【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 11 日 铜：库存持续增加，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,600 | 0.26% | 78590 | -0.01% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,682 | 0.23% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 99,231 | -63,363 | 181,068 | -12,931 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 18,905 | -19,293 | 280,000 | 128 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 21,729 | 393 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 108,100 | 975 | 37.88% | 2.18% | | ...

印度矿业部长：我们必须努力到2030年将铝和铜的产量翻一番。 ...

受益于油价下跌和需求稳定回升，航空公司经营利润有望迎来改善。当地时间6月2日，国际航协最新发 布的航空公司财务展望显示，预计2025年全球航空业净利润率为3.7%，高于2024年的3.4%和此前预测 的3.6%。国际航协理事长威利.沃尔什表示，航空燃油价格下降将成为推动航空业净利润率提升的最大 利好。 同时，国际航协还提到，预计2025年SAF(可持续航空燃料)产量将达到200万吨，较2024年的100万吨实 现翻倍。但截至目前，SAF使用量仅占航空燃料使用量的0.7%。若要满足航空业2050年实现净零碳排放 的目标，仍需大幅提升可持续航空燃料产量。 燃油附加费下调 为应对航油价格波动，航企往往通过优化运力投放、加强市场营销、提升客座率等方式提高单位收益水 平。同时，国内民航业的燃油附加费机制也能够为航空公司抵消部分航油波动风险。 根据国家发展改革委和民航局关于调整民航国内航线旅客运输燃油附加与航空煤油价格联动机制基础油 价的通知，自2015年3月以来，我国收取民航国内航线旅客运输燃油附加依据的航空煤油基础价格，提 高到每吨5000元。即国内航空煤油综合采购成本超过每吨5000元时，航空运输企业方可按照联动机 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q1 2025 reached $114.8 million, a year-over-year increase of $32.9 million, translating to approximately 40% growth [10][18] - Adjusted for voluntary product withdrawals, revenues would have been $118.6 million, representing approximately 45% year-over-year growth [10][18] - Adjusted net income grew by 87% year-over-year to $33.3 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 81% to $47.9 million [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The increase in total revenue is primarily attributed to higher sales of Ascentive, reflecting increased acceptance and utilization by physicians, payers, and patients [19] - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $61.1 million, with a gross margin of 53.2%, up from 47.8% in Q1 2024, driven by a favorable mix of higher margin IG sales [19][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand for commercial products, particularly BIVIGAM and Ascentive, has consistently exceeded prior supply capabilities, with new patient starts continuing to grow [12][13] - The company anticipates significant sequential operating cash flow growth throughout 2025, supported by a strong balance sheet with cash and receivables totaling $171 million at the end of Q1 2025 [13][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on advancing its R&D platform and optimizing production capabilities, particularly with the recent FDA approval of the yield enhancement production process, expected to provide 20% more bulk IG from the same plasma volumes [8][9] - A stock repurchase program has been authorized, allowing the company to buy back up to $500 million of its common stock, reflecting confidence in its financial position and commitment to shareholder value [14][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to achieve sustainable revenue and earnings growth, driven by a robust U.S.-based supply chain and favorable market conditions [23][24] - The company has raised its revenue guidance for 2025 to $500 million or more and for 2026 to $625 million or more, reflecting ongoing commercial momentum and the impact of the yield enhancement process [11][12] Other Important Information - The company has successfully reduced its cost of debt through a recent debt reorganization, which is expected to enhance its capital structure and financial flexibility [13][22] - The company remains insulated from government price negotiations affecting other sectors of the pharmaceutical industry, which supports its strong reimbursement profile [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance and FDA Clearance - Inquiry about the guidance increase and the timeline for revenue contribution from the yield enhancement process [29] - Management confirmed that three conformance lots were manufactured for FDA approval and expressed confidence in releasing these lots into the market [30][31] Question: Demand Generation and Capital Allocation - Questions regarding backlog for Ascentive and capital allocation priorities [35][36] - Management indicated that operational expenses are expected to normalize and that cash generation will support debt repayment, R&D funding, and stock repurchases [38][41] Question: Supply Agreements and Donor Retention - Inquiry about the contribution of new supply agreements to plasma sourcing and donor retention strategies [47][52] - Management reported that all new centers are contributing to plasma supply and that donor retention strategies are effective [48][52] Question: Patient Queue and HEOR Data - Questions about managing the patient queue and the status of health economic outcome data [57][62] - Management stated that demand trends are strong and that they expect to publish HEOR data by year-end to support product access [63][64] Question: Voluntary Product Withdrawals and IP Extension - Inquiry about the reasons for voluntary product withdrawals and the potential for extending IP [65][72] - Management clarified that the withdrawals were due to known adverse events and expressed confidence in the defensibility of their IP position [66][72]

公司发布2024 年年报：全年实现营收655.56 亿元，同比+7.01%；实现归母净利润33.86 亿元，同比 +13.71%；实现扣非净利润35.32 亿元，同比+18.25%。 其中，24Q4 实现营收195.11 亿元，环比+11.41%；实现归母净利润7.43 亿元，环比-17.50%；实现扣非 净利润9.14 亿元，环比-3.55%。公司于24Q4计提了约2 亿元资产减值损失，同时管理费用环比也有明显 提升，使得净利润环比有所下降。 公司发布2025 年一季报：实现营收148.59 亿元，同比+12.88%，环比-23.84%；实现归母净利润10.38 亿 元，同比+32.65%，环比+39.79%；实现扣非净利润12.68 亿元，同比+71.13%，环比+38.76%。公司于 25Q1 计提了约2.3 亿元非经常性项目损失，主要是来自于冶炼厂套期保值的浮动盈亏。 核心产品产销量数据：2024 年，矿产金产量约18.35 吨，同比-2.86%，销量约18.09 吨，同比-0.97%， 库存约2.94 吨，同比+9.57%。2024 年，冶炼金产量约37.95 吨，同比-7.14%，销量约37.78 ...