TrendForce发文称，近期在库存逐步消化与收储发力下，光伏产业链挺价态势明确。硅料厂报价大幅拉升至65元/kg、硅片正经历由库存出清驱动的价格反 弹期、电池片环节本周更是爆发强烈的涨价潮。组件市场随着年底项目冲量接近尾声，前期遗留的极低价订单正加速消失。预计在经历一季度的博弈与去 库后，随着季节性需求回暖及上游成本压力的全额传导，二季度组件价格有望真正实现顺价上行。 光伏组件 受生产端大幅减产与下游电池厂抄底囤货的双重驱动，硅片库存近期迅速去化，已降至15GW以下的历史低位。这一供需格局的转变促使硅片厂于昨日开 启"封仓报涨"模式，市场博弈进入白热化阶段。目前，行业正屏息关注闭门会议的最终定调，价格走向将由产业链各方的协同结果决定。 尽管厂家心理预期涨幅高达0.3元/W，但在终端接受度及传导机制的制约下，短期内实现该目标难度较大。不过，基于当前的低库存红利，硅片价格上行 趋势已成定局，短期内单片价格预计将迎来至少0.05元/W以上的刚性修复。整体而言，硅片环节已率先走出阴跌阴影，正在经历由库存出清驱动的价格反 弹期。 电池片 本周电池片环节爆发强烈的涨价潮，一线厂商率先对0.3元/W以下的低价订单停止发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The solar energy sector is experiencing a price increase across the supply chain, with specific stocks showing significant gains in early trading. Group 1: Stock Performance - New Energy (01799) rose by 7.07%, reaching HKD 9.24 [1] - Flat Glass (06865) increased by 5.56%, reaching HKD 12.52 [1] - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) saw a rise of 3.73%, reaching HKD 1.39 [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968) gained 3.22%, reaching HKD 3.85 [1] Group 2: Price Trends - Since September, prices in the photovoltaic supply chain have been on the rise [1] - Multi-crystalline silicon, silicon wafers, cells, and photovoltaic module prices have all increased, with upstream prices rising more than downstream [1] - Photovoltaic glass prices are recovering due to production cuts by leading companies, reduced industry inventory, and a contraction in supply [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall market is weak following a previous rush for installations, with centralized projects driving installation demand [1] - The stability of terminal module prices and the impact of anti-competitive measures are expected to lead to a stabilization of prices in the photovoltaic supply chain [1]

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the trend of domestic companies expanding overseas due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the US, with a focus on the advantages of the domestic industrial supply chain and engineering workforce [6] - The year 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the mass production of humanoid robots, presenting significant opportunities for domestic supply chains [6][7] - The report emphasizes the expected growth in the photovoltaic industry, with projections for increased installed capacity and rising prices across the supply chain [7][11] Industry Commentary: Machinery - The machinery industry is experiencing a shift as leading companies accelerate their overseas expansion in response to new US tariff policies [6] - Key companies to watch include Giant Star Technology, Changrun Co., and Honghua Digital Science, which are positioned to benefit from this trend [6] - The report also notes the potential for growth in the humanoid robot sector, with significant contracts awarded for production services [6] Industry Commentary: Electric Equipment and New Energy - The report discusses the recent launch of a new humanoid robot by Yushun Technology, which is expected to drive demand in both commercial and industrial sectors [7] - The photovoltaic industry is projected to see an increase in installed capacity, with estimates for 2025 revised upwards to 270-300 GW in China [7] - The report tracks price movements in the photovoltaic supply chain, noting significant increases in polysilicon and silicon wafer prices, indicating a bullish outlook for the sector [8][11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in humanoid robotics and the photovoltaic supply chain, including Jack Co., Hengli Hydraulic, and Zhejiang Rongtai [6][11] - It suggests that investors pay attention to the automation of logistics and textile equipment, highlighting companies like Hangcha Group and Jack Co. for their innovative approaches [6] - The report also identifies key players in the photovoltaic sector, such as Aiko and Longi Green Energy, as potential investment opportunities [11]

Group 1 - The upstream prices in the photovoltaic industry chain continued to rise last week, with multi-crystalline silicon dense material averaging 42,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.5%, and granular silicon averaging 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10% [1] - InfoLink predicts that the price of multi-crystalline silicon dense material may rise to around 50,000 to 52,000 yuan/ton, with a possibility of reaching 55,000 yuan/ton, depending on downstream acceptance [1] - The price gap in silicon materials indicates ongoing negotiations between upstream and downstream players, with the average price aligning more closely with new order prices as previous orders are fulfilled [1] Group 2 - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise last week, with the main contract closing price increasing from 8,745 yuan/ton to 9,525 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.92% [2] - The price increase of silicon materials is being transmitted downstream, with the average transaction price of 183N monocrystalline silicon wafers rising by 4.76% to 1.1 yuan/piece, 210RN monocrystalline silicon wafers by 8.70% to 1.25 yuan/piece, and 210N monocrystalline silicon wafers by 6.67% to 1.44 yuan/piece [2] - The rapid increase in industrial silicon prices has limited acceptance from downstream sectors, indicating potential challenges in price transmission [2]