美国经济分析局8月28日发布数据显示，美国第二季度GDP年率上修至增长3.3%。 ...

Group 1 - The three major U.S. stock indices opened slightly higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.06%, Nasdaq up 0.15%, and S&P 500 up 0.04% [1] - Snowflake's stock surged over 11% after the company reported Q2 earnings that exceeded market expectations [1] - Nvidia's stock rose over 1% during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Alibaba and JD.com down over 2%, while NIO and Li Auto rose over 2% [1] - U.S. stock index futures were slightly higher, with Dow futures up 0.13%, S&P 500 futures up 0.05%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.03% [2] - Nvidia's stock turned positive in pre-market trading after previously declining by 3.3% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward revision of the U.S. second-quarter GDP growth, primarily driven by improved business investment and significant trade contributions [1][4] - Business investment growth was revised from an initial 1.9% to 5.7%, reflecting enhanced investments in software and transportation equipment [4] - Net exports contributed nearly 5 percentage points to GDP growth, marking the highest level on record, contrasting with the previous quarter where net exports had a negative impact [4][9] Group 2 - Consumer spending showed resilience with a second-quarter annualized growth rate of 1.6%, up from the initial estimate of 1.4%, contributing 1.07 percentage points to GDP growth [5][6] - The real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a key indicator of consumer demand, grew at a steady rate of 1.9% for two consecutive quarters, indicating stable underlying demand [5][6] - Retailers, including Walmart and Home Depot, expressed optimism about consumer resilience despite rising prices due to tariffs [5] Group 3 - The revised second-quarter actual GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate was 3.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.1% and the previous value of 3% [7] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for the second quarter remained steady at 2.5%, aligning with initial estimates [7][12] Group 4 - Domestic Gross Income (GDI) surged by 4.8% in the second quarter, contrasting sharply with a mere 0.2% increase in the first quarter, indicating a rebound in economic activity [11] - Corporate profits increased by 1.7% in the second quarter, reversing the largest decline since 2020 recorded in the first quarter [11] - The share of after-tax profits of non-financial corporations remained stable at 15.7%, significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, suggesting robust profitability [11]

U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 were 229k, slightly below the expected 230k, with the prior week's figure revised from 235k to 234k U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.3%, surpassing expectations of 3.1% and up from the previous 3.0%. ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 GDP Q2:EXPECTED: 3.0%ACTUAL: 3.3% https://t.co/2dlT9v1EvB ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This year, with Trump's return to the White House, U.S. policies have shifted significantly, increasing market attention to U.S. economic and financial trends. The report aims to build an analysis framework for tracking the U.S. economy, focusing on the core economic indicators of the U.S. household sector [2][11]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to U.S. GDP reached a record - high of 4.99%, mainly driven by a sharp decrease in imports. However, after excluding the contribution of net exports, the real GDP growth rate was - 2.0%, indicating a severe decline in domestic demand [28]. - The significant downward revision of non - farm data may be due to large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year, which affected data collection efficiency and increased the risk of statistical errors. There may also be other systematic factors [3][125]. - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In the optimistic, benchmark, and pessimistic scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4]. - In the "stagflation - like" situation, the Fed is in a dilemma. Powell signaled a 25bp interest rate cut in September, but the evolution of non - farm employment and inflation data in August needs to be verified. The report maintains the benchmark assumption of two 25bp interest rate cuts in September and December [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Five - Sector Perspective on the U.S. Economy Observation Starting Point - The report divides the U.S. economy into five core sectors: government, enterprise, household, finance, and overseas sectors. The household and enterprise sectors form the core "employment - consumption" cycle, and the government participates in resource reallocation [12]. 3.2 U.S. Q2 GDP: The "Apparent Prosperity" Driven by Net Exports - The U.S. GDP is calculated and released by the BEA. There are three estimates for each quarter, and annual overhauls are conducted in July. The GDP data is also seasonally adjusted [16]. - From 2020 - 2023, the U.S. GDP revision was large due to the impact of the pandemic. Since H2 2024, the revision has gradually converged, but the "reciprocal tariff" policy may cause the revision to increase again [17]. - Personal consumption expenditure is the most important component of U.S. GDP, with a long - term upward - trending share and a significant driving effect on economic growth. Net exports have a continuous negative contribution to GDP growth [24]. - In Q2, the contribution rate of net exports to GDP reached a record high, mainly due to a 15.1% month - on - month decrease in imports and a 1.7% increase in exports, narrowing the trade deficit by 50.8%. However, domestic demand declined seriously after excluding the contribution of net exports [28]. 3.3 Consumption Research Framework Based on Household Income and Expenditure - The U.S. consumption research can start from the income and expenditure of residents. Income is divided into five parts, with laborer compensation accounting for 57% and transfer payment income accounting for 18% in June 2025 [32]. - Personal disposable income is obtained by subtracting government social security contributions and personal current taxes from total income. From August 2023 to June 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of personal disposable income decreased significantly, weakening residents' consumption ability and confidence [33]. - U.S. personal consumption expenditure is divided into goods and services consumption. Since 2022, service consumption has made a greater contribution to GDP. In June 2025, the actual personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with goods consumption increasing by 2.9% and service consumption increasing by 1.7% [38][40]. - Retail sales data shows that in June 2025, the year - on - year and month - on - month retail sales increased, with miscellaneous goods retailers being the main driving force [45]. - The U.S. personal savings rate has fallen to 4.5%, lower than the pre - pandemic average. In the future, the savings rate may continue to rise, suppressing short - term consumption growth [51]. - Third - party data such as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and the Redbook Retail Sales Index can be used to verify U.S. consumption conditions. The overall consumption growth in the U.S. is slowing down [53][61]. 3.4 How to Track U.S. Employment after the "Non - Farm" Data Distortion 3.4.1 Employment Research Framework Based on Supply and Demand Sides - There are many employment - related data in the U.S., including JOLTS, CES, ADP, CPS, and UI. These data have different sample scopes, core indicators, advantages, and frequencies [63]. - JOLTS provides supplementary information on the demand side of the labor market. The job vacancy rate reflects the shortage of labor. Since 2022, the gap between job vacancies and hiring has narrowed, and the resignation rate has continued to decline [67][73][76]. - CES (non - farm data) has a wide coverage. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs was lower than expected, and the data for May and June was significantly revised downward. The hourly wage of the private sector increased, increasing inflation pressure [78][86]. - ADP data is based on real payroll records of private - sector employees, covering more than 25 million employees. It is released two days earlier than CES and can be used to perceive private - sector employment trends [91]. - CPS is a household - based survey that provides information on labor force participation rate, unemployment rate, and other indicators. In July, the labor force participation rate declined for four consecutive months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [93][104]. - The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report provides high - frequency data on initial and continued claims for unemployment benefits, which can be used to predict economic inflection points [108]. 3.4.2 How Credible is the Non - Farm Data? - In May - June this year, the non - farm employment data was significantly revised downward, and the deviation of the revision reached a new high since 2010. The reasons given by the BLS are insufficient to fully explain the large - scale revision [116]. - It is more likely that large - scale layoffs in government departments in the first half of the year affected data collection efficiency, and there may be other systematic factors. The credibility of non - farm employment data has declined, and multiple independent data should be used for cross - verification [125]. 3.5 U.S. Inflation Monitoring and Tariff Impact Assessment 3.5.1 Inflation Status Monitoring and Expectation Analysis Framework - The report analyzes U.S. inflation from two aspects: status monitoring (focusing on CPI and PCE) and expectation analysis (introducing BEI and 5Y - 5Y BEI) [126]. - CPI and PCE are two core consumer inflation indicators. PCE is generally lower than CPI because of its chain - type update and wider coverage. The Fed prefers PCE [126][127]. - Core services are the main driver of U.S. inflation. In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of service CPI was 2.18%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.18% [130]. 3.5.2 Import Structure Split and Tariff Calculation: U.S. PCE May Face Phased Upward Pressure - The current tariff level has an impact on the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE. In different scenarios, it may increase by 0.37, 0.92, and 1.46 percentage points respectively. Once the tariff effect fully appears in prices, the year - on - year growth rate of U.S. PCE may rise above 3% [4].

The US has slapped a crushing 50% tariff on some Indian goods. The higher tariffs took effect earlier this hour, doubling the existing 25% duty that was implemented on August the 7th. For more, let's bring in our India trade and economy reporter Shrii Shivasta Sabah in New Delhi.Uh Shri, maybe let's just start with uh and first of all, this is a really high level of tariffs. It's 50%. What sort of an impact is this going to have on the Indian economy.How punitive is it going to be. Definitely as you said th ...

US to publish economic data on blockchain, starting with GDP: Commerce Secretary Lutnick https://t.co/0tOUSsUQqS ...

Financial Reports - Nvidia, Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, Luxshare Precision, and Zhongji Xuchuang are set to release their financial data [3][22][26][27]. - Nvidia is expected to report a revenue of $45.92 billion for Q3, with an EPS of $1.01, despite uncertainties in the Chinese market due to U.S. export restrictions [18][19]. - Alibaba's Q1 revenue for FY2026 is projected to reach 249 billion yuan, a 2% year-on-year increase, but adjusted EBITA is expected to decline by 15% to 38.2 billion yuan due to significant subsidies in its flash purchase business [22][23]. - Meituan's Q2 revenue is anticipated to be between 92.4 billion and 95.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 16.3%, but net profit is expected to drop by 29.3% to 50.6% [24]. - Pinduoduo is projected to achieve a revenue of 103.2 billion yuan for Q2, a 6.32% increase year-on-year, with an expected EPS of 12.3 yuan, down 43.08% [26]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE price index for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.5%, indicating rising service sector inflation [4]. - The U.S. Q2 GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.1%, surpassing the market expectation of 2.6%, but the growth is considered misleading due to a significant drop in imports [5][6]. - U.S. July durable goods orders fell by 9.3% in June, with a core data increase of 0.25% month-on-month, indicating a challenging investment environment for businesses [9]. - China's official manufacturing PMI for August dropped to 49.3%, signaling a slowdown in manufacturing activity [10]. - China's industrial profits for July showed a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, although the automotive sector saw a profit increase of 96.8% due to promotional activities [11]. Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total tariff rate to 50%, which is expected to significantly impact India's economic growth [13][14].

Economic Growth Projections - China's GDP is projected to reach $20 trillion by 2025, supported by a stable economic growth rate of at least 5% [1][3] - In 2024, China's GDP is estimated at $18.94 trillion, with the first half contributing $8.68 trillion, accounting for 45.83% of the total [3] Trade and Surplus - China's trade surplus for the first seven months reached $683.514 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.2%, marking the highest level for the same period [3] - The trade surplus is expected to exceed $1.2 trillion in 2025, providing strong support for economic growth [3] Domestic Demand and Investment - Social retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year in the first seven months, but fixed asset investment growth was only 1.6% due to weak real estate and private investment [4] - The uneven development across industries is a core reason for the moderate economic growth rate of around 5% [6] Structural Challenges - The transition from old to new economic drivers is incomplete, with traditional growth engines losing momentum [6] - There is a need for precise macroeconomic regulation and deeper reforms to stimulate private investment and stabilize the real estate market [6] Future Economic Landscape - By 2025, both China and the U.S. are expected to achieve significant GDP milestones, with the U.S. projected to reach $30.04 trillion [8][10] - The economic growth of both countries will have systemic impacts on global trade, investment, and market confidence [10] Quality of Growth - The focus is shifting towards achieving balanced, efficient, and sustainable development, emphasizing the quality of growth alongside quantity [10] - China's economic transformation is aimed at enhancing the quality of life for its citizens while navigating various challenges [10]