Group 1: Macro Overview - The US non-farm employment population increased by 50,000 in December 2025, below the expected 60,000 and the previous value of 64,000 [18] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, compared to the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.6% [18] - The Federal Reserve report indicates that consumers expect prices to rise by 3.4% over the next year, up from 3.2% in November [18] Group 2: Copper Market Fundamentals - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply sentiment, supported by the ongoing strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile [19] - January electrolytic copper production is estimated at 1.1636 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% but a year-on-year increase of 14.7% due to tight copper concentrate supply [19] - In November, net imports of refined copper decreased by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month to 208,100 tons [19] Group 3: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - As of January 9, global visible copper inventory increased by 48,000 tons to 961,000 tons, with LME inventory decreasing by 8,450 tons to 138,975 tons [19] - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 34,900 tons week-on-week to 273,800 tons, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [19] - The copper price has risen again, but downstream enterprises are purchasing cautiously, focusing on essential needs [19] Group 4: Policy Impact on Market - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, and a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% [20] - The market anticipates a rush to export in the first quarter, which may temporarily boost demand for certain commodities, making it difficult for prices to sustain a downward trend [20] - Overall, the market is expected to remain in a volatile upward trend before the Spring Festival, with a focus on feedback regarding the new policy [20]

Macro - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products on January 9, aimed at reducing trade friction and supporting industrial upgrades, which may bolster export growth for related products in Q1 2026 [1][6] - The PPI in December 2025 slightly exceeded market expectations, while the CPI has shown a continuous recovery for four months, reaching +0.8% year-on-year, with core CPI remaining at a high of +1.2%, aligning with market expectations [1][9] Battery Industry - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for battery products is seen as a measure to prevent "involution" and enhance the profitability of export products, with a structured decline in tax rates and a transition period [2][11] - The tax rebate for battery products will decrease from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and will be eliminated entirely from January 1, 2027, affecting lithium-ion batteries and nickel-hydrogen batteries [11][12] - The estimated impact on export tax rebates is approximately $22 million for 2026 and $66 million for 2027, with the potential for a "rush to export" scenario due to the structured decline in tax rates [12][13] - The policy is expected to favor Chinese battery companies with overseas production capacity, enhancing their global competitiveness and market share [2][12][13] Trade Policy - Mexico's recent tariff adjustments are primarily aimed at countries like China and South Korea, affecting about 45% of China's exports to Mexico, which could impact overall Chinese exports by approximately 1% [3][4] - The tariff adjustments are interpreted as a gesture towards the U.S., indicating potential follow-up actions from other developed economies, particularly Canada, in response to U.S. trade policy [4][5]

中信证券研报指出，墨西哥宣布从2026年1月1日开始，对没有和墨西哥签署自由贸易协定的国家加征关 税。我们认为此次墨西哥加征关税主要受影响国家为中国和韩国为代表的亚洲经济体。我们测算墨西哥 加征关税覆盖的商品约占中国对墨西哥出口的45%左右，大约影响中国整体出口约1%的商品。墨西哥 此次关税调整可以看作是向美国纳"投名状"，提示关注其他发达经济体尤其是加拿大受美国影响跟进调 整对华关税的可能性。从行业层面看，综合考虑对墨西哥出口敞口和加征关税税率，我们预计我国汽车 产业链、贱金属制品、机械设备出口可能相对受影响较大。财政部、国家税务总局1月9日发布公告调整 光伏、电池产品出口退税政策，我们认为这是出于减少贸易摩擦以及产业升级需要，或对2026年一季度 相关商品出口增速构成一定支撑，预计化学品、塑料制品、服装、机械和电气产品等在未来可能会有跟 进调整出口退税的措施。宏观经济运行方面，2025年12月PPI表现略超市场预期，CPI同比连续4个月回 升至+0.8%，核心CPI同比维持在+1.2%的高位，基本符合市场预期。本周市场关注12月中国物价数据， 下周建议关注中国12月金融数据和进出口数据。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced an adjustment to the export tax rebate policy for PVC products, which will eliminate the VAT export rebate for PVC powder starting April 1, 2026, significantly impacting the PVC market and raising export costs [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - The current export tax rebate rate for PVC powder is 13%, and its removal is expected to increase export costs by approximately $75 per ton based on current domestic prices of 4500 RMB per ton [1] - The adjustment is anticipated to have a profound effect on the PVC market, drawing significant attention from both the industry and capital markets [1] Group 2: Export Dynamics - China's PVC powder exports have become a crucial support for domestic demand, with total exports projected to reach 2.617 million tons in 2024 and exceed 3.8 million tons in 2025, driven by increasing global demand and a surplus in domestic supply [1] - There is an emerging trend of overseas clients actively seeking imports from China, anticipating a rise in costs post-April, which may lead to increased transaction activity in the export market [1] Group 3: Domestic Concerns - Domestic industry analysts express concerns regarding high inventory levels, with PVC social inventory reaching 1.0611 million tons by December 25, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.92%, indicating historical highs [2] - The upcoming nine-day Spring Festival holiday is expected to exacerbate inventory accumulation, with downstream demand recovery likely experiencing delays [2] Group 4: Long-term Industry Trends - The cancellation of the export tax rebate is expected to drive deep adjustments in the PVC industry, leading to four major trends: accelerated capacity elimination, structural upgrades, reshaped export patterns, and domestic demand becoming the primary price driver [3] - The industry is likely to see a shift towards higher-value PVC products, driven by cost pressures, and an increase in overseas production capacity as companies adapt to changing market conditions [3] Group 5: Market Outlook - Short-term demand for imports is expected to gradually release, with concentrated purchasing likely before early April; however, a new price structure may emerge as the market adjusts to higher costs, potentially supporting overall price recovery in the long run [4]

然而，出口退税政策本身也是一把双刃剑。在出口退税新政持续执行的过程中，越来越多的企业，特别是相关行业的中小企业，对出口退税政策的依赖度越 来越高。在高速发展之后，行业开始出现产能过剩的问题，不少企业依赖出口退税补贴来维持生存的状态，但行业内部产能过剩、供需结构不平衡等问题， 却没有发生实质性的变化。 在国际市场上，包括光伏等行业，近年来国际贸易摩擦等问题越来越明显。长期下去，不仅加重了财政负担压力，而且还不利于国际市场的影响地位，这个 时候出台出口退税新政，也基本上符合市场的预期。 光伏、电池出口退税新政出台，市场对此议论纷纷。从今年4月1日开始，包括光伏、电池等产品的增值税出口退税将会有重要调整。 具体来说，从今年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。另外，针对电池产品的增值税出口退税，将会分为两部分调整，第一步是从今年4月1日至12 月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%。第二步是从2027年1月1日开始，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。值得注意的是，这一次出口退税 的调整，主要体现在增值税出口退税，出口消费税仍不进行调整。 光伏与电池产品的出口退税税率下降，并非首次实施。在2024年11 ...

1月9日，财政部网站发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》，指出自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口 退税。 根据公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税(具体产品查看公告附件，下同)。自2026年4月1日起至2026年12 月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。 此外，公告指出对上述产品中征收消费税的产品，出口消费税政策不作调整，继续适用消费税退(免)税政策。 取消出口退税，意味着"补贴出海"的时代彻底终结。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，此前，财政部、国家税务总局已于2024年11月发布政策，明确自2024年12月1日起，将光伏硅片、 电池及组件的出口退税率由13%下调至9%。 SFC 协会进一步指出："适时降低或取消光伏产品的出口退税，有助于推动国外市场价格理性回归，降低了我国面临的贸易摩擦的风 险，同时能够有效缓解国家财政负担，促进财政资源更合理、更高效的配置。" 有业内人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者："光伏出口退税，一度成为部分企业低价出口光伏产品的依靠，即为争夺订单，不惜报出 过低价格，使得'内卷外 ...

根据公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税（具体产品查看公告附件，下 同）。自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至 6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。 此外，公告指出对上述产品中征收消费税的产品，出口消费税政策不作调整，继续适用消费税 退（免）税政策。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，此前，财政部、国家税务总局已于2024年11月发布政策，明确 自2024年12月1日起，将光伏硅片、电池及组件的出口退税率由13%下调至9%。 记者丨 曹恩惠 编辑丨张伟贤 1月9日，财政部网站发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》，指出自 2026年4月1 日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税 。 针对光伏产品增值税出口退税政策调整，中国光伏行业协会1月9日发文称："自2024年以来， 我国光伏产品在海外市场面临日益激烈的恶性竞争，出口价格持续走低，呈现'量增价减'态 势。部分企业在出口过程中，不仅低价竞争还将出口退税额折算为对外议价空间，导致原本用 于对冲国内增值税负担的财政资金在议价环节被让渡给境外采购方。这使得出口退税政策在实 质 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced changes to the export tax refund policies for photovoltaic and battery products, which will impact the industry starting from April 1, 2026 [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Export Tax Refund Changes**: From April 1, 2026, the export tax refund for photovoltaic products will be canceled. For battery products, the export tax refund rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% until December 31, 2026, after which it will also be canceled [1]. - **Consumption Tax Policy**: The announcement specifies that the consumption tax policies for the products listed will remain unchanged, continuing to apply the consumption tax refund (exemption) policy for products subject to consumption tax [1]. - **Export Date Definition**: The applicable export refund rates for the products will be determined based on the export date indicated on the customs declaration [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to help stabilize export prices and reduce trade friction in the long term [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products marks the first comprehensive removal of such rebates since their introduction in October 2013, where companies initially enjoyed up to a 50% rebate [2]. - The export tax rebate rate for battery products will be gradually reduced from 9% to 6% until it is completely eliminated on January 1, 2027, reflecting the unique considerations of the battery segment [3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The adjustment in export tax policy is seen as a measure to combat "internal competition and externalization," which has led to a decline in export prices and increased trade friction risks for the photovoltaic industry [1][2]. - The cancellation of the rebate is expected to directly impact companies' pricing strategies, with potential profit reductions or increased price pressures as the previous 9% rebate would have provided approximately 27 billion USD in tax refunds annually [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The industry is likely to experience a "rush to export" effect before the policy takes effect, as companies may seek to mitigate cost pressures through increased exports [5]. - The transition from a focus on exporting products to establishing local production capabilities in regions like Europe, the Middle East, and North America is anticipated, driven by the need to avoid trade barriers and offset rising domestic export costs [5].

【#4月起取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税#】财政部、税务总局发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策 的公告：自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日， 将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。对 上述产品中征收消费税的产品，出口消费税政策不作调整，继续适用消费税退（免）税政策。本公告所 列产品适用的出口退税率以出口货物报关单注明的出口日期界定。 转自：贝壳财经 ...