证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 中药行业周报 关注中报业绩超预期标的 核心要点： ❑ 市场表现：上周中药Ⅱ上涨 2.86%，涨幅居医药二级子板块之首 根据 wind 数据，上周（2025.08.17-2025.08.23）医药生物报收 9123.74 点，上涨 1.05%；中药Ⅱ报收 6973.18 点，上涨 2.86%；化学制药报收 14586.82 点，上涨 0.29%；生物制品报收 7137.5 点，上涨 2.22%；医药商业报收 5318.71 点，上涨 1.93%；医疗器械报收 7180.07 点，上涨 2.37%；医疗服务报收 6818.58 点，下跌 1.58%。医药二级子板块除医疗服务外，其他板块均上涨，其中，中药涨幅最 大。 从公司表现来看，根据 wind 数据，表现居前的公司有：ST 香雪、仁和药业、 天目药业、方盛制药、万邦德；表现靠后的公司有：维康药业、新光药业、九 芝堂、广誉远、启迪药业。 ❑ 估值：上周中药板块 PE（ttm）为 30.11X，PB（lf）为 2.5X 根据 wind 数据，上周中药 PE（ttm）为 30.11X，环比上升 ...

作为新质生产力的重要代表和载体，平台经济在我国发展全局中的地位和作用日益凸显，为扩大内需和 就业创业提供了新空间，为经济高质量发展提供了新引擎。与此同时，依托独有的网络效应、规模效应 以及网络生态系统的强大黏性，互联网平台利用市场优势地位实施的一些价格行为受到社会广泛关注。 日前，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局、国家网信办发布《互联网平台价格行为规则（征求意见稿）》 （以下简称《行为规则》），公开征求社会意见。这一文件将成为维护线上市场秩序，推动平台经济高 质量发展的重要举措。 加强消费者权益保护，规范平台免密支付与自动续费业务。对于消费者价格权益保护，《行为规则》明 确要求，平台经营者、平台内经营者如果提供免密支付服务、自动续费和自动扣款、搭售额外服务或商 品的，应当以显著方式向消费者展示相关选项，并提供便捷的取消途径，可谓"小切口"推动"大治理"。 同时，鼓励平台经营者建立价格争议在线解决机制、商品质量承诺和担保制度，督促平台内经营者履行 商品质量和服务义务，帮助化解消费纠纷。 需要强调的是，《行为规则》是根据现行法律法规制定的，在监管制度、监管要求上保持了稳定性，重 点是保护经营者和消费者合法权益，不会影 ...

Group 1: Capacity Reduction Strategy - The "anti-involution" price governance aims for three goals: short-term regulation of price wars, medium-term capacity reduction, and long-term price recovery, particularly PPI[1] - Capacity reduction can be categorized into two types: shutdown and production limitation, and policy-guided capacity reduction[1] - The current trend favors policy-guided capacity reduction over shutdowns, as the demand side lacks strong stimulus policies[1] Group 2: Price Recovery Expectations - PPI is expected to take 11-12 months to turn positive, potentially reaching around 1.9% by September 2026 under neutral assumptions[1] - Three scenarios for PPI recovery are outlined: optimistic (3.86%), neutral (1.92%), and pessimistic (0.9%) by September 2026, depending on the strength of supply-side capacity reduction[3] - The GDP deflator's recovery is more challenging than PPI due to the service sector's larger weight, with the second industry experiencing a -3.06% deflation in Q2 2024[3] Group 3: Market Clearing Mechanism - The market clearing mechanism is essential for addressing capacity surplus, requiring timely price adjustments and responsive supply behavior[22] - Current obstacles include government subsidies allowing firms to sell below cost, leading to persistent losses and market inefficiencies[24] - Previous efforts to clear "zombie enterprises" in coal and steel sectors have shown significant results, with 115 million tons of capacity addressed[24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [4] Core Views - The market performance shows that the Chinese medicine sector has increased by 1.39% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector continues its upward trend, with Chinese medicine lagging behind [3][6] - The price governance of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) is being implemented across multiple regions, with various local health insurance bureaus issuing notifications regarding price risk management for certain TCM products [9] - The valuation metrics for the Chinese medicine sector indicate a PE (ttm) of 28.69X, which has increased by 0.41X week-on-week, and a PB (lf) of 2.37X, which has also risen by 0.03X week-on-week [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector reported a closing index of 6638.77 points, reflecting a 1.39% increase, while the overall pharmaceutical index closed at 8580.75 points, up by 1.9% [6][22] - The performance of individual companies within the sector varied, with notable gainers including Zhendong Pharmaceutical and Yabao Pharmaceutical, while Wanbangde and Weikang Pharmaceutical showed declines [6][22] Valuation - The current PE (ttm) for the Chinese medicine sector is 28.69X, with a one-year maximum of 30.13X and a minimum of 22.58X, placing it at the 32.65% percentile since 2013 [7] - The PB (lf) stands at 2.37X, with a one-year maximum of 2.65X and a minimum of 1.99X, positioning it at the 7.04% percentile since 2013 [7] Price Governance - Recent notifications from various local health insurance bureaus indicate a focus on price governance for TCM, with specific measures being taken in regions such as Ningxia and Jilin [9] - The governance aims to address price risks associated with TCM products, particularly those that exceed local minimum treatment costs [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform [11][12] - Specific recommendations include companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products, as well as those less affected by centralized procurement [12]

Core Viewpoint - The revision of the Price Law is timely and aims to enhance the legal framework for price governance in response to evolving market conditions and regulatory practices [2][3][6] Group 1: Legislative Background - The Price Law, implemented in 1998, has provided essential legal support for the healthy development of the economy and society, necessitating updates to address new challenges and improve governance tools [2][3] - The revision aims to align with the construction of a high-level socialist market economy and improve the macroeconomic governance system [2] Group 2: Government Pricing System - The revision maintains the existing framework of the Price Law while focusing on widely agreed-upon content to enhance legislative efficiency [2][3] - The government pricing system is refined to allow for the establishment of pricing mechanisms rather than fixed price levels, enabling more flexible responses to market supply and demand [3] Group 3: Regulation of Unfair Pricing Practices - The revision emphasizes the need for improved regulation of market prices to ensure orderly price formation and address issues like price dumping, price gouging, and price collusion [4][5] - New provisions are introduced to regulate unfair pricing behaviors in the context of the digital economy, addressing the use of data and algorithms in pricing strategies [4][5] Group 4: Addressing "Involution" Competition - The revision expands the scope of low-price dumping regulations to include services and third-party pricing rules, providing legal support for combating "involution" competition [5][6] - The proposed changes reflect the commitment to create a fairer and more dynamic market environment while maintaining market order and stimulating innovation [6]

Group 1: Tax System Reform and Economic Impact - The VAT has become the largest tax type in China, maintaining a stable share of 35-40% since 2016, with a compound growth rate of -7.4% in 2022, 4.5% in 2023, and 17.0% in 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in growth[3] - In 2024, VAT revenue accounted for 49.5% of local fiscal revenue, the highest in history, reflecting the declining support of land finance for local governments[3] - The average share of VAT revenue in local fiscal income from 2016 to 2022 was 45.3%, increasing to over 49% from 2023, coinciding with a period of negative domestic price levels[3] Group 2: Price Control and Market Dynamics - The current fiscal and tax system may create unreasonable incentives for local governments to stimulate production, which could hinder the establishment of a unified national market[3] - Shifting the consumption tax collection point from production to sales could enhance local governments' focus on consumption, as local sales would directly impact their tax revenue[3] - Optimizing the fiscal and tax system can reduce local governments' supply impulses and increase their emphasis on consumption, potentially alleviating price pressures from both supply and demand sides[3] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession alongside unexpected monetary policies from major economies[3]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Overweight" rating, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the Chinese medicine sector [6]. Core Insights - The Chinese medicine sector saw a 1.08% increase last week, with the overall pharmaceutical sector experiencing a general upward trend [2]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.86X, reflecting a slight increase, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 2.31X, also showing a minor rise [3]. - The market for Chinese medicinal materials is currently in a low season, with a slight decline in price indices due to increased rainfall in southern regions [4]. - As of July 12, 2025, three out of five listed companies in the Chinese medicine industry reported positive net profit growth, with the lowest growth rate at 24.3% [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Chinese medicine sector index closed at 6451.72 points, up 1.08% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical index rose by 1.82% [2][17]. Valuation - The PE ratio (ttm) for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.86X, up 0.29X week-on-week, with a one-year maximum of 30.13X and a minimum of 22.58X. The PB ratio (lf) is 2.31X, up 0.03X, with a one-year maximum of 2.65X and a minimum of 1.99X [3][19]. Industry Trends - The Chinese medicine sector is entering the mid-year reporting season, with a focus on performance metrics such as inventory and accounts receivable [5]. - The report highlights three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform, indicating potential growth areas within the sector [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong R&D capabilities and unique products, as well as those less affected by price collection policies. Specific companies highlighted are Zhaoli Pharmaceutical, Pizaihuang, and Shouxiangu [10].

Industry Overview - The Chinese medicine sector experienced a decline of 0.32% last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector showed mixed performance with a 1.4% increase in the pharmaceutical and biological index [3][4] - The performance of the Chinese medicine sector is relatively weak compared to other pharmaceutical sub-sectors, with chemical pharmaceuticals showing the best performance with a 3.53% increase [3][4] Company Performance - Top-performing companies in the Chinese medicine sector include Kanghui Pharmaceutical, Enwei Pharmaceutical, Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, and Zhendong Pharmaceutical [4] - Underperforming companies include Wanbangde, Longjin Retreat, Biological Valley, Guangyuyuan, and Jiu Zhitang [4] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Chinese medicine sector is 27.68X, reflecting a decrease of 0.1X week-on-week, with a one-year maximum of 30.13X and a minimum of 22.58X [5] - The price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 2.29X, down 0.01X from the previous week, with a one-year maximum of 2.65X and a minimum of 1.99X [5] - The current PE is at the 29.83% percentile since 2013, while the PB is at the 5.56% percentile during the same period [6] Raw Material Market - The market for raw Chinese medicinal materials is under pressure, with a total index price of 241.57 points, reflecting a 0.7% decrease week-on-week [7] - Among the twelve categories of medicinal materials, five categories saw price increases while seven experienced declines, with the plant leaf category showing the largest drop [7] Policy and Market Dynamics - The third batch of national collection for traditional Chinese medicine began implementation in April 2025, with at least 19 provinces releasing results [8] - The collection involves 20 product groups and 95 products, with 174 selected drugs, indicating a trend towards price rationalization in the sector [8] - There is a need for further optimization of selection rules due to insufficient completion rates in local collections [8] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting three main investment themes: price governance, consumption recovery, and state-owned enterprise reform [9][10][11] - Price governance focuses on the impact of collection and negotiation on drug prices, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies with strong R&D capabilities and unique products [9] - Consumption recovery is driven by macroeconomic improvement and aging population, favoring companies with brand and material advantages [10] - State-owned enterprise reform presents opportunities for performance improvement and efficiency gains in the Chinese medicine sector [11] - Recommended investment targets include Zoli Pharmaceutical, Pian Zai Huang, and Shou Xian Gu, which are expected to benefit from these trends [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese medicine sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies showing significant profit growth while facing challenges from high inventory and pricing pressures. The outlook for 2025 appears more optimistic due to easing macroeconomic factors and supportive policies [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw major indices rise, with the Chinese Medicine ETF (560080) increasing by 0.19% and trading volume exceeding 26 million yuan, indicating active trading [1]. - Among the 49 constituent stocks of the Chinese Medicine ETF, 24 reported positive net profit growth, representing approximately 49% of the total [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Notable profit growth was observed in companies such as Jilin Aodong (+260%), Jiaying Pharmaceutical (+197%), and Buchang Pharmaceutical (+170%) [3]. - The financial performance of several companies showed varied results, with Jilin Aodong reporting a 27.7% decline in revenue but a 259.8% increase in net profit [4]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The Chinese medicine industry is expected to face challenges in 2024 due to high baselines and inventory digestion, but a recovery is anticipated in 2025 as macroeconomic conditions improve [5]. - Policy support, including the March 2025 guidelines for enhancing Chinese medicine quality, is expected to stimulate innovation and improve market conditions [5][6]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The current valuation of the Chinese Medicine Index is at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.77, which is below the 74.1% threshold of the past decade, indicating a relatively low valuation [8]. - Investors are encouraged to consider the Chinese Medicine ETF (560080) for potential rebound opportunities in the market [10].

证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 18 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 中药行业周报 基层中医药覆盖面持续扩展，看好基层渗透率提升带来的需求增长 相关研究： 核心要点： ❑ 市场表现：上周中药Ⅱ上涨 0.8%，医药板块延续反弹态势 1. 《广东联盟中成药集采拟中 选结果公布，独家品种优势明显》 20250127 2. 《四成公司发布业绩预告， 2024行业业绩承压明显》 20250210 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 24/02 24/05 24/08 24/11 沪深300_累计 中药_累计 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -2 | -6 | -17 | | 绝对收益 | 1 | -4 | -4 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：许雯 证书编号：S0500517110001 Tel：(8621) 50293534 Email：xw3315@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 上周（2025.02.10-2025.02 ...