Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [5] Core Viewpoints - The focus is on investment opportunities in the stable and high-dividend electro-aluminum sector [2][9] - Short-term demand concerns are alleviated, with a greater emphasis on supply-side logic for mid-term investments [8][13] - Long-term stable and low-cost electricity supply is a critical constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - The supply-demand balance is expected to ensure stable profitability and dividends, making the electro-aluminum sector a true dividend asset [14] Summary by Sections Electro-Aluminum Sector - Concerns about downstream demand affecting short-term profitability are noted, but the report argues that short-term demand is not a worry [8][13] - Inventory levels in the electro-aluminum sector are decreasing, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [8][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable, low-cost electricity supply as a hard constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - Future profitability is expected to be stable, with major companies potentially achieving a dividend yield close to 6% [14] Steel Sector - The steel industry is entering a demand lull, with a focus on monitoring production reduction policies [15] - Rebar production has increased significantly, with a slight rise in consumption [15][16] - Total steel inventory has seen a slight increase week-on-week but a significant decrease year-on-year [22] - Steel prices have shown a slight decline, with the overall price index down by 0.49% [35][36] New Energy Metals - Lithium production in May 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 31.37% [39] - The production of new energy vehicles in China has also risen sharply, with a 33.02% increase in production [43] - Prices for lithium and nickel have shown an upward trend, indicating a robust market [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are expected to navigate through a period of differentiation and reversal in 2024, with A-shares driven primarily by valuation, while Hong Kong and Chinese concept stocks rely more on earnings support [3][5] Group 1: Market Strategies - In the face of a chaotic market, balanced allocation to hedge risks and focusing on individual stocks will be the core strategy for 2025 [3][5] - Strategic focus should be on truly strategic directions, while tactical approaches should concentrate resources on significant opportunities amidst differentiation [3][5] - The supply-side logic remains a crucial basis for identifying opportunities [3] Group 2: Global Industry Transformation - AI is identified as a core driver of global industrial transformation, with hardware and software mutually reinforcing each other, albeit at different paces [3][11] - AI is expected to profoundly change production and daily life, necessitating a focus on global internet/software exploration and efficiency optimization investments by Chinese companies [3][11] Group 3: Market Performance Insights - The Chinese concept stock market showed a flat performance in 2023 and 2024, with a slight decline of 3% and a rise of 4%, but experienced significant volatility with multiple instances of over 20% fluctuations [5] - The London market, despite a lackluster overall performance, has seen some companies in differentiated competitive sectors perform well [5][6] Group 4: Investment Logic Across Markets - A-shares are characterized by a wide variety of industry and company choices, while Hong Kong stocks offer opportunities in high-margin, quality large companies [9] - Chinese concept stocks are noted for their rapid growth in niche sectors, and overseas markets are focused on core value creators and rule-makers in the global supply chain [9] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy since 2023 has been to seek resilient growth amidst a weak recovery, emphasizing internal growth over macroeconomic judgments [9] - Key sectors of focus include commercial infrastructure, consumer goods, bulk resources, and technology hardware/software, with an emphasis on companies with strong cash flow growth and sustainable profitability [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The global capital market in 2024 is expected to navigate through differentiation and reversal, with A-shares driven by valuation and Hong Kong stocks and Chinese concept stocks relying more on earnings support. A balanced allocation to hedge risks and a focus on individual stocks will be the core strategy for navigating the "chaotic market" in 2025 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to be filled with uncertainties in 2025, necessitating concentrated investments in companies with strong competitive advantages as a means to combat market chaos [4][5]. - The Hong Kong stock market is characterized by significant individual opportunities, despite the index showing little return over the years. The focus should be on specific industry and company opportunities rather than the overall market [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy emphasizes a "weak recovery" approach, seeking resilient growth while minimizing macroeconomic judgments and focusing on companies with internal growth potential [8][9]. - Four key sectors for investment include: 1. Commercial Infrastructure: Focus on companies with high barriers to entry and reasonable valuations [9]. 2. Consumer Sector: Target companies with improved competitive landscapes and resilient demand [9]. 3. Bulk Resources: Monitor macroeconomic conditions and companies' sustainable profitability [11]. 4. Technology Hardware and Software: Observe breakthroughs in AI and the pricing power of companies in a weak recovery environment [11][12]. Group 3: AI and Technological Transformation - AI is identified as a core driver of global industrial transformation, with significant capital investment expected in the coming years. The relationship between hardware and software is crucial, with both elements enhancing each other [12][14]. - The current stage of AI development is likened to the early adopters' market, presenting both opportunities and challenges for investment [14].