Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the stock index may continue a relatively strong trend, but attention should be paid to the impact of overseas geopolitical events on market risk appetite. In the long - term, the stock index is expected to rise in 2026 based on 2025 [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have various trends, including price increases, oscillations, and potential reversals, with corresponding investment strategies recommended [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Short - term, the stock index may continue to be strong, and in the long - term (2026), it is expected to rise on the basis of 2025 due to factors like continuous policy efforts, inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the support of Central Huijin [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks, and the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has further increased due to weak industry fundamentals but positive macro sentiment and continuous premium. However, short - term adjustment risks should be guarded against, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of supply - tightness expectations are likely to keep the price strong [1]. - Alumina: The supply side has a large release space, and the weak industry fundamentals put pressure on the price. However, the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, recent negative factors have been mostly realized, and market sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Nickel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about supply due to Indonesian events, slow inventory accumulation, and unconfirmed Indonesian policies are likely to keep the short - term price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices and control risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: Positive macro sentiment, concerns about raw - material supply, a rebound in nickel - iron prices, a slight reduction in social inventory, and an increase in January production plans are likely to keep the short - term futures price strong. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell and hedge [1]. - Tin: The industry association's initiative has put pressure on the price, but considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the supply may still be affected. After a short - term decline, the downward space is limited, and low - long opportunities near the support level are recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks and international - order uncertainties have boosted the demand for hedging, making the price strong in the short - term. However, the high VIX of silver indicates potential risks. Platinum and palladium are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long - platinum short - palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: There is a combination of weak reality (weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation) and strong expectation (potential supply disturbances from energy - consumption control and anti - involution). The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, while the far - month contract has upward potential [1]. - Steel (including Rebar): The valuation of the price is not high, and it is not recommended to short. Positions in cash - and - carry arbitrage can take rolling profits [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are acceptable, and the valuation is low, so the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure to oscillate [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply and demand, low valuation, and limited downward space, and may oscillate under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the corresponding position and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the implementation of the price cut. There is a high possibility of wide - range oscillations [1]. - Coke: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact on the price [1]. - Fuel Oil: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five - Year Plan's rush - work demand is falsified, the supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The cost is strongly supported, the spot - futures price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1]. - Rubber: For natural rubber, the mid - stream inventory may tend to accumulate, and the price oscillates. For BR rubber, the futures position has declined, the price increase has slowed down, the processing profit is gradually repaired, it maintains high - level operation in terms of production and inventory, and the spot trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp increase, and the domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the recovery of exports to India since the end of November [1]. - MEG: Two sets of MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production due to efficiency reasons. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream polyester operating rate is over 90%, with better - than - expected demand [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to reduce prices due to continuous losses, while buyers keep pressing prices due to weak downstream demand and profit compression. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the short - term upward momentum depends on overseas market drive [1]. - Steam: The upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the cost is strongly supported by high - level propylene monomers and rising crude - oil prices, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. - PVC: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, but currently, new capacity is being released, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak [1]. - Chlorine: The inventory pressure in Shandong is large, the supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and few overhauls, the non - aluminum demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is weakened by the rising price of liquid chlorine [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost - end support. Geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have increased the short - term risk premium. The EIA weekly C3 inventory is in an accumulation trend, with a temporary slowdown in overseas demand. The domestic PDH maintains high - level operation but is deeply in deficit, and the overseas olefin blending - oil demand is acceptable [1]. New Energy and Silicon Industry - Polysilicon: There is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest. The December production plan has decreased. A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally. Large enterprises are willing to support the price but not to deliver. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply - side production resumption has increased, and the price has risen rapidly in the short - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be negative, but it may reverse under themes such as seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1]. - Soybean Oil: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term, and waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: News of blocked trader purchases and Australian seed imports has led to a large rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent loosening of the fundamental situation. A decline in sentiment is expected, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [1]. - Cotton: The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, but the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and attention should be paid to factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a large supply of domestic new - crop sugar, with a strong consensus on short - selling. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1]. - Corn: The grass - roots grain - selling progress is relatively fast, the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the futures price is expected to have limited decline and then maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [1]. - Soybeans: Attention should be paid to the adjustment in the January USDA report and the impact of Brazilian harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, while the M03 - M05 spread is expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short - term, but caution should be exercised due to potential changes in customs policies, soybean auctions, and directional policies [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug - of - war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the downward space of the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward - driving factors in the spot - futures market. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Livestock - Hogs: The spot price has gradually stabilized recently, with demand support. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1].

Group 1: Overall Market Situation - The performance of overseas markets was strong during the holiday, but the geopolitical situation change on Saturday increased the uncertainty of the post - holiday risk - asset trend. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of overseas events on the risk appetite of domestic equity assets [1] Group 2: Fixed - Income Market - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The industrial situation is weak recently, but the macro sentiment is positive, and the premium of US copper persists, so the copper price has further increased. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk, though the trend is expected to remain unchanged [1] Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. But with positive macro sentiment and the early fermentation of the expected tight supply of aluminum ingots, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong [1] Alumina - The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the weak industry pressures the price. But the current price is basically near the cost line, so the price is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, the cost center has shifted up, and recent negative factors have basically materialized. Market sentiment is volatile, and the zinc price fluctuates [1] Nickel - The macro sentiment has warmed up. News about Indonesia has further boosted market concerns about nickel - ore supply. The global nickel - inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly recently with increased positions. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to Indonesia's policies and macro sentiment. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and excessive chasing of highs should be avoided [1] Stainless Steel - The raw - material nickel - iron price has rebounded, the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production in January has increased. The short - term stainless - steel futures are expected to be strong and volatile. Short - term low - buying is recommended, and enterprises should wait for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] Tin - The non - ferrous tin industry association issued an initiative to guide the price back to the normal range, pressuring the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there may be further fermentation of tin supply. After a short - term adjustment, the downside space is limited, and low - buying opportunities near the support level are recommended [1] Group 4: Precious Metals and New Energy Precious Metals - The geopolitical situation is tense, and precious - metal prices are still supported, but the VIX of Shanghai silver is still high, and there may still be short - term games. In the long run, the logic of precious metals remains unchanged. Based on the fact that silver may no longer be undervalued compared with gold, priority should be given to low - buying gold in the future [1] Platinum and Palladium - During the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly, which is expected to boost domestic prices. But in the short term, they may still have high volatility. In the medium - to - long term, there is a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. Platinum can be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted [1] Industrial Silicon - In the northwest, production increases, while in the southwest, it decreases. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December. A capacity storage platform company has been established, and there is a medium - to - long - term expectation of capacity reduction. Terminal installations increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver. Short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] Lithium Carbonate - It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption, and there is a short - term rapid increase. Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Group 5: Steel and Iron - Related Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rolling profit - taking of long - spot and short - futures positions can be carried out. The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] Iron Ore - The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1] Ferrous Metals (General) - There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. In reality, direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure. In expectation, energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may disrupt supply [1] Group 6: Building Materials Glass - The supply and demand are supported, the valuation is low, and there are renewed supply disruptions. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [1] Soda Ash - It follows the trend of glass. The supply and demand are acceptable, the valuation is low, the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and fluctuate [1] Coking Coal and Coke - The fourth round of spot price cuts has started. After the futures price fell to the level of the fourth - round cut and then rebounded, attention should be paid to whether the futures price can reach a new low during the period from the price - cut announcement to implementation. If the price - cut negative factors cannot drive continuous decline, the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate widely [1] Group 7: Agricultural Products Palm Oil - The MPOB December data is expected to be negative for palm oil, but it will reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel. If the oil price gaps up due to geopolitical events, short - selling can be considered [1] Soybean Oil - It follows the trend of other oils in the short term. Waiting for the January USDA report is recommended [1] Rapeseed Oil - Recent news has brought a large rebound to the rapeseed - oil price and the January - May spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent marginal loosening of the fundamentals. A rebound in sentiment is expected to subside, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [1] Cotton - There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct - subsidy prices and cotton - planting areas, the intention of next year's cotton - planting area, weather during the planting period, and the peak - season demand from March to April [1] Sugar - Currently, there is a global sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, the cost support below is strong, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1] Corn - The progress of grassroots grain sales of corn is relatively fast. Currently, the inventory levels at ports and downstream are still low, and most traders have not started strategic inventory building. It is expected that the spot price will remain strong in the short term under the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches, and the futures price is expected to have limited回调 and remain strong and fluctuate later [1] Soybean Meal - Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA report and the manifestation of Brazil's harvest selling pressure on CNF premiums. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak. In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported - soybean cargo rights will bring a domestic supply - structure problem, which supports the M03 contract. The M03 - M05 spread is still expected to be in a positive - arbitrage situation in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in customs policies, imported - soybean auctions, and targeted policies [1] Pulp - Pulp futures have recently been pulled by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, with large fluctuations. A wait - and - see approach for single - side trading is recommended, and a January - May reverse - arbitrage strategy can be considered for the spread [1] Logs - Log futures have declined due to the decline in overseas quotes and spot prices. The pressure on the 01 contract is large as it approaches the delivery month, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Hogs - The spot price has gradually stabilized recently. Supported by demand and with the unsold weight of slaughtered hogs still remaining, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the conflict between the US and Venezuela. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, there are overseas arrivals, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand and operation rate have weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production, further intensifying the supply - demand surplus, and the market expectation is weak [1] Fuel Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has sanctioned Venezuelan oil exports [1] Asphalt - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma - Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1] Natural Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the basis is at a low level, and the middle - stream inventory may tend to accumulate [1] BR Rubber - The futures positions have decreased, and the price increase has slowed down. The listing prices of BD/BR have shifted up, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has gradually recovered. Butadiene rubber maintains high - operation and high - inventory operation, and the spot trading has weakened with general order demand [1] PTA - The PX price is strong, and the floating spread has strengthened. The PTA plants generally maintain a high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Polyester pre - holiday stock - building and sales have improved. The new polyester plants' commissioning has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and PTA consumption remains high [1] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - It is reported that two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to shut down next month due to poor efficiency. During the continuous decline of ethylene glycol, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. Currently, the downstream operation rate of polyester remains above 91%, the demand performance slightly exceeds expectations, and the recent overall polyester sales are relatively high [1] Short - Fiber - The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - The Asian styrene price rebounded briefly after continuous monthly declines, mainly driven by supply - side contraction. Many plants have reduced production or shut down due to maintenance or poor economics. The demand for polymer downstream products such as PS and ABS remains weak. The warming of the commodity - market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] Urea - The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upside space. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1] PE - There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is high, the crude - oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. There is a risk of oil - price increase due to the US - Venezuela conflict [1] PVC - In 2026, there will be less global new production, and the future expectation is optimistic. There will be fewer subsequent maintenance activities, new production capacity will be released, and the supply pressure will increase. The demand has weakened, and orders are poor [1] LPG - The January CP has risen more than expected, providing strong cost - side support for imported gas. The geopolitical conflicts between the US and Venezuela and in the Middle East have intensified, and the short - term risk premium has increased. The EIA weekly C3 inventory has continued to accumulate, and overseas demand has slowed down periodically. Domestic PDH maintains high - operation and deep - loss operation, with only the rigid demand for civil combustion, and there is overseas olefin - blending demand for oil [1] Group 9: Shipping Container Shipping (European Route) - The price increase in December did not meet expectations, the expectation of peak - season price increase was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December was relatively loose [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear overall industry investment ratings are provided, but specific investment suggestions for various products are given, such as "bullish" for PVC, "bearish" for container shipping on the European line, and "suggested to buy on dips" for some metals [1] Core Views - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks. Commodities show diverse trends, with some metals like nickel and stainless steel expected to be strong, and agricultural products and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand and price trends [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index has further risen, with increased trading volume, positive market sentiment, and liquidity. It has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term [1] - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Metals - **Copper**: Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the continuous premium of US copper have led to a further increase in copper prices. There is a short - term adjustment risk, but the upward trend is expected to remain [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, with limited industrial drivers, so the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short - term. The National Development and Reform Commission's policies on resource - constrained industries may affect the price of alumina, which has rebounded from an oversold state [1] - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center moving up. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, but market sentiment is volatile, so the zinc price will fluctuate [1] - **Nickel**: Due to the expected reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 and concerns about supply, the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly, and it may remain strong in the short - term. Short - term low - buying is recommended, but over - chasing high is not advisable [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, and the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased. Steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - **Tin**: The initiative of the non - ferrous tin industry branch to guide the price back to the normal range has pressured the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there is still a possibility of supply fermentation. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities near the support level after a short - term correction [1] - **Precious Metals**: After a sharp adjustment, precious metals may gradually stabilize and enter a high - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities for gold in the follow - up [1] - **Platinum and Palladium**: After two consecutive daily limit drops, the futures - spot divergence has improved, and the premium over the foreign market has narrowed. In the short - term, they are expected to enter a range - bound shock. In the long - term, platinum can still be bought on dips or use the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [1] Energy - Chemical Products - **Polysilicon and Silicone**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices but a low willingness to deliver, and short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The long - short positions in the futures - spot arbitrage can take rolling profits. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward potential [1] - **Black Metals**: The black metal market is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. The current direct demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is accumulating, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the level of the fourth - round cut and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the price - cut implementation period [1] - **Palm Oil**: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for the January USDA report [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recent news has led to a significant rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent weakening fundamentals. It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and waiting and seeing is recommended [1] - **Cotton**: The domestic new crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a state of "supported but without a driver" [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1] - **Corn**: The grass - roots grain sales progress of corn is fast, and the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low. Most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the mid - downstream restocking demand [1] - **Soybeans**: The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is beneficial to the near - month contracts and the long - short arbitrage. The US soybean exports are weak, and the South American weather has no obvious speculation drivers [1] - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures are affected by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the 1 - 5 inverse spread [1] - **Log Fibreboard**: Affected by the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports affect the price [1] - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short - term. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - **BR Rubber**: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may show a cumulative trend [1] - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device maintains a high load, the polyester pre - holiday inventory and sales have improved, and the new polyester device has been put into production, maintaining a high consumption of PTA [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production next month. After a continuous decline, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. The downstream polyester start - up rate is high, and the overall sales are high [1] - **Styrene**: The price of Asian styrene has rebounded briefly after continuous decline, mainly due to supply - side contraction. The demand for polymer downstream products is weak, but the warming of the commodity market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] - **PE**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is high, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand has weakened, the crude oil price has decreased, and the market expectation is weak in 2026 [1] - **PP**: The number of overhauls is small, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected, but the high price of propylene monomers and the rising crude oil price provide strong cost support [1] - **PVC**: The global production capacity will be less in 2026, and the future is expected to reach the bottom of the cycle. There will be less subsequent overhauls, new production capacity will be released, supply pressure will increase, and demand will weaken [1] - **Caustic Soda**: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating load is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong, with a price - cut pressure [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental loosening logic. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded, the northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure [1] Others - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December, so it is bearish [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Piglets, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, MEG, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene, Ethylene, Propylene Oxide, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Views - The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term after breaking through the previous shock range, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and policy factors. For example, nickel and stainless - steel prices are influenced by Indonesian policies, and tin prices are affected by industry initiatives and geopolitical situations [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect prices. For instance, BR rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, and PTA benefits from strong PX prices and high polyester consumption [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as production expectations, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. For example, palm oil has a bearish outlook due to supply expectations, and cotton is in a state of "supported but no drive" [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index and Bonds - Stock Index: The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition. The index broke through the previous shock range and is expected to remain strong in the short - term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: The industrial situation is weak, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, resulting in high - level oscillations [1]. - Aluminum: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the price remains low in the short - term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and the negative factors have basically been realized. The price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - Nickel: Global nickel inventory is high, but supply concerns have led to a recent sharp rebound in Shanghai nickel. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material price has stabilized, the social inventory has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry initiative, the price oscillates weakly in the short - term. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - Gold: After reaching a record high, it may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to strong US economic data and weakened interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Platinum: The domestic futures price has a large premium over the spot and foreign markets, and the market is expected to be volatile. Rational participation is recommended [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - Bitumen: It follows crude oil in the short - term. The supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: The transaction has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong due to rumors of a factory shutdown [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device operates at a high load, and the polyester consumption is high [1]. - MEG: Supply - side news has stimulated a rebound, and the polyester downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The cost has some support, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but the inventory is high [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Rebound selling is recommended [1]. - Cotton: It is currently in a state of "supported but no drive". Attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, and weather conditions in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1]. - Piglets: Affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with limited decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: There is a risk of selling pressure due to high - yield expectations, and the price is affected by reserve rumors [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, unilateral investment is recommended to be on the sidelines, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered [1]. - Logs: Affected by external quotes and spot price declines, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pigs: The supply is yet to be fully released, and the price is affected by demand support and inventory [1].