Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot trading weakened after the previous week's simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, awaiting a driving force. Some regions are in the process of autumn fertilization for agriculture, and the production of autumn fertilizers for compound fertilizers is coming to an end. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased as some previously shut - down devices have resumed production. Currently, the compound fertilizers for winter wheat are mainly for inventory clearance, and the sales sentiment has improved with the clearing weather. The operation of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased this week. Inner Mongolia still has the highest inventory in the country. In November, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast will gradually start production. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast and the national off - season storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are still export windows. Urea exports reached 1.37 million tons in September, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. There are both container loading and departure at ports, and the inventory is being depleted. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was $402/ton on the west coast and $395/ton on the east coast. The current urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent urea export dynamics [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][8][13][16] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [24][25][28][30] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures involve urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [32][34][38][40][43] 5. Urea Downstream Operation and Orders - Relevant figures are compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [49][50][51] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main contract holding volume, and main contract trading volume [54][56][59]

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: October 30, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have started to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while the industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. Although the domestic urea market remains oversupplied, the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -64, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.1%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (-201,000), also bearish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. The main contract of urea is expected to rebound, with weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international urea prices, and increasing export volume. Despite the obvious domestic oversupply, the price is expected to rise in the short term, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and upward trend today [4]. Summary by Directory Urea Overview Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are declining from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory is slightly decreasing. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but decreasing price difference between domestic and international markets. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the market is expected to recover in the short term. The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis - The UR2601 contract basis is -64, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (-201,000), showing a bearish signal [4]. Disk - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, but the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The main contract of urea is expected to rebound, with weak industrial demand, rising agricultural demand, strong international urea prices, and increasing export volume. Despite the obvious domestic oversupply, the price is expected to rise in the short term, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and upward trend today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Bullish Factors - Strong international prices, increasing exports, and short-term decline in daily production [5]. Bearish Factors - Domestic oversupply [5]. Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of the delivery product is 1580 (-10), the price of Shandong spot is 1600 (-10), and the price of Henan spot is 1580 (0). The price of the FOB China is 2662. The price of the UR01 contract is 1644 (9), the price of the UR05 contract is 1717 (9), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1747 (11). The basis of the UR01 contract is -64 (-19). The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons, the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 210,000 tons [6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. Core Views - Supply: As of October 22, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 185,000 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuated around 180,000 - 190,000 tons. Based on the current daily output, the production in October is expected to be 5.85 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. With the increasing losses of gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has started to shut down. Near the winter gas - limiting season, the daily production of gas - fired plants is expected to decline next month. Fixed - bed and natural gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After reaching the bottom recently, the urea price has stabilized and rebounded, and the profit has also stabilized. There is cost support below the urea futures price [5][35]. - Demand: Since this month, affected by the National Day holiday, the factory operating load decreased significantly at the beginning of the month and then gradually increased. In the first half of the month, the changeable weather postponed the corn harvest and wheat sowing, and the terminal sales were weak. As time passed, after the agricultural demand started, the factory's finished - product inventory gradually decreased but was still slightly higher than the same period last year. Currently, the compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China are expected to gradually start production by late November. As the autumn fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start. The operating rate of melamine has also shown a seasonal decline, providing little support for urea. The real - estate data remains sluggish. It is expected that the operating load will rebound next month, but the overall increase is expected to be weaker than in previous years [5]. - Inventory: This month, the urea inventory has increased significantly. On the one hand, during the National Day holiday, the production remained high while the downstream procurement decreased, greatly increasing the in - factory inventory. On the other hand, the agricultural demand was postponed this month, leading to an increase in the in - factory inventory. However, as the agricultural demand progresses, the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, but it is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that the inventory will increase moderately. Overall, due to the losses of upstream urea plants and the approaching gas - limiting season, the production will fluctuate slightly downward and is expected to remain at around 180,000 tons. The in - factory inventory is still relatively high year - on - year, and the supply is relatively loose. The domestic demand is difficult to absorb the high - level inventory. As the agricultural demand gradually ends, the subsequent downstream reserves and compound fertilizer production will be the main demand sources. The winter storage rhythm and changes in export policies will also affect the price trend. Currently, the market is oscillating at a low level [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The spot market was weak during the National Day holiday. After the futures market opened, the price dropped significantly and continued to decline. The futures price once reached a low of 1,578 yuan/ton and then started to consolidate at a low level. It rebounded in the second half of the month, but there was obvious upward pressure. It is expected to consolidate in the future. Attention should be paid to the impact of domestic macro - factors and possible changes in export policies [9]. Warehouse Receipts and Delivery - The validity period of urea warehouse and factory warehouse receipts is up to 4 months. Specifically, factory and warehouse standard warehouse receipts registered before the 15th trading day (inclusive) of February, June, and October each year should be fully cancelled before the 15th trading day (inclusive) of the same month. As of October 23, there were 5,484 registered urea warehouse receipts. Although approaching the cancellation date, the number is still at an absolute high level compared to the same period in history. Since 2025, the number of registered urea warehouse receipts has remained relatively high in recent years, reflecting the high - supply situation of urea to some extent [12]. Spot Price - Since October, the agricultural demand has been postponed due to frequent rainfall, resulting in weak terminal demand for urea and a continuous decline in price. Subsequently, supported by the cost side and with the start of agricultural demand and the end of the autumn fertilizer season, the price stopped falling and rebounded slightly. However, due to high supply and high inventory, the rebound space is limited. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of downstream fertilizer preparation and winter storage. The ex - factory prices in major regions fluctuate in the range of 1,500 - 1,600 yuan/ton. Looking forward to November, the end of the autumn fertilizer season, the spring production of compound fertilizers, off - season storage, and the rhythm of gas - fired plant restrictions will all affect the price movement. It is expected that the price will fluctuate narrowly after a rebound [19]. Basis - The urea basis has been in a state of contango. The pattern of loose supply and demand has suppressed the spot price. After the domestic demand is weak and the export demand is gradually digested, the decline in the spot price is greater than that of the futures price, resulting in the futures price being at a premium. Near the off - season storage period, if the basis is appropriate, hedging can be carried out on the futures market [23]. Spread - As of October 24, the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, weaker than - 2 yuan/ton at the end of last month. Recently, the urea futures contracts have gradually rebounded, but the upward and downward space for the 01 contract is limited, and the 05 contract is still far away. The spread is expected to fluctuate at a low level [27]. Supply - In September 2025, the urea production was 5.73867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 101,800 tons (1.8%). As of October 22, the monthly daily production calculated by Longzhong data was 185,000 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuated around 180,000 - 190,000 tons. Based on the current daily output, the production in October is expected to be 5.85 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years. With the increasing losses of gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has started to shut down. Near the winter gas - limiting season, the daily production of gas - fired plants is expected to decline next month [35]. - In November, Jiangsu Linggu and Hainan Fudao are scheduled for maintenance, each affecting a production of 2,500 tons. From 2026 to 2026, multiple enterprises are planning to put new production capacity into operation, with a total planned new capacity of 5.64 million tons/year [38]. Cost and Profit - As of October 24, the price of small - sized Jincheng anthracite was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The price of 5,500 - calorie thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 767 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton from the previous month. In October, the significant temperature difference between the north and south in China increased the demand for coal. As the temperature gradually dropped, the demand for coal for winter heating increased. The environmental protection restrictions on mines continued, and major conferences boosted macro - expectations, leading to a continuous increase in the thermal coal price and stronger urea production costs. At the same time, the price of liquefied natural gas increased during the month, intensifying the losses of gas - fired plants. As of October 24, the cost of fixed - bed production was 1,917 yuan/ton, the cost of water - coal slurry production was 1,502 yuan/ton, and the cost of natural gas production was 1,971 yuan/ton. According to Longzhong's data, the theoretical profit of the coal - fired fixed - bed process was - 347 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit of the new coal - water slurry process was 58 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the gas - fired process was - 291 yuan/ton. Fixed - bed and natural gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After reaching the bottom recently, the urea price has stabilized and rebounded, and the profit has also stabilized. There is cost support below the urea futures price [42]. Inventory and Pending Orders - As of October 24, 2025, the in - factory urea inventory was 1.6302 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 457,600 tons. This month, the urea inventory increased significantly. On the one hand, during the National Day holiday, the production remained high while the downstream procurement decreased, greatly increasing the in - factory inventory. On the other hand, the agricultural demand was postponed this month, leading to an increase in the in - factory inventory. However, as the agricultural demand progresses, the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, but it is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. It is expected that the inventory will increase moderately. The number of days of pending orders from enterprises first decreased and then increased during the month. As the autumn fertilizer season continued to progress, the pressure on enterprises for pending orders decreased [46]. Downstream Agricultural Demand - The agricultural demand for urea in the second half of the year and the fourth quarter is generally weaker than that in the first half of the year. Since the fourth quarter of this year, the weather has affected the corn harvest and wheat sowing, causing the agricultural demand to be scattered. As the autumn fertilizer season ends, the agricultural demand will become sporadic [49]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - Since this month, affected by the National Day holiday, the operating load of factories decreased significantly at the beginning of the month and then gradually increased. In the first half of the month, the changeable weather postponed the corn harvest and wheat sowing, and the terminal sales were weak. As time passed, after the agricultural demand started, the factory's finished - product inventory gradually decreased but was still slightly higher than the same period last year. Currently, the compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China are expected to gradually start production by late November. As the autumn fertilizer season is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start [57]. Compound Fertilizer Price - It is expected that the prices of raw materials such as sulfur, monoammonium phosphate, and ammonium chloride will rise, while the prices of potassium chloride and potassium sulfate will remain stable. The urea price has stopped falling and stabilized. The subsequent fertilizer - preparation period is expected to be based on the price fluctuations of raw materials for procurement. Currently, the production profit is lower than that of last year. Factories are mainly finishing the production of autumn fertilizers and will purchase and reserve at low prices in the future [62][63]. Other Industrial Demands - As of October 24, 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate of melamine dropped to 48.3%. The rainfall in various parts of the country this month affected the progress of terminal industries. The operating rate of melamine has also shown a seasonal decline, providing little support for urea. The real - estate data remains sluggish. It is expected that the operating load will rebound next month, but the overall increase is expected to be weaker than in previous years [67]. International Urea Market - The international urea price first decreased and then increased this month. The continuous Indian tenders provided support for the market. European countries entered the market to purchase, and the sales situation of urea in North Africa improved, with prices rising in some regions. China has exported a large amount this month, and China's export situation will still affect the international urea price [72]. Indian Tenders - On October 17, it was learned that the price of the urea tender issued by RCF on October 15 had been announced, with the lowest bid price on the east coast being $395/ton CFR. So far, there has been no change in China's urea export quota. It is estimated that China's participation in this tender will be limited, and this Indian tender price is lower than market expectations, having limited impact on the domestic urea market and causing no obvious price fluctuations [76]. Export Demand - As of October 24, 2025, the urea port inventory was 210,000 tons. Since September, the port inventory has been continuously decreasing. As the export window period ended, the port inventory has gradually been digested and is now at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There is currently no official news about changes in urea export policies. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [79].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently characterized by relatively high factory inventories, ample supply, and weak domestic demand that struggles to absorb high - level inventories. With agricultural demand winding down, the market will focus on subsequent fertilizer stockpiling. In the short term, it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed flat today. The spot market prices have been rising since the weekend, with agricultural dealers actively stockpiling fertilizers but becoming more cautious after price increases. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with price increases mostly between 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Henan [1][4]. - The monthly average daily production calculated by Longzhong data is 18.50 tons, and the recent daily production fluctuates around 18 - 19 tons. Due to increased losses in gas - fired plants, Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down. With winter gas and production restrictions approaching, gas - fired daily production is expected to decline next month. Fixed - bed and natural - gas plants continue to operate at a loss, while the water - coal slurry process has declined continuously. After hitting the bottom recently, urea prices have rebounded, and profits have stabilized, providing cost support for the futures [1]. - As time progresses, factory inventories are gradually being depleted after agricultural demand, but they are still slightly higher than the same period last year. Northeast compound fertilizer plants are expected to gradually start production in late November. As autumn fertilizer production nears completion, subsequent production is expected to gradually increase, and spring compound fertilizer production will gradually begin. Although the rate of inventory accumulation has decreased, the inventory is still in an accumulation cycle, and it is expected to increase moderately. Overall, factory inventories are still higher year - on - year, supply is relatively abundant, and domestic demand is insufficient to absorb high - level inventories. Agricultural demand is gradually ending, and the focus of domestic demand is on subsequent fertilizer stockpiling. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate at a low level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1647 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, and finally closed flat at 1640 yuan/ton, forming a negative candlestick, with a change of + 0.00%. The trading volume was 281,954 lots, a decrease of 4384 lots [2]. - On October 27, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5288, a decrease of 119 compared to the previous trading day. Among them, Jilin Yuyuan decreased by 100, and Hengshui Cotton and Linen decreased by 18 [2]. - Spot: Since the weekend, spot market quotes have been rising continuously. Agricultural dealers are actively stockpiling fertilizers but are more cautious after price increases. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with price increases mostly between 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and the lowest price in Henan [1][4]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes increased, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on Henan, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply data: According to Feiyitong data, on October 27, 2025, the national daily production of urea was 19.04 tons, a decrease of 0.58 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8].

| 尿素早评20251027: 情绪好转，反转存疑 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 10月24日 10月23日 单位 | | (绝对值) | 变化值 | 英化值 (相对值) | | UR01 元/吨 1642.00 1638.00 山东 元/吨 1570.00 1550.00 山西 元/吨 1500.00 1480.00 | | | 4.00 20.00 20.00 | | | UR05 元/吨 1719.00 1710.00 尿素期货价格 | | | 9.00 | 0.24% 0.53% | | (收盘价) UR09 元/吨 1748.00 1740.00 | | | 8.00 | 0.46% | | | | | | 1.29% | | | 期现价格 | | | 1.35% | | 河南 元/吨 1570.00 1550.00 国内现货价格 | | | 20.00 | 1.29% | | (小顆粒) 元/吨 河北 1600.00 1590.00 | | | 10.00 | 0.63% | | 东北 元/吨 1600.00 1600.00 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [4] - Inter - period: On the sidelines [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices have slightly increased, and with the rise of the futures market, spot trading has improved. Some regions are in the process of autumn fertilizer application for agriculture, and the production of autumn compound fertilizers is coming to an end. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased this week. As the weather clears, the sales sentiment has improved. The operating rate of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium to long term, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity. With the improvement of the weather, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the inventory accumulation rate has slowed down this week. The current national inventory accumulation is mainly in Inner Mongolia. Starting from late October, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast are gradually starting operations. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast and the national off - season storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and September and October are still export windows. There is co - existence of port collection and departure, leading to inventory reduction. The export policy of urea may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent export dynamics [3] Summary by Directory Price and Spreads - Urea futures prices: The main urea contract closed at 1642 yuan/ton (+4). The prices of small - particle urea in Henan, Shandong, and Jiangsu markets were all 1570 yuan/ton (+20). The prices of different contracts (01, 05, 09) are also presented in the report [2] - Spreads: The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads are analyzed. The basis of urea in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu is - 72 yuan/ton (+16) [2] Upstream Supply - As of October 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 77.61% (-2.06%), and the in - plant inventory of enterprises was 1.63 million tons (+15,000). The gas - based and coal - based operating rates of urea, as well as the production cost and profit, are also presented in the relevant figures [2][30] Downstream Demand - As of October 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 27.71% (+3.53%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 48.30% (-6.9%). The number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 7.41 days (+0.7). The FOB prices of small and large - particle urea in China, as well as the CFR prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia, are also analyzed [2][39] Urea Inventory - As of October 26, 2025, the port inventory was 210,000 tons (-236,000). The in - plant inventory, port inventory, and social inventories in Guangdong and Guangxi are also presented in the figures [2][58]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short the spread when the price is high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices are mainly stable, with a slight increase in the futures market and improved spot trading, but downstream procurement remains cautious [2] - In the medium - to long - term, urea supply and demand are still relatively loose due to the release of new production capacity [2] - With the improvement of weather, agricultural demand for urea increases. Northeast compound fertilizer plants will gradually start production in late October, and attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast [2] - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are export windows. In September, 1.37 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - contract basis, Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][8][13][16] 2. Urea Production - Figures cover urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18][21] 3. Urea Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures include production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization [25][26][27][28] 4. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - Figures involve urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and futures export profit [30][35][38][41] 5. Urea Downstream Capacity Utilization and Orders - Figures include compound fertilizer capacity utilization, melamine capacity utilization, and urea enterprise advance order days [54][49] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures consist of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, Hebei urea downstream manufacturers' raw material inventory days, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [52][55][60] Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On October 22, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,621 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,540 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,540 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,540 yuan/ton (-10). The price of small - block anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was - 81 yuan/ton (-12), in Henan was - 81 yuan/ton (-12), and in Jiangsu was - 81 yuan/ton (-22). Urea production profit was 10 yuan/ton (unchanged), and export profit was 992 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - **Supply Side**: As of October 22, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.6302 million tons (+14,800 tons), and the port sample inventory was 446,000 tons (+31,000 tons) [1] - **Demand Side**: As of October 22, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 24.18% (-1.32%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 55.18% (-10.29%), and the advance order days of urea enterprises were 7.41 days (+0.70) [1]

[尿ta素ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 10 月 21 日 低估值，待驱动 风险提示：出口政策收紧，老旧装置改造延迟。 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《尿素周报 0722：基本面偏弱，价格重 心下移》 《尿素周报 0812：出口炒作影响盘面情 绪》 《尿素周报 0826：短期反弹，空间有限》 《尿素周报 0909：供强需弱格局延续》 《尿素周报 1021：供应过剩是中长期矛 盾》 《尿素周报 1104：关注反弹后的卖出机 会》 《尿素周报 1118：维持空配观点》 《尿素周报 0217：出口传言再起》 《尿素周报 0310：供需双旺，价格区间 震荡为主》 《尿素周报 0401：需求支撑价格》 《尿素周报 0520：回落空间有限》 《尿素周报0916：做多机会或逐步到来》 期货（期权）研究报告 | 一、 行情回顾 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 0915-1020：震荡下跌 | 4 | | 二、 基差与价差 | 4 | ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 10 月 21 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货宽幅震荡，最终报收 1609（+2/+0.12%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价稳中下调，成交一般，河南出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1490-1500 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1540-1550 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1500-1510 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1400-1470 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【隆众尿素】10 月 21 日，尿素行业日产 18.25 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.03 万吨； 较去年同期减少 0.66 万吨；今日开工率 77.99%，较去年同期 84.82%下降 6.83%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌，成交平平。山东地区 主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕， 成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交 乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价跟涨，贸 易 ...

策略 尿素日报 | 2025-10-21 尿素9月出口137万吨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-10-20，尿素主力收盘1600元/吨（-2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1550 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1550元/吨（-10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1560元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-50 元/吨（-8）；河南基差：-50元/吨（+2）；江苏基差：-40元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润20元/吨（-10），出口利润983元 /吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-20，企业产能利用率79.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为161.54 万吨（+17.15），港口样 本库存量为44.60 万吨（+3.10）。 需求端：截至2025-10-20，复合肥产能利用率24.18%（-1.32%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为55.18%（-10.29%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.71日（-0.29）。 尿素现货低价成交好转，部分厂家小幅上调报价后成交降温，再次小幅下调报价。目前部分地区农业秋季肥进行 中，复合肥秋季肥生产收尾，开工率下降，冬小麦所需的复合肥以清库为主，且因秋雨较 ...