Core Viewpoint - Nuveen anticipates that the second half of 2025 will face dual pressures of economic slowdown and policy uncertainty, prompting investors to reassess asset allocation strategies focusing on robust fundamentals, defensive characteristics, and spread advantages to enhance return potential and mitigate risks [1][2] Global Economic Outlook - The global investment committee of Nuveen expects potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, but inflation driven by tariffs may lead to a pause in easing [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to pause after previous rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates once [1] Asset Allocation Strategy - Nuveen recommends focusing on assets driven by spreads and reducing reliance on risk-free rates, with municipal bonds attracting long-term investors due to a steep yield curve [1] - The real estate market is gradually recovering after two years of stagnation, with strong demand observed in medical office spaces, grocery retail properties, and affordable housing [1] Stock Market Insights - Large U.S. tech companies are benefiting from the expansion of AI, increased demand for data centers, and power generation, leading to an upgrade in market positioning [1] - Defensive sectors such as finance and infrastructure are highlighted, while European equities present long-term value; emerging markets are becoming less attractive due to trade policy impacts [1] Investment Strategies - Nuveen advises investors to adopt a broadly diversified and actively managed strategy to navigate policy changes and economic slowdowns [2] - Preferred loans and securities are favored for their attractive valuations and solid credit quality, while investment-grade corporate bonds are viewed less favorably due to narrowing spreads [2] Real Estate Sector Focus - Nuveen continues to explore opportunities arising from demographic and educational diversity, with a positive outlook on medical, industrial, and residential sectors [2] - The office market faces challenges, with vacancy rates expected to improve but recovery still requiring time; real estate bonds currently offer valuation advantages over real estate stocks [2] Infrastructure Investment Preferences - Nuveen prefers public-private projects, particularly in electricity, utilities, and energy storage investments [2] - Agricultural land assets are seen as an inflation hedge, although returns are expected to slow in 2025, especially for grain crops affected by tariff pressures [2]

新华财经北京7月1日电今年年初时，美国股市基准指数一度创下历史新高。但当美国4月份宣布对几乎 所有全球贸易伙伴提高关税的计划时，标准普尔500指数进入了熊市，从最高点短暂下跌了20%。美债 收益率也不祥地上升，美元暴跌，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（恐慌指标）飙升。 据美国财政部数据，10年期美债收益率1月14日创下4.79%的年中最高纪录，而在4月4日创下4.01%的年 中最低纪录。 而超长期美债，如30年期美债上半年的走势与10年期美债在4月前基本一致，而5月下旬则创下年中 5.08%的最高纪录，显示投资者在这个时间段对长期限债券的抛售。 "在这种环境下，债券投资者可以获得相对于通胀更高的收益率，因此，对于目前投资债券的人来说， 这是一个明确的积极因素，"美银固定收益策略首席投资官马修·迪佐克表示。 他补充说，"对于高税率阶层的客户来说，目前固定收益市场中最具吸引力的机会之一是市政债券市 场。这类债券的供应并没有像美国国债债和公司债券那样增长。估值看起来更好。" 而在拟议的关税暂停后，金融市场反弹，并迅速收复了5月中旬的全部损失。美林和美国银行私人银行 首席投资官克里斯·海兹表示："这是一次强劲而迅速的反弹 ...

智通财经6月20日电，美联储货币政策报告显示，金融稳定在不确定性加剧中情况下"具有韧性"；市场 流动性已有所改善，但市场状况仍对贸易政策相关消息保持敏感；股票、企业债券和市政债券市场的流 动性也出现了实质性恶化。 美联储：美国股票、企业债券和市政债券市场的流动性出现实质性恶化 ...

美联储货币政策报告：股票、企业债券和市政债券市场的流动性也出现了实质性恶化。 ...

彭博汇编数据显示，美国州和地方政府本周供应200亿美元市政债券，创2017年年底以来最大单周发行 量。 ...

美国纽约市审计长Brad Lander对市长亚当斯（Mayor Eric Adams）发行比特币支持的市政债券的提议泼 了冷水。Lander与市长管理和预算办公室共同负责债券发行，他表示，在他任职期间，这座美国最大的 城市不会发行比特币支持的债券。亚当斯目前以独立候选人身份参选。5月29日，Lander在周四的一份 声明中表示："加密货币的稳定性不足以资助我们城市的基础设施、经济适用房或学校。提议纽约市向 加密货币开放其资本规划可能会使我们的城市面临新的风险，并削弱债券购买者对我们城市的信任。" ...

巴克莱：穆迪下调美国政府评级预计将促使投资者转向高质量的应税市政债券，从而提升这些债券作为 美债替代品的吸引力。 ...

巴克莱：在美国总统特朗普与哈佛大学发生冲突期间，哈佛大学市政债券出现买入机会。 ...