Group 1: Macro Strategy and Global Capital Investment - The article discusses the extension of the tariff exemption period for Sino-U.S. trade talks by 90 days, indicating a phase of stabilization in Sino-U.S. economic relations [3] - The U.S. has initiated a new differentiated tariff structure, with a unified 40% tax rate on transshipment trade, impacting countries like Vietnam, the UK, and Indonesia [3] Group 2: Domestic Economy and Industrial Policy - The Political Bureau meeting emphasized a "seeking progress while maintaining stability" approach, focusing on promoting consumption, addressing internal competition, upgrading industries, and preventing risks [4] - Key meetings held include discussions on market regulation development and industrial and information technology planning for 2025, highlighting the government's commitment to economic recovery and reform [4] Group 3: Capital Market - Positive signals from policy levels aim to consolidate the recovery of the capital market, with a focus on enhancing its attractiveness and inclusiveness [5] - The People's Bank of China is set to prevent and mitigate financial risks in key areas, establishing a macro-prudential and financial stability committee [5] Group 4: Global Geopolitical and Economic Tracking - The article notes various tariff increases announced by the U.S. on imports from India, Brazil, and copper products, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [6] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, with July non-farm payrolls showing an increase of 73,000, below market expectations [6] Group 5: Future Important Events Outlook - Upcoming events include the 2025 World Robot Expo in Beijing and the first comprehensive competition for humanoid robots, indicating a focus on technological advancements [7] - The implementation of cross-border asset management pilot business guidelines in Hainan Free Trade Port is set to take effect [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's announcement to significantly increase import tariffs on Indian products due to India's substantial purchases of Russian oil, which he claims allows India to profit at the expense of the U.S. [1][2] Trade Relations - Trump has threatened to impose punitive tariffs on India if it continues to buy Russian weapons and oil, with a potential additional 25% tariff on top of existing rates [3][5] - The U.S. has been in trade negotiations with India, but no agreements have been reached after multiple rounds of talks, primarily due to India's reluctance to make concessions on agricultural and dairy tariffs [5][7] India's Oil Imports - India has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, from an average of 68,000 barrels per day in January 2022 to a peak of 215,000 barrels per day in May 2023, making Russia its largest oil supplier [3][4] - In the first half of 2023, India imported an average of 1.75 million barrels of Russian oil per day, although recent price changes have led to a reduction in purchases by Indian state-owned oil companies [4] Economic Impact - The U.S. is India's largest export market, with Indian exports to the U.S. projected to account for 19.78% of total exports in the 2024-2025 fiscal year [9] - The imposition of a 25% tariff by the U.S. could potentially reduce India's economic growth rate by 0.2% according to estimates from Nomura Securities [9] Domestic Policy and Political Context - Indian Prime Minister Modi has emphasized the importance of protecting domestic agriculture and small industries, which are crucial for the livelihoods of many farmers [7][8] - Modi's government is under pressure to maintain its political base, especially with upcoming elections, making it unlikely to compromise on agricultural tariffs [7][8]

Group 1 - The trade tensions between the US and India are escalating, with the US imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which is part of a broader strategy by President Trump to prioritize American interests [1][2] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries have stalled, particularly over agricultural products, which are a significant point of contention [2][3] - India's average tariff rate is significantly higher than that of the US, with an average of 17% compared to the US's 3.3%, and agricultural tariffs reaching as high as 39% [2] Group 2 - India's import of Russian oil has become a focal point of the trade dispute, with Trump accusing India of profiting from reselling this oil on the open market [1][4] - In response to the tariffs, Indian Prime Minister Modi has called for a promotion of domestic products, aligning with his "Make in India" initiative to bolster local manufacturing [5][6] - The potential impact of the tariffs could lead to a significant decrease in India's exports to the US, with estimates suggesting a drop of nearly 30%, affecting sectors like apparel and pharmaceuticals [6][7] Group 3 - The trade relationship between the US and India is crucial, with the US being India's largest export destination, accounting for 18% of India's total exports in 2024, up from 6% in 2006 [6] - The imposition of tariffs could result in a revenue loss for India ranging from $7 billion to $10 billion, particularly affecting the jewelry and pharmaceutical sectors [7] - Investors are reacting cautiously to the trade tensions, as evidenced by a slight decline in Indian stock indices following the announcement of the tariffs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and India, particularly focusing on the potential increase in import tariffs by the U.S. on Indian products due to India's purchase of Russian oil and the ongoing trade negotiations that have not yielded significant results [3][4][5]. Trade Relations and Tariffs - U.S. President Trump announced plans to significantly raise import tariffs on Indian goods, citing India's substantial purchases of Russian oil as a reason [4][5]. - Currently, Indian goods exported to the U.S. face a 25% tariff, which is among the highest compared to other countries [12]. - The U.S. trade deficit with India is a major concern for Trump, who has previously urged India to purchase more American oil to reduce this deficit [3][11]. India's Response and Trade Negotiations - India has maintained a strong stance in trade negotiations, particularly regarding agricultural and dairy products, which are critical to its economy [11][12]. - Despite U.S. pressure, India continues to import Russian oil, which has become a significant part of its energy supply, accounting for nearly 40% of its total oil imports at one point [5][6]. - The Indian government has expressed its commitment to protecting its agricultural sector, which is vital for many farmers' livelihoods [11][12]. Economic Impact - The potential increase in tariffs could lead to a 0.2% decrease in India's economic growth, according to estimates from Nomura Securities [12]. - The ongoing trade tensions and high tariffs could further strain the economic relationship between the U.S. and India, which is already characterized by a significant trade imbalance [12].

【文/观察者网 熊超然】当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普和欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩共同宣布，美 欧双方达成了一项新的贸易协议。消息一出，欧洲内部开始"炸锅"，冯德莱恩也备受质疑。 英国《星期日泰晤士报》当地时间8月3日就报道披露，冯德莱恩与特朗普达成新的贸易协议有着"投 降"的意味，由于担心美国可能减少对乌克兰的军事支持，甚至从欧洲撤军，冯德莱恩毫无抵抗地同意 了一项不公平的贸易协议。 而就在当地时间8月4日，欧盟委员会发言人当天表示，根据欧盟与美国达成的协议，欧盟将在6个月内 暂停实施针对美国关税的两项反制措施。据悉，此次暂停的报复性关税措施分为两个部分，分别是针对 美国对钢铁和铝产品征收关税的回应，以及回应特朗普政府此前实施的基准关税及拟议中的汽车关税。 7月27日，苏格兰坦贝利，美国总统特朗普与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩举行会晤。IC Photo 今年4月初，特朗普公布所谓的"对等关税"，公布的"对等关税"，针对欧盟国家征收20%关税。消息一 出，金融市场陷入恐慌，投资者抛售美国资产，担心经济衰退。随着抛售加剧，特朗普有所退让，在4 月10日关税生效前夕，宣布暂时只对欧盟征收10%的"基准关税"。 然而，此 ...

关税格局逐步清晰 ■ 政策与地缘研究 8月第1期 本报告导读: 国内方面,政治局会议召开,部署下半年经济工作,预告四中全会。全球方面,中 美经贸会谈延长 90天关税豁免期;美国贸易谈判加紧推进,差异化布局"对等关税"。 投资要点: | ન | 方奕(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 5 | 021-38031658 | | P | fangyi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520120005 | | ન્ડ | 黄维驰(分析师) | | ಲ | 021-38032684 | | D | huangweichi@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880520110005 | 相关报告 | 权益回调债市涨,铜价重挫美元升 2025.08.04 | | --- | | ETF 流出有所扩大,资金整体流入放缓 2025.08.04 | | 周期品延续涨价,空调内销排产转负 2025.08.01 | | 亚太领涨风险优,商品分化金油跌 2025.07.28 | | 内资继续加速,外资接力启动 2025.07.28 | 谈会召开。3)7月30日,中共中央政治局会议召开,强调宏 ...

特朗普威胁印度，要在25%的关税基础上再加码。 特朗普在贸易问题上加码向印度"开火"。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普4日在社交媒体发文称，由于印度购买大量俄罗斯石油并借此获利，美国将大幅提 高对印度产品征收的进口关税。 目前尚不清楚特朗普将如何提高对印的关税。美印近期举行过多轮贸易谈判，但印度一直拒绝按美国要求的给予 美方农业和乳业关税优惠。根据美国7月31日公布的对69个贸易伙伴关税税率，印度输美商品将被征收25%关税。 上海国际问题研究院南亚研究中心主任刘宗义向第一财经记者表示，特朗普近来接连拿印度做文章，有多重因 素。首先在于特朗普特别在意贸易逆差问题，早在印度总理莫迪今年早些时候访问美国时，特朗普就提出印度需 要购买美国石油来削减逆差。与此同时，印度在与美国的贸易谈判上，始终不愿做过多的让步，这让特朗普更加 恼火。 印度继续买俄油 印度外交部发言人贾伊斯瓦尔4日表示，俄乌冲突爆发后，美国积极鼓励印度与俄罗斯开展贸易，以"加强全球能 源市场稳定"。声明说，美方针对印度的行动"不公正、不合理"，印度"将采取一切必要措施维护国家利益和经济 安全"。贾伊斯瓦尔还表示，印度的进口旨在确保印度消费者能够负担得起产 ...

以下文章来源于财经图解 ，作者乘桴于海 财经图解 . 财经大事早知道，关注东方财富股票！ | 乐万财富APP Q 图解财经 国家/地区 | | 最新关税 | 较4月初税率增减 | 年贸易额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 税率 | (百分点) | ( 亿美元 ) | | 欧盟 | | 15% | -5 | 10510 | | 加拿大 | 事 | 35% | 35 | 7449 | | 日本 | ● | 15% | -g | 2174 | | 韩国 | o | 15% | -10 | 1793 | | 英国 | 2 7 | 10% | 0 | 1480 | | 越南 | 1 | 20% | -26 | 1276 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 印度 | | 25% | -1 | 1235 | | 中国台湾 | * | 20% | -12 | 1114 | | 巴西 | | 10% | 0 | 748 | | 泰国 | | 19% | -17 | 730 | | 马来西亚 | | 19% | -5 | 601 | | 印度尼西 ...

新华财经北京8月5日电 印度和美国关系近期因关税和购买石油等问题龃龉不断，美国总统特朗普对印 度发出关税威胁并嘲讽其经济实力的言论引发印方强烈不满。 美国媒体日前刊登分析文章说，多年来，印度试图拉近同美国的关系，印度总理莫迪多次表示特朗普 是"真正的朋友"。但特朗普开启第二任期后，两国关系发生变化，印度与美国建立的关系"正在发生动 摇"。 路透社5日报道表示，面对西方国家要求与俄罗斯保持距离的压力，印度以与俄罗斯的长期联系和自身 经济需求为由进行抵制。消息人士提供数据显示，印度是俄罗斯海运原油的最大买家，今年1月至6月每 天进口约175万桶俄罗斯石油，较一年前增长1%。 特朗普7月30日威胁称，如果印度继续购买俄罗斯武器和石油，美方将在对印度商品征收25%进口关税 的基础上额外施加惩罚性关税。本月1日，特朗普又对媒体记者说，他相信印度打算停止购买俄罗斯石 油。 第三方的争议：同俄开展石油贸易 当地时间4日，特朗普在社交媒体上发文写道，"印度不仅购买了大量俄罗斯石油，而且还将购买的大部 分石油在公开市场上出售以获取巨额利润"。他声称，美国将大幅提高对印度产品征收的进口关税。 印度外交部发言人贾伊斯瓦尔4日回应说 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 08 月 05 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：马家进 执业编号：S0300522110002 电话：13645711472 邮箱：majiajin@ykzq.com 研究助理：孙文婷 邮箱：sunwenting1@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】对当前及下阶段房地产形势 的研判及建议》2025-08-03 《【粤开宏观】育儿补贴规模每年或可达千 亿"投资于人"信号意义明显》2025-08-01 《【粤开宏观】政治局会议释放的九大信 号》2025-07-30 《【粤开宏观】房地产调整到了什么阶段？ 对经济的影响有多大？》2025-07-28 《【粤开宏观】关税战如何影响中国物价： 表现、展望及应对》2025-07-20 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】特朗普"对等关税 2.0" 有哪些变化？为什么？影响几何？ 当地时间 7 月 31 日，特朗普签署行政令，公布了"对等关税 2.0"方案，以 替代 4 月 2 日公布的"1.0 版本"，并于 8 月 ...