the year [5] - Fund budget expenditure reached 7.49 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 23.9%, driven by accelerated use of bond funds [5] Local Government Debt Management - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt limit to support local fiscal capacity, an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to 2024 [6] - This allocation aims to assist local governments in managing existing debts and supporting project construction in economically significant provinces [6][7] - The early issuance of new local government debt limits is intended to ensure the progress of key projects and stabilize the government bond market [7]

Economic Outlook - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the dual challenges facing the Chinese economy, including insufficient demand and structural transformation, with a focus on the real estate market and foreign trade as key variables [1][3][12] - 71% of economists predict that the GDP growth rate for Q3 will be between 4.7% and 4.9%, while 75% expect the full-year GDP growth for 2025 to be between 4.8% and 5.1% [1][3] Real Estate Market - 90% of economists believe that the real estate market is currently in a phase of slowing decline and has not yet reached the bottom [1][7] - The real estate market is seen as a critical support for economic growth, with recent policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the market [7][8] - The market is experiencing a divergence in recovery, with core cities responding more positively to policy changes compared to second and third-tier cities [8] Employment and External Factors - Employment pressure is identified as a significant concern, with 33% of economists highlighting it as a key issue, alongside external influences such as financial and foreign trade factors [1][12] - Trade friction is viewed as the largest external disturbance affecting the economy, with 73% of economists identifying it as a major concern [1][12] Inflation and Price Trends - The article discusses the potential for PPI (Producer Price Index) to rise significantly in the second half of 2025, driven by anti-"involution" policies [4] - CPI (Consumer Price Index) is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, but will remain at historically low levels due to insufficient domestic demand [4][10] Policy Measures - The article outlines the need for continued policy support to address the challenges in the real estate sector and employment, emphasizing the importance of a coordinated approach between fiscal and monetary policies [12][16] - Suggestions for enhancing the real estate market include optimizing credit and tax policies, promoting urban renewal, and ensuring financial stability for real estate companies [8][12]

Domestic News - The Chinese government emphasizes the need to expand domestic demand and strengthen the domestic circulation to stimulate market vitality and increase quality supply [1][2] - The Ministry of Commerce responds to U.S. trade measures, stating that imposing high tariffs is not the correct approach for bilateral relations and urges the U.S. to correct its actions [1][2] - In the first nine months, China's new energy vehicle production and sales both exceeded 10 million units, with a year-on-year increase of over 30% [1][2] - The National Development and Reform Commission predicts that China's GDP will reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, marking a significant milestone [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, while the core CPI rose by 1.0%, indicating a continuous expansion in inflationary pressure [1][2] Financial Sector - The Ministry of Finance plans to advance the issuance of the 2026 local government debt limit to support major strategic projects and stabilize local finances [2] - The People's Bank of China reports that the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan at the end of September, growing by 8.4% year-on-year [2] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down by about 40 basis points year-on-year [2] Automotive Industry - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 11.24 million and 11.22 million units respectively in the first nine months, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.2% and 34.9% [2][3] Regulatory Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation has initiated an investigation into Qualcomm for alleged anti-competitive practices related to its acquisition of Autotalks [3] - The Ministry of Commerce clarifies that the recent export control measures on rare earths are part of China's efforts to enhance its export control system and are not targeted at specific countries [2][3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the Fourth Plenary Session's policy guidance, suggesting that market fluctuations in the short term do not alter the mid-term upward trend [2] - It highlights the structural differentiation in domestic economic data, with better-than-expected export growth of 8.3% in September, while credit growth is slowing [2][3] - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors, industries benefiting from policy support, and consumer sectors with low valuations [2] Recent Developments - **Trade Data**: September exports increased by 8.3%, with significant growth in exports to Africa, Latin America, and the EU, particularly in integrated circuits and ships [3] - **Financial Data**: New social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, indicating a slowdown in credit growth [4] - **Price Data**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% [5] Policy Tracking - Recent policy adjustments include the expansion of the Hainan duty-free shopping policy, allowing new categories of goods and adjusting the age limit for duty-free shopping [6] - The government is focusing on enhancing domestic demand and stabilizing foreign trade and investment through various measures [6] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the banking and coal sectors leading gains, while the overall market saw a decline in major indices [12][13] - The report notes that the market's short-term volatility is influenced by external uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. government shutdowns and U.S.-China relations [2][12]

110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元……"十四五"期间，我国坚持稳中求进工作总基调，经济总量连续跨越新关口。2025年，中国经济总量预计约140万亿 元。习近平总书记曾多次指出，中国经济具有"基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大"的特点，强调要坚持以推动高质量发展为主题，推动经济实现质的有效 提升和量的合理增长，为我们持续做好经济工作指明方向。 今年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局之年。我们要继续锚定奋斗目标，坚定信心、砥砺前行，努力把各方面积极因素转化为发展实 绩，书写经济高质量发展新篇章。 2022年10月16日,习近平在中国共产党第二十次全国 代表大会上的报告 2021-2024年,内需对我国经济增长平均贡献率 达86.8%;其中,最终消费支出平均贡献率为 59.9%，比"十三五"时期提高11.1个百分点。投 资对优化供给结构的关键性作用持续发挥, 2021 -2024年高技术产业投资年均增长13.5%,明显 快于整体投资增速。 要完善国家创新体系,激发各类创新主体 活力,瞄准世界科技前沿,在加强基础研 究、提高原始创新能力上持续用力,在突破 关键核心技术、前沿技术上抓紧攻关。 -20 ...

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's GDP has successively crossed the thresholds of 110 trillion yuan, 120 trillion yuan, and 130 trillion yuan, with an expected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025 [1][3] - The focus is on promoting high-quality development, emphasizing effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy [1][6] Economic Growth - By 2024, China's GDP is projected to exceed 134 trillion yuan, representing a 23.9% increase from 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [3] - The economic increment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan [3] Domestic Demand and Investment - From 2021 to 2024, domestic demand is projected to contribute an average of 86.8% to economic growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing 59.9%, an increase of 11.1 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [7] - High-tech industry investment is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 13.5% from 2021 to 2024, significantly outpacing overall investment growth [7] Innovation and R&D - By 2024, total R&D expenditure is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan, maintaining China's position as the second-largest in the world [11] - By 2025, China aims to rank 10th in the global innovation index, improving by four positions since 2020, and leading in the number of top 100 innovation clusters globally [11] Market Development - The construction of a unified national market is essential for building a new development pattern and enhancing international competitiveness [14] - By 2024, the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP is expected to decrease to 14.1%, with market-based electricity transactions accounting for 63% of total electricity consumption [16] International Trade - China has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions, with the proportion of trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries rising from 29.1% in 2020 to 50.3% in 2024 [20] - The China-Europe Railway Express has reached 26 countries and over 200 cities in Europe, with a cumulative operation exceeding 110,000 trains [20] Manufacturing Sector - From 2021 to 2024, the actual growth rate of manufacturing value-added is expected to average 5.4%, maintaining a global share close to 30% and ranking first in the world for 15 consecutive years [26] - The proportion of equipment manufacturing in total industrial value-added is projected to increase from 33.7% in 2020 to 34.6% in 2024 [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recovery and growth of China's fiscal revenue in the first three quarters of the year, with a notable increase in tax revenue and strong support for key spending areas [1][2] Group 2 - In the first three quarters, the total general public budget revenue reached 16.39 trillion yuan, with tax revenue increasing by 0.7% year-on-year [1] - The value-added tax, reflecting the performance of the industrial and service sectors, grew by 3.6%, surpassing the general public budget revenue growth by 3.1 percentage points [1] - Corporate income tax increased by 0.8%, with the growth rate expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, indicating enhanced market vitality [1] - Tax revenue from the computer and communication equipment manufacturing industry rose by 12%, while the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector saw an 8.3% increase [1] - The cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors experienced a tax revenue growth of 5.5%, driven by consumption-boosting policies [1] - The scientific research and technical service industry reported a tax revenue increase of 13.4%, reflecting the positive momentum of the digital economy [1] Group 3 - National general public budget expenditure grew by 3.1% year-on-year, with the highest growth rates in social security, education, and health sectors over the past three years [2]