国开ETF（159650）基金经理 吕瑞君 上周五（10月31日）央行维持净投放，DR001加权微升，资金跨月无忧，当日央行净投放1871亿元。本 周一月初资金面扰动消退，宽松预期下，资金面延续边际转松，当日央行净回笼2590亿元。本周二资金 面维持稳定宽松，资金利率窄幅震荡，当日央行净回笼3578亿元。本周三资金面继续宽松，资金利率变 动不大，当日央行净回笼为4922亿元。此外，央行公开市场进行7000亿元3M买断式逆回购操作，本月 有7000亿元3M买断式逆回购到期。本周四资金面延续平稳宽松态势，当日央行净回笼2498亿元。本周 四（11月6日）相较于上周五，DR001收平于1.32%，DR007下行3bp收于 1.43%。 海外方面，美联储官员们的最新讲话释放重磅信号。美东时间11月3日，美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示， 如果未来的经济数据符合预期，美联储应再次降息50个基点。美联储理事丽莎·库克表示，支持近期联 邦公开市场委员会的降息决定，愿意考虑进一步降息，但还没有就12月降息与否做决定。11月5日，美 国最高法院就美国总统特朗普大规模征收关税的合法性展开辩论。此案被视为对特朗普总统权力边界及 其能否扩 ...

国开ETF（159650）基金经理 吕瑞君 上周五（10月24日）资金面延续平稳，当日央行净投放32亿元。本周一在税期和月末等因素影响下，资 金面呈收敛态势，当日央行净投放3483亿元。本周二央行逆回购净投放力度加大，资金面供求相对均 衡，当日央行净投放3158亿元。本周三央行净投放力度进一步加大，银行间流动性边际趋松，主要回购 利率有所走低，央行当日投放4195亿元。本周四资金面进一步边际放松，资金利率大幅下行，当日央行 净投放1301亿元。本周四（10月30日）相较于上周五，DR001下行1bp收于1.31%，DR007上行9bp收于 1.50%。 风险揭示书 海外方面，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普预计，他将在今年年底前就下一任美联储主席作出决定。当被问及 Kevin Hassett、Kevin Warsh、Christopher Waller、Michelle Bowman、Rick Rieder 是否为该职位的竞争者 时，财政部长斯科特·贝森特给出了肯定的答案。美联储10月议息会议召开，美联储将基准利率下调25 个基点至3.75%-4.00%，为年内第二次降息。美联储宣布将于12月1日结束资产负债表缩减。鲍 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the stable and relatively loose liquidity in the domestic financial market, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducting net withdrawals and injections throughout the week [2][4] - The GDP for the first three quarters of the year reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, while the third quarter saw a year-on-year growth of 4.8% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% [4] - The article suggests that the domestic economy is showing signs of marginal weakening, particularly in fixed investment, and anticipates a potential acceleration in monetary policy easing in the fourth quarter [4] Group 2 - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) is highlighted as a suitable investment vehicle due to its high credit rating, large scale, and good liquidity, making it a reasonable choice for investors seeking low-risk options [4] - The ETF's characteristics include good liquidity, low credit risk, and lower volatility, making it a favorable tool for short-duration allocations [4] - The article indicates that the bond market may return to being driven by fundamentals, with expectations of declining bond yields as liquidity and economic conditions become more favorable [4]

Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank's net injection of liquidity was 124.3 billion yuan on September 19, followed by a net injection of 260.5 billion yuan on September 22, indicating a marginal easing of the funding environment [1] - The central bank continued to implement net withdrawals, with a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan on September 23 and 17 billion yuan on September 24, reflecting a tightening trend in the funding market [1] - The funding rates showed slight increases, with DR001 rising by 1 basis point to 1.47% and DR007 increasing by 9 basis points to 1.60% on September 25 compared to the previous week [1] Economic Indicators and Global Context - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.5, a three-month low, below the expected 50.7, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted risks to both employment and price stability, suggesting that the labor market is showing signs of weakness and that asset prices may be overvalued compared to historical levels [2] Domestic Economic Outlook - Following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points, the Chinese monetary policy may accelerate easing in the fourth quarter, potentially leading to a reduction in bond yields [3] - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) is identified as a viable investment option due to its high credit rating, large scale, and good liquidity, making it suitable for short-duration allocations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera (511130) has surpassed 20 billion yuan in scale, marking it as a significant product among Bosera's bond ETFs and highlighting its investment value in a low-interest-rate environment [1][3][19] Investment Value - The core value of the 30-year government bond ETF lies in its approximately 20-year duration, which provides a "leverage" effect, making it a vital investment tool [3][5] - The ETF is one of only two 30-year government bond ETFs available in the market, indicating its relative scarcity [4] Configuration Value - In a declining interest rate environment, the long duration of the 30-year government bond offers strong configuration value. Historical data shows that an investment in the 30-year bond since 2012 would yield an average annualized return of 6.69% over three years, compared to 5.09% for a similar duration of 7-10 year government bonds [6][9] Trading Value - The ETF's longer duration results in higher volatility, enhancing its trading value. For instance, the modified duration of the 30-year bond index is 19.65 years, significantly higher than the 7.5 years for the 7-10 year government bond index, providing advantages in capital gains during trading [11][12] Hedging Value - The long duration of the 30-year government bond ETF allows it to hedge against equity market volatility, particularly in a financial disintermediation context. Historical data indicates that in 137 months since 2013, 61.31% showed a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [13] Trading Strategies - The ETF offers three trading strategies: 1. **Arbitrage**: Investors can estimate the ETF's premium/discount levels and utilize the ETF's redemption and trading mechanisms for arbitrage [14] 2. **Futures and Spot Arbitrage**: Investors can compare futures and spot prices, using the ETF as a substitute for spot trading [15] 3. **Grid Trading Strategy**: In a fluctuating market, investors can set parameters to adjust positions, potentially yielding good returns [16] Trading Convenience - The 30-year government bond ETF allows for easy trading through both primary and secondary markets. Investors can subscribe using physical or cash methods, with immediate access to ETF shares [17][18] Future Outlook - Bosera Fund aims to continue innovating and expanding its product offerings in the index product field, providing diverse investment options for investors [20][21]

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has surpassed 20 billion yuan in scale, marking it as a significant product alongside other major bond ETFs from the company [1] - The ETF's core value lies in its approximately 20-year duration, which provides leverage benefits and makes it a rare product in the current market [2][4] - The ETF offers three main investment values: allocation value, trading value, and hedging value, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [2][6] Allocation Value - In a downward interest rate trend, the long duration of the 30-year government bond ETF provides strong allocation value, with an average annualized return of 6.69% for a three-year holding period since 2012, compared to 5.09% for 7-10 year government bonds [2][4] Trading Value - The ETF has a higher trading value due to its longer duration and greater volatility compared to 7-10 year government bonds, with a modified duration of 19.65 years versus 7.50 years for the latter [6] - Historical data shows that during low volatility phases, the trading value of the 30-year government bond ETF becomes more pronounced [6] Hedging Value - The long duration of the ETF allows it to hedge against equity market fluctuations, with a significant occurrence of the "stock-bond seesaw" effect noted in 61.31% of the months analyzed since 2013 [6] - The ETF supports various trading strategies, including arbitrage and grid strategies, enhancing its appeal in a volatile market [6][7] Trading Mechanism - The ETF can be traded conveniently through both primary and secondary markets, with options for physical or cash subscriptions [7] - The trading efficiency is comparable to stocks, allowing for T+0 transactions, which lowers the entry barrier for investors [7] Future Outlook - Bosera aims to continue innovating and expanding its product offerings in the index product space, focusing on providing diverse investment options for investors [9]

Core Insights - The bond ETF market is thriving in a low-interest-rate environment, with the total scale of bond ETFs surpassing 500 billion yuan as of August 21, 2025, driven by investor preference for lower volatility [1] - Bosera Fund has successfully launched five bond ETFs, with a total scale exceeding 100 billion yuan for several products, including a convertible bond ETF that has surpassed 57 billion yuan [1][2] - The performance of Bosera's bond ETFs has been strong, with the convertible bond ETF achieving a cumulative return of 24.02% since inception, outperforming various benchmarks [1][2][3] Bosera Bond ETF Overview - Bosera Fund's bond ETF lineup includes five products: Convertible Bond ETF (511380), 30-Year Government Bond ETF (511130), Credit Bond ETF (159396), Sci-Tech Bond ETF (551000), and National Development Bank ETF (159650) [1][2] - The 30-Year Government Bond ETF has seen significant growth, with its scale increasing from 29.87 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to over 170 billion yuan, marking a growth rate of over 450% [2] - The Sci-Tech Bond ETF focuses on sectors like chips and new energy, achieving a yield of 14.48% since inception, significantly higher than major indices [2] Performance Metrics - The Credit Bond ETF has also performed well, with a scale exceeding 114 billion yuan and a yield of 12.01% since inception, outperforming major indices [2] - The National Development Bank ETF has shown a cumulative return of over 36.34% over the past decade, outperforming the comprehensive bond index [3] - Bosera's bond ETFs are characterized by low credit risk and good liquidity, making them attractive to investors seeking stable returns [3] Market Positioning - Bosera Fund has established a comprehensive product line in the bond ETF space, catering to diverse investor needs and preferences [5] - The bond ETFs offer advantages such as low management fees (0.15% per year) and quick trading capabilities (T+0), enhancing their appeal to investors [5] - The recent inclusion of the Credit Bond ETF and Sci-Tech Bond ETF in the general pledge-style repurchase market is expected to further enhance their liquidity and marketability [2]

Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation on August 8, injecting a net of 696 billion yuan into the market, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [1] - On August 11, the central bank had a significant net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan, but interbank liquidity remained stable with minimal price fluctuations [2] - Throughout the week, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, with net withdrawals of 46.1 billion yuan on August 12, 20 billion yuan on August 13, and 32 billion yuan on August 14, while the overall funding prices remained stable [2] Economic Indicators - In the U.S., July's unadjusted CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while the adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with expectations [4] - The U.S. customs tariff revenue reached a record high of 28 billion dollars in July, a year-on-year increase of 273%, but this did not prevent the expansion of the federal budget deficit [4] - Domestic financial data for July showed a decrease in RMB loans by 50 billion yuan, with social financing increasing by 1.16 trillion yuan, indicating weak private sector demand [4][5] Market Performance - The stock market has shown strong performance since July, influenced by rising commodity prices amid a "de-involution" backdrop, although the bond market faced some short-term disturbances [5] - The overall financial data for July is considered weak, with a notable decline in corporate medium to long-term loans, suggesting that real demand in the economy still needs to be strengthened [5]

Group 1 - The liquidity in the interbank market improved as the tax period effects diminished, with the central bank's net injection of 102.8 billion yuan on July 18 [1] - The central bank continued to net withdraw funds throughout the week, with a net withdrawal of 555 billion yuan on Monday and 2.477 billion yuan on Tuesday [1] - On Thursday, the funding rates increased significantly, with overnight and 7-day funding rates inverted, and the central bank net withdrew 119.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated that the recent tax and spending bill signed by President Trump will increase the U.S. deficit by 3.4 trillion dollars over the next ten years [2] - The bill includes cuts to Medicaid and provisions that could lead to 10 million Americans losing health insurance by 2034 [2] - The National Association of Realtors reported a 2.7% month-over-month decline in existing home sales in June, reaching an annualized total of 3.9 million units, the lowest since September of the previous year [2] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of enterprise innovation and collaboration between state-owned and private enterprises [3] - The recent market trends indicate a recovery in risk appetite, impacting the performance of bonds, while the internal logic for a bullish bond market remains due to weakened financing demand and debt leverage [3] - The supply-side policies mainly affect upstream industries, while midstream and downstream sectors remain weak, suggesting potential for further easing in monetary policy [3] Group 4 - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) targets policy financial bonds, which are characterized by high credit ratings, large volumes, and good liquidity, making them attractive investment options [4] - The ETF offers good liquidity, low credit risk, and reasonable risk-return ratios, serving as a suitable tool for short-duration allocations [4]