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巨变!全球市场下半年剧本来了
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-04 12:15
Group 1 - The article highlights the finalization of tariffs by the Trump administration, eliminating a major source of uncertainty in the market, but warns of the potential negative impact on the global economy due to high tariffs and weak employment data [3][6]. - Nomura's report identifies two negative catalysts: the finalized tariffs that exceeded expectations and the unexpectedly weak U.S. non-farm payroll report for July, which could trigger profit-taking and position adjustments in the market [4][11]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. has risen from 16.3% to 17.5%, with varying impacts on different economies, such as the EU, South Korea, and Japan receiving a 15% tariff rate, while India faces a 25% tariff, significantly higher than the expected range [7][8]. Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for July showed only 73,000 new jobs added, far below the expected 120,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.248%, the highest since October 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [11]. - There has been a reversal in capital flows, with foreign investors turning net sellers of emerging Asian stocks after seven weeks of inflows, primarily driven by the negative impact of high tariffs on the Indian market [12][13]. - Earnings expectations for Asian markets are weakening, with a 1.2% downward adjustment in consensus earnings for FY25E among 43% of MSCI Asia (excluding Japan) companies, while U.S. earnings show resilience with a 10.3% year-over-year growth rate for the second quarter [16].
金价冲高遇阻,当前为震荡偏空格局?原油未跌破关键支撑,如何调整仓位以抓住机会?点击查看最新分析!
news flash· 2025-07-17 13:14
Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, indicating a potential shift towards a bearish trend as prices face resistance after a recent surge [1] - It highlights the current market conditions for oil, noting that it has not breached key support levels, which may present opportunities for strategic adjustments in positions [1]