Group 1 - China's GDP reached 34,177.8 billion yuan in the second quarter of this year [1] - The national power load in China broke a historical high, exceeding 1.5 billion kilowatts for the first time on the 16th [1] - The volume of postal and express delivery services in China surpassed 100 billion items in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - Eight Taiwanese entities have been added to the export control list for dual-use items [1] - China and Australia signed a memorandum of understanding to implement and review the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement [1] - The third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo opened on the 16th [1]

Government Debt - US debt to GDP ratio is approximately 121%, with about 36 trillion USD of debt and a GDP of about 30 trillion USD [1] - US debt to GDP ratio is among the highest, second only to Japan's 240% [2] - US national debt is considered a significant problem for the market's future [3] - The debt to GDP ratio has doubled since the 1990s, when it was around 60-66% [3] Gold and Silver Ratio - The current gold to silver ratio is about 91, while historically it averages around 60 [3][4] - Gold prices have increased by approximately 30% this year [5] US Dollar and Platinum - The US dollar has declined by about 12% in the first six months of the year, marking one of the biggest declines since 1973 [5] - Platinum prices are currently less than half the price of gold, despite recent increases [6] - Platinum may be an option for diversifying out of stocks or other assets [6]

there's a sense, okay, we had the initial reaction, now we've kind of recovered, maybe people were overreacting and they we shouldn't take this threat too seriously. How does it fit in with everything else that's going on here. Yeah, I think we could look at the tariffs and the market's reaction uh as a bogey here, which is it went from, oh my god, where this is heading to until something becomes law and it's implemented, let's count it as noise, right.And uh the important thing here is that it's clear that ...

Economic Performance - Q2 2025 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, showing resilience, supported by export growth offsetting construction sector decline[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate was 1.3% lower than the real GDP growth, indicating price level adjustments are needed[4] Industrial and Service Sector Insights - Industrial added value in June increased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.8% year-on-year, with modern service sectors showing stability[5] - The service sector's production growth was steady, with information technology services rising for five consecutive months[5] Consumer Behavior - Disposable income growth slowed to 5.4%, with operational net income being a significant drag[5] - The consumer spending rate in Q2 was 68.6%, better than the same period in 2022-2024 but still below pre-pandemic levels[5] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in June fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.8%, with the "trade-in" program's contribution declining[6] - By June, the progress of the "trade-in" program reached approximately 54%, with expectations for further consumer stimulus policies in the second half of 2025[6] Investment and Construction - Fixed asset investment growth slowed, with real estate investment down by 11.2% year-on-year in June[7] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 7.5%, influenced by tariff disruptions and "anti-involution" measures[7] Future Economic Outlook - The first half of 2025 exceeded GDP targets with a 5.3% growth, but Q4 may face downward pressure due to weakening investment and consumption trends[8] - The potential fading of export support and challenges in the real estate market could impact future growth rates[8] Risk Factors - Risks include potential policy changes that may not meet expectations and the possibility of an unexpected downturn in the U.S. economy[9]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - China's H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, a 5.3% YoY increase. Q1 GDP rose 5.4% YoY, and Q2 grew 5.2%. H1 fixed - asset investment increased 2.8%, with real - estate development investment down 11.2%. In June, industrial added - value of large - scale enterprises rose 6.8% YoY, and retail sales of consumer goods increased 4.8% [3] - In June, according to 70 - city housing price data, housing prices in all tiers declined MoM, with the YoY decline narrowing. 14 cities saw new - home prices rise MoM, led by Shanghai and Changsha with a 0.4% increase. Only Xining's second - hand home prices rose MoM [3] - The EU Foreign Affairs Council failed to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia due to opposition from Malta and Slovakia. The sanctions target Russia's energy revenue [3] - China adjusted the catalog of technologies prohibited or restricted for export, deleting 3 items, adding 1, and modifying 1. The newly restricted export technology is battery cathode material preparation technology [3] - US CPI in June rose 2.7% YoY, the highest since February, meeting market expectations. Core CPI rose 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both below expectations. Traders predict the Fed will start cutting rates in September, with nearly two cuts by the end of the year [4] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, PVC, hot - rolled coil, and soybean oil [5] 3. Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials 2.88%, precious metals 28.77%, oilseeds and oils 12.23%, non - ferrous metals 2.80%, soft commodities 18.96%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.40%, energy 3.27%, chemicals 12.70%, grains 1.23%, agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [5] 4. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.42 | 1.76 | 4.57 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.38 | 1.30 | 2.33 | | | CSI 300 | 0.03 | 2.11 | 2.14 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.03 | 1.75 | 5.12 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.40 | 0.63 | 6.16 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.60 | 2.15 | 22.58 | | | German DAX | - 0.42 | 0.63 | 20.85 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.55 | - 2.00 | - 0.54 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.66 | 2.02 | 9.36 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.18 | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.13 | - 0.13 | - 0.48 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | 0.04 | - 0.08 | - 0.54 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.23 | 1.82 | 2.02 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.39 | 2.65 | - 7.23 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.59 | 0.64 | 26.64 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 2.37 | 9.82 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.17 | 1.86 | 15.92 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.53 | 1.92 | - 9.08 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 2.81 | - 0.86 | [8]

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - The closing prices and changes of various interest rate varieties are presented, such as DR001 closing at 1.53% with a 10.6bp increase, and DR007 closing at 1.57% with a 3.36bp increase [3]. - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 690 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1735 billion yuan. Also, it will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on July 15 [3]. - This week, there are 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market. Recently, liquidity has slightly tightened, with the overnight inter - bank pledged repo weighted average rate rising 10.6bp to 1.53% and the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate rising 3.36bp to 1.4957% [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Performance - The closing prices and daily changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts are provided. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4019 with a 0.03% increase, and the IF current - month contract closed at 4010 with no change [4]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures contracts have significant changes. For instance, the IF trading volume increased by 55.3% to 124297, and the open interest increased by 1.5% to 267331 [4]. - Yesterday, the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 16121 billion yuan, an increase of 1533 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down, with the Internet service sector rising [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The supply side remained strong with a 6.8% year - on - year increase in industrial added value in June, while the demand side weakened, with real estate investment from January to June falling to - 11.2% and the consumer growth rate in June dropping to 4.8% [5]. - After the economic data was released, the stock index initially weakened but then showed a "V" - shaped trend. Recently, the stock index has been less sensitive to negative news, and the market trading volume and sentiment have remained strong. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are presented, including the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities. In the financial sector, factors such as inflation data, trade agreements, and central bank policies influence the performance of assets like gold, the US dollar, and stocks. In the commodity sector, supply - demand dynamics, production data, and policy changes impact prices of metals, energy, and agricultural products. Overall, different assets are expected to have diverse trends such as some being in a short - term upward movement, some in a downward trend, and others in a state of oscillation [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Nvidia is applying to resell H20 GPUs, and the US government assures to grant the license. US CPI rebounded in June, with inflation data influencing gold prices. Gold is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump reached a trade deal with Indonesia, lowering the tariff rate to 19%. US CPI data in June was in line with expectations, with inflation rising and the US dollar index expected to continue rising in the short term [15][16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Central Urban Work Conference was held, emphasizing the transformation of urban development. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [18][19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia, and US core CPI in June rose 2.9% year - on - year. The impact of tariffs is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to control positions carefully [21][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. China's Q2 GDP growth was 5.2%, higher than expected. The bond market is expected to turn stronger gradually in the coming months [25][27]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 15, the price difference between imported and domestic steam coal was presented. Due to high - temperature weather, coal prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [30]. 2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto's Q2 iron ore production and shipment data were released. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate as the market sentiment eases [31]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - NOPA's June soybean crushing was higher than expected. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to US soybean产区 weather and Sino - US relations [33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar export in the first two weeks of July decreased. Pakistan canceled a large - scale sugar import tender. The sugar price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the processing sugar quotation [35][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The oil market is expected to decline slightly, and a YP spread widening strategy can be considered [41]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment in H1 increased by 4.6%. Steel prices are expected to have limited upward space, and a rebound hedging strategy is recommended for the spot market [42][44]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - New Hope's expected H1 2025 net profit increased. The hog price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended for the 09 contract [46][47]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises in different regions had different profit situations. The starch price is expected to be stable, and the CS - C spread has high uncertainty [48]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of the corn auction on July 15 decreased. Corn prices are expected to oscillate, and short positions on new - crop corn can be considered [49][51]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was presented. The lead price is expected to have support at the moving average, and long positions can be considered on dips [52]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A zinc smelter in central China plans to conduct maintenance in August. The zinc price is expected to be under pressure, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [54][55]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Lockheed Martin plans to restart seabed mining. China's copper production increased. The copper price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [57][59]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia and the EU have no disputes over nickel mining policies. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [61][63]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sayona's lithium project drilling results were positive. Lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short term, and long positions on dips can be considered [64]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU plans to expand the CBAM scope. The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - On July 15, the PX price declined. The PX price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [68]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price declined, and the basis was stable. The PTA price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term [70][72]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A styrene plant in Shandong resumed production. The styrene price is expected to oscillate downward, and potential layout opportunities should be observed [73]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories are implementing production cuts. The bottle chip price is expected to have a short - term relief in supply pressure, and opportunities to expand the processing margin can be considered [74][77]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased sporadically. The caustic soda price is expected to have difficulty rising further after the basis has been adjusted [77][78]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp price was stable. The pulp price is expected to have limited upward space as the supply - demand situation remains unchanged [79][80]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market was slightly weaker. The PVC price is expected to have limited upward space as the fundamentals are weakening [81][82]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price is expected to have a trading range of [900, 1100] yuan/ton, and a long - glass short - soda ash strategy is recommended [83][84]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in North China was stable. The soda ash price is expected to be sold short on rallies in the medium term [85][86]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's June production increased, and China's June crude oil processing volume rebounded. The crude oil price is expected to oscillate in the short term [87][88]. 2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Shipping companies adjusted their US - East routes. The container freight rate is expected to have short - selling opportunities for the EC2510 contract and 10 - 12 reverse spread opportunities [90][92].

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Economic Research 15 July 2025 China: 2Q GDP came in modestly above expectations Structural imbalances overshadow growth concerns in the near term China's 2Q GDP report came in better than expected. Real GDP growth was regsitered at 5.2%oya (JPM and consensus: 5.1%oya), which translated into sequential growth of 4.1%q/q saar (vs. 5.6%q/q saar in 1Q). This is not surprising, as we have warned of a risk bias to the upside to our 2Q growth forecast. In nominal terms, GDP growth dec ...

Economic Growth - GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is 5.3%, exceeding the target of 5%[1] - Q2 GDP growth is 5.2%, slightly below Q1 and Q4 of the previous year, which were both 5.4%[1] - The GDP deflator index decreased from -0.8% in Q1 to -1.3% in Q2, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance[1] Industrial Performance - Industrial added value in June increased by 6.8%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Exports contributed nearly 40% to the increase in industrial added value, with a 4.0% growth in export delivery value in June[2] - The industrial sales rate in June was 94.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[1] Retail Sector - Retail growth slowed to 4.8% in June, primarily due to holiday misalignment and a decline in dining revenue[3] - The dining revenue growth rate in June was only 0.9%, a decrease of 5 percentage points from May, negatively impacting overall retail[4] - National subsidies for retail showed a reduced effect, contributing 1.5 percentage points to retail growth, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] Consumer Behavior - The proportion of per capita consumption expenditure to disposable income in Q2 was 68.6%, lower than 2019 levels by 1.9 percentage points[5] - Urban consumption rates were 63.1%, down 2.8 percentage points from 2019, while rural consumption rates were 89.2%, up 1.6 percentage points[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for the first half of 2025 was 2.8%, with a 6.6% increase excluding real estate investment[7] - In June, fixed asset investment fell to -0.1% year-on-year, with significant slowdowns in infrastructure and manufacturing investments[7] - The issuance of local special bonds increased in June, reaching 5270.9 billion yuan, but infrastructure investment growth continued to slow[7] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales in June showed a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in area and 10.8% in sales value, marking the first drop below -10% since October of the previous year[8] - New residential prices fell by 0.3% month-on-month in June, the lowest since November of the previous year[8] - Expectations for new real estate policies may arise in July-August, focusing on mortgage rate reductions and potential easing of purchase restrictions[8] Policy Outlook - The necessity for additional economic stimulus may decrease due to better-than-expected growth, with potential delays in new policies until external demand weakens significantly[9] - The government may prioritize targeted financial tools and mortgage rate adjustments in response to economic data in July-August[9] Market Reactions - Following the economic data release, equity markets initially dipped but later rebounded, indicating resilience in market sentiment[10] - The bond market showed increased optimism, with yields declining as the economic growth trend demonstrated resilience against dual pressures of tariffs and weak demand[11]

法国总理贝鲁：我们旨在将2029年预算赤字减少至GDP的2.8%，与现有承诺一致。 ...