固定收益点评 配置盘主导的债市会如何演进？ 2025 年三季度以来长债震荡调整，交易盘负债不稳定，基金、券商等交易盘持续 抛券，而银行为主的配置盘逐步加仓。本轮交易盘减仓情况如何？配置盘提升仓 位动因何在？后续行情如何演绎？ 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2026 03 03 年 月 日 2019 年以来，交易盘仓位明显降低有七轮，本轮降幅接近 2022 年赎回潮，广 义基金仓位已降至低位。关注广义基金的利率债（国债和国开债，下同）的机构持 仓占比，当占比连续下降且累计降幅超过 1%，我们定义为大幅调仓期，而当累计 降幅在 0.5%-1%，我们定义为小幅调仓期。四轮大幅减仓期，分别是 2020 年 5- 7 月，2022 年 8 月-2023 年 2 月，2023 年 8 月-11 月，2026 年 6 月以来（本轮）； 三轮小幅减仓期，分别是 2020 年 12 月-2021 年 2 月、2022 年 1 月-4 月、2024 年 12 月-2025 年 2 月。本轮广义基金降幅已达到 2.6%，降幅仅略低于 2022 年末 赎回潮（累计降幅 3.4%），且当前广义基金的持仓占比 ...

Group 1 - The bond market performance in 2025 was not strong, with varying trading themes throughout the year. The first quarter saw a significant rise in interest rates due to excessive pricing of monetary easing expectations for the end of 2024, leading to a correction in these expectations in early 2025 [1] - In the second quarter, the bond market experienced a rally influenced by tariff disturbances. By the third quarter, the stock market showed strong performance under the "anti-involution" backdrop, leading to a stock-bond seesaw effect, with bond rates rising again. The fourth quarter exhibited weak fluctuations, with diminishing effects from previous trends and uncertainties from new rate regulations [3] - For 2026, the first quarter is viewed as a favorable time for bond market allocation, with expectations that interest rates may peak during this period. Factors such as concerns over long-term bond supply and the "opening red" of credit at the beginning of the year may exert pressure on rates, while the market anticipates a potential 10 basis points rate cut over the year [4] Group 2 - The economic outlook for 2026 is characterized as "weak reality," with a tendency for loose monetary policy and a high probability of interest rate cuts throughout the year. The stock-bond seesaw effect may weaken in the second half of the year, suggesting a strategy of accumulating ten-year government bond ETFs during corrections [5] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has notable advantages, including a transparent portfolio of bonds with remaining maturities of 7-10 years. It has achieved positive returns annually since 2018, with a market fluctuation of 0.3% in 2025. The ETF offers lower volatility compared to 30-year bonds and better coupon rates than shorter-duration bonds, making it a stable investment option [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current state of the financial market, indicating a sustained loose monetary environment with the central bank's net withdrawals over the past week [2][14] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has conducted net withdrawals of 737 billion yuan, 2311 billion yuan, 1458 billion yuan, 1340 billion yuan, and 1756 billion yuan on consecutive days, reflecting a consistent approach to managing liquidity [2][14] - The domestic manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2%, showing a slight increase from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5%, indicating a decline in service sector activity [4][15] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of Japan's central bank's stance on interest rates, suggesting that any potential rate hikes will be based on economic and price improvements, while maintaining a loose financial environment [3][15] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 48.2, indicating continued contraction, alongside a decrease in ADP employment figures, which fell by 32,000 jobs [3][15] - The article emphasizes the need for further policy support to boost domestic demand in China, as current indicators suggest weak consumer activity despite some positive signs in external demand and construction expectations [4][15] Group 3 - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) is highlighted as a viable investment option due to its characteristics of high liquidity, low credit risk, and reasonable risk-return profile, making it suitable for short-duration allocations [16][4] - The ETF primarily invests in policy financial bonds, which are noted for their high credit ratings and substantial market presence, reinforcing their attractiveness as investment targets [16][4]

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced increased volatility recently, with many bond funds seeing significant declines in net value, raising market concerns [1] - Data from Wind Information indicates that in the past 7 trading days (from November 27 to December 5), 36 bond funds had a net value drop of over 1%, with 10 funds dropping more than 2%. Among these, medium to long-term pure bond funds accounted for 50% of the total [1] - Factors contributing to the recent bond market adjustments include unmet expectations for interest rate cuts, cautious trading behavior from institutions at year-end, and the potential impact of new public fund sales regulations [1] Group 2 - Historically, December has been a month of rising bond markets due to marginally relaxed funding conditions and concentrated institutional allocation demands. However, this year, long-term institutional investors are expected to have weaker allocation intentions compared to previous years, potentially diminishing seasonal effects [2] - As of December 5, out of over 3,900 bond funds with reported returns, 3,443 funds achieved net value growth, with 109 funds showing growth rates exceeding 10%. The top three funds by net value growth rate are Southern Changyuan Convertible Bond A (36.34%), Minsheng Jianyin Enhanced Income Bond A (29.09%), and Huashang Fengli Enhanced Regular Open Bond A (27.80%) [2] - From a long-term perspective, bonds remain a "ballast" for asset allocation, essential for risk diversification and stable returns. Once market sentiment stabilizes and policies become clearer, new allocation opportunities in the bond market may arise [3]

Core Insights - The "Tian Tian Ying" cash management service from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has expanded with the addition of two funds from Great Wall Fund, enhancing its offerings in the market [1][2] Group 1: Product Expansion - As of August 8, the number of underlying money market funds associated with "Tian Tian Ying 1" has increased to 106, with two new products from Great Wall Fund included [2] - "Tian Tian Ying" allows for 24/7 quick redemption and one-click purchase and redemption of multiple related money market funds and financial products, with a minimum investment of 1 cent for money market funds and 1 yuan for cash management products [1] Group 2: Management Insights - The funds are managed by Zou Deli, the assistant general manager of Great Wall Fund, who emphasizes the importance of managing liabilities effectively to enhance asset allocation [2] - Zou Deli also highlights the need for strong communication between investment and sales teams to improve investor confidence and optimize scale management [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Recent volatility in the bond market may present short-term rebound opportunities, with expectations for a shift towards a yield decline phase primarily driven by coupon income within the year [2]

Core Points - The Chinese government aims for a GDP growth of around 5% for the year 2025, as stated in the government work report [2] - Preliminary calculations indicate that China's GDP for 2024 reached 134.9 trillion yuan, marking a 5.0% increase from the previous year [2] - Quarterly GDP growth rates for 2024 were reported as follows: Q1 at 5.3%, Q2 at 4.7%, Q3 at 4.6%, and Q4 at 5.4% [2] Group 1 - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on March 17, 2025, to discuss the national economic performance for January and February 2025 [1] - The press conference will feature Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, who will provide insights and answer questions regarding the economic situation [1] Group 2 - The economic scale of China has reached a new level with the reported GDP figures for 2024 [2] - The government has set a clear target for economic growth, reflecting its focus on maintaining stability and growth in the economy [2]