2025.6.30-7.4 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 大区间震荡，7月偏上涨。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期美国10年期国债价格走高，中美贸易对抗暂缓等宏观因素预计仍对7月上 旬的铝价带来正面推力。 2 7月上旬低位多单持有，新单以高位震荡行情短线交易为宜。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 未来一周沪铝2508合约波动区间看20400-20900。 未来一周沪铝2508合约波动区间看20300-20900。 n 本周策略建议 n 现货企业套期保值建议 可考虑适量逢低配置期货虚拟库存 【总体观点】 | | 2025年6月第4周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 短期矿石供应短缺局面难有缓解，内陆矿山开工可提升空间有限，但由于下游工厂谨慎控制成本，不 | | | 排除后续继续下调国产矿采购价格，预计短期国产不含税日均价将维持在450-490元/吨；进口矿石方 | | | 面，7-8月几内亚雨季影响预计显现，不过当前国内氧化铝厂谨慎控制成本，矿石采购价提升空间有限。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截至6 月26日，中国氧化铝建成产能为11280万吨，开工产能为8970 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market for electrolytic aluminum is expected to show a large - range oscillation, with a bullish trend in July. The near - term bullish sentiment is based on the short - squeeze behavior induced by the continuous decline of overseas inventories and the expectation of the implementation effect of domestic economic - stabilizing policies. Before the major negative factor of Sino - US trade confrontation further intensifies, the market may continue to show a relatively strong oscillatory performance. The range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the coming week is expected to be between 20,400 and 20,900 [5][12]. - The overall downstream aluminum processing industry is in a strong off - season atmosphere. High aluminum prices, weak off - season demand, inventory pressure, and cost - side losses are the main suppressing factors, and the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to decline slightly on a week - on - week basis [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market shows a large - range oscillation, with a bullish tendency in July. The basis for the near - term bullish view is the short - squeeze behavior caused by the continuous decline of overseas inventories and the expectation of the implementation effect of domestic economic - stabilizing policies. Before the Sino - US trade confrontation further intensifies, the market may continue the relatively strong oscillatory performance [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider increasing inventory allocation around 20,000 [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The fluctuation range of the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract in the coming week was expected to be between 20,200 and 20,800 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The market may continue the relatively strong oscillatory performance. The range for the Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract in the coming week is expected to be between 20,400 and 20,900, and it is recommended to hold long positions and wait and see [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual futures inventories at low prices [9]. 3.3 Overall View - **Supply - side**: The shortage of domestic bauxite supply is difficult to break, and there is an expectation of further tightening. The supply of alumina has decreased but is expected to recover by the end of the month, with a gradual small surplus. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, but the ingot output has declined due to some aluminum plants increasing the proportion of aluminum water. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. - **Demand - side**: The operating rates of various downstream aluminum products such as profiles, plates, foils, cables, and alloys have declined to varying degrees, with weak demand. The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% this week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [11][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is at a low level since 2017, with a decline of about 3% compared to last week and about 41% compared to the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 5% compared to last week and is at a relatively low level in the range since 2016. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been continuously declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [11]. - **Profit**: The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,640 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 550 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,000 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: Domestically, during the policy window period, market expectations are generally positive, providing stable support for commodities. It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to oscillate at a high level next week, with the mainstream range likely to be between 20,400 and 20,800 yuan [12]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of most important industrial links have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Henan's first - grade alumina has decreased by 3.35% week - on - week, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost has decreased by 0.96% week - on - week [13]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventories of various products such as bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum rods have changed. For example, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 0.95% week - on - week, and the LME aluminum inventory has decreased by 2.92% week - on - week [15]. 3.6 Supply - demand Situation - The overall downstream aluminum processing is in the off - season, with the operating rate decreasing by 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% this week. High aluminum prices, weak off - season demand, inventory pressure, and cost - side losses are the main suppressing factors, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [25]. 3.7 Futures - spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure remains relatively strong [29]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,490 yuan/ton, compared to - 1,700 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [36][37]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has slightly rebounded in the past 6 weeks. In the latest period, the long - position camp has remained stable while the short - position camp has reduced positions. The market may mainly show a relatively strong oscillatory performance in the near term [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position has remained stable this week. Both the long and short camps have significantly increased positions for two consecutive weeks, and market divergence is increasing. The net long position of financial - speculation - based funds has continued to increase slightly, and the net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has remained stable. The market may be stable with a slightly upward trend next week [41].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 短期调整不改黄金强势逻辑。G2 大国多方面博弈剧烈，特朗普要求鲍威尔下 | | 黄金 | 强势 | 台，多国或流动性释放刺激经济经济。长期看，国际秩序破坏，不确定困扰持 | | | | 续，各经济体购金动力积极，黄金长期战略配置价值持续存在【740-780】 | | | | 基本面上全球需求释放或再现，商品市场波动剧烈，尽管中国和欧洲刺激预期 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 较大，但是短期需警惕流动性危机。品种属性方面，白银弹性大跟随黄金和基 | | | | 本金属波动，仍处于大的震荡区间附近，操作上区间思路对待。【8000-8500】 | | | | 特朗普，美国关税政策的不确定性加剧市场恐慌和混乱，美元指数走弱，铜延续反 | | 铜 | 反弹 | 弹，短期铜背靠下方均线，把握逢低试多机会，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间 | | | | 【75000，77000】 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 海内外库存累积，终端需求偏弱，锌震荡偏弱，空单可部分逢低止盈兑现，中 | | | | 长期看，锌供 ...