Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of US-China trade tensions has led to a significant drop in gold prices, with the market sentiment shifting away from safe-haven assets like gold [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold prices fell nearly 3% on Monday, closing at $3234.95 per ounce, marking a drop of $90.49 [1]. - The price of gold reached a record high of $3500.05 per ounce last month before the recent decline [2]. - The US and China have agreed to reduce tariffs, with the US cutting tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, and China reducing tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for a period of 90 days [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The focus is now on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month rise of 0.3% for April [2][3]. - A stronger-than-expected CPI could lead to a further strengthening of the US dollar, potentially triggering another round of gold sell-offs [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold remains bearish as long as optimistic sentiment prevails, with gold prices having recently broken below the flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA) [4]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3202.00, $3187.20, and $3176.45 per ounce, while resistance levels are at $3234.40, $3248.50, and $3263.85 per ounce [6][7]. - The momentum indicators are showing a downward trend, and if gold prices fall below the Monday low, they may target the May low of $3202.03 per ounce [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures price has a risk of giving back the accumulated risk premium due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade tensions. After giving back the trade and supply risk premiums, the internal - external linkage is expected to be restored. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term [6]. - The palm oil price is under pressure due to the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of April and weak demand. The decline in international oil prices also affects the outlook for Indonesian biofuel demand. With the opening of the import profit window, domestic palm oil inventory is rising, and its short - term trend is weakly volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term (within a week): oscillating; Medium - term (two weeks to one month): oscillating; Intraday: strongly volatile; Reference view: strongly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term trend is affected by factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, North American spring sowing weather, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. After the holiday, the soybean meal futures price was weaker than the external market, and it is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to the expected easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the restoration of internal - external linkage [6][7]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The price is affected by factors such as Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand. With the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and weak demand, along with the decline in international oil prices and the increase in domestic inventory, the short - term trend is weakly volatile [7][8]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weakly volatile; Reference view: weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The price is influenced by factors such as US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil refinery inventory, and channel stocking demand [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of beans and related oil products are showing a weakening trend, with an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for most products in the short - term and mid - term, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: As the expected Sino - US trade tensions ease, the risk premium of soybean futures prices faces the risk of retracement. Spot prices in North China and Northeast China have dropped significantly, and the futures market is adjusting the supply shortage expectation. The market expects supply to recover after May Day, and the pre - purchase by oil mills may gradually resolve the supply shortage. Downstream备货 mentality has changed, and subsequent stocking has become more cautious after a short - term concentrated stocking. Short - term soybean futures prices have retraced part of the risk premium and are obviously weak [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the significant decline in the price of raw soybeans, soybean oil futures prices have weakened. Palm oil lacks relevant themes and is a follower in the oil and fat sector. The supply - demand increase pattern in Southeast Asia cannot drive prices, and the increase in domestic ship purchases will replenish domestic inventories. Overall, palm oil is oscillating weakly in the short - term [7]. Other Related Varieties - **Soybean Oil (2509)**: The influencing factors include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel stocking demand [6]. - **Palm (2509)**: Influenced by Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices have dropped nearly 2% due to a stronger US dollar and easing US-China trade tensions, which reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - Gold's cumulative decline for the week exceeded 1%, with the US dollar index rising by 0.3%, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers and suppressing demand [1] - The easing of global uncertainties has led to a shift in investor preference towards risk assets, increasing downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - After a pullback from around $3500, gold is currently facing resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (approximately $3368 - $3370) [3] - The price has rebounded from a low of $3265, with key support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (around $3300) [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions around $3345 - $3365 resistance and monitoring support at $3280 - $3260 [4] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - The silver market shows key turning signals, with prices stabilizing above the MA55 moving average (32.502) and a bullish arrangement of MA14 and MA20 [6] - The MACD indicates a weakening downward momentum, while the RSI remains at 54.144, suggesting a bullish outlook [6] - Short-term trading strategy recommends short positions around $33.35 - $33.45 with a stop loss at $33.55 and targets set at $33.16 - $32.75 - $32.45 [6]

Report Summary of Shanghai Tin Industry on April 24, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro - face: There are hopes of easing Sino - US trade tensions, and Trump's abandonment of the threat to fire the Fed chairman has improved market sentiment. A series of domestic policies to expand domestic demand have been introduced, such as Guangdong and Shanghai planning to introduce the "Special Action Plan for Boosting Consumption". [3] - Fundamental - face: Myanmar's tin mine复产 is advancing, with a meeting on April 23 clarifying the复产 matters earlier than expected, but full - scale normal mining will take about two months. Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, so the shortage of ore supply is expected to improve in the second half of the year. The raw material structural contradiction in the smelting end is obvious, with low tin ore flow in Yunnan and restricted waste supply in Jiangxi, resulting in an operating rate lower than normal. Tin prices have fallen recently, improving downstream orders, and there is a high willingness to buy at low prices, but also a strong fear of high prices. Both domestic and foreign inventories have declined recently. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly at low prices, focusing on the range of 259,000 - 267,000 yuan/ton. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract was 259,520 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the closing price of the May - June contract was down 130 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 31,314 US dollars/ton, up 186 US dollars. [3] - Positions and inventories: The main contract's open interest was 22,539 lots, down 2,602 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 1,087 lots, up 70 lots. LME tin total inventory was 2,830 tons, down 50 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 9,571 tons (weekly), down 806 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants were 8,977 tons, unchanged. [3] b. Spot Market - Spot prices: The SMM 1 tin spot price was 261,000 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 260,710 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan. [3] - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract was 1,480 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the LME tin (0 - 3) spread was - 217.01 US dollars/ton, up 4.99 US dollars. [3] c. Upstream Situation - Import and prices: The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] d. Industry Situation - Production and import: The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons. [3] e. Downstream Situation - Product prices and production: The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 169,790 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strip) was 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons. [3] f. Industry News - PMI data: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5). The preliminary value of the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7 (expected 47.5, March final value 48.6); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5, March final value 51.0); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, March final value 50.9). [3] - Debt forecast: The International Monetary Fund said that the expected tariff increase in 2025 will cause the global public debt - to - GDP ratio to rise by 2.8 percentage points to 95.1% of GDP. If the decline in revenue and output due to tariffs exceeds current forecasts, the global debt level may exceed 117% of GDP by 2027. [3] - Tin mine复产: On April 23, 2025, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Administration held a meeting on the resumption of production of the Manxiang mine, clarifying the process for obtaining mining, processing plant, and exploration licenses in the Manxiang mining area. [3]