近 楼市量价止跌回稳进度如何 商业地产：稳地产促消费，消费+地产助力房企穿越周期 2025 展望：二手房市场量升价稳，新房市场各指标磨底 修复 投资建议：整体看来，2024 年 924 新政的动能正逐步减 [Table_Summary] 本周观点：香港楼市回暖背后，哪些因素在起作用？ ①香港楼市企稳的必要条件：2024 年 2 月香港全面"撤辣"。然而"撤 辣"政策效果并非立竿见影，市场在经过 15 个月的消化后，在 2025 年 中期显现楼市量价企稳的复苏态势，交易成本的下降仅为香港楼市复苏 的必要条件，但楼市的复苏仍需结合贷款成本的下降；②香港楼市企稳 的充分条件：受港元汇率走强影响，按揭市场方面香港金管局向市场注 入流动性，致 1 个月 HIBOR（香港银行同业拆息）从 3.98%跌至 0.57%。 由于香港房贷普遍采用"H 按"（HIBOR+1.3%），房贷利率一度降至 2%左 右，此外美联储降息为香港楼市创造了宽松的金融环境。③香港楼市企 稳的预期改善："以租养贷"理论上可行，香港楼市金融属性再激活。 弱，楼市信心仍待提振，在此背景下更多楼市政策值得期 本周地产：A 股与港股跑输/跑赢大盘。 【东北 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment, with predictions of a shift from investment-driven to residential-focused dynamics, leading to a decline in property prices and sales [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since March 2023, the domestic real estate market has entered a new adjustment phase, characterized by a simultaneous decline in both transaction volume and prices [1] - In the first nine months of 2023, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, totaling 84,806 million square meters, while sales revenue fell by 4.6% to 89,070 billion [1] - The average selling price of residential properties has been on a downward trend, with a notable drop of over 16% compared to the peak at the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Challenges for Homeowners - Homeowners with multiple properties are facing significant challenges due to the ongoing market adjustments [2] - Challenge 1: Continuous depreciation of property value, with some areas in cities like Shanghai seeing declines of up to 15% from historical highs [5] - Challenge 2: Difficulty in liquidating properties, as the number of second-hand homes listed surged by 27.94% month-on-month, reaching 618,900 units by the end of September [7] - Challenge 3: Increasing holding costs, including higher property fees and maintenance costs, which are becoming burdensome for owners of multiple properties [8] - Challenge 4: The "rent-to-pay mortgage" model is becoming unsustainable, as rental income may not cover mortgage payments, leading to potential losses [9]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong real estate market is stabilizing due to policy easing, declining interest rates, and talent attraction initiatives [1] - The full removal of additional stamp duties and other transaction barriers is expected in February 2024, alongside anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [1] - The 1-month HIBOR has dropped significantly from 4.07% to 0.58%, and new mortgage rates have fallen below 3.5%, creating a "rent-to-mortgage" effect as rental yields exceed mortgage rates [1] - Over 220,000 new residents have been attracted to Hong Kong through talent introduction programs, contributing to housing demand [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's National Enterprises ETF (159519) tracks the mainland state-owned enterprises index (H11153), which includes a diverse range of state-owned companies from various economic sectors [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of publicly listed state-owned enterprises in mainland China, showcasing strong representativeness and stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in second-hand housing prices in Guangzhou presents a significant investment opportunity, as prices have dropped more than expected, making properties more affordable and potentially profitable for rental income [1][6]. Price Decline - According to Beike data, the average price of second-hand homes has decreased from 29,300 yuan per square meter to 20,900 yuan per square meter, representing a decline of 28.67% [1]. - A specific example includes a three-bedroom property in Dongpu, which sold for 1.1 million yuan, a 54.70% reduction from a similar property that sold for 2.395 million yuan in 2021 [1]. Rental Income Potential - The rental income for the aforementioned property is estimated at 2,600 yuan per month, leading to an annual rental income of 31,200 yuan, resulting in a rental yield of 2.84% [2]. - Some properties in Guangzhou have rental yields that can cover mortgage payments, allowing for a "rent-to-own" scenario where rental income offsets loan costs [2][3]. Market Analysis - In the Zhujiang New Town area, approximately 22.95% of analyzed properties have rental yields exceeding 3%, indicating potential for profitable investments [3]. - The financial district shows an average rental yield of 1.98%, but specific properties can achieve yields above 3%, demonstrating variability in investment potential across different areas [3][4]. Investment Sentiment - The current market conditions suggest that more buyers may shift their focus from speculative price increases to securing properties that can generate rental income, leading to a potential change in buyer behavior [6].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with property prices declining sharply, particularly in first-tier cities, leading to substantial financial losses for investors who relied on real estate for wealth accumulation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Property prices in Shanghai have dropped from over 90,000 yuan per square meter to over 60,000 yuan, representing a decline of more than 30% [1]. - The decline in property values is not limited to second and third-tier cities; even core areas of first-tier cities are beginning to show signs of price correction [3]. Group 2: Investor Challenges - Investors holding multiple properties are facing four major challenges: continuous asset depreciation, liquidity issues, unsustainable rental income, and rising holding costs [1][4][6][10]. - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale has surged, with Beijing exceeding 147,000 listings and Shanghai reaching 170,000, complicating the ability to liquidate assets [6]. Group 3: Financial Strain - The "rent-to-pay mortgage" model is failing as rental incomes are plummeting; for instance, a landlord in Shanghai saw monthly rental income drop from 6,500 yuan to 4,800 yuan, resulting in a monthly loss of 2,000 yuan [8]. - Holding costs for properties are increasing due to rising expenses such as property management fees and potential property taxes, which are expected to expand to more cities in the near future [10][11]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to consider selling excess properties at lower prices while the market still has some activity, as this may be the only viable option to avoid deeper financial troubles [13].

Core Insights - The Wuhan real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with a 12.35% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions in the first half of 2025, totaling 46,001 units [1] - The trend of younger buyers utilizing "rent-to-own" strategies is becoming prevalent in areas like Guanggu and Nanhu [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Wuhan Real Estate Brokerage and Leasing Association reported a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a recovery in market confidence [1] - The average monthly mortgage for buying a home is now 4,800 yuan, compared to 2,800 yuan for renting, highlighting the financial incentives for purchasing property [1] Group 2: Buyer Demographics and Preferences - The customer base is shifting towards first-time buyers and those seeking improved living conditions, with a preference for 105-120 square meter newly renovated three-bedroom apartments [2] - The demand for properties near good schools is high, with 40% of buyers looking to upgrade their homes [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market has transitioned from a "price war" to a "service war," driven by various factors including policy incentives and the professionalization of real estate agents [2] - The "Han Nine Policies" have lowered transaction barriers through subsidies and tax benefits, contributing to increased market activity [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trend of individuals from Shenzhen purchasing homes in their hometowns as a means of financial security and emotional comfort, while also highlighting the challenges and regrets associated with such decisions. Group 1: Motivations for Buying Homes in Hometowns - Many individuals view buying a home in their hometown as a fallback option when they can no longer sustain their life in Shenzhen [3][5] - The decision to buy a home is often influenced by family expectations and societal pressures, leading to a sense of obligation [4][22] - For some, owning a home in their hometown serves as a status symbol, reflecting their success in Shenzhen [22][24] Group 2: Financial Implications and Challenges - The financial burden of home loans can become overwhelming, especially when individuals are unable to live in the purchased homes [11][13] - Rising living costs in Shenzhen, coupled with the financial obligations of a home in the hometown, create significant stress for many [12][30] - Individuals often find themselves unable to sell their hometown properties due to declining prices, leading to further financial strain [41][42] Group 3: Emotional and Psychological Aspects - Owning a home is seen as a source of emotional security, providing a sense of belonging and stability [39][60] - The experience of purchasing a home can lead to feelings of regret when individuals realize the impracticality of their decisions [31][34] - The desire for a personal space and the emotional attachment to the idea of home play a significant role in the decision-making process [39][56] Group 4: Future Considerations - Many individuals express a desire to eventually return to their hometowns but face challenges in finding suitable employment opportunities [58][59] - The potential for rental income or future resale value is often considered when purchasing a home in the hometown [56][61] - The article suggests that careful consideration of future financial and personal circumstances is crucial before making such significant investments [25][29]