Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of "confidence" in the Chinese economy, likening it to a theatrical play titled "Waiting for Confidence," where confidence is a crucial yet elusive element for economic recovery [4][6]. Group 1: Importance of Confidence - Confidence is described as a "metaphysical" element that drives economic actions and decisions, transforming uncertainty into actionable expectations [6][8]. - The article emphasizes that confidence cannot be artificially created through policies or data alone; it exists in the collective consciousness of individuals [8][22]. Group 2: Case Study of Argentina - Argentina serves as a case study where confidence was temporarily restored through external intervention, specifically a $200 billion currency swap line from the U.S. Treasury, which provided a significant credit backing to the Argentine central bank [12][14]. - Historical parallels are drawn to past crises, such as the 1994-1995 Mexican Tequila Crisis, where similar confidence-boosting measures were effective [14][15]. Group 3: Challenges in Restoring Confidence - Despite temporary boosts in confidence, the article questions whether it can be sustained, highlighting that market participants remain skeptical and risk premiums are still high [21][22]. - The political landscape in Argentina poses a significant challenge, as any signs of failure in reforms can lead to a rapid loss of confidence among investors [21][22].

如果把这些年的中国经济改编成一部话剧，题目大概可以叫做《等待信心》。像等待戈多一样等待信心。原剧中戈多最终还是没有来，等待成了永恒； 而"信心"，最近时隐时现，好像回来了。 宏观经济分析中有很多玄学指标，"信心"就是其中一个，但它几乎又是最重要的那个。 经济再次启动要靠信心，没有信心这个玄学元素，再大的政策猛药也没有用。 人活着要靠信心，信心是对未来的感觉，它直接转化为预期，预期再驱动行动，把"未来不确定"转化为"当下可行动"。 信心让你动起来。现实世界中的信息永远不完整，再强大的理性也算不出全部，没人会100%确定结果后才行动，不管是工作、创业、结婚、还是治病， 都是先做后见效。信心就是让公式成立的默认值，没有它，我们就永远停在起点。 那又为什么说信心是玄学呢？因为它长在意识世界，却支配物理世界。 大约50年前，哲学家内格尔（Tom Nagel）写过一篇论文：《成为蝙蝠是一种什么体验？》（What is it like to be a bat? ）。论文的结论是：你永远不知 道。因为你，作为人类，永远无法得知身为一只蝙蝠的真正"感觉"是什么。就算在自己胳膊上装蹼，把自己倒挂在房檐，把眼睛蒙住，只靠扑棱和反射 ...

周一开盘，市场给出了三个耐人寻味的镜头： - 金价"开门就冲"，并未回吐上周五的任何涨幅，而是继续向历史高位挺进； 来源：华尔街情报圈 美股虽然跌幅不大（谨慎）——但"跳空低开"本身就是态度。市场在上周走得有点摇摆后，现在先给了个下行起点，暗示投资者宁愿先防守，观望后续数 据与美联储官员讲话。 三股力量并行：避险、信心、谨慎。方向未统一，却都在酝酿大行情。正如我们独家编制的《恐惧与贪婪指数》所暗示的那样：A股、美股、黄金、人民 币均出现重大信号，很可能出现大行情，但方向不一致。 某一时刻，市场或将迎来一次集体表态。 想看我们对全球市场更深刻的解读，可订阅《环球市场策略：轰隆隆，顶峰狂欢》，本周真正的考验，是谁能笑到最后。 报告亮点： - 美股期货"跳空低开"； - 离岸人民币"一脚跳涨"，从上周五的7.118，开盘直接跳涨到7.10。而同一时间，美元指数则没有什么波动。 第一，今日开盘市场的"跳涨"、"跳空"、"直冲云霄"几个动作，反映了市场的躁动。经历了上周方向不明，低调行事后，投资者似乎准备大举押注。 第二，今天的开盘格局就像"三个镜头"，各大市场讲述着不同的故事： 黄金开盘即涨（避险）——这个动作很重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed optimism about the future, indicating that there will come a day when confidence in the economy will increase [1] Group 1 - Powell's statement reflects a belief in eventual economic stability and growth, suggesting that current uncertainties may be temporary [1] - The emphasis on confidence implies that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic indicators to guide future monetary policy decisions [1] - Powell's remarks may influence market sentiment, as investors often react to signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates and economic outlook [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized the significance of conditions that strengthen the U.S. dollar for overall confidence in the economy [1] Group 1 - The conditions driving the strength of the U.S. dollar are crucial for maintaining economic confidence [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights China's significant achievements in infrastructure, particularly in railways and high-speed trains, with the total railway mileage surpassing 160,000 kilometers by September 2024 [1] - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have exceeded 10 million units annually for the first time in 2024, marking a decade of leading the global market [1] - The film industry in China has seen remarkable growth, with the box office of "Ne Zha" surpassing 15 billion yuan in 2025, placing it among the top five globally [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the confidence derived from past achievements and the continuous efforts to turn challenges into opportunities, reflecting a strong national spirit [2] - Innovation is highlighted as a key driver for progress, with examples of overcoming technical barriers in transportation and automotive industries through creative solutions [2] - The importance of patience and long-term vision is underscored, with references to historical milestones and ongoing projects that align with national development goals [3]