Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 4000-point mark for the first time in ten years, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment from bearish to optimistic [2] - This milestone is seen as a new benchmark for assessing the maturity of China's capital markets, coinciding with reforms such as the comprehensive implementation of the registration system and the continuous optimization of foreign investment access [2] Economic Impact - The ongoing rise in the A-share market is facilitating a valuation recovery, creating a favorable environment for corporate financing through IPOs and refinancing, particularly benefiting technology and innovation-driven enterprises [3] - The wealth effect generated by the A-share market is expected to boost consumer confidence, contributing to a positive cycle of market growth, wealth generation, and economic recovery, impacting approximately 220 million individual investors and 759 million mutual fund investors [3][4] Financial Stability - The recovery in stock prices has significantly reduced the risk of margin calls for companies with pledged shares, while the assets held by qualified foreign institutional investors in the domestic market have exceeded 1 trillion yuan, enhancing market resilience [4] Social Implications - A healthy capital market is viewed as a catalyst for economic transformation and innovation, positively influencing residents' financial income and pension fund growth, which is crucial for the quality of life in retirement [5] - The stock market's performance directly affects the wealth status of millions of families, with the number of A-share investors exceeding 240 million [5] Structural Changes - Over the past decade, the A-share market has undergone a fundamental transformation in its industrial structure, with a notable shift towards technology-driven companies like CATL and BYD, reflecting a resurgence of confidence in the Chinese economy [8] - The proportion of institutional investors in the A-share market has increased significantly, with institutional holdings accounting for 46% of the free-float market capitalization by the end of 2024, compared to 30.9% in 2014 [9] Market Logic - The recent breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index at 4000 points is accompanied by a historical shift in the underlying logic of China's capital markets, moving from speculative trading to value-driven investment [10][11] - The market is transitioning from a "bull-bear" cycle to a "deep cultivation" paradigm, supported by reforms such as the comprehensive registration system and improved delisting mechanisms [10] Future Outlook - The current market valuation is more rational compared to previous peaks, with the overall market PE ratio at 17.91, significantly lower than the ratios during the previous 4000-point milestones [12] - Future reforms are expected to focus on enhancing the institutional framework, facilitating long-term capital inflows, and expanding product offerings to meet diverse investor needs [13]

Group 1 - The market confidence has been positively impacted since mid-October, with policy support boosting the technology sector's performance and trading activity recovering [1] - The capital market is expected to deepen reforms, focusing on serving the real economy and promoting technological innovation, which will enhance market resilience and improve liquidity [1] - Despite a recent adjustment in the A-share market, the "slow bull" trend continues, with sufficient trading volume and positive developments from the China-US talks [1][1] Group 2 - On October 30, the A-share market experienced a decline, with the technology sector underperforming while lithium battery and shipping sectors rose [1] - The market environment is expected to remain favorable, with short-term disturbances subsiding and the A-share index likely to continue its upward trend [1] - Supportive factors for the fourth quarter include "anti-involution" policies, increased household savings entering the market, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and technical reversals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development as the primary goal, shifting focus from rapid economic growth to enhancing the quality of economic development [2][3]. Economic Development Goals - The plan does not set specific GDP growth targets but aims for an average annual GDP growth rate of 4.5% to 5.0% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, ensuring a balance between growth, structural adjustment, and risk prevention [3]. - The plan highlights a significant increase in the resident consumption rate, indicating a shift from investment-driven growth to consumption-led growth [3][4]. Capital Market Development - The plan calls for a well-functioning capital market that supports innovation-driven development, emphasizing reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to provide better financing for "hard tech" companies [5][6]. - It aims to balance direct and indirect financing, enhancing the financing structure to better serve small and innovative enterprises [6][7]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The plan stresses the importance of active fiscal policy to enhance sustainability and support long-term investments while balancing efficiency and equity [9][10]. - Monetary policy will maintain a moderately loose stance, focusing on effective transmission mechanisms and structural tools to support key sectors [11][12]. Digital Economy and Innovation - The plan promotes the construction of a digital economy, emphasizing the development of data markets and the integration of artificial intelligence into various sectors [13][14]. - It aims to address challenges in data resource sharing, algorithm development, and privacy protection to enhance the value of data and accelerate AI development [14][15]. Social Security and Insurance - The plan proposes a multi-tiered pension system and emphasizes the role of commercial insurance in providing supplementary coverage [16][17]. - It introduces long-term care insurance to address the needs of the aging population, aiming to build a comprehensive care system [17].

Core Insights - The 10th China Pharmaceutical Innovation and Investment Conference was successfully held in Nanjing from October 26 to 27, highlighting discussions on pharmaceutical R&D achievements and investment trends in the industry [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) plays a crucial role in supporting the globalization of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies through its efficient and diverse international financing platform [1] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong has seen significant IPO activity this year, ranking first globally in terms of fundraising in the new stock market [1] - As of now, Hong Kong has completed 12 biotech IPOs, raising a total of $1.3 billion, which positions it as the leading market for biotech fundraising globally [1] Group 2: Financing Trends - The biotech sector has experienced active refinancing transactions, with a total refinancing amount reaching $4.1 billion year-to-date, indicating a gradual recovery in market confidence [2] - The positive performance in the healthcare financing market is attributed to the continuous optimization of regulatory frameworks, the listing of high-quality innovative companies, and active investor participation [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the ongoing reform in the capital market and the positive long-term outlook for the securities industry, suggesting that top-tier brokerages with strong investment banking and brokerage capabilities should be closely monitored [1] Group 2 - The multi-level market system is becoming more inclusive and comprehensive, benefiting investment banking operations. The chairman mentioned that the first batch of newly registered companies will be listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and reforms for the Growth Enterprise Market will be implemented to better align with the characteristics of emerging industries [2] - The IPO pace has shown signs of marginal recovery, with 78 IPOs and a fundraising scale of 77.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13% and 61% respectively. Additionally, the fundraising from refinancing reached 818.9 billion yuan, a 424% increase year-on-year, marking a near five-year high [2] Group 3 - Measures to enhance the quality of listed companies and investor returns were highlighted, including promoting industry consolidation and improving corporate governance. The new guidelines for protecting small and medium investors are expected to enhance the attractiveness of the equity market [3] - The total market value of various long-term funds holding A-shares was approximately 21.4 trillion yuan as of the end of August 2025, indicating that long-term investments can help cultivate market resilience [3] - The optimization of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor system is expected to attract more incremental capital by improving access management and expanding investment scope [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trends of various futures on October 30, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong, weak, or sideways - moving state, and gives corresponding resistance and support levels [2][3]. - The report also provides the trading performance of various futures on October 29, 2025, and the expected trends for the entire month of October 2025 [13][37][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 30, 2025, it is expected to move sideways. IF2512 has resistance at 4750 and 4780 points, and support at 4719 and 4700 points; IH2512 has resistance at 3080 and 3090 points, and support at 3058 and 3045 points; IC2512 has resistance at 7470 and 7500 points, and support at 7350 and 7300 points; IM2512 has resistance at 7519 and 7550 points, and support at 7416 and 7365 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 is likely to move strongly, with resistance at 108.70 and 108.85 yuan, and support at 108.43 and 108.31 yuan; the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 is likely to move in a wide - range, with resistance at 116.5 and 116.8 yuan, and support at 115.6 and 115.4 yuan [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2512 is likely to move weakly, with support at 910.0 and 900.4 yuan/gram, and resistance at 923.6 and 928.6 yuan/gram; the silver futures contract AG2512 is likely to move weakly, with support at 11210 and 11100 yuan/kg, and resistance at 11483 and 11575 yuan/kg [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the copper futures contract CU2512 is likely to move strongly, will attack the resistance at 89500 and 90000 yuan/ton, and support at 88300 and 87800 yuan/ton, and may hit a new high since listing; the aluminum futures contract AL2512 is likely to move strongly, with resistance at 21370 and 21480 yuan/ton, and support at 21220 and 21200 yuan/ton; the alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to move weakly, will test the support at 2836 and 2814 yuan/ton, and resistance at 2886 and 2898 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 is likely to move sideways, with resistance at 83800 and 85700 yuan/ton, and support at 82200 and 81700 yuan/ton; the rebar futures contract RB2601 is likely to move sideways, with resistance at 3150 and 3167 yuan/ton, and support at 3111 and 3090 yuan/ton; the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2601 is likely to move sideways, with resistance at 3355 and 3375 yuan/ton, and support at 3333 and 3306 yuan/ton; the iron ore futures contract I2601 is likely to move in a wide - range, with resistance at 809 and 815 yuan/ton, and support at 803 and 800 yuan/ton; the coking coal futures contract JM2601 is likely to move in a wide - range, with resistance at 1313 and 1328 yuan/ton, and support at 1277 and 1263 yuan/ton; the glass futures contract FG601 is likely to move weakly, will test the support at 1091 and 1072 yuan/ton, and resistance at 1127 and 1137 yuan/ton; the soda ash futures contract SA601 is likely to move weakly, will test the support at 1239 and 1224 yuan/ton, and resistance at 1260 and 1273 yuan/ton; the crude oil futures contract SC2512 is likely to move strongly, will attack the resistance at 467 and 471 yuan/barrel, and support at 458 and 455 yuan/barrel; the PTA futures contract TA601 is likely to move sideways, with resistance at 4678 and 4700 yuan/ton, and support at 4614 and 4590 yuan/ton; the PVC futures contract V2601 is likely to move strongly, with resistance at 4819 and 4861 yuan/ton, and support at 4757 and 4746 yuan/ton; the soybean meal futures contract M2601 is likely to move strongly, will attack the resistance at 2997 and 3020 yuan/ton, and support at 2965 and 2957 yuan/ton; the natural rubber futures contract RU2601 is likely to move weakly, with support at 15340 and 15210 yuan/ton, and resistance at 15630 and 15760 yuan/ton [3][4][5][7]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - Diplomatic news includes a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30, 2025, and China's response to soybean purchases from the US [8]. - Domestic economic policies involve further deepening of capital market reform, opening up of the financial sector, 9 policies for cross - border trade facilitation, and the "Urban Business Quality Improvement Action Plan" [8]. - Domestic economic data shows that in the first 9 months of this year, state - owned enterprises' total operating income was 61.33 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; total profit was 3.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; as of the end of September, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.2 percentage points; as of the end of September, the number of participants in basic old - age, unemployment, and work - related injury insurance nationwide was 1074 million, 248 million, and 304 million respectively, and the cumulative balance of the three social insurance funds was 9.85 trillion yuan [8][9]. - International economic news includes the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, the end of balance - sheet reduction from December 1, the Bank of Canada's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, and France's increase in the digital tax rate on tech companies [9][10]. Commodity Futures - related Information - On October 29, 2025, international precious metal futures generally closed down, COMEX gold futures fell 1.04% to 3941.7 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 0.1% to 47.275 US dollars/ounce; US crude oil futures rose, with the main contract up 0.35% to 60.36 US dollars/barrel, Brent crude oil futures rose 0.64% to 64.24 US dollars/barrel; London base metals showed mixed results [11][12]. - Over the past four years, gold has become the main savings method for Russian people, and it is expected that Russia's retail gold purchases will reach 62.2 tons this year; since the Russia - Ukraine conflict, Russian people have accumulated 282 tons of gold purchases [13]. - On October 29, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0991 at 16:30, up 15 basis points from the previous trading day, hitting a new high in nearly a year; the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell 9 basis points to 7.0968; the US dollar index rose 0.43% to 99.16, and most non - US currencies fell [13]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the CSI 300 stock index futures contract IF2512 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, and closed at 4732.6 points, up 1.23%; the SSE 50 stock index futures contract IH2512 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose slightly, and closed at 3064.8 points, up 0.39%; the CSI 500 stock index futures contract IC2512 opened slightly higher, moved strongly upwards, and closed at 7390.0 points, up 2.12%; the CSI 1000 stock index futures contract IM2512 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, and closed at 7446.4 points, up 1.42%. The A - share market performed well on this day, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points [13][14][15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 opened slightly lower, rose then fell back, and closed at 108.570 yuan, up 0.13%; the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 opened slightly lower, rebounded then fell back, and closed at 115.83 yuan, down 0.27% [37][41]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2512 opened slightly lower, moved upwards in a volatile manner, and closed at 910.88 yuan/gram, down 0.55%; the silver futures contract AG2512 opened slightly lower, moved strongly upwards, and closed at 11338 yuan/kg, up 1.91% [43][50]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the copper futures contract CU2512 opened slightly higher, rose then fell back, moved strongly upwards, and closed at 88710 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the aluminum futures contract AL2512 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 21295 yuan/ton, up 0.35%; the alumina futures contract AO2601 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 2879 yuan/ton, up 1.41% [54][59][64]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: On October 29, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 82900 yuan/ton, up 0.80%; the rebar futures contract RB2601 opened slightly higher, rose then fell back, and closed at 3133 yuan/ton, up 1.00%; the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2601 opened flat, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 3345 yuan/ton, up 1.21%; the iron ore futures contract I2601 opened slightly higher, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1.96%; the coking coal futures contract JM2601 opened flat, rose then fell back, moved sharply upwards, and closed at 1302.0 yuan/ton, up 3.50%; the glass futures contract FG601 opened flat, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 1127 yuan/ton, up 1.62%; the soda ash futures contract SA601 opened slightly lower, first declined then rose, and closed at 1259 yuan/ton, up 1.12%; the crude oil futures contract SC2512 opened slightly lower, first declined then rose, rebounded then fell back, and closed at 462.6 yuan/barrel, down 0.81%; the PTA futures contract TA601 opened slightly lower, first declined then rose, and closed at 4636 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; the PVC futures contract V2601 opened slightly lower, rose then fell back, and closed at 4775 yuan/ton, up 1.02%; the soybean meal futures contract M2601 opened flat, rebounded then fell back, and closed at 2969 yuan/ton, up 0.10%; the natural rubber futures contract RU2601 opened slightly lower, first declined then rose, rose then fell back, and closed at 15625 yuan/ton, up 1.56% [68][72][77][79][85][91][95][99][104][105][108][110].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need to analyze and respond to the current economic situation in the city, highlighting a positive economic recovery trend in 2023, with expectations for continued growth and resilience [2][3]. Economic Performance - The city's economy has shown a steady recovery, with the first three quarters of 2023 performing better than expected, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality [2]. - The focus is on maintaining a clear understanding of the economic landscape and seizing opportunities to enhance development confidence and strategic determination [2]. Policy Implementation - There is a call to enhance the scientific and precise management of economic operations, aiming to achieve the goals for the year and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - The government plans to utilize a combination of policies to maximize the effects of initiatives aimed at key growth areas, while also adapting policies dynamically to new situations [3]. Industry Development - Emphasis on transforming and upgrading key industries, particularly in cultural tourism and sports, to foster multi-industry collaboration and promote the "event economy" [3]. - Support for enterprises to expand internationally and optimize their overseas presence is a priority, alongside enhancing the competitiveness of the leasing and business service sectors [3]. Reform and Growth - The meeting highlighted the importance of leveraging the benefits of reform and opening up to create new growth points, particularly in capital market reforms to support "hard tech" companies [3]. - There is a focus on accelerating offshore financial development and replicating successful reform measures to enhance development momentum [3].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasized the need to enhance the scientific and precise management of economic operations, aiming to successfully conclude the year and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][3]. Economic Performance - The city's economy has shown a continuous recovery this year, with the first three quarters demonstrating stable progress and better-than-expected performance, reflecting strong resilience and vitality [2]. Strategic Focus - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a clear mindset, seizing the time window, and striving to be proactive and competitive, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2][3]. Policy Implementation - There is a call to effectively utilize policy combinations to amplify the effects of initiatives, explore growth potential in key areas, and accelerate the formation of tangible work outputs [3]. Industry Development - The meeting stressed the need to promote the transformation and upgrading of key industries, enhance the integration of culture, tourism, commerce, and sports, and develop the "event economy" [3]. Market Expansion - Emphasis was placed on leveraging comparative advantages to explore diversified markets and support enterprises in optimizing their overseas layouts [3]. Reform and Innovation - The meeting underscored the importance of releasing the dividends of reform and opening up, creating new growth points, and supporting "hard tech" companies in utilizing capital markets for accelerated growth [3]. Future Planning - There is a focus on preparing for the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming year, with a call for determination and effort to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [3].

Investment Rating - The non-bank financial industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven high-quality financial development and accelerating the construction of a financial powerhouse. It highlights the need for financial services to focus on the real economy and improve the precision and effectiveness of financial support for key industries [3][4] - The report indicates that the capital market reforms are being clarified by regulatory authorities, aiming to enhance the resilience and risk resistance of the capital market while fostering high-quality listed companies [4][24] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report advocates for the implementation of the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, focusing on high-quality financial development and the construction of a financial powerhouse. It stresses the importance of risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development [8][24] 2. Market Review - During the period from October 20 to October 24, major indices saw an overall increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.88%, the CSI 300 by 3.24%, and the ChiNext Index by 8.05%. The average daily trading volume in A-shares was 1.80 trillion yuan, a decrease of 18.04% compared to the previous period [5][10] 3. Key Industry Data Tracking - As of October 24, the margin trading balance was 2.46 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.14% increase. The market's pledged shares amounted to 2,977.27 billion shares, accounting for 3.64% of the total share capital [14][18] - In September 2025, the equity underwriting scale reached 436.85 billion yuan, with IPO amounts at 116.90 billion yuan and refinancing amounts at 319.95 billion yuan [14] 4. Regulatory Policies and Industry Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need to enhance the resilience and risk resistance of the capital market, improve the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems, and strengthen regulatory enforcement effectiveness [24] - The People's Bank of China highlighted the importance of maintaining stability in financial markets, including the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, while enhancing the financial system's ability to serve the real economy [24]

Core Viewpoint - China is committed to deepening capital market reforms and expanding high-level financial openness to support modernization, welcoming foreign financial institutions and long-term capital investments [3]. Group 1 - He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, emphasized the implementation of the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [3]. - The International Advisory Committee of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) expressed appreciation for the achievements in China's capital market reforms and openness in recent years [3]. - The committee members are optimistic about the future of China's economy and capital market, indicating a willingness to deepen investment cooperation in China [3].