1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea price is fluctuating at a low level. The supply is stable, but the high daily production restricts the upward space of the price. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. After the wheat harvest, the price may rebound with the support of agricultural and export demand, but overall it remains weak without significant changes in export policies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - The urea price opened low and moved lower, continuing to hit new lows. The spot price was mainly stable with a downward trend due to the weak futures market. The supply was stable, but the high daily production limited the upward space of the price. The demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. After the wheat harvest, the price may rebound with the support of agricultural and export demand, but overall it remains weak [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2509 opened at 1700 yuan/ton and closed at 1667 yuan/ton, down 1.48%. The trading volume was 287,041 lots, an increase of 18,208 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions increased by 7,005 lots, and the short positions increased by 18,351 lots [2]. Spot - Affected by the weak futures market, the urea spot market had difficulty in receiving orders, and the price was mainly stable with a downward trend. The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1690 - 1730 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][5]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipt Data - On June 11, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,042, a decrease of 9 compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease of 9 in Puyang Huangfu [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [8]. Supply Data - On June 11, 2025, the national daily urea production was 203,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared to the previous day [10]. Inventory Data - As of June 11, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 13.69% [13]. Pre - sale Order Days - As of June 11, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.71 days, an increase of 0.24 days compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.39% [13].

【冠通研究】 支撑乏力，关注麦收后农需 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 10 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素价格日内高开低走，午后价格下跌明显，收跌近 2%。昨日市场下 调价格后收单有好转，价格小幅调涨，但今日期货下跌，预计市场情绪继续转 弱为主。基本面来看，供应端山西天泽及安徽临泉临检，日产下降，但目前多 个统计口径尿素日产均位于 20 万吨左右，限制盘面上方空间。需求端，盘面价 格连连下降，市场情绪随之冷淡。小麦收麦尚未结束，农需不温不火，农业经 销商零星拿货，未集中进行补货。复合肥工厂灵活排产，夏季肥收尾阶段以库 存去化为主，开工负荷偏低。库存被动累库主动累库并行，需求疲弱叠加出口 检验等待下，库存同比偏高。小麦收割结束后，预计农需将增加，但对尿素支 撑力度有限，无法削弱供需过剩的核心逻辑，目前价格偏低，行情或有反弹， 反弹强度继续关注出口动态。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1700 元/吨高开低走，最终收于 1678 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-1.24%，持仓量 268833 手（+2976 手）。前二十名主力持仓 席位来看，多头-6305 手，空头+955 手。其中，东证期货净 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250610: 需求偏弱,关注后市农需释放 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 6月9日 6月6日 单位 | | | | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | | (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1656.00 1695.00 1760.00 | 1669.00 1700.00 1830.00 | -13.00 -5.00 -70.00 | -0.78% -0.29% -3.83% | | | 民素期货价格 | | | | | | | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1697.00 | 1720.00 | -23.00 | -1.34% | | 期现价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1640.00 | 1690.00 | -50.00 | -2.96% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1760.00 | 1830.00 | -70.00 | -3.83% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 ...

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2509 期价下跌 31 元至 1697 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格 下跌 70 元至 1760 元/吨，多头持仓增加 13605 手至 20.34 万手，空头持仓增加 17897 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 尿素 | 加 震荡偏 | 手至 20.39 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.77 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.27 万吨，较去年同 期增加 3.52 万吨；开工 90.33%，较去年同期 79.64%提升 10.69%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 103.54 万吨，较上周增加 5.48 万吨，环比增 5.59%。尿素港口库存 20.5 万吨，环比持平。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.1 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货增仓下跌，最终报收 1697（-31/-1.79%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价跌幅扩大，成交一般，河南出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 172-1740 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1640-1710 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1760-1770 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】6 月 9 日，尿素行业日产 20.51 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.64 万吨，较去 年同期增加 2.62 万吨；今日开工 89.18%，较去年同期 82.62%回升 6.56%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪依旧疲软，主流地区尿素现货出厂报报价跌幅扩大，成交一般。山 东地区主流出厂报价大幅领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原料 库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易商 出货为主，新单成交一般，代发告罄，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低， 出厂报价大幅跟 ...

| | | 尿素早评20250609:关注后市反弹机会 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 6月6日 6月5日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1669.00 1830.00 | 1670.00 1850.00 | -1.00 -20.00 | | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1700.00 | 1701.00 | -1.00 | -0.06% | | (收盘价) | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1722.00 | -2.00 | -0.12% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1830.00 | 1840.00 | -10.00 | -0.54% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | (小額粒) | | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1850.00 | 1860.00 | -10.00 | -0.54% | | | | 东北 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-6-6 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面回落。供应方面，开工率及日产持续高位，近期有新装置投产，库 存短期震荡。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回落，三聚氰胺开工偏高，农业需求短期偏弱。尿 素国际价格强势，5月15-16日尿素出口专题会议召开，出口政策落地，内外价格双轨制使得出口 利润高但对国内价格影响小。交割品现货1800（-20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差26，升贴水比例1.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存118.2万吨（+16.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On June 5, 2025, the urea price opened low and moved lower during the day, dropping nearly 3%. The market has a consistent expectation of weak demand, and the overall trend is bearish. Attention should be paid to the short - term support from subsequent agricultural demand release and the export end [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea price opened low and moved lower during the day, with upstream factory prices slightly decreasing and new orders progressing slowly. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The daily production on the supply side remained unchanged, with multiple statistical calibers showing daily production above 200,000 tons, which limits the upside. On the demand side, it is currently the wheat harvest stage, with sporadic agricultural purchases and no concentrated replenishment. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased, and the summer fertilizer production is basically finished. Upstream factories are accumulating inventory, and there may be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the recovery of agricultural demand [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1768 yuan/ton, closed at 1722 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.88%. The position increased by 26,121 hands to 245,711 hands. Among the top twenty main position - holding seats, long positions increased by 12,125 hands and short positions increased by 17,530 hands. On June 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,357, a decrease of 52 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - Upstream factory prices are stable with a slight decline, new orders progress slowly, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1790 - 1830 yuan/ton, and the transaction center has slightly moved down [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price dropped. Based on Shandong region, the basis of the September contract strengthened compared to the previous trading day, reaching 118 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On June 5, 2025, the national urea daily production was 201,500 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8] Downstream Data - From May 30 to June 5, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from the previous week [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The production enterprise capacity utilization rate is 89.43%, a 0.40% decrease from the previous period, with the trend shifting from rising to falling. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of a decline in production is high. Recently, local agricultural demand continues to progress, while domestic industrial demand weakens. As high - nitrogen fertilizer production nears completion, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate drops. Due to some urea enterprises receiving export orders and being in the legal inspection period, urea supplies are temporarily locked. This week, domestic urea enterprise inventories continue to increase slightly. Although there is an expectation of downstream goods being shipped to ports in the short term, the enterprise inventory still has a slight upward trend. The UR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1800 in the short term [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 245,711 lots, an increase of 26,121 lots; the net position of the top 20 is 3,536, a decrease of 5,639. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,357, a decrease of 52 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1860 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan is 1850 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jiangsu is 1900 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong is 1850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan), and in Anhui is 1900 yuan/ton (unchanged). The main contract basis is 128 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan. The FOB price in the Baltic is 355 dollars/ton (unchanged), and in the Chinese main port is 360 dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 20.5 million tons (unchanged from the previous week), and the enterprise inventory is 103.54 million tons, an increase of 5.48 million tons, a 5.59% increase. The urea enterprise operating rate is 89.83%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points; the daily output is 206,600 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons. The urea export volume is 0 (unchanged), and the monthly output is 5,845,080 tons, a decrease of 242,000 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 40.09%, an increase of 2.52 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 62.98%, a decrease of 3.51 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 182 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 338 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5.8507 million tons, a decrease of 0.9876 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,280 tons, a decrease of 1,740 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 4, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 103.54 million tons, a 5.59% increase from the previous week. As of June 5, the port sample inventory is 20.5 million tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of June 5, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.4394 billion tons, a 0.45% decrease from the previous period. There are newly - added coal - based production enterprise device shutdowns, and the daily output of domestic urea has decreased slightly. Next week, it is expected that 1 enterprise will plan to shut down, and 2 - 4 shut - down enterprises will resume production [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, with the futures price expected to fluctuate weakly today. The high daily production, short - term inventory fluctuations, and weak short - term agricultural demand contribute to this outlook. After the export policy was implemented, the price declined [4]. - The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and marginal changes in demand. The main risk factor is the change in export policy [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has recently declined. Supply shows high operating rates and daily production, with new plants coming into operation and short - term inventory fluctuations. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has declined, the operating rate of melamine is relatively high, and agricultural demand is short - term weak. The international urea price is strong. After the export policy was implemented on May 15 - 16, the dual - track price system results in high export profits but has little impact on domestic prices. The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (-10) [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 76, with a premium/discount ratio of 4.1%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.114 million tons (+0), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract has declined. With high daily production, short - term inventory fluctuations, weak short - term agricultural demand, and price decline after the export policy implementation, the UR is expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. - **Leverage factors**: Bullish factor is the strong overseas price; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, new plant commissioning, and overall weak demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (-10), Shandong spot is 1870 (0), Henan spot is 1850 (0), and FOB China is 2588 [4][6]. | | Futures | The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 are 1703 (0), 1717 (0), and 1773 (0) respectively. The basis of the UR2509 contract is 77 (0) [6]. | | Inventory | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.114 million tons (+0), including 981,000 tons of factory inventory and 133,000 tons of port inventory, and the number of warehouse receipts is 6854 (+0) [4][6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, urea production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The consumption growth rate fluctuated, with the highest being 17.9% in 2020 and the lowest being 0.3% in 2022. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].