Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, emphasizing the importance of focusing on companies with long-term competitive advantages and the implementation of robotics in various scenarios [2][7]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle due to increased monetary and fiscal policies, with a focus on domestic demand stimulation [7]. - The report highlights the shift of humanoid robots from product development to customer acquisition and the critical phase of commercial implementation, particularly in sectors like automotive manufacturing and intelligent logistics [7]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on companies in the industrial control sector, robotics, machine tools, cutting tools, testing, engineering machinery, and logistics equipment [7]. Summary by Sections Key Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Investment Ratings - Companies such as 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 法兰泰克 (Flantech), and 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric) are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected EPS growth from 2.12 to 3.01, 0.60 to 0.94, and 1.83 to 2.78 respectively from 2025E to 2027E [3][8]. - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation metrics for various companies, indicating strong growth potential in the mechanical sector [3]. Industry and Company Investment Views - The report discusses the precision reducer market, which is expected to reach a scale of 9.1 billion yuan in 2024, with domestic companies increasing their market share [21][22]. - The report identifies three major downstream application scenarios for precision reducers: industrial robots, high-end machine tools, and humanoid robots, highlighting the growth potential in these areas [23]. - Companies like 博众精工 (Bozhong Precision) are noted for their multi-track business layout and significant revenue growth, with a projected CAGR of 11.94% from 2018 to 2024 [27][29]. Key Data Tracking - The report includes macroeconomic data, such as the manufacturing PMI index and fixed asset investment growth rates, which are crucial for understanding the industry's performance [34][35]. - It also tracks the monthly sales of excavators and forklifts, providing insights into the demand trends within the mechanical sector [41][42].

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was 1.44 trillion CNY, a slight decrease of approximately 50 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40% during the week, with a year-to-date increase of 26.3%[12] Market Style Performance - Large-cap value stocks outperformed with a weekly gain of 1.94%, while small-cap growth stocks lagged with a gain of only 1.14%[12] - The relative performance of small-cap stocks remained positive, indicating a sustained advantage over large-cap stocks[15] Participant Performance - The "National Team" index showed the best performance with a weekly increase of 1.97% and a year-to-date increase of 16.32%[23] - The private equity heavy index increased by 1.22% this week, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 54.71%[23] Market Sentiment - The total number of stocks that rose during the week was 4,054, with 94 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 7 stocks hit the limit down[25] - The margin trading balance increased to nearly 1.86 trillion CNY, indicating a rise in market participation[29] Sector Trends - Strong sectors included steel, building materials, and photovoltaic, driven by government policies promoting a unified national market[39] - The innovation drug sector received a boost from new measures supporting high-quality development[39] Future Events - Key upcoming events include the Samsung Unpacked product launch on July 9 and the 2025 China Automotive Forum from July 10-12[44] Strategic Focus - The report emphasizes three strategic focuses for 2025: promoting domestic circulation, achieving technological self-reliance, and expanding openness[45] - Specific areas of interest include consumer electronics, industrial automation, and AI applications[45] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, uncertainties in overseas interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions[48]

Core Insights - The Shouheng Gaobeidian International Agricultural Products Trading Center is a major hub for fruit imports in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, with a daily throughput of 40,000 to 60,000 tons of fruits and vegetables, peaking at 70,000 to 80,000 tons during the busy season [1][4] - The market's imported fruit trading area occupies about 30% of the total area but accounts for over 55% of the total trading value of fruits [2] - The market is expanding its offerings to include a variety of frozen products and pre-prepared dishes, indicating a shift from basic agricultural products to processed food items [3][4] Market Operations - On July 2, approximately 24.5 million boxes and 1.44 million durians were sold, showcasing the rapid turnover of products [1] - The market has hundreds of merchants engaged in the import fruit trade, with a significant focus on frozen products, including a dedicated section for pre-prepared dishes [3] - The Shouheng Group is actively developing international supply chain operations, linking over 100 suppliers from more than 50 countries to enhance the variety of imported food available in China [4] Strategic Expansion - The Shouheng Group is establishing a nationwide network of agricultural product markets, with the Xianggan Shouheng City project already operational and achieving a trading volume of over 10 million tons within a year and a half [6] - The Gaobeidian market and the Xianggan project serve as strategic points for the company's national layout, facilitating a comprehensive agricultural product circulation ecosystem [6] - The Caofeidian terminal project, recently completed, is expected to enhance the logistics capabilities of the Gaobeidian market, further supporting the supply of imported fruits and frozen products [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for effective promotion of agricultural technology innovation and accelerated development and application of advanced medical devices [1][2] - The focus is on enhancing agricultural productivity through technology, particularly in key areas such as seed industry, agricultural machinery, feed, and cultivation techniques [1] - There is a strong emphasis on the integration and promotion of agricultural technology achievements to improve service for farmers and enhance agricultural efficiency [1] Group 2 - The government aims to increase policy support and optimize the innovation ecosystem for medical device research and development [2] - Encouragement for enterprises, hospitals, and research institutions to focus on cutting-edge technologies and critical "bottleneck" technologies in pharmaceuticals and medical devices [2] - The goal is to establish a unified national market for pharmaceuticals and medical devices, supporting companies in international competition and expanding the development space for the medical industry [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation across various sectors, including demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market has a complex performance with new home sales having a mixed trend and second - hand home sales mostly declining. The automotive consumption is warming up, industrial production is stable with strong infrastructure construction, and there are specific changes in investment, trade, prices, and the issuance progress of interest - rate bonds [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand - New home sales: The weekly new home sales increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 3.498 million square meters, up 2% month - on - month and down 8% year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. There were differences among different city - tiers, with second - tier cities seeing a large increase in new home sales [1][11]. - Second - hand home sales: The transaction volume of second - hand homes in key cities mostly decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. As of the week ending July 4, the transaction areas of second - hand homes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou decreased by 10%, 4%, 5%, and 18% month - on - month respectively, and 14%, 7%, 9%, and 22% year - on - year respectively [28][30]. - Automotive consumption: It continued to warm up. As of the week ending July 4, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 18.4% month - on - month, and were basically the same as the same period last year. The national movie box office increased by 17.0% month - on - month, but was weaker than the same period last year. The national migration scale index increased by 6.6% month - on - month, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month [39]. 2. Production - Mid - upstream: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces and rebar decreased, while the operating rate of PTA, polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and petroleum asphalt plants increased, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction [2][46]. - Downstream: The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires of automobiles decreased, but the absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2]. 3. Investment - Rebar: The apparent consumption of rebar improved, with the price increasing by 0.9% month - on - month to 3230.6 points, and the apparent consumption increasing by 2.3% month - on - month to 2.25 million tons as of the week ending July 4 [63]. - Cement: The cement price decreased by 1.4% month - on - month to 111.5 points as of the week ending July 4. As of the week ending June 27, the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 40.8%, and the cement storage ratio decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.8% [63]. 4. Trade - Export: The port container throughput decreased by 0.7% month - on - month as of the week ending July 4, but was higher than the same period last year. The CCFI composite index decreased by 1.9% month - on - month. The freight rates of European and Southeast Asian routes increased, while those of the US West and East routes decreased. The BDI index continued to decline, dropping 10.3% month - on - month [77]. - Import: The container shipping price decreased, and the CICFI composite index was 685.4 points, a slight decrease of 0.6% month - on - month [77]. 5. Prices - CPI: The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The pork price increased by 0.8% month - on - month, while the prices of eggs, vegetables, and fruits decreased by 1.8%, 0.5%, and 0.8% month - on - month respectively [5][89]. - PPI: Commodity prices were differentiated. The metal price index increased, the Nanhua industrial product price index increased by 0.3% month - on - month, the Brent crude oil spot price decreased by 1.8% month - on - month, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the LME copper spot price increased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][96]. 6. Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next - week issuance plan: From July 7 to July 11, the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 268.8 billion yuan, with a net financing of 58.7 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan with a net financing of - 80.1 billion yuan, the issuance of local bonds is 231.8 billion yuan with a net financing of 107.8 billion yuan, and the issuance of policy - bank bonds is 37 billion yuan with a net financing of 31 billion yuan [107]. - Issuance progress: As of July 4, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds this year was 1.8246 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 91.2%. The issuance of new general bonds was 452 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 56.5%. The issuance of new special bonds was 2.1635 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 49.2% [6][109][112]. 7. Policy Week Observation - Central Financial and Economic Commission's 6th meeting: On July 1, Xi Jinping chaired the meeting to discuss promoting the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy [118]. - Central Bank's operation: In June, the central bank did not conduct open - market treasury bond transactions, marking the sixth consecutive month of no such operations [119]. - China's PMI data: In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall expansion of the economic prosperity level [120]. - US "Big and Beautiful" Act: On July 3 local time, the US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" Act, which is expected to increase the US deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [121]. - Trump's tariff statement: On July 4 local time, Trump said that countries will start paying new tariffs on August 1, but did not name specific countries [122]. - Nanjing's housing provident fund policy: Nanjing adjusted its housing provident fund policy, including expanding the scope of off - site loans, relaxing the conditions for off - site housing purchase withdrawals, and extending the maximum loan term for existing housing [123]. - Hubei's real - estate policy: On July 3, Jingmen, Hubei issued policies to stabilize the real - estate market, including promoting the sales of underground parking spaces and commercial and office buildings, and promoting the spot - house sales from January 1, 2026 [124].

Core Points - The meeting focused on implementing Xi Jinping's important discussions and directives regarding regional coordinated development, aiming to elevate the level of regional coordination in Shaanxi province [1][2] - Emphasis was placed on aligning with national strategies for regional coordination, optimizing regional layout, and promoting collaborative development among different areas [2] Group 1 - The meeting was chaired by Zhao Yide, who highlighted the importance of Xi Jinping's strategies for regional development since the 18th National Congress [1] - Zhao Yide called for a unified approach to align thoughts and actions with the central government's decisions to support Shaanxi's development [1] - The meeting included discussions on enhancing the quality of urban integration and promoting innovation in the Xi'an metropolitan area [2] Group 2 - Zhao Gang emphasized the need for leading industries to drive technological and industrial innovation, particularly in the energy and chemical sectors in northern Shaanxi [2] - The focus was also on supporting green and circular development in southern Shaanxi, enhancing regional特色产业 [2] - The meeting aimed to create a strong collaborative effort to promote regional coordinated development through improved mechanisms and responsibilities [2]

Economic Outlook - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Huang Wentao, identifies ten highlights for the Chinese economy in the second half of the year [1] - The willingness of foreign investors to allocate assets in China is increasing, influenced by the anticipated interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China and a stable CPI [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a strong performance in the first half of the year, with a focus on technology sectors and new economy enterprises [1] Fiscal and Policy Support - Fiscal policy is likely to be strengthened in response to weakening external demand, focusing on efficiency and supporting key expenditures to achieve economic growth targets [1] - Policies aimed at boosting service consumption are expected to accelerate, with a shift from "needs" to "wants" in consumer behavior [2] - Supportive measures are being implemented to release domestic demand potential, including interest rate adjustments and revitalizing real estate [2] Industry and Technological Development - The acceleration of industrial upgrades is highlighted as a main line for economic growth, with significant policy support for emerging industries [1] - Continued breakthroughs in technology are anticipated, with increased support for research and development across various fields [1] - The development of new productive forces is guiding the construction of Chinese-style modernization, with an emphasis on building a unified national market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector is experiencing a rally despite overall market fluctuations, driven by environmental regulations and improving demand conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The steel ETF (515210) rose by 1.67%, leading the market with a trading volume of nearly 104 million yuan [1]. - Key holdings such as Lingang Co. and Liugang Co. have seen consecutive trading limits, while other stocks like Shougang Co. and Hesteel Co. increased by nearly 5% [1]. - Since September 2, 2024, the steel ETF has gained 31.33%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Tangshan has intensified its environmental production restrictions, with rumors of measures from July 4 to July 15 [3]. - The China Iron and Steel Association is set to hold a meeting, although the agenda remains undisclosed [3]. - Steel inventory among key enterprises increased by 420,000 tons to 16.21 million tons in mid-June, but decreased by 140,000 tons compared to the same period last month [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The operating rate of H-beam steel producers rose by 3.23 percentage points to 70.97%, with capacity utilization increasing by 0.9 percentage points to 56.83% [4]. - Demand is expected to improve marginally due to supportive real estate policies and stable infrastructure investment, while supply constraints are becoming more pronounced [4]. - The profit margin for the black metal smelting and rolling industry reached 31.69 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [4]. - The comprehensive gross profit for the steel industry was 281 yuan per ton in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.45% [4].

晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 基金研究 小盘成长风格表现突出，主动权益基金发行市场火热——公募基金 7 月月报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券 7 月月报 行业研究 证 国补夯实家居业绩改善基础，持续关注高景气的宠物食品行业——轻工制造 &纺织服饰行业 7 月投资策略展望 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 2 ...

标本兼治解决问题，"标"是无序价格战，"本"是不正当竞争和地方保护主义，与16年 供改有明显不同 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/赵宏鹤 作为党中央领导财经工作的决策议事协调机构，中央财经委员会会议的规格和重要性很高。 相比部署 全面工作的政治局会议，财经委会议的召开频率更低、议题更聚焦。政治局会议部署经济工作一般是每 年的4、7、12月+不定期，年均3-4次；相比之下，十九届财经委5年间共召开11次会议，二十届财经 委至今召开过6次会议，年均2次。 更聚焦的议题有助于我们了解决策层的当下关切，对下一阶段的政策方向有重要指引。 例如，2022年 4月的十九届财经委第十一次会议，研究"全面加强基础设施建设"问题，随后基建投资一改2018- 2021年年均增长2%的低迷状态，2022年以来年均增速接近10%，中央财政通过"两重"（重大工程、 重点项目）投入了大量资金。再比如，2024年2月的二十届财经委第四次会议，研究"两新"（大规模 设备更新和消费品以旧换新）问题，可以说是"两新"政策在中央层面部署的起点。 7月1日的二十届财经委第六次会议，研究的问题之一是"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"，标志着改革 再提速。 "构建全国统 ...