黄金方面： 因关税问题加剧和美国政府停摆，投资者纷纷涌向黄金避险，而降息预期助力金价上涨。美国的地区银行出现信贷危机，勾起 了投资者2023年硅谷银行暴雷的回忆，引发市场对"雷曼时刻"重现的担忧，市场进一步押注信贷衰退。 美元指数： 美国两家地区银行暴雷，唤起市场参与者对2023年的惨痛回忆。与上次相比，这次可能是一次性的小事件，但在政府关门的情 况下，市场恐慌情绪进一步放大，出现大量抛售，美元持续下行。 欧元方面，市场仍然维持欧元区经济将缓慢复苏的判断，主要得益于货币政策宽松的支撑，以及财政政策的逐步落地。同时在 欧盟准备采取更有力度的改革措施下，叠加欧元区的储蓄率和储蓄意愿都维持在高位，展望未来，欧元仍有升值的潜力。 本周公布的相关数据显示，宏观面转弱，经济衰退风险加剧。在这种情况下，美联储十月底的降息是被动的，降息并不是经济 软着陆的表现，而是金融系统紧张的结果。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，信用衰退会引发经济衰退，甚至出现经济危机。导致市场紧张情绪出现，金价再次 大涨。同时美联储降息已经从解决就业问题，转向防范金融系统性风险。 技术面：日线收阳线，金价强势上涨。1小时级别，价格保持60/12 ...

本文来自：华尔街见闻，作者：鲍奕龙，头图来自：AI生成 金价的历史性上涨，预示着某些远比通胀或通缩更为根本的变化正在酝酿之中。 10月16日，黄金涨势不减，连续第四个交易日创历史新高，首次突破4300美元大关。黄金今年初以来已累涨超60%。 （黄金今年以来涨幅64%，截至10月17日） 彭博宏观策略师Simon White指出，黄金传递关键信息在于，它不仅是对抗货币贬值的通胀对冲工具，更是对整个金融体系的对冲——从严重的信 贷衰退到大规模的财政赤字货币化。 Simon认为当政府债务和各类信贷产品的风险日益加剧时，以实物形式持有的黄金，因其不属于任何人的负债，而成为无可指摘的终极抵押品。 因此，无论未来市场面临的是通胀冲击还是通缩危机，黄金的需求都可能持续高涨。 黄金不只是通胀对冲工具 Simon表示市场对黄金最大的误解在于将其仅仅视为通胀对冲工具和货币贬值保护手段。但历史数据显示，黄金在通胀极低和极高时都表现最 佳。 如果黄金仅是通胀对冲工具，其回报应随通胀率上升而递增。但实际情况并非如此。 在1930年代的严重通缩期，即使美国政府强制私人持有者以每盎司20美元出售黄金后重估至35美元，黄金仍实现了上涨。若非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The historic rise in gold prices indicates fundamental changes beyond mere inflation or deflation concerns [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On October 16, gold prices continued to rise, reaching a historic high of over $4,300 for the first time, and nearly $4,380 on October 17 [2] - Gold has increased by 64% year-to-date as of October 17 [3] Group 2: Gold as a Hedge - Simon White, a Bloomberg macro strategist, emphasizes that gold serves not only as an inflation hedge but also as a safeguard against systemic financial risks, including severe credit recessions and large-scale fiscal deficits [3][4] - The demand for gold is expected to remain high regardless of whether the market faces inflationary or deflationary pressures [5] Group 3: Misconceptions about Gold - The common misconception is that gold is merely an inflation hedge; however, historical data shows that gold performs well in both low and high inflation environments [6] - Gold's returns do not solely correlate with rising inflation rates, as evidenced by its performance during the severe deflation of the 1930s [7][8] Group 4: Credit Market Risks - Analysts warn of an impending credit crisis, with rising credit spreads indicating increased borrowing costs and risks in the private market [11][14] - Recent events, such as the bankruptcy of First Brands and rising credit spreads, suggest a tightening credit environment [18] Group 5: Government Debt Concerns - Governments are facing unprecedented fiscal deficits, raising concerns about the potential for these deficits to be monetized, which could erode the real value of fiat currencies [23][24] - The market's diminishing confidence in government debt is reflected in rising term premiums, which have driven up yields in major developed markets [26] Group 6: Future Implications for Gold - Regardless of whether future shocks are inflationary or deflationary, gold is expected to be in high demand [30] - In a scenario of debt monetization, while nominal values of government debt may be preserved, their real value could be destroyed, benefiting gold as a non-financial asset [31][32][33]

Core Viewpoint - Gold serves as a hedge not only against currency devaluation but also against the entire financial system, including severe credit recessions and large-scale fiscal deficit monetization [1][4][5] Group 1: Gold's Performance and Demand - Gold prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $4,300 for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over 60% [2][3] - The demand for gold is expected to remain high regardless of whether the market faces inflationary or deflationary shocks [6][11] Group 2: Misconceptions about Gold - The market often misunderstands gold as merely an inflation hedge; however, historical data shows that gold performs well in both low and high inflation scenarios [7][8] - Gold's returns do not solely correlate with rising inflation rates, as evidenced by its performance during the severe deflation of the 1930s [8] Group 3: Credit Market Risks - There is a significant risk of a major credit recession, with analysts suggesting that rising gold prices indicate an impending credit crisis [12][17] - The cost of borrowing in the private market has increased, indicating higher risks associated with lending [14][16] Group 4: Government Debt Concerns - Governments are facing unprecedented fiscal deficits, raising concerns about their ability to manage debt without resorting to currency printing [18][19] - The expectation that large fiscal deficits will eventually be monetized contributes to the rising demand for gold, as this action erodes the real value of fiat currency [19][20] Group 5: Future Implications for Gold - Regardless of whether the future economic shocks are inflationary or deflationary, gold is positioned to be a favored asset [23] - In the event of a credit crisis, the demand for high-quality collateral will increase, making gold a viable hedge against the potential devaluation of government debt [23][25]

金价的历史性上涨，预示着某些远比通胀或通缩更为根本的变化正在酝酿之中。 10月16日，黄金涨势不减，连续第四个交易日创历史新高，首次突破4300美元大关。黄金今年初以来已累涨超60%。 （黄金今年以来涨幅64%，截至10月17日） 彭博宏观策略师Simon White指出，黄金传递关键信息在于，它不仅是对抗货币贬值的通胀对冲工具，更是对整个金融体系的对冲——从严重的 信贷衰退到大规模的财政赤字货币化。 Simon认为当政府债务和各类信贷产品的风险日益加剧时，以实物形式持有的黄金，因其不属于任何人的负债，而成为无可指摘的终极抵押品。 因此，无论未来市场面临的是通胀冲击还是通缩危机，黄金的需求都可能持续高涨。 黄金不只是通胀对冲工具 真正的解决方案是高质量抵押品，这正是市场当前迫切需要并推动金价走高的原因。 （无论通胀率的高低，黄金都表现不错） 信贷市场暗藏危机 Simon表示市场对黄金最大的误解在于将其仅仅视为通胀对冲工具和货币贬值保护手段。但历史数据显示，黄金在通胀极低和极高时都表现最 佳。 如果黄金仅是通胀对冲工具，其回报应随通胀率上升而递增。但实际情况并非如此。 在1930年代的严重通缩期，即使美国政府强 ...