shutdown drags on. Increasingly, investors are seeking safety. We told you about the big gains for gold.Many are buying Bitcoin. Where should bonds fit into the equation. Where should fixed income in general fit into the equation.Well, joining us now with his fixed income outlook for the fourth quarter is Jeff Rosenberg, portfolio manager for Black Rockck Systematic Multistrategy Fund. It's great to have you here on set. >> Great to be here.Thanks. >> Let's start right there. You just put out your Q4 outloo ...

futures this morning. There's a triple digit gain in the Dow. S&P pitching in with 15 points and the NASDAQ up 52.For more on the markets, let's bring in Sarah Malik, chief investment officer and head of equities as well as fixed income uh at new. I I think in I don't a lot of times I think more of of fixed income. What do you want to start with today Sarah.You you extending location or duration with with bonds. Is it attractive right now. How do you think if we're in a um kind of an easing cycle with the F ...

Core Insights - Since taking office in January, President Trump has purchased hundreds of bonds totaling at least $103.7 million [1] - The disclosures cover over 690 transactions up to early August, with specific amounts not disclosed due to regulatory requirements [1] - Trump's net worth is reported to be $5.5 billion, with his business interests managed by his sons Donald Jr. and Eric Trump [1] Group 1: Bond Purchases - Trump made bond purchases in February, including at least $500,000 in Qualcomm (QCOM.US), Home Depot (HD.US), UnitedHealth (UNH.US), and T-Mobile (TMUS.US) corporate bonds [1] - Additionally, he purchased at least $250,000 in Meta (META.US) bonds during the same month [1] - Trump has also invested in various municipal bonds issued by local governments, airport authorities, gas districts, and school districts [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the July meeting, highlighting the dual challenges of slowing economic growth and the distorting effects of tariffs [1] - Despite fluctuations in overall GDP data, actual economic growth is gradually slowing under persistent uncertainty, with tariffs expected to rise further, impacting consumer prices by the end of the year [1] - Nuveen forecasts that U.S. economic growth will continue to slow but can avoid recession, with a projected core inflation rate of around 3.0% in 2025, potentially suppressing real income growth and overall economic performance [1] Group 2 - In fixed income, municipal bonds offer attractive yields and income advantages, remaining appealing even amid ongoing market volatility [2] - Nuveen sees investment value in preferred loans, currently yielding between 6.5% and 8%, with significant market opportunities available [2] - A substantial amount of loans, totaling $225 billion, is trading below $95, with an average price around $85 and a three-year maturity yield of approximately 16% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nuveen anticipates that the second half of 2025 will face dual pressures of economic slowdown and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess asset allocation strategies focusing on robust fundamentals, defensive characteristics, and spread advantages to enhance return potential and mitigate risks [1][2] Global Economic Outlook - The global investment committee of Nuveen expects potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, but inflation driven by tariffs may lead to a pause in easing [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause after previous rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates once [1] Asset Allocation Strategy - Nuveen recommends focusing on assets driven by spreads and reducing reliance on risk-free rates, with municipal bonds attracting long-term investors due to a steep yield curve [1] - The real estate market is gradually recovering after two years of stagnation, with strong demand observed in medical office spaces, grocery retail properties, and affordable housing [1] Stock Market Insights - Large U.S. tech companies are benefiting from the expansion of AI, increased demand for data centers, and power generation, leading to an upgrade in market positioning [1] - Defensive sectors such as finance and infrastructure are highlighted, while European equities present long-term value; emerging markets are becoming less attractive due to trade policy impacts [1] Investment Strategies - Nuveen advises investors to adopt a broadly diversified and actively managed strategy to navigate policy changes and economic slowdowns [2] - Preferred loans and securities are favored for their attractive valuations and solid credit quality, while investment-grade corporate bonds are viewed less favorably due to narrowing spreads [2] Real Estate Sector Focus - Nuveen continues to explore opportunities arising from demographic and educational diversity, with a positive outlook on medical, industrial, and residential sectors [2] - The office market faces challenges, with vacancy rates expected to improve but recovery still requiring time; real estate bonds currently offer valuation advantages over real estate stocks [2] Infrastructure Investment Preferences - Nuveen prefers public-private projects, particularly in electricity, utilities, and energy storage investments [2] - Agricultural land assets are seen as an inflation hedge, although returns are expected to slow in 2025, especially for grain crops affected by tariff pressures [2]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market reached a historical high at the beginning of the year but entered a bear market in April due to proposed tariff increases, with the S&P 500 index dropping 20% from its peak [1] - Following the proposed tariff suspension, financial markets rebounded quickly, recovering all losses by mid-May, marking one of the fastest recoveries observed [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. bond market experienced significant volatility, particularly with a sharp sell-off of long-term U.S. Treasuries starting in April, raising concerns among investors [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.79% on January 14 and dropped to a low of 4.01% by April 4, indicating substantial fluctuations in the bond market [2] - The 30-year Treasury bond mirrored the 10-year bond's performance until late May, when it reached a year-to-date high of 5.08% [4] Investment Opportunities - Current market conditions allow bond investors to achieve yields above inflation, making it an attractive environment for fixed-income investments [6] - Municipal bonds are highlighted as particularly appealing for high-tax-bracket clients due to better valuations compared to U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds [6] Treasury Issuance and Debt Management - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue over $10 trillion in bonds this year, a scale unprecedented in modern markets, with $12.2 trillion issued in the first five months of 2025, a 0.2% year-on-year increase [7] - As of June 30, the yield curve showed a significant drop in short-term yields, while long-term yields increased, indicating a market preference for shorter maturities [8][9] Fiscal Challenges - Approximately $9.2 trillion of U.S. Treasury bonds are set to mature in 2025, representing about one-third of the total U.S. debt market, with a significant portion maturing before July [11] - The Treasury is increasing short-term bond issuance to manage cash flow and maintain liquidity, aiming to keep short-term bonds at around 20% of its portfolio [12] Future Outlook - Analysts expect the 10-year Treasury yield to stabilize between 4% and 5%, which is higher than the standards of the 2010s but still manageable if auction demand remains strong and inflation is controlled [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy report indicates a substantial deterioration in the liquidity of the U.S. stock, corporate bond, and municipal bond markets, despite some improvements in overall market conditions [1]. Group 1 - Financial stability is described as "resilient" amid increasing uncertainty [1]. - Market liquidity has shown some improvement, but remains sensitive to trade policy-related news [1]. - The liquidity in the stock, corporate bond, and municipal bond markets has significantly worsened [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant deterioration in the liquidity of stock, corporate bond, and municipal bond markets [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy report indicates that liquidity issues are affecting multiple financial markets, which could have broader implications for investment strategies [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that U.S. state and local governments issued $20 billion in municipal bonds this week, marking the largest single-week issuance since the end of 2017 [1]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government lost its last highest credit rating from Moody's, while several states, including Florida, North Carolina, and Texas, are likely to maintain their top ratings [1][2] - The downgrade reflects concerns over the growing debt and deficit, which may harm the U.S.'s status as a preferred destination for global capital and increase government borrowing costs [1][3] - The municipal bond market may experience volatility due to the downgrade, particularly in areas linked to the federal government [2][3] Group 1 - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government rating to Aa1 indicates a failure to address significant annual fiscal deficits and rising interest costs [1] - Over 12 states hold a pristine 3A rating from Moody's, which is higher than the federal government's rating [1][2] - Historical data suggests that U.S. states have shown resilience even when the federal rating was downgraded [2][3] Group 2 - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields may impact municipal bonds and corporate debt, as borrowing costs for companies are often benchmarked against government bond yields [2][3] - The municipal bond market may see specific areas affected, similar to the impact observed after previous rating downgrades [2][4] - Analysts indicate that the direct impact of the downgrade may be less significant than the effects of interest rate fluctuations [4]