Economic Growth and Policy Focus - The economic growth target for 2026 is set around 5%, emphasizing the shift towards domestic demand, particularly in the areas of livelihood and consumption[2][9]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a per capita GDP growth rate of approximately 4.4% annually, with a potential GDP growth rate of around 5% during this period[8]. Fiscal Policy and Budget - The general public budget deficit rate for 2026 is projected to be 4.2%, with a deficit scale of 6.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 520 billion yuan from 2025[3][15]. - In a more optimistic scenario, the deficit rate could rise to 4.5%, with a total deficit of 6.62 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase of 960 billion yuan[16]. Social Welfare and Consumer Support - Fiscal spending on child-rearing subsidies is expected to be between 100 billion to 120 billion yuan in 2026, alongside an expansion of free preschool education costing over 50 billion yuan[3][10]. - The increase in urban and rural residents' basic pensions is anticipated to exceed 1,000 billion yuan, with a minimum increase of 50 yuan per person[11]. Investment and Infrastructure - Effective investment will be expanded, focusing on urban renewal and basic public service construction, with an estimated 200 billion yuan allocated for urban renewal projects[4][28]. - The issuance of special bonds for equipment upgrades is expected to remain at 200 billion yuan, supporting the modernization of key industries[5][34]. Debt Management and Corporate Support - The issuance of special refinancing bonds is projected to reach 2 trillion yuan in 2026, aimed at alleviating debt pressure on local governments[35]. - The new local government special bond limit is expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, with 1.6 trillion yuan allocated for debt repayment and 2.9 trillion yuan for project construction, marking an increase of 1 trillion yuan from 2025[36].

Core Viewpoints - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period will achieve five transformations in macroeconomic growth models, supply-demand relationships, reform and opening up, risk prevention, and bottom-line thinking [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Transformations - The economic growth model will shift towards high-quality development, emphasizing innovation and modernization of industries [29]. - Supply-demand relationships will be rebalanced, focusing on expanding domestic demand and integrating investments in both physical and human capital [42]. - Comprehensive deepening of reform and opening up will be prioritized, with a focus on high-level external openness and attracting foreign investment [48][49]. - Risk prevention will adjust its focus, with traditional risks in real estate and local government debt converging, while external risks and price stability will be monitored [51][53]. - The concept of bottom-line thinking will be upgraded, emphasizing safety, livelihood, and financial stability [56]. Group 2: 2026 Economic Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be a year of transformation and upgrading, with a focus on boosting domestic demand and risk mitigation [2]. - Key highlights for 2026 include a gradual easing of tariff impacts, allowing exports to maintain resilience [58]. - Accelerated breakthroughs in technological innovation will drive industrial upgrades, enhancing overall productivity and corporate profitability [63]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumption will be strengthened, creating a more robust foundation for domestic demand [66]. - A moderate recovery in prices is anticipated, with CPI expected to rise above 0.5% and PPI narrowing its decline [69]. - The new infrastructure initiative will gain momentum, providing mid-term support for growth through significant project implementations [71].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [3][8]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry experienced a slight revenue increase of 0.17% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, but the net profit attributable to shareholders declined by 4.58% [3][15]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in both revenue and profit, with revenues dropping by 4.75% year-on-year and net profits decreasing by 14.61% [3][15]. - The report highlights that the macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to lead to a recovery in performance and valuation for the food and beverage sector [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector's overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 8309.16 billion, with a net profit of CNY 1711.64 billion [3][15]. - The third quarter alone generated revenue of CNY 2500.62 billion, with a net profit of CNY 434.96 billion [3][15]. 2. Subsector Performance 2.1 Baijiu (Chinese liquor) - The baijiu sector faced significant pressure, with revenues and net profits declining in the third quarter of 2025 [24]. - Major brands like Moutai and Fenjiu performed relatively well despite the overall downturn [24]. - The report notes a 20%-30% decline in sales during traditional festive periods, with regional variations in performance [24]. 2.2 Beer - The beer sector maintained steady demand, achieving a revenue of CNY 620.52 billion in the first three quarters, up 2.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 94.84 billion, up 11.82% [29]. - The third quarter saw revenues of CNY 203.20 billion, with a net profit increase of 11.30% [29]. 2.3 Snacks - The snack sector showed positive growth, with revenues and net profits increasing in the third quarter [3][29]. 2.4 Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector experienced a strong performance, particularly in the third quarter, with leading companies showing significant growth [3][29]. 2.5 Dairy Products - The dairy sector continued to face demand challenges, but there were signs of marginal improvement as raw milk prices stabilized [4][29]. 2.6 Condiments - The condiment sector is undergoing intense competition, but leading companies are outperforming the overall market [4][29]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient companies with strong growth potential, such as Dongpeng Beverage, Yili, and Moutai, among others [8][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption in driving economic growth in China, particularly during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting the need for policies to boost consumer spending and enhance residents' consumption capacity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - China's final consumption rate has been stable above 50% from 2013 to 2024, with a projected increase from 51.9% in 2013 to 56.6% in 2024 [2]. - The average annual economic growth rate from 2013 to 2024 is 6.1%, with domestic demand contributing 93.1% to this growth, and final consumption accounting for 55% of the economic growth [2]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The "15th Five-Year Plan" suggests enhancing consumer capacity through measures such as increasing employment, raising income levels, and improving public service spending [1][3]. - Specific strategies include optimizing the consumption environment, reducing restrictions, and promoting service consumption through innovative scenarios [6][7]. Group 3: Income and Employment - Increasing residents' income is crucial for boosting consumption, with a focus on improving the distribution of national income and enhancing labor remuneration [3][4]. - Addressing structural employment issues and providing better social security for new employment forms are essential for improving consumer confidence [4][8]. Group 4: Consumption Trends - Current consumption rates in China are lower than those in developed countries, with a final consumption rate of around 56%, compared to 81% in the U.S. and 75% in Japan [7]. - The article suggests that achieving a consumption rate increase to over 60% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" will require extraordinary policy measures and a focus on income subsidies for low-income groups [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical year for consolidating economic recovery and achieving high-quality development, highlighting the need for a balance between short-term growth and long-term sustainable development [4][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which aims to ensure significant progress in achieving socialist modernization [4]. - The current economic environment is characterized by strong resilience, potential, and vitality, despite facing complex external challenges and domestic issues such as insufficient effective demand and weak social expectations [4]. Group 2: Policy Focus - The article calls for a focus on macro policy frameworks that promote long-term and short-term coordination, effective financial services for the real economy, and strategies to drive growth through expanded domestic demand [5]. - It outlines the necessity of addressing key questions regarding the dynamic balance between short-term stability and long-term high-quality development during the initial phase of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4]. Group 3: Call for Contributions - The editorial team of "Tsinghua Financial Review" is inviting submissions on various topics related to the "15th Five-Year Plan," aiming to gather insights from regulatory authorities, financial institutions, and industry experts [5]. - The submission topics include mechanisms for macro policy coordination, the effectiveness of moderately loose monetary policy, and the financial support system for new productive forces [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board indices have experienced declines, with the Sci-Tech Growth Index down by 1%, the Sci-Tech 50 Index down by 1.1%, and both the Sci-Tech 100 Index and the Sci-Tech Composite Index down by 1.2% as of midday [1] - Wind data shows that the Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588080) has seen a net inflow of 250 million yuan over the last three trading days, suggesting investor interest despite the overall index decline [1] - According to Xinda Securities, the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the priority of building a modern industrial system, with a focus on technological innovation and new productivity, which may catalyze a shift from market fluctuations to an upward trend in indices [1] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Composite Index ETF tracks the comprehensive index of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, covering all market securities and focusing on core industries such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6] - The Sci-Tech Growth 50 ETF tracks the growth index of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, consisting of 50 stocks with high growth rates in operating income and net profit, highlighting a strong growth style [6]

消费需求要实现上台阶式的增长，其GDP占比要提高到60％~65％，消费年增速达到6%以上。 解决中国总需求不足问题的关键是消费必须挑起大梁。"十五五"期间，消费需求要实现上台阶式的增 长，其GDP占比要从现在的56％提高到60％~65％，消费年增速应达到6%以上。 虽然6％的年消费增速和60%以上的消费占比只是一个合理的政策目标，但要实现这一目标，必须要有 超常规的政策手段或深化改革措施，如万亿级收入补贴、十万亿级的国有股权划转社保，以及百万亿级 的资本市场增值，甚至考虑零利率、负利率政策。 消费需求扩张的空间很大。当前中国最终消费率为56％，低于美国81％、日本75％和欧盟74％的水平； 居民消费率仅为40％左右，不仅低于美国（68％）、日本（55％）、欧盟（52％），也低于全球平均水 平（55％）。"十五五"期间，如果消费率尤其是居民消费率能够上一个台阶，就能够明显缓解总需求不 足之困，有效打开中国经济的增长空间，这也是"十五五"规划建议提出"居民消费率明显提高"的根本原 因。 怎样才能算实现上台阶式的增长？我们认为，"十五五"期间最终消费率要从56.6％（2024年）提升至 60％以上，居民消费率要从4 ...

消费是经济的压舱石、主引擎。 党的二十届四中全会明确指出，坚持扩大内需这个战略基点。 中国银行业协会数据显示，截至2020年年末，消金公司资产规模首次突破5000亿元，而这一数据到2024 年末已经扩大至13848.59亿元，为8543万人次县域客户提供普惠金融服务，并通过减免利息、延期还款 等方式切实纾困解难。 中银消金相关负责人表示，未来将紧紧围绕扩大内需有关部署，根据民生领域消费需求，优化产品与服 务，提供更加普惠便捷的消费信贷支持，有效降低消费门槛，激发消费潜能。 中邮消金表示，将进一步深化乡村金融服务，通过接入多维度涉农数据，与专业机构创新"三方合作"模 式，将信贷服务有效渗透至农村电商、农产品加工等领域，为乡村振兴注入源源不断的金融动力。 马上消费相关负责人表示，未来将推动普惠金融与生活消费、生产经营、教育培训、医疗健康等多类场 景深度融合，使群众能够切身感受到金融服务无处不在，实现金融服务"零距离"。 值得注意的是，为了让消费金融服务范围扩大，消金公司已经展开了行动。 例如，马上消费将服务重心下沉，重点关注农民、小微企业主、个体工商户、新市民等群体，推出更有 针对性的金融产品与服务模式。同时，通 ...

Core Insights - The service consumption market in China is expanding steadily, with a projected annual growth rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Importance of Expanding Service Consumption - Service consumption is crucial for improving livelihoods and represents a significant direction for consumption transformation and upgrading [2][3] - The shift from goods to service consumption is evident, with service consumption emphasizing emotional and experiential satisfaction, which supports continuous upgrades and repeat purchases [2][3] - By 2024, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure is expected to reach 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure, indicating a growing role of service consumption in driving economic growth [2][3] Group 2: Employment and Quality of Life - Expanding service consumption is essential for stabilizing employment and improving living standards, as the service sector is labor-intensive and can create numerous job opportunities [3][4] - The growth in service consumption reflects a shift from material to spiritual consumption, enhancing overall well-being and quality of life for residents [3][4] - The number of domestic tourists is projected to increase from 3.262 billion in 2013 to 5.615 billion by 2024, showcasing the booming tourism market and its potential for consumption [3][4] Group 3: Economic Foundations for Service Consumption - China's stable economic growth provides a solid foundation for expanding service consumption, with the service sector becoming the largest industry in the national economy [4][5] - By 2024, the service sector's contribution to GDP is expected to reach 56.7%, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed countries where this figure is typically between 70% and 80% [4][5] - Rising income levels, with per capita GDP projected to reach 95,749 yuan in 2024, will further drive service consumption growth [4][5] Group 4: Demographic Changes and Market Potential - By the end of 2024, China's population is expected to reach 1.408 billion, with a notable increase in the elderly population, creating new demands for services such as home care and health management [5][6] - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024, providing additional opportunities for service consumption growth as more rural residents transition to urban living [5][6] Group 5: Policy Measures and Support for Service Consumption - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the expansion of service consumption, including the issuance of guidelines for high-quality service consumption development [6][7] - Recent measures include optimizing service supply and enhancing consumer capacity through targeted policies and local initiatives [6][7] Group 6: Digital Services and New Consumption Trends - The digital economy is transforming service consumption, with digital technologies driving innovation in service delivery and creating new consumption scenarios [11][12] - By 2024, the scale of digital consumption is expected to reach 23.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 44.2% of total consumption [11][12] - The emergence of new consumer groups with a preference for personalized and experiential services is further stimulating the growth of digital service consumption [12][13] Group 7: Financial Support for Service Consumption - Financial institutions are increasingly focusing on supporting service consumption through tailored financial products and services [17][18] - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan fund to guide financial institutions in increasing credit to key service sectors [18][19] - The introduction of consumer finance services has been shown to significantly boost consumer spending, with estimates indicating a 16% to 30% increase in spending among borrowers [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the three main policy lines of the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on high-quality development, improved living standards, and enhanced national security [2]. Group 1: Development - Significant achievements in high-quality development have been made, with a marked increase in the level of technological self-reliance [2]. - The construction of a modern industrial system is emphasized, aiming to strengthen the foundation of the real economy [2]. - There is a push for high-level technological self-reliance and the cultivation of new productive forces [3]. Group 2: Livelihood - Continuous improvement in the quality of life for the people is a key goal, with efforts to promote common prosperity for all [2]. - The article highlights the importance of enhancing and improving living standards through various initiatives [2]. Group 3: Security - National defense is reinforced as a strategic support, with a focus on building ecological security barriers [7]. - The article discusses the modernization of the national security system and capabilities, aiming for a higher level of safety in the country [7].