长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-29 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝产业链周报 01 周度观点 资料来源：iFinD 长江期货有色产业服务中心 02 宏观经济指标 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2019/10/2 0 2020/10/2 0 2021/10/2 0 2022/10/2 0 2023/10/2 0 2024/10/2 0 2025/10/2 0 美国:国债收益率:10年-2年 日 % 美国国债收益率曲线:2年 日 % 美国国债收益率曲线:10年 日 % 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2021/10/19 2022/10/19 2023/10/19 2024/10/19 2025/10/19 美国:美元指数 日 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2021/12/30 2022/12/30 2023/12/30 2024/12/30 美国:国债收益率:10年 美国:国债实际收益率:10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting a positive outlook due to macroeconomic sentiment and policy resonance leading to rising metal prices [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the weakening US dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand dynamics have significantly boosted precious metal prices, with gold reaching 1016 CNY per gram (+3.71% week-on-week), silver at 18308 CNY per kilogram (+19.07%), platinum at 2534.7 USD per ounce (+29.37%), and palladium at 2060.5 USD per ounce (+27.03%) [3]. - The report expresses a long-term bullish view on precious metals, citing sustained demand from central banks and industrial applications, particularly for silver, which has seen a historical price surge due to supply shortages and increased ETF demand [3]. - The report notes that the copper smelting profit margins are expected to be impacted by an oversupply of smelting capacity, prompting the government to encourage mergers and acquisitions to enhance bargaining power for imported copper concentrates [4]. - The report discusses the encouragement from the National Development and Reform Commission for large-scale mergers in the alumina industry, which has led to a slight rebound in alumina prices despite high inventory levels and anticipated price declines due to lower raw material costs [5]. - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high, indicating potential for aluminum price elasticity and dividends, with expectations of sustained high profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector [6][11]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Precious metals have seen significant price increases due to a combination of a weaker dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand conditions [3]. - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold and silver prices, driven by investment demand and industrial applications [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report highlights the government's push for consolidation in the alumina sector, which may stabilize prices despite current oversupply conditions [5]. - The copper-aluminum price ratio indicates strong potential for aluminum price increases, supported by low global inventories and production constraints [6][11]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper smelting sector faces challenges due to excess capacity, leading to calls for industry consolidation to improve competitiveness [4]. Precious Metals - The report recommends investment in precious metal stocks, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as silver and copper stocks, reflecting a positive outlook for these sectors [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company is enhancing its performance through mergers and acquisitions, cost reduction, and efficiency improvements in response to intensified competition in the dairy industry [2][3]. Acquisition Details - On November 29, the company announced plans to acquire 40% of Qinghai Xiaoxiniu Biological Dairy Co., Ltd. for 500 million yuan, following a previous acquisition of 60% for 612 million yuan, totaling 1.112 billion yuan for both transactions [2][6][8]. - The acquisition process spanned over four years, with the first purchase completed in December 2021 [6][8]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 57.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.04%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 1.3 billion yuan, an improvement from a loss of 1.64 billion yuan in the same period last year [10]. - Total expenses for the first three quarters were 28.27 billion yuan, down approximately 12% from 32 billion yuan year-on-year [11]. Research and Development - The company increased its R&D expenditure to 1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.47% [12]. Market Position and Strategy - Xiaoxiniu, a company with regional characteristics, has established a strong brand loyalty and is expected to leverage the company's distribution channels to enhance sales in eastern China [8]. - The acquisition is anticipated to create a new production capacity structure in the western region, supporting overall sales growth [8].

Group 1: Trade Relations and Economic Policies - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced that it will take necessary measures to safeguard its rights in response to the U.S. unilateralism, including imposing special port fees on U.S. vessels [5][6] - Following the U.S. announcement of a 100% tariff on China, global financial markets experienced significant turmoil, with the Dow Jones dropping 878 points (1.90% decline) and the Nasdaq falling 3.56%, resulting in a loss of approximately $700 billion in market value within three minutes of the announcement [6][8] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month, with the gold reserves reaching 7.406 million ounces by the end of September, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4,000 ounces [6][7] Group 2: Housing and Urban Development - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, stated that efforts are underway to transform old houses into "good houses" through renovation, focusing on five key aspects: good standards, good design, good materials, good construction, and good maintenance [7][8] - The shift in housing policy indicates a strategic transition towards improving existing urban infrastructure rather than merely expanding new developments, emphasizing quality of living over quantity [8] Group 3: Manufacturing and Economic Development - A joint implementation plan for promoting service-oriented manufacturing innovation from 2025 to 2028 has been released by seven government departments, aiming to enhance the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern services [9][10] - The plan outlines a roadmap for the next four years, with goals to strengthen the role of service-oriented manufacturing in high-quality development, including the establishment of 20 standards, 50 leading brands, and 100 innovation hubs by 2028 [10] Group 4: Tax Policies and Corporate Restructuring - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration released guidelines on tax incentives for corporate mergers and acquisitions, aimed at reducing compliance costs and clarifying applicable policies for various types of restructuring [11] - The guidelines expand the scope of applicable entities to include "public institutions" and introduce clearer execution timelines, enhancing the accessibility of tax policies for businesses undergoing restructuring [11] Group 5: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,387 billion by the end of September, marking an increase of $16.5 billion (0.5%) from the end of August, the highest level since December 2015 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The independent financial advisor, China Galaxy Securities, has conducted a special review of the proposed transaction by Zhongcheng Import and Export Co., Ltd. to acquire 100% equity of Zhongji Jiangsu Clean Energy Co., Ltd. through share issuance and fundraising, concluding that the transaction does not involve key industries supported for mergers and acquisitions by the government [1][2]. Group 1: Industry and Company Analysis - The target company, Zhongji Jiangsu, operates in the "Technology Promotion and Application Services" sector, which is not classified under key industries such as automotive, steel, cement, shipbuilding, electrolytic aluminum, rare earths, electronic information, pharmaceuticals, or agricultural industrialization [1][2]. - Zhongcheng Import and Export Co., Ltd. primarily engages in complete equipment export, engineering contracting, environmental technology, and composite material production, while Zhongji Jiangsu focuses on investment, development, and operation of energy storage projects for commercial users, indicating that the two companies do not operate in the same industry or along the same supply chain [2]. Group 2: Transaction Structure - The transaction will not result in a change of control for Zhongcheng Import and Export Co., Ltd., as the direct and indirect controlling shareholders remain the same post-transaction, thus it does not constitute a restructuring listing as per the relevant regulations [2][3]. - The transaction involves the issuance of shares by Zhongcheng Import and Export Co., Ltd. to acquire 100% equity of Zhongji Jiangsu, confirming that the transaction includes share issuance [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Compliance - As of the date of the review, there are no ongoing investigations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission against Zhongcheng Import and Export Co., Ltd., indicating compliance with regulatory requirements [3].

Group 1 - The transaction involves the acquisition of 99.4375% equity of Sanmenxia Aluminum by Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd from Hangzhou Jinjiang Group and other related parties [3][4] - Both the listed company and the target company are engaged in the aluminum smelting industry, with the listed company primarily producing aluminum liquid, aluminum ingots, and aluminum alloy products, while the target company focuses on alumina, electrolytic aluminum, caustic soda, and gallium [1][2] - The transaction is classified as a merger and acquisition within the same industry or upstream/downstream integration [2][3] Group 2 - The transaction constitutes a restructuring listing as the listed company has undergone a change in actual control within the last 36 months, with Mr. Dou Zhenggang becoming the actual controller [2][3] - The transaction involves the issuance of shares to acquire the equity of Sanmenxia Aluminum [4] - There are no ongoing investigations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission against the listed company as of the date of the review [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Hailan Huanyu Ocean Information Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment, along with raising supporting funds for this transaction [1]. Group 1: Industry and Company Overview - The industry involved in this transaction does not fall under the categories specified by the State Council and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for promoting mergers and acquisitions, but it is part of the "new generation information technology" sector supported by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1]. - The target company's main business includes marine monitoring radar products, radar networking comprehensive monitoring systems, and radar monitoring information services, which aligns it with the company's industry [2]. Group 2: Transaction Details - This transaction is classified as a horizontal merger since it involves companies within the same industry [2]. - The transaction will involve the issuance of shares, but it will not result in a change of control for the listed company, thus it does not constitute a restructuring listing [2]. - As of the date of this announcement, the company is not under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [2].

Core Viewpoint - The transaction involves Beijing Hailanxin Data Technology Co., Ltd. acquiring 100% equity of Hainan Hailanhuanyu Ocean Information Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, along with raising supporting funds from specific investors [1][2]. Group 1: Industry and Policy Compliance - The transaction does not fall under the categories of industries or enterprises supported for mergers and acquisitions as per the State Council and relevant ministries, but it is part of the "new generation information technology" sector, which is recognized for support in mergers and acquisitions [1]. - The independent financial advisor confirms that the transaction aligns with the regulatory guidelines for significant asset restructuring [1]. Group 2: Transaction Type and Structure - The main business of the target company involves radar monitoring products and services, which positions it within the same industry or upstream/downstream of the listed company, indicating that the transaction is a related merger and does not constitute a restructuring listing [2]. - The transaction involves the issuance of shares as part of the significant asset restructuring process [2]. - There are no ongoing investigations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission against the listed company as of the date of the advisory opinion [2].

Group 1 - The transaction involves the acquisition of 100% equity of Chengdu Xinchao Media Group Co., Ltd. by the listed company, Focus Media Information Technology Co., Ltd., through a combination of share issuance and cash payment [1][4] - The main business of the listed company is the development and operation of outdoor advertising in the life circle media sector, focusing on building media and cinema screen advertising [1][2] - The target company's primary business is also outdoor advertising, specializing in digital and print advertising services in residential communities [1][2] Group 2 - The independent financial advisor concluded that both the listed company and the target company belong to the advertising industry, and the transaction does not fall under the categories of industries supported for mergers and acquisitions by the State Council and relevant ministries [2][3] - The transaction type is classified as a horizontal or vertical merger within the same industry [3] - The transaction does not constitute a restructuring listing as there has been no change in the actual controller of the listed company in the past 36 months [3][4] Group 3 - The transaction involves the issuance of shares to 50 counterparties, including Chongqing JD Haijia E-commerce Co., Ltd., Zhang Jixue, and Baidu Online Network Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. [4] - As of the date of the review, the listed company is not under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [4]

Core Viewpoint - The transaction involves the acquisition of 100% equity of Chengdu Xinchao Media Group Co., Ltd. by Focus Media Information Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with independent financial advisor Huatai United Securities providing a review of the transaction's compliance with relevant regulations [1][2]. Group 1: Industry and Company Analysis - The main business of the listed company is the development and operation of outdoor advertising in the lifestyle media sector, focusing on elevator media and cinema screen advertising [1][2]. - The target company also operates in the outdoor advertising sector, specializing in digital and print advertising services in residential communities, indicating that both companies belong to the advertising industry [2][3]. - The independent financial advisor confirmed that the transaction does not fall under the categories of industries supported for mergers and acquisitions as outlined by the State Council and relevant ministries, such as automotive, steel, and pharmaceuticals [2][3]. Group 2: Transaction Details - The transaction type is classified as a merger within the same industry, as both the listed company and the target company operate in the advertising sector [3]. - The transaction does not constitute a restructuring listing, as there has been no change in the actual controller of the listed company within the past 36 months, maintaining Media Management Hong Kong Limited as the controlling shareholder [3][4]. - The transaction involves the issuance of shares to 50 counterparties, including Chongqing Jingdong Haijia E-commerce Co., Ltd., Zhang Jixue, and Baidu Online Network Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. [4].