Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term decline**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term intensified volatility**: Palm oil, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil [1][2] - **Oscillatory adjustment**: Cotton [2] - **Under pressure operation**: Chinese jujube [3] - **Weak operation**: Live pigs [4] Core Views - Soybean meal: Affected by factors such as the expected relaxation of Brazilian imports and the weakening of crude oil, it shows a short - term decline; short - term and short - term bearish, focus on the subsequent trend of crude oil, the US soybean planting area at the end of the month, and the final content of US biodiesel [1][6][8] - Rapeseed meal: Follows the trend of soybean meal, with expected supply pressure from the arrival of Canadian rapeseed in April, and it is recommended to wait and see for long positions [1][9][11] - Palm oil: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, although the export data in March is good and the inventory reduction expectation is large, due to the possible recovery of production in April and the disturbance of the crude oil market, the market's long - buying behavior is cautious [1][13] - Cotton: Internationally, the US cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term; domestically, the basis of cotton spot is high, and the downstream order start - up is good, which supports the bottom of cotton prices. After the adjustment is stable, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [2][14][17] - Chinese jujube: Affected by the loose supply - demand pattern in the off - season, the inventory reduction is slow, and the rising temperature will further suppress consumption, lacking upward driving force [3][18][19] - Live pigs: The spot price continues to decline, and the loss of fat pigs and piglets is intensifying. Although it is expected to promote the de - stocking of sows, the current high supply base remains unchanged. The demand is in the off - season, and the futures market is under pressure in the short - term. Pay attention to the short - term second - fattening sentiment and the de - stocking efforts of large farms [4][20][22] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price and Spread Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2932 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.98% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3332.86 yuan/ton, down 44.28 yuan or 1.31%. The soybean crushing profit and basis have changed to varying degrees [6] - **Industry Information**: Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts are both lower than last week; the expected US soybean planting area in 2026 is 86.1 million acres, higher than in 2025 and the USDA's February forecast [7] Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Spread Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2339 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan or 1.10% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2583.16 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 1.52%. The rapeseed spot crushing profit and basis have also changed [9] - **Inventory Information**: As of March 25, 2026, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions across the country was 367,000 tons, a decrease of 38,800 tons from last week [11] Palm Oil - **Export Data**: From March 1 - 25, 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly compared with the same period last month according to different institutions' data [13] Cotton - **Price and Spread Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 closed at 15340 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the domestic and foreign spot prices and spreads have also changed. The spinning profit of textile enterprises decreased, and the start - up rate of the main spinning enterprises and weaving factories increased [14] - **Industry Information**: Brazil's 2025/26 cotton production is expected to decrease by 6.9% year - on - year; Pakistan's February 2026 cotton yarn export volume increased; India's 2026/27 cotton planting area and production are expected to be flat year - on - year. In China, the new trade quota has been implemented, and the expected production in 26/27 has decreased. The import volume of cotton and cotton yarn from January to February increased year - on - year, and the downstream inventory is expected to decrease slightly. The demand side is strong, and the retail and export data of clothing and textiles are good [15][16] Chinese Jujube - **Price and Spread Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 closed at 8890 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day; the spot prices of various regions remained stable. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased by 160 tons from last week [18] - **Market Situation**: The downstream market trading is light, the inventory reduction is slow, and the market is in the off - season. Although the trading sentiment on the futures market is strong due to external factors, the upward space is limited [19] Live Pigs - **Price and Spread Data**: The futures price of the main contract 1h2605 closed at 9980 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day; the national average slaughter price was 9490 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan or 1.15%. The inventory and slaughter volume of sample enterprises, as well as the profit and demand - related data, have also changed [20] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply side is under pressure, the second - fattening sentiment is weak, the number of piglets born is increasing, and the de - stocking of sows is slow but may accelerate. The demand side is in the off - season, the slaughter enterprise's procurement is mainly based on demand, and the inventory of frozen products is high [21][22]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - The supply - demand balance sheet of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is expected to be tight, which supports the CBOT US soybean futures. With the support of import costs, the downside space below the 01 contract is limited. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8]. Summary by Related Content 1. Spot and Spread Data - **Spot Basis**: The 43% soybean meal spot basis varies by location. For example, in Dalian it's 96, in Tianjin it's 46 - 4, and in different regions it shows different values and changes. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 34 with a change of 25 [6]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 386 with a change of 5, and the futures price spread of the main contract is 541 with a change of - 1. The RM1 - 5 spread is 107, and the M1 - 5 spread is 240 [6][7]. - **Other Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed meal price spread and relevant data are also presented, along with the soybean CNF premium - continuous month data and the relationship between the US dollar - RMB exchange rate and relevant profits [7]. 2. Supply Situation - **US Soybeans**: The ISDA August report raised the US soybean yield to 53.6 bushels per acre, but lowered the planting area in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is reduced to 290 million bushels. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans this week reached 69%, but due to less rainfall and low temperature in the producing areas, the good - excellent rate may decline slightly [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: The expected arrival of soybeans in China in September is over 10 million tons, and the inventory is in the accumulation cycle. In October, the inventory is expected to start decreasing, and the supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policies [7][8]. 3. Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: The short - term high inventory of pigs and poultry supports the feed demand. However, policy guidance aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which will affect the long - term supply of pigs. Some regions use wheat to replace corn, reducing the demand for protein [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the提货 volume is at a high level. The downstream transactions of soybean meal this week are cautious [8]. 4. Inventory Situation - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level and is in the accumulation cycle [8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal inventory is increasing, lower than the same period last year, and is expected to continue accumulating. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are all generally positive, with an "oscillatingly strong" reference view for the short - term [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The growth of US soybean oil's bio - fuel demand continues to boost US soybean crushing consumption. However, good US crop weather and the expectation of a Brazilian harvest limit the upside of US soybean futures prices. The market focus will shift to the yield adjustment due to weather disturbances from July to August. The trading logic of the soybean meal market revolves around import costs, and short - term soybean meal futures prices may rebound following US soybean futures prices [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Palm oil has seen a strong rebound. The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil lead to a stronger expectation of a decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory in June. The rising Malaysian palm oil prices support domestic palm oil futures prices. With continuous inflow of market funds, the short - term oscillatingly strong trend of palm oil futures prices is expected to continue [8]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Views**: Short - term view is oscillating, medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is oscillatingly strong. The reference view is oscillatingly strong [7]. - **Core Logic**: The influencing factors include US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lower-than-expected soybean planting area in the US in 2025 is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. Although the market has not fully priced in the positive impact of the reduced soybean planting area due to trade friction concerns, it will be reflected if conditions permit. The higher-than-expected quarterly inventory report has a negative impact, but its persistence is limited as inventory data will change with demand [1][16]. - The trade agreement is always the most important driving factor for US soybeans. Additionally, attention should be paid to the weather in the main soybean-producing areas in the US, the soybean's good-to-excellent rate, and US tariff policies [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 USDA Planting Area Intentions Report - The USDA's June planting area intentions report estimated that the US soybean planting area in 2025 would be 83.38 million acres, lower than the market expectation and a year-on-year decrease of about 4.2%. The estimated corn planting area was 95.203 million acres, slightly lower than the market expectation and a year-on-year increase of about 5%. The soybean planting area in 2025 is the lowest since 2021, and the corn planting area is the highest since 2016 [4]. - The reduction in the US soybean planting area is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. The report data is positive for US soybeans and negative for US corn prices. The market has fully priced in the pressure of corn's increased planting area, but has not fully priced in the positive impact of the reduced soybean planting area [5]. 3.2 USDA Quarterly Inventory Report - According to the USDA's June 30, 2025, quarterly grain inventory report, as of the quarter ending June 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 1 billion bushels, a year-on-year increase of about 3.9%, higher than the market expectation of 980 million bushels and at the highest level for the same period since 2021. The on-farm inventory was about 410 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, and the off-farm inventory was about 596 million bushels, a year-on-year increase of about 18% [13]. 3.3 Report Impact and Future Outlook - The lower-than-expected soybean planting area in the US in 2025 is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. The planting area intentions report is positive, while the quarterly inventory report is negative, but the impact of the planting area report is greater and crucial for the formation of US soybean production in 2025 [16]. - Future points of attention include: the weather in the main US soybean-producing areas, as the monthly forecast shows high temperatures and less precipitation in some areas in July, and the short-term forecast shows normal precipitation and slightly high temperatures in the next two weeks; the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans, as the data in June 2025 was lower than the same period last year, and the market may price it in if it continues to be low; and US tariff policies, trade negotiations, or trade agreements, as the trade agreement is the most important driving factor for US soybeans [2][17].

Report Overview - Report Date: April 23, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The CBOT soybeans are not likely to decline significantly due to potential trade negotiations where some countries may increase purchases of US soybeans, and the expected reduction in the new - season US soybean planting area to 83.5 million acres year - on - year [6]. - The domestic soybean meal market is in a state of tight current supply but wide future supply expectations. In the short term, supply is tight with low import volume in March and slow customs clearance in April, and low inventory levels. However, in the long run, supply will be sufficient as Brazilian soybeans arrive in large quantities and state - reserve auctions continue [6]. - For futures, it is recommended to be long - biased in the 09 and subsequent far - month contracts, but one may need to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: - For the Soybean Meal 2505 contract, the previous settlement price was 2910, the closing price was 2988, up 78 or 2.68% with a trading volume of 393,367 and an open interest of 337,200, a decrease of 53,643 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2507 contract, the previous settlement price was 2886, the closing price was 2910, up 24 or 0.83% with a trading volume of 202,486 and an open interest of 503,784, an increase of 11,665 [6]. - For the Soybean Meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3043, the closing price was 3054, up 11 or 0.36% with a trading volume of 1,583,221 and an open interest of 2,416,736, an increase of 17,181 [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybeans 05 contract on the external market was oscillating, with the main force at 1050 cents. After a rebound after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, it entered a narrow - range oscillation last week due to ongoing trade negotiations [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal is in a state of tight current supply but wide future supply expectations. In March, the imported soybean volume was only 3.5 million tons, and customs clearance in April was slow. The soybean meal inventory reached a multi - year low, reflected in the price. However, supply will be sufficient in the future as Brazilian soybeans arrive and state - reserve auctions continue [6]. - **Futures Suggestion**: It is recommended to be long - biased in the 09 and subsequent far - month contracts, but one may need to endure the greatest supply pressure in the second quarter [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **USDA Reports**: As of the week ending April 20, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than the market expectation of 7%, 2% in the previous week, 7% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 5%. As of the week ending April 17, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 550,924 tons, within the market forecast range of 400,000 - 750,000 tons [8][9]. - **Argentina's Situation**: Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to be 17.9 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's estimate but a 7.8% increase from the previous year. The 2024/25 soybean production is estimated to be 49 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the 2023/24 season [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][15]