7月22日，匈牙利央行宣布将基准利率维持在6.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% during the upcoming policy meeting, as officials wish to observe the impacts of US-Japan trade negotiations and domestic political changes on fiscal policy before taking further action [1][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The Bank of Japan's policy committee, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, is expected to decide to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% [1]. - Officials believe that the recent electoral defeat of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will have minimal impact on the central bank's gradual rate hike stance [1][5]. - The decision to pause rate hikes is influenced by ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations, with officials wanting to assess the potential effects of any trade agreements on inflation and the economy [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan officials consider it appropriate to continue raising the benchmark interest rate if the economic outlook aligns with expectations, but they require more time to evaluate external and internal uncertainties [5]. - Despite the ruling coalition losing its majority in the upper house elections, this has not immediately altered the Bank of Japan's policy trajectory [5]. - The central bank is closely monitoring the government's fiscal policy direction, which may be influenced by the election results [5]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - There is an increasing risk of upward inflation pressure, primarily due to rising prices of rice and other food-related items, which have exceeded the central bank's expectations [5]. - Some central bank officials believe that if the government significantly loosens fiscal policy, it will be necessary to monitor its potential upward impact on inflation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its benchmark interest rate unchanged next week, indicating that the upcoming elections will have little impact on its monetary policy stance [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's decision to keep the interest rate steady reflects its assessment of the current economic conditions [1] - The central bank believes that the elections will not significantly influence its interest rate policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate next week, indicating that the upcoming elections will have little impact on its monetary policy stance [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan plans to observe the effects of trade negotiations before making any decisions on interest rate hikes [1] - There is a concern that significant fiscal easing could lead to upward risks in prices [1]

Group 1 - The recent rise in equity market sentiment has led to a narrow fluctuation in the bond market, with 10-year and 30-year government bonds struggling to break previous lows, while credit bonds and local government bonds are performing relatively strongly, indicating that compressing yield spreads is becoming a less obstructive direction in an unclear benchmark interest rate environment [1] - As of July 18, 2025, the active bond index for 5-10 year government bonds has decreased by 0.02%, while the government bond ETF for the same duration has seen a recent price of 117.55 yuan, with a nearly 1-year cumulative increase of 5.06% [3] - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has a recent trading volume of 16.18 billion yuan, with an active market turnover rate of 108.29%, and an average daily trading volume of 7.40 billion yuan over the past month [3] Group 2 - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has a recent scale of 1.494 billion yuan, with net inflows and outflows remaining balanced, accumulating a total of 61.71 million yuan in inflows over the past 21 trading days [3] - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has achieved a net value increase of 21.14% over the past 5 years, with a maximum monthly return of 2.58% and a historical profitability rate of 100% over 3 years [3] - The Sharpe ratio for the government bond ETF for 5-10 years over the past 2 years is 1.26, with a maximum drawdown of 2.15% this year, and a management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Angola has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 19.5% [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects the bank's strategy to manage inflation and stabilize the economy [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current tightening policy is deemed "entirely appropriate" by the New York Fed President Williams, who anticipates that tariffs will have a greater impact on inflation in the coming months [1] - Williams expects tariffs to raise inflation rates by approximately one percentage point from the second half of this year until 2026, with a weaker dollar potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures [1] - Recent inflation data indicates that tariffs imposed by Trump on imported goods have started to increase prices for certain items, although overall consumer prices have decreased for five consecutive months due to moderate service cost increases [1] Group 2 - Williams predicts that the economic growth rate will decline to around 1% this year, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to approximately 4.5% [2] - The importance of an independent central bank for national economic health is emphasized, with Williams stating that it leads to better outcomes in price and economic stability [2] - Despite a more than 8% depreciation of the dollar against a basket of developed market currencies this year, Williams reassures that the dollar's status as a reserve currency remains solid, supported by fundamental factors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Peru has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.50% [1] Group 1 - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects the bank's assessment of the current economic conditions [1] - The stability of the interest rate is aimed at supporting economic growth while managing inflation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, aligning with market expectations [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - In May, the Bank of Korea lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to support economic growth amid weak domestic demand and uncertainties from U.S. tariffs [4]. - The next rate cut is anticipated to be postponed until October due to rising domestic housing prices and household debt [4]. - The central bank is focusing on financial stability, especially given the risks in the real estate market [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in June was reported at 2.2%, slightly above the expected 2.1%, with core inflation remaining stable at 2.0% for the second consecutive month [4]. - The growth in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June was primarily influenced by base effects, and a slowdown in CPI growth is expected in July if oil prices and foreign exchange trends remain stable [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement to maintain the interest rate, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the South Korean won showed little change [5]. - The KOSPI index experienced fluctuations, rising nearly 1% at one point [6].

Group 1 - The Bank of Korea has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%, aligning with market expectations [1]