a. 19 find in and | 121 Well I as in a SICI r 2017 23 t 2 吉隆坡谈判双方各退一步，基本回到了马德里达成的共识，非常好。 如果做一个简单的描述。 马德里谈判后，美国认为在时间的赛跑上，中国不具有优势，特别强调了房地产给中国经济带来的压力，贝森特认为中国将不得不在下一轮关税谈判中退 让，于是开始做压力测试，如以安全为由，将15家中国公司列入"实体清单"。 对此，中国打出了稀土牌，在一系列的文章，我一直坚持一个观点，稀土是谈判筹码，不能当成屠龙刀，因为中国不具有长期垄断稀土生产的可能性，事实 证明我是对的。 l a · ■ 上一 l p 1 s t and L 1 稀土限制与美国一连串的压力测试有一个极大的不同，美国是单向的，完全以中国为靶向，而稀土牌是对应着全球市场，这一点很重要，因为它会立即催生 稀土产业的重构，资本涌向稀土，提纯技术的提高与创新定义未来的格局：中国将从稀土垄断转向过剩，没有悬念。它与芯片不同，前者是传统产业，而后 者是时代级的创新。 牌已经打出，的确打中了美国及西方发达国家的软肋。 稀土是美日带起来的产业，考虑到重污染，基本关停了，比较 ...

在刚过去的72小时里，中美贸易争端再次升级，局势变得更加复杂和紧张。核心要点可以分成两大方面来理解： 1) 中国方面的举动 中国对稀土的管控进一步升级，相关稀土资源及其加工、分离等技术出口也被严格管控起来。这意味着，一直以来被视为"关键材料"的稀土，在技术输出和 贸易往来上将受到更苛刻的限制，欧美企业也需要重新评估在高端制造领域对稀土的依赖程度。 当前的核心难题在于：国防部长应从何处筹集这笔应付军费的资金？在美国现行法律框架下，筹款手段必须透明，不能接受外部资本捐款。同时，特朗普个 人也不太可能直接从其商业帝国中拨出资金。分析人士普遍认为，最现实的途径或许是动用五角大楼的"紧急储备金"，这类资金原本用于应急和突发军事行 动的需要，动用与否尚待官方正式回应。 全球网民对这一事件的关注度极高，因为这是历史上罕见的美军大规模面临薪资发放困难的情形。中东等地区的网友还称，这种情形更凸显美军的"荣誉 感"与坚守精神：即便"肚子饿"，也要坚守岗位，保家卫国。这一说法让人联想起不久前美国军队高层的一些言论——有鹰派将领宣称，尽管中国在技术上 更具领先，美国军人仍有"钢铁般的意志"。这番话一出便在国际军事圈内引发了广泛的调侃 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. The mid - line trend is influenced by positive macro factors like the rising price of the US 10 - year Treasury bond and the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation [5][11]. - The future week's fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20900 [8]. - Although the electrolytic aluminum inventory has accumulated, the short - term contract of SHFE Aluminum remains strong, and the overall price structure is bullish [30]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. Macro factors are expected to push up aluminum prices in early July [5]. - **Trend Logic**: The rising price of the US 10 - year Treasury bond and the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation are positive for aluminum prices [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold low - position long orders in early July, and new orders are suitable for short - term trading in a high - level oscillation market [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract was predicted to be between 20400 - 20900 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Recommendation**: The future week's fluctuation range of the SHFE Aluminum 2508 contract is expected to be between 20300 - 20900. Spot enterprises can consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventory at low prices [8]. Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: The short - term shortage of domestic aluminum ore supply is difficult to ease, and the purchase price may be lowered. For imported ore, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea in July - August is expected to appear, but the price increase space is limited [9]. - **Alumina Market**: By June 26, the installed capacity of alumina in China was 112.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 89.7 million tons and an operating rate of 79.52%. The supply and demand at home and abroad will be in surplus in the second half of the year, but the surplus degree is narrower than in Q1 [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stable. The domestic production capacity is approaching the 45 - million - ton ceiling, and the production increase space is limited. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1200 yuan/ton. The impact of the easing of Sino - US trade confrontation on exports remains to be seen [9]. - **Demand**: The overall demand for aluminum products is weak in the off - season. The starting rates of various downstream industries such as aluminum profiles, aluminum sheets, aluminum foils, aluminum cables, and alloys have declined to varying degrees [10]. - **Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 461,000 tons, up about 3% from last week and about 40% lower than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 137,900 tons, up about 2% from last week and about 1% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has slightly increased [10][16]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2630 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 450 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3000 yuan/ton [11][18]. - **Market Expectation**: If the US dollar index or A - shares decline next week, the upward trend of aluminum prices will pause, and the market will enter a wide - range oscillation adjustment [11]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of some imported ores are expected to show a weakening oscillation trend. The price of thermal coal has rebounded, and the domestic alumina price has continued to decline [12]. - The price of aluminum products has changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [12]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of aluminum ore has rebounded, and the inventory of alumina has slightly increased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has accumulated, but the accumulation space is limited [14][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - The starting rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises has decreased by 1 percentage point to 58.8% this week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - Although the electrolytic aluminum inventory has accumulated, the short - term contract of SHFE Aluminum remains strong, and the overall price structure is bullish [30]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1220 yuan/ton this week, compared with - 1490 yuan/ton last week. The current spread may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [34][35]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has continued to rise slightly in the past 7 weeks. The short side has reduced positions in the past month, and the long side has remained stable. The market is expected to show a bullish oscillation [36]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position has slightly shrunk this week. Both the long and short sides have significantly increased positions since the end of May, and the market divergence is increasing. The market is expected to remain bullish next week [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for electrolytic aluminum is expected to show a large - range oscillation, with a bullish trend in July. The near - term bullish sentiment is based on the short - squeeze behavior induced by the continuous decline of overseas inventories and the expectation of the implementation effect of domestic economic - stabilizing policies. Before the major negative factor of Sino - US trade confrontation further intensifies, the market may continue to show a relatively strong oscillatory performance. The range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the coming week is expected to be between 20,400 and 20,900 [5][12]. - The overall downstream aluminum processing industry is in a strong off - season atmosphere. High aluminum prices, weak off - season demand, inventory pressure, and cost - side losses are the main suppressing factors, and the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to decline slightly on a week - on - week basis [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market shows a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. The basis for the near - term bullish view is the short - squeeze behavior caused by the continuous decline of overseas inventories and the expectation of the implementation effect of domestic economic - stabilizing policies. Before the Sino - US trade confrontation further intensifies, the market may continue the relatively strong oscillatory performance [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider increasing inventory allocation around 20,000 [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract in the coming week was expected to be between 20,200 and 20,800 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The market may continue the relatively strong oscillatory performance. The range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the coming week is expected to be between 20,400 and 20,900, and it is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [9]. 3.3 Overall View - **Supply - side**: The shortage of domestic bauxite supply is difficult to break, and there is an expectation of further tightening. The supply of alumina has decreased but is expected to recover by the end of the month, with a gradual small surplus. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, but the ingot output has declined due to some aluminum plants increasing the proportion of aluminum water. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. - **Demand - side**: The operating rates of various downstream aluminum products such as profiles, plates, foils, cables, and alloys have declined to varying degrees, with weak demand. The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% this week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [11][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is at a low level since 2017, with a decline of about 3% compared to last week and about 41% compared to the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 5% compared to last week and is at a relatively low level in the range since 2016. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been continuously declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [11]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,640 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 550 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,000 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: Domestically, during the policy window period, market expectations are generally positive, providing stable support for commodities. It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to oscillate at a high level next week, with the mainstream range likely to be between 20,400 and 20,800 yuan [12]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of most important industrial links have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Henan's first - grade alumina has decreased by 3.35% week - on - week, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost has decreased by 0.96% week - on - week [13]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventories of various products such as bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum rods have changed. For example, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 0.95% week - on - week, and the LME aluminum inventory has decreased by 2.92% week - on - week [15]. 3.6 Supply - demand Situation - The overall downstream aluminum processing is in the off - season, with the operating rate decreasing by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% this week. High aluminum prices, weak off - season demand, inventory pressure, and cost - side losses are the main suppressing factors, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [25]. 3.7 Futures - spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure remains relatively strong [29]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,490 yuan/ton, compared to - 1,700 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [36][37]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has slightly rebounded in the past 6 weeks. In the latest period, the long - position camp has remained stable while the short - position camp has reduced positions. The market may mainly show a relatively strong oscillatory performance in the near term [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position has remained stable this week. Both the long and short camps have significantly increased positions for two consecutive weeks, and market divergence is increasing. The net long position of financial - speculation - based funds has continued to increase slightly, and the net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has remained stable. The market may be stable with a slightly upward trend next week [41].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Strong [1] - Silver: Wide - range adjustment [1] - Copper: Rebound [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Lithium carbonate: Weak [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term adjustments do not change the strong logic of gold, and it has long - term strategic allocation value; silver is in a wide - range adjustment and should be treated with an interval trading approach; copper is in a rebound, and the long - term outlook is optimistic; zinc rebounds under pressure, with supply increasing and demand weak in the long - term; lead rebounds slightly; tin rises and then falls; aluminum rebounds slightly; nickel continues to rebound; industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are in a weak state [1] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold rose 0.97% to 789.22, COMEX gold fell 0.49% to 3341; SHFE silver fell 0.87% to 8161, COMEX silver rose 0.29% to 33. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio rose 1.87% to 96.71, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio fell 0.78% to 101.70 [2] - **Basic Logic**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points; US economic data declined, such as a 11.4% drop in new housing starts in March and a - 26.4 reading in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in April. Trump criticized Powell and called for a rate cut. Conflicts in tariff games are the main trend, accelerating the global de - dollarization process. Short - term liquidity shocks persist, and long - term international conflicts support the gold price [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, short - term trading is active, and the long - term logic remains unchanged. Control positions when chasing short - term long positions and maintain a long - term long - allocation mindset. For silver, it is in an oscillating range of [8000, 8500], so use an oscillating trading approach [4] Copper - **Market Information**: LME copper fell 0.49% to 9158 US dollars/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.3% to 76070 yuan/ton. Copper inventories decreased, and the spot price increased slightly [5] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, but it has not yet affected the electrolytic copper end. In March, domestic electrolytic copper production increased. Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade disputes, terminal consumption was suppressed, but downstream enterprises actively bought on dips, leading to a decrease in domestic inventories [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the increase in US tariffs on China, poor US economic data, and the approaching US debt repayment crisis, beware of the indiscriminate selling of risk assets. It is recommended to go long on copper with a light position near the lower moving average and set a stop - loss. In the long - term, the global copper mine shortage is difficult to ease, and the outlook for copper is still positive. Short - term SHFE copper focuses on the range [75000, 77000], and LME copper focuses on [8800, 9500] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - **Market Information**: LME zinc fell 0.04% to 2581 US dollars/ton, and SHFE zinc rose 0.23% to 22015 yuan/ton. Zinc inventories decreased, and the spot price decreased slightly [7] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to increase, and the processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates are positive. Many zinc smelters increased production in April - May. After the zinc price dropped, downstream enterprises actively replenished inventory on dips, but the export demand is expected to weaken due to anti - dumping tariffs from Brazil and Vietnam [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the increase in US tariffs on China, poor US economic data, and the approaching US debt repayment crisis, beware of the indiscriminate selling of risk assets. Zinc has rebounded from an oversold condition, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, supply exceeds demand, so look for opportunities to go short on rallies. SHFE zinc focuses on the range [21500, 22500], and LME zinc focuses on [2550, 2750] US dollars/ton [8] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded slightly, while alumina was under pressure. The LME aluminum price fell 0.15% to 2385 US dollars/ton, and the SHFE aluminum price rose 0.51% to 19645 yuan/ton. Aluminum inventories decreased [9] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, US tariffs have affected the market, but domestic inventories have decreased, and the downstream processing industry's overall operating rate has increased. For alumina, some plants have carried out maintenance and production cuts, but the market is still in an oversupply situation, and inventories have risen [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE aluminum in the short - term, focusing on the depletion of aluminum ingots. The main operating range is [19200 - 20200]. Alumina is expected to be relatively weak [10] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then fell. The LME nickel price rose 0.96% to 15745 US dollars/ton, and the SHFE nickel price rose 1.65% to 126190 yuan/ton. Nickel inventories increased slightly, and stainless steel inventories increased [11] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas tariff policies have affected the market. In the nickel industry, there are policy disputes in Indonesia, and the production and release of nickel ore are under - expected. Some smelters' raw material inventories are low, and domestic refined nickel inventories have decreased slightly. In the stainless steel industry, inventory depletion has encountered resistance, and exports are blocked, with an oversupply situation persisting [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short - term, focusing on downstream consumption in the peak season. The main operating range for nickel is [122000 - 129000] [12] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The main contract LC2505 opened slightly lower and was weak throughout the day. The prices of lithium - related products were mostly stable, and the inventory of lithium carbonate increased [13] - **Industrial Logic**: Due to weak fundamentals and macro - sentiment, the price of the main lithium carbonate contract has accelerated its decline. During the peak season, the total lithium carbonate inventory has increased for 9 consecutive weeks, indicating that supply growth exceeds demand growth. Sino - US trade frictions and market recession expectations may drag down overseas demand. The ore price still has room to fall, and it is difficult for the lithium carbonate price to get support in the short - term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The price range is [68000, 72000] [14]