格隆汇12月20日｜Clocktower首席策略师王凯文指出，当前美股呈现典型的经济周期末期特征：强劲的 企业盈利增长持续推动股价创新高，但市场远期估值已停止扩张。他认为，一旦市场对货币政策的预期 转向紧缩（利率上行），估值将面临压缩压力。基于此，他判断美股牛市或已进入"最后一程"，上半年 仍可能由盈利主导上涨，但下半年风险显著增大。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Since early September, both the equity and convertible bond markets have shown signs of "high - low switching", with the convertible bond market having more frequent style switches. The current market "high - low switching" may be a transition in the re - balancing process, and it is difficult to achieve a complete style switch. It is recommended to take profits on over - valued securities and wait for new opportunities from the internal rotation of the growth theme [8][15][17]. - The A - share market was weak this week, with major indices generally declining. Defensive sectors such as banks and coal performed well, while the technology growth sector continued to adjust. It is recommended to focus on the structural opportunities in defensive and pro - cyclical sectors [8]. - The convertible bond market declined following the equity market. Large - cap convertible bonds were more resilient, and the valuation structure was significantly differentiated. It is recommended to select sectors supported by the underlying stocks based on the rhythm of valuation compression and sector rotation [8]. - The supply in the primary market was stable this week, with 2 new bonds open for subscription and 9 companies updating their convertible bond issuance plans. Clause - related events were still frequent, and it is necessary to pay attention to the marginal impact of downward revision and redemption expectations on the valuation structure and trading rhythm [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Style "High - Low Switch", Waiting for New Opportunities - Since early September, the "high - low switching" in the equity and convertible bond markets has been evident from the turnover ratio. The convertible bond market's "high - low switching" is more frequent, which may be related to the relatively high overall valuation and limited allocation cost - effectiveness [15][17]. - The "high - low switching" may be a transitional form in the re - balancing process, and it is difficult to achieve a complete style switch. It is recommended to take profits on over - valued individual bonds and industries and pay attention to new opportunities from the internal rotation of the growth theme [19][20]. 3.2 Market Theme Weekly Review - This week, the trading - related themes in the equity market were strong, but there was no clear main line. Defensive sectors such as banks and coal performed well, while the technology growth sector continued to decline [22]. 3.3 Market Weekly Tracking 3.3.1 Main Indices Generally Declined, Defensive Sectors More Resilient - This week, the main A - share indices generally declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing some resilience. The CSI 300 and CSI 2000 performed slightly better than the CSI 500 and STAR 50 [24]. - The net outflow of main funds was volatile, indicating increased market divergence. Trading was concentrated in sectors such as electronics and power equipment, but the risks of high congestion and high valuation cannot be ignored [8][26]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bond Market Declined Following the Equity Market, Large - Cap Convertible Bonds More Resilient - This week, the convertible bond market declined following the equity market. Large - cap convertible bonds were more resilient, and the valuation structure was significantly differentiated. The median market price fluctuated downward, and the implied volatility remained high but slightly declined [8][35]. - At the industry level, cyclical and defensive sectors performed well, and sectors such as power equipment and electronics had active trading. At the individual bond level, most bonds were weak, and some low - premium bonds had certain elasticity [8][44]. 3.4 Convertible Bond Issuance and Clause Tracking 3.4.1 New Bond Issuance - This week, 2 new convertible bonds, Funeng Convertible Bond and Jinlang Convertible Bond 02, were open for subscription, with issuance scales of 3.802 billion yuan and 1.677 billion yuan respectively [53]. 3.4.2 Update of Issuance Plans - This week, 9 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans, including 2 at the approved - for - registration stage, 2 at the exchange - acceptance stage, 2 at the shareholders' - meeting - passed stage, and 3 at the board - proposal stage. The total disclosed scale of projects at the exchange - acceptance and later stages reached 64.74 billion yuan [54]. 3.4.3 Clause - Related Events - Downward Revision: This week, 6 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revision, and 9 announced that they would not revise downward [61]. - Redemption: This week, 4 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption, 6 announced that they would not redeem in advance, and 5 announced early redemption [67].