新华财经新加坡10月30日电 (记者刘春涛）美联储在10月28日至29日的会议上决定，将联邦基金利率目 标区间下调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%。这是继9月之后，美联储在2025年进行的第二次降息。更受市场关 注的是，美联储同时宣布将从12月1日起停止每月缩减资产负债表，结束了自2022年开始的量化紧缩 （QT）进程。新加坡大华银行（UOB）30日发布宏观研究报告指出，美联储12月份仍有可能降息25个 基点，2026年或再进行两次降息。 美联储下一次FOMC会议预计于12月9日至10日举行。 （文章来源：新华财经） 鲍威尔将10月的降息形容为一次"风险管理举措"，旨在使政策更接近中性立场。他还提到，由于美国政 府持续停摆，获取关键经济数据受限。鲍威尔承认，如果数据真空持续，美联储在12月决策时"保持更 谨慎的态度将是合理的"。 尽管鲍威尔言辞谨慎，导致市场对12月降息的预期概率从"几乎确定"大幅降至67.1%，但大华银行仍维 持其原有预测。该行高级经济师Alvin Liew在报告中表示，继续预计美联储将在今年12月的会议上再降 息25个基点。这一预测主要基于经济增长和就业面临的下行风险，特别是如果美国政府 ...

新华财经新加坡10月30日电 （记者刘春涛）美联储在10月28日至29日的会议上决定，将联邦基金利率 目标区间下调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%。这是继9月之后，美联储在2025年进行的第二次降息。更受市场 关注的是，美联储同时宣布将从12月1日起停止每月缩减资产负债表，结束了自2022年开始的量化紧缩 （QT）进程。新加坡大华银行（UOB）30日发布宏观研究报告指出，美联储12月份仍有可能降息25个 基点，2026年或再进行两次降息。 大华银行研报指出，此次利率决议并非全票通过，表决结果为10比2。美联储理事米兰（Miran）持反对 意见，他认为应降息50个基点；而堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Schmid）则持相反立场，他倾向于本月 维持利率不变。 报告指出，美联储主席鲍威尔在会后的新闻发布会上对市场预期进行了"敲打"。鲍威尔警告称，不要想 当然地认为12月会再次降息，他表示12月会议"进一步降息远非定局，远非如此"。 鲍威尔将10月的降息形容为一次"风险管理举措"，旨在使政策更接近中性立场。他还提到，由于美国政 府持续停摆，获取关键经济数据受限。鲍威尔承认，如果数据真空持续，美联储在12月决策时"保持更 ...

来源：滚动播报 据媒体分析报道，市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点，将政策利率调整至3.75-4.00%。同时预期央行 将宣布结束量化紧缩（QT）。本次会议不会公布季度经济预期报告，因此焦点将主要放在鲍威尔的新 闻发布会上，预计美联储主席鲍威尔将再次将降息定性为风险管理举措，并在缺乏关键经济数据的情况 下，不透露过多信息以维持市场预期稳定。当前市场预期美联储10月降息板上钉钉，12月降息的概率也 接近100%，2026年将累计降息117个基点，高于美联储预计的75个基点。 ...

编辑：崔凯 声明：新华财经（中国金融信息网）为新华社承建的国家金融信息平台。任何情况下，本平台所发布的 信息均不构成投资建议。如有问题，请联系客服：400-6123115 Renaissance Macro首席经济学家Neil Dutta指出，若本周再度降息25个基点，其风险可控性将与之相当。 Dutta分析称："劳动力市场疲软态势持续累积，有理由预期通胀将随之降温。"他补充道，多家大型企 业公布的裁员计划均佐证就业环境正对劳动者日趋严峻。 与此同时，Dutta表示，对价格数据的深入研究表明，若剔除关税因素，核心通胀水平本应接近美联储 调控目标。 转自：金十数据 美联储主席鲍威尔曾将上月25个基点的降息行动定义为风险管理举措——一项旨在避免对经济造成不当 拖累的低风险操作。 ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year and the beginning of a new easing cycle amid concerns over a slowing job market [1][2] - The Fed's shift in focus from inflation control to employment support is evident, as it acknowledged a slowdown in job growth and removed previous language indicating a robust labor market [1][2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management measure" in response to a complex economic environment, balancing the need for easing against persistent inflation [2][3] Economic Implications - The decision to cut rates by 25 basis points rather than 50 reflects a cautious approach, aiming to transition to a neutral rate level that supports employment without exacerbating inflation [3] - The median expectation among Fed officials suggests a further 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, indicating a preference for gradual adjustments [3] - The rate cut is expected to weaken the relative returns on dollar assets, potentially driving international capital towards emerging markets, which could alleviate local financing pressures in the short term [3][4] Challenges and Risks - The initiation of a rate cut cycle while core inflation remains at 3.1% raises concerns about the long-term value of the dollar and the implications for the global reserve currency status [4] - The easing environment may temporarily relieve debt servicing pressures for high-debt economies, but structural issues remain unresolved, posing risks if financing conditions tighten unexpectedly [4] - The Fed's balancing act between controlling inflation, supporting employment, and managing political pressures is more complex than in previous easing cycles, with a structurally higher neutral rate limiting the scope for monetary easing [5] Global Impact - For China, the Fed's rate cut presents both opportunities and challenges, as it may attract capital inflows while also increasing market volatility [5] - The interconnectedness of global economies necessitates close monitoring of U.S. monetary policy effects, emphasizing the need for policy coordination to mitigate potential risks [5]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut of 2025 and the first reduction in nine months since December of the previous year [1] - The Fed's policy focus has shifted from controlling inflation to boosting employment, as indicated by the removal of previous statements regarding a robust labor market [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management measure" to address the complex economic environment, highlighting the dual challenge of a weakening labor market and persistent inflation [3] Summary by Sections - **Interest Rate Decision** - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% to 4.25% [1] - This is the first rate cut of 2025 and the first in nine months since December [1] - **Policy Shift** - The Fed has changed its focus from inflation control to employment support, as evidenced by the removal of language about a strong labor market [2] - **Economic Context** - Powell noted the Fed is facing a rare dilemma with a weakening labor market necessitating easing policies while high inflation demands a tightening stance [3] - The median expectation from the "dot plot" indicates a potential further reduction of 50 basis points by the end of the year, suggesting two more 25 basis point cuts [3] - **Market Sentiment and Risks** - The market is generally optimistic about the Fed entering a new rate-cutting cycle, but there are significant risks due to global economic slowdown, high debt levels, and geopolitical conflicts [5] - The current economic environment features a structurally higher neutral interest rate, which may limit the effectiveness of monetary easing [5] - Excessive easing could lead to doubts about the Fed's commitment to controlling inflation and may risk unanchoring inflation expectations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first reduction in 2025, following three cuts in 2024, amid a backdrop of slowing economic growth and rising inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25% [1]. - The decision reflects concerns over a weakening labor market and rising inflation, with the Fed acknowledging the dual risks of economic conditions [2][3]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates expectations for two more rate cuts within the year, with a median forecast for the rate to be 3.6% by the end of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity in the U.S. is showing signs of slowing, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains at historically low levels [1]. - Inflation rates are elevated and persistent, with the Fed emphasizing the need to balance between supporting employment and controlling inflation [2][3]. - The market anticipates a high probability of further rate cuts in the coming months, with an 87.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and Chairman Powell's cautious remarks have not significantly impacted Bitcoin's price, but analysts expect Bitcoin to continue rising for the remainder of the year due to potential further rate cuts and other supportive factors in the cryptocurrency ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the interbank overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year after five meetings without changes [2]. - Powell emphasized the challenges posed by rising inflation risks and declining employment, indicating a shift in the balance of risks [2]. - The decision was influenced by significant pressure from President Donald Trump regarding monetary policy [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, Bitcoin's trading price was approximately $117,000, remaining stable as investors had already priced in the rate cut [3]. - Bitcoin's price slightly declined to $116,600 after the announcement, while major stock indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experienced declines [3]. - Over the past week, Bitcoin saw a 2% increase, and the inflow into Bitcoin ETFs reached its highest level since July [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Bitcoin - Analysts believe that factors such as increased corporate Bitcoin reserves and sustained demand for ETFs could drive Bitcoin prices higher in the coming weeks [3]. - The CEO of FRNT Financial noted that Wall Street is entering an unprecedented period of currency devaluation, which could lead investors to allocate more funds into Bitcoin as a hedge against purchasing power erosion [4].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25% [1] - The Fed highlighted a slowdown in economic activity and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains relatively high [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the current economic environment presents dual risks, with a weakening labor market and persistent inflation [2] - Powell indicated that the focus of monetary policy is shifting towards employment risks, acknowledging a significant slowdown in job growth [3] - The decision to lower rates by 25 basis points received broad support, with only one official advocating for a larger cut [4] - Powell stated that future policy decisions will be data-dependent and will not follow a predetermined path [4] - The Fed is undergoing organizational changes, including a 10% reduction in staff, returning to levels seen a decade ago [5][10] Economic Indicators - The overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, with core PCE increasing by 2.9% [2][7] - Commodity inflation accelerated to 1.2% over the past year, while service inflation continues to decline [2] - Job growth has significantly slowed, with hiring fatigue and difficulties for marginalized groups indicating a cooling labor market [3][7] Policy Outlook - The Fed is adopting a "risk management" approach to rate cuts, indicating that future policy will be determined in a step-by-step manner based on evolving data [8] - Powell noted that the current level of reserves is sufficient and does not believe the balance sheet has a significant impact on the economy [9] Institutional Reforms - The Fed is willing to accept constructive criticism but does not see the need for formal reviews of its operations [5] - Powell reaffirmed the importance of the Fed's independence from political influences in its decision-making process [6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, indicating a shift in focus towards managing risks associated with the labor market and inflation dynamics [1][4]. Economic Indicators - Economic activity in the U.S. is expected to slow down in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains at historically low levels [1]. - The overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, while the core PCE increased by 2.9% [2][7]. Labor Market Dynamics - Job growth has significantly slowed, with new job creation falling below the breakeven rate needed to maintain stable unemployment [3][8]. - There are signs of a cooling labor market, including weak hiring and difficulties for marginalized groups in finding jobs [3][8]. Policy Adjustments - The Fed's current policy is characterized as a "risk management decision," balancing the dual mandate of employment and inflation control [2][9]. - Future policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, relying heavily on incoming data [4][9]. Financial Stability - The overall financial condition of banks and households is stable, with default rates not reaching concerning levels, although ongoing monitoring is necessary [5]. - The Fed is undergoing organizational changes, including a 10% workforce reduction, returning to staffing levels seen a decade ago [5][11]. Independence and Governance - The Fed emphasizes its decision-making process is based on data rather than political influences, maintaining its independence as a core principle [6].