Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Taiyuan is experiencing a short-term rebound in second-hand housing prices, contrasting with the overall downward trend observed in other cities across the country [5][9][10]. Summary by Sections National Real Estate Market Trends - In July, second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities in China saw a general decline, with first-tier cities down by 1.0% and second and third-tier cities down by 0.5% [3][9]. - Only six cities reported an increase in new housing prices, with the highest being Shanghai and Urumqi, both at 0.3% [9][10]. Taiyuan's Economic Context - Taiyuan's GDP reached 5418 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 1.2%, significantly lower than the national average of 3.8% [5][6]. - The city has postponed its goal of reaching a GDP of 1 trillion yuan from 2025 to 2027 due to various macroeconomic challenges [5][6]. Second-hand Housing Market in Taiyuan - In July, Taiyuan was the only city to see a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices, rising by 0.2%, while the year-on-year figure fell by 4.6% [6][8]. - The new housing market in Taiyuan experienced a slight decline of 0.2% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [6][8]. Factors Influencing Taiyuan's Housing Prices - The relative stability of Taiyuan's real estate market is attributed to its historical growth patterns, with less aggressive expansion compared to other provincial capitals [7][9]. - Certain districts in Taiyuan, such as Yingze and Wanbailin, have shown slight increases in second-hand housing prices, indicating localized market strength [7][8]. Future Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall trend suggests that while there is a short-term rebound in Taiyuan, the long-term outlook for second-hand housing prices remains uncertain due to a predominance of price declines across the broader market [8][10]. - The central government is expected to implement more supportive policies to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on improving housing supply and addressing the challenges faced by the second-hand housing market [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Taiyuan is experiencing a short-term rebound in second-hand housing prices, while the overall national trend shows a decline in housing prices across major cities [1][5][7]. Economic Overview - Taiyuan's GDP reached 5418 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 1.2%, which is significantly lower than the national average of 3.8% [2]. - The city has postponed its goal of reaching a GDP of 1 trillion yuan from 2027 to 2027 due to various macroeconomic and industrial factors [2]. Housing Market Dynamics - In July, second-hand housing prices in Taiyuan increased by 0.2% month-on-month, while the year-on-year decline was 4.6% [1][5]. - Taiyuan is the only city among 70 major cities in China to report a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices in July [1][3]. - The new housing market in Taiyuan saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% in July, but a year-on-year increase of 1.0% [5]. Regional Price Trends - The second-hand housing market in Taiyuan shows signs of stability, with some areas experiencing slight price increases [3][4]. - Specific districts in Taiyuan, such as Yingze and Wanbailin, reported month-on-month price increases of 0.37% and 0.05%, respectively [3]. Market Challenges - Despite the short-term rebound in second-hand housing prices, the overall market remains under pressure, with a year-to-date average price decline of 4.8% [5][6]. - The real estate market is facing a dilemma where sellers are reluctant to lower prices, while buyers are unwilling to purchase at current prices, leading to prolonged transaction cycles [7][8]. Policy Implications - The central government emphasizes the need for effective measures to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal and improving housing supply [8][9]. - Future policies may focus on enhancing the quality of housing supply and addressing the large inventory of unsold properties [9].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a phase of stabilization, but significant efforts are still needed to ensure a complete recovery, as evidenced by the mixed performance of housing prices across different cities [8][9]. National Real Estate Market Overview - In July, the second-hand housing prices in 70 major cities in China saw a general decline, with first-tier cities dropping by 1.0%, and second and third-tier cities both decreasing by 0.5% [1][8]. - Only one city, Taiyuan, experienced a slight increase in second-hand housing prices, rising by 0.2% month-on-month, while the year-on-year figure showed a decline of 4.6% [1][4]. Taiyuan's Economic and Housing Market Analysis - Taiyuan's GDP reached 5418 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 1.2%, which is significantly lower than the national average of 3.8% [3][4]. - The city had previously set an ambitious goal to reach a GDP of 1 trillion yuan by 2025, but this target has now been postponed to 2027 due to various macroeconomic challenges [3][4]. Housing Price Trends in Taiyuan - Despite the overall economic challenges, Taiyuan's new housing prices have shown a trend of slight increases, while second-hand housing prices have been more volatile, with a recent short-term rebound [4][7]. - In July, new housing prices in Taiyuan decreased by 0.2% month-on-month but increased by 1.0% year-on-year, indicating a mixed market response [4][7]. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market in Taiyuan is characterized by a temporary rebound, but long-term price pressures remain significant due to a higher number of properties for sale compared to those being sold [6][7]. - The overall national real estate market is still in a deep adjustment phase, with many cities facing challenges in balancing supply and demand, leading to prolonged transaction cycles [8][9]. Policy Implications - The Chinese government is emphasizing the need for effective measures to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal initiatives and support for housing demand [9][10]. - Recent policy adjustments in major cities like Beijing are expected to be followed by similar measures in Shanghai and Shenzhen, indicating a potential shift towards more supportive housing policies [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policies to adapt and strengthen in response to short-term fluctuations in economic data, particularly focusing on stimulating consumption, increasing effective investment, and stabilizing employment to achieve annual economic and social development goals [3][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's economy maintained a steady growth rate of 5.3%, despite facing pressures from a complex international environment and extreme weather conditions in July [5]. - July's economic data showed a slowdown in key indicators, with retail sales growth at 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest rate for the year [6][10]. Group 2: Domestic Circulation - The State Council has repeatedly emphasized strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic move to ensure stable economic growth amid external uncertainties [6][10]. - The focus is on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing expectations [6][7]. Group 3: Consumption and Investment - The State Council meeting outlined measures to stimulate consumption, including removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector and fostering new growth points in service and new consumption [7][9]. - Investment remains crucial for stabilizing growth, with efforts to invigorate private investment and improve the policy environment for private enterprises [9][10]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The meeting highlighted the importance of consolidating the real estate market's recovery, with measures to promote urban renewal and improve housing conditions [11][12]. - Recent local policies have aimed to enhance market confidence and support the stabilization of the real estate sector, with various cities implementing new measures to boost housing demand [12][13]. Group 5: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is identified as a key focus for high-quality urban development, with expectations for accelerated policy implementation in the second half of the year [13][14]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development to better meet housing demands [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On August 18, the central bank conducted 2665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1545 billion yuan. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report continues the loose monetary policy idea, which has some support for short - term Treasury bond futures prices. However, the seesaw effect between bonds and equity and commodity markets will continue. Bond funds and household and corporate deposits may continue to flow to the non - banking sector with higher returns, suppressing bond market sentiment. Treasury bond futures prices may continue to weaken, and the price differentiation between new and old bonds and between short - and long - term bonds will intensify, and the inter - period and inter - variety spreads may also widen [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.26%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of the T2509 contract increased, while that of the T2512 contract decreased [2] - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to Treasury bond futures contracts was relatively high, indicating certain arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, yields of key - term Chinese Treasury bonds generally increased. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 4.75bp to 1.79%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 35.06bp [2] - **Overseas Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the 10Y Treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan increased by 1bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On August 18, the central bank carried out 2665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net investment was 1545 billion yuan after 1120 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted the bidding for the 2025 central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits (eighth issue), with a winning total of 1200 billion yuan and a winning rate of 1.78% [3] - **Policy Stance**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized improving the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and consolidating the stabilization of the real estate market [3] - **Market Supervision**: The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors launched a self - regulatory investigation into relevant institutions due to the misappropriation of debt financing tool funds by some issuing enterprises and the ineffective performance of supervision duties by relevant funds supervision banks [3] - **International Events**: The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference. Different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech. Trump met with Zelensky, and they discussed possible trilateral talks and US military participation in peace - keeping in Ukraine. India plans to reform the goods and services tax in response to Trump's tariff threat [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Movements**: On August 18, most money market interest rates increased. Yields of most US Treasury bonds rose [3] - **Market Situation**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield increased. The central bank's net investment, the rise of Shibor short - term varieties, the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds, and the inflow of funds into the non - banking sector led to a convergence of the money supply. The US economic data affected the expectations of interest rate cuts, and the domestic real estate market was still in adjustment, but the social financing stock growth rate continued to rise [3]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong real estate stocks saw an initial rise, with Midea Real Estate experiencing a notable increase of 15%, while other companies like Oceanwide Group, Sunac China, Longfor Group, Country Garden, and R&F Properties rose over 3% [1] - On August 18, Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote urban renewal, including the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses to release improvement demand [1] - Midea Real Estate announced a profit upgrade, expecting a profit attributable to shareholders from continuing operations to be between 250 million to 350 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to 140 million and 142 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Oceanwide Group's subsidiary, Beijing Oceanwide Holdings Group Co., Ltd., announced a domestic debt restructuring plan, with a creditor meeting scheduled from September 9 to September 12, involving 7 company bonds and 3 PPNs, totaling 18.05 billion yuan [1] - Country Garden announced that it is seeking strong support from creditors holding a significant amount of existing debt for its restructuring plan [1] - The stock performance of various real estate companies included Midea Real Estate at 5.120 yuan with an increase of 8.47%, Oceanwide Group at 0.121 yuan with a rise of 3.42%, and Longfor Group at 0.930 yuan with a gain of 3.33% [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, and rolled steel are rated as high-level fluctuations; glass and soda ash are rated as fluctuations [2]. - **Financial Industry**: CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as upward trends; SSE 50 is rated as a rebound; CSI 300 is rated as fluctuations; 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as fluctuations, with the 10 - year treasury bond showing a weakening trend; gold and silver are rated as high - level fluctuations [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as consolidation; logs are rated as range fluctuations; soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as fluctuating upward; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean No. 2 are rated as strongly fluctuating; soybean No. 1 is rated as weakly fluctuating [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as weakly fluctuating [8]. - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as fluctuations; PX is rated as on - hold; PTA is rated as fluctuations; MEG is rated as buy - on - dips; PR and PF are rated as on - hold [10]. 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions, with high - level fluctuations expected. Coal coke has limited short - term adjustment amplitudes, and it's recommended to buy after corrections. Rolled steel has supply reduction expectations, and short - term steel prices are supported by macro and policy factors. Glass has no obvious improvement in short - term supply - demand patterns, and long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Financial Industry**: The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and it's recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. Treasury bond prices are falling, and it's recommended to hold long positions lightly. Gold prices are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, affected by factors such as interest rate policies, tariff policies, and geopolitical conflicts [2][4]. - **Light Industry**: Pulp shows a supply - demand weak pattern and is expected to consolidate. Logs have limited supply pressure and are expected to range - fluctuate. Oils are expected to fluctuate upward, but attention should be paid to correction risks. Meal products are expected to strongly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to soybean weather and arrival conditions [6]. - **Agricultural Products**: The average trading weight of live pigs is expected to decline further, and prices are expected to weakly fluctuate due to increased supply and weak consumption [8]. - **Soft Commodities**: Natural rubber prices are expected to run strongly in the short term due to supply - side benefits. PX is in short supply in the short term, PTA prices follow cost fluctuations, MEG can be bought on dips, and PR and PF are expected to follow cost - side trends [10]. 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, global shipments have increased significantly, port inventories have slightly increased, terminal demand is weak, and high - level fluctuations are expected [2]. - **Coal Coke**: The exchange has adjusted trading limits, demand is weak, coal mine inventories are at a low level, and short - term adjustment amplitudes are limited [2]. - **Rolled Steel**: Tangshan's steel mill production - restriction policies are clear, supply reduction is expected, demand is weak, and high - level fluctuations are expected [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment has cooled, supply - demand patterns have not improved, inventories are increasing, and long - term demand is difficult to recover [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Indexes showed different trends last trading day, funds flowed in and out of different sectors, and it's recommended to hold long positions [2][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields are rising, the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, and it's recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Pricing mechanisms are changing, affected by multiple factors, and high - level fluctuations are expected [4]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stable, cost support is weakening, demand is in the off - season, and consolidation is expected [6]. - **Logs**: Port shipments are relatively stable, supply pressure is not large, inventories are decreasing, and cost support is increasing, with range fluctuations expected [6]. - **Oils**: Malaysian palm oil production and inventories are increasing, exports are strong, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and oils are expected to fluctuate upward [6]. - **Meal Products**: US soybean planting area has decreased, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and meal products are expected to strongly fluctuate [6]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Supply - side trading weights are declining, demand - side prices are falling, and prices are expected to weakly fluctuate [8]. Soft Commodities - **Natural Rubber**: Supply - side factors are improving, demand is relatively stable, inventories are decreasing, and prices are expected to run strongly [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX is in short supply in the short term, PTA prices follow cost fluctuations, MEG can be bought on dips, and PR and PF are expected to follow cost - side trends [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stimulating domestic demand through various measures, including urban renewal and housing renovation to release improvement demand [1] Group 1: Macro Policy Implementation - The government aims to improve the effectiveness of macro policy implementation and enhance the targeting and effectiveness of these policies [1] - There is a commitment to timely respond to market concerns and stabilize market expectations [1] Group 2: Domestic Circulation and Consumption - Emphasis is placed on strengthening domestic circulation to counteract uncertainties in international circulation [1] - The government plans to stimulate consumption potential by removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector and fostering new growth points in service and new consumption [1] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - There is a push to expand effective investment, particularly in major projects that can lead and drive economic growth [1] - The focus will be on adapting investments to meet changing demands, particularly in human resources and public services [1] Group 4: Real Estate Market Stabilization - Measures will be taken to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market and promote urban renewal, specifically targeting the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [1] - The approach is multi-faceted to effectively release improvement demand in the housing sector [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, and the daily melting volume is also stable. There is no expectation of water release or ignition of float production lines this week, and the output is expected to remain stable. The terminal demand for float glass is still weak, and the market price in East China has been continuously falling. Enterprises are forced to adjust prices to relieve the pressure of goods shipment. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in the near future, with the support level of the 01 contract at 1,190. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [2][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Market Review - The spot price of the domestic float glass market has declined, with an average price of 1,182 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.98 yuan/ton from the previous period. In different regions, the prices in North China, East China, and Central China have all faced downward pressure. The downstream mainly purchases for rigid demand [8] - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market and implement the transformation of urban villages and dilapidated houses. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries including building materials [8][9] 3.2 Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Supply - side Analysis - As of August 14, the average start - up rate of the float glass industry was 75.34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There is no expectation of water release or ignition of float production lines this week, and the output is expected to remain stable. The weekly average profits of float glass with different fuels have all decreased [11] 3.2.2 Demand - side Analysis - As of August 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The terminal demand for float glass is still weak. From January to July 2025, the cumulative real estate completion area decreased by 16.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.2%, and the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile and manufacturing industries [13][14] 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million heavy boxes and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period. The inventory in North China and East China has increased [16] 3.2.4 Position Analysis - As of August 15, the long positions of the top 20 members in the glass futures market decreased by 22,374 to 905,482, and the short positions increased by 42,304 to 1,210,393. The net position of the top 20 members is bearish [19] 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The float glass price is expected to fluctuate in the near future, with the support level of the 01 contract at 1,190. Short - term high - selling and low - buying is recommended, and attention should be paid to stop - loss. Later, focus should be placed on the start - up changes of float glass [21]

Core Viewpoint - The new housing transaction area has increased month-on-month, while the real estate financial system is being improved to stabilize the market [1][39]. Policy Aspect - The People's Bank of China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of maintaining liquidity and aligning social financing with economic growth [2][8]. - Local governments are introducing measures to facilitate housing fund withdrawals for down payments, such as in Tianjin and Zhengzhou [2][9]. Market Aspect - In the 33rd week of 2025, the transaction area of new homes in 68 cities was 1.68 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12% but a month-on-month increase of 4% [3][10]. - The transaction area of second-hand homes in 20 cities was 1.69 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 6% [23][20]. - Land transaction area in 100 major cities increased by 33% year-on-year, with a premium rate of 1.9% [26][32]. Investment Aspect - The land auction market in Shenzhen was active, with a plot sold for 8.64 billion yuan, achieving a premium rate of 34.81% [4][39]. - The total land area sold in first-tier cities increased by 100% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a slight decline [26][39]. Financing Aspect - The issuance of domestic credit bonds decreased significantly, with a total of 3.66 billion yuan issued, down 53% year-on-year and 81% month-on-month [5][32]. Weekly Market Review - The real estate index rose by 3.94% in the week, outperforming the broader market [36]. Investment Recommendation - The industry maintains a "positive" rating, anticipating further stabilization in the real estate market due to ongoing policy support [39][41].