据智通财经11月18日报道，优必选表示目前已制定清晰的产能爬坡计划，预计到2026年，工业人形机器 人年产能将达5000台，2027年进一步扩大至10000台规模。 此外东方证券认为，人形机器人板块近期出现回调，主要是市场对机器人未来量产的信心在短期出现了 回落。其表示，行业量产的前提是产业在场景、模型、结构等方面出现了共识的收敛。预计26年上半年 有望出现更明确的量产情况，其中26一季度的V3落地和小批量生产有望成为重要信号，市场有望重点 关注产业链量产供应商。 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 拓邦股份：公司空心杯电机+减速箱+编码器一体的执行器组件产品已与优必选等人形机器人主机厂达 成合作，且已获得前期批量订单，正持续送样各行业龙头客户。 世运电路：公司是小鹏人形机器人电路板主要供应商之一。 此外，在17日的小鹏业绩电话会上，小鹏汽车董事长兼CEO何小鹏表示，从长期来看机器人的市场潜力 比汽车更大，一旦某一代机器人像中国EV产业跨过了电动化的拐点，将迎来爆发性增长。 小鹏汽车将在明年底率先规模量产高阶的人形机器人，期待在2030年小鹏机器人的年销量超过100万 台。 11月12日，国产机器人企业优必选 ...

以下文章来源于融中财经 ，作者吕敬之 融中财经 . 中国领先的股权投资与产业投资媒体平台。聚焦报道中国新经济发展和创新投资全产业链。通过全媒体资讯平台、品牌活动、研究服务、专家咨询、投资顾 问等业务，为政府、企业、投资机构提供一站式专业服务。 作者吕敬之 编辑吾人 人形机器人被视作"下一个万亿终端"，但 2025 年的赛道先传来倒闭声：硅谷明星 K-Scale Labs 烧光融资后黯然关门， 100 多台预购订单被迫退款。 融资窗口收紧、供应链缺位，让机器人"量产元年"看上去更像"生死元年"。 技术端，关节能耗、感知误差与数据荒形成隐形天花板；成本端， 40 万元 BOM 是马斯克 2 万美元目标的整整两倍；场景端，工业产线狭窄、家庭付费 意愿不足， ROI 算不过来。资本市场开始区分 PPT 与现金流，谁能先突破性价比阈值，谁才有资格谈" iPhone 时刻"。 人形机器人，开始倒闭 K-Scale Labs ，这家成立仅一年的类人机器人初创公司正在关闭。 Bolte 表示， OpenAI 的机器人业务负责人 Caitlin Kalinowski 曾预购过其中一台。每台机器人的售价约为 1.5 万美元，公司 ...

以下文章来源于融中财经 ，作者吕敬之 融中财经 . 中国领先的股权投资与产业投资媒体平台。聚焦报道中国新经济发展和创新投资全产业链。通过全媒体资讯平台、品牌活动、研究服务、专家咨询、投资 顾问等业务，为政府、企业、投资机构提供一站式专业服务。 困在"最后一公里"。 文 ｜ 吕敬之 编辑 ｜ 吾人 来源｜ 融中财经 （ID：thecapital） 封面来源 ｜ unsplash 人形机器人被视作"下一个万亿终端"，但2025年的赛道先传来倒闭声：硅谷明星K-Scale Labs烧光数万美元后黯然关门，100多台预购订单被迫退款。 融资窗口收紧、供应链缺位，让机器人"量产元年"看上去更像"生死元年"。 技术端，关节能耗、感知误差与数据荒形成隐形天花板；成本端，40万元BOM是马斯克2万美元目标的整整两倍；场景端，工业产线狭窄、家庭付费意愿 不足，ROI算不过来。资本市场开始区分PPT与现金流，谁能先突破性价比阈值，谁才有资格谈"iPhone时刻"。 人形机器人，开始倒闭 K-Scale Labs，这家成立仅一年的类人机器人初创公司正在关闭。 该消息来自《The Information》看到的由CEO Ben Bo ...

以下文章来源于融中财经 ，作者吕敬之 融中财经 . 中国领先的股权投资与产业投资媒体平台。聚焦报道中国新经济发展和创新投资全产业链。通过全媒体 资讯平台、品牌活动、研究服务、专家咨询、投资顾问等业务，为政府、企业、投资机构提供一站式专 业服务。 导语： 困在"最后一公里" 。 人形机器人被视作"下一个万亿终端"，但 2025 年的赛道先传来倒闭声：硅谷明星 K-Scale Labs 烧光数万美元后黯然关门， 100 多台预购订单被迫退款。 K-Scale 开发了一款能够双脚行走、并使用开源软件的类人机器人。来自 OpenAI 、 Nvidia 和 Amazon 等科技巨头的员工曾到访公司位于斯坦福大学附近的一处房屋，用于参观其机器人研发 现场。 K-Scale 拥有大约 10 名员工，但随着资金耗尽，许多核心员工在过去数月已经离职。 Bolte 在邮件中写道，他曾与类人机器人公司 1X Technologies 的 CEO Bernt Børnich 探讨被 收购的可能性，但 Børnich "明确表示他只考虑收购 K-Scale 的少数几名团队成员，而不会收 购公司的其他资产。" Bolte 还称，他与另一 ...

Core Insights - Humanoid robots are viewed as the "next trillion-dollar terminal," but the industry faces significant challenges as exemplified by the closure of K-Scale Labs, which burned through its funding and had to refund over 100 pre-orders [1][2][5] - The current environment is characterized by tightening financing, supply chain issues, and high production costs, making the anticipated "mass production year" appear more like a "survival year" for many companies [1][7] Company Summary - K-Scale Labs, a humanoid robot startup founded in 2024, aimed to create an open-source, low-cost humanoid robot platform for researchers and developers [4][5] - The company raised approximately $4 million in seed funding at a valuation of $50 million but failed to secure additional financing, leading to its closure [2][5] - K-Scale developed a bipedal humanoid robot priced at around $15,000, with over $2 million in orders, but faced challenges in scaling production due to limited resources and high costs [3][5] Industry Challenges - The humanoid robot industry is struggling with high production costs, with an average Bill of Materials (BOM) cost of 400,000 RMB, which is double the target price of $20,000 set by industry leaders like Elon Musk [8][9] - Technical limitations include high energy consumption for joint modules, significant perception errors, and a lack of sufficient training data, which hinder the mass production of humanoid robots [7][8][9] - The supply chain is fragmented, with key components largely imported, leading to increased costs and production delays [9][10] Market Dynamics - The market for humanoid robots is currently limited, with industrial applications primarily in niche areas, and consumer acceptance remains low due to high costs and limited functionality compared to existing automation solutions [10][11] - The ROI for businesses considering humanoid robots is often unfavorable, with long payback periods compared to traditional industrial robots [10] - Despite these challenges, the humanoid robot's design offers a versatile interface that could potentially lead to widespread adoption if costs decrease and functionality improves [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of XPeng Motors, He Xiaopeng, responded vigorously to widespread skepticism regarding the company's humanoid robot, IRON, asserting that the team felt wronged and emotionally affected by the doubts raised online [1]. Group 1: Response to Criticism - He Xiaopeng revealed that the team felt "wronged" and had sleepless nights due to the online skepticism about the robot being a real person [1]. - In an effort to dispel doubts, the team filmed a "one-shot" video to demonstrate the robot's authenticity, but the release did not quell the criticism, which shifted to questioning the robot's design and the video's authenticity [1]. - To further prove the robot's identity, the team resorted to extreme measures during a live event, cutting open the robot's leg to reveal its mechanical structure, which He Xiaopeng compared to a scene from the movie "Let the Bullets Fly" [1]. Group 2: Industry Perception and Future Plans - He Xiaopeng noted that the skepticism reflects a bias in people's perceptions, likening it to the disbelief in Chinese companies' ability to produce quality electric vehicles a decade ago [4]. - He suggested that if the robot were from an overseas company, the feedback would likely be more positive, indicating a potential bias against domestic innovations [4]. - Despite the challenges faced, the controversy has led to unexpected positive outcomes, such as increased interest from supply chain companies willing to collaborate on mass production of the robot [4]. - The company aims to achieve mass production of high-level humanoid robots by the end of 2026 [4].

Group 1: Passenger Vehicles - Domestic sales of passenger vehicles have gradually surpassed the previous high point of 2017, with expectations for steady growth if central and local subsidies remain effective. The resilience of growth needs to be observed through 2026 [2][3] - In the new energy sector, technological innovations and model iterations are expected to drive an increase in penetration rates, while the phase-out of purchase tax incentives by the end of 2025 may lead to temporary demand pull-forward. Domestic new energy vehicle sales are projected to maintain double-digit growth [2][3] - The global expansion of Chinese automotive brands is anticipated to accelerate, with overseas sales expected to grow by 5-10% by 2026, and the share of new energy vehicles in exports reaching 50% [8][10] Group 2: Commercial Vehicles - The heavy truck sector is expected to see continued support from the scrappage and renewal policy, with total industry volume projected to grow by 5% year-on-year, reaching 1.05-1.1 million units by 2026. Domestic sales are expected to remain flat or grow by 5% to 710,000-760,000 units, while exports may increase by 10% to 340,000 units [10] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in domestic sales is expected to reach around 30% by 2026, up from 25% in 2025. The L2+ level assisted driving heavy trucks are anticipated to achieve a breakthrough, with penetration rates reaching single digits [10] Group 3: Auto Parts - The growth potential of China's auto parts industry is shifting from domestic demand to international expansion, with a focus on securing orders from European automakers for new energy vehicle components by 2026 [2][11] Group 4: Robotics and Autonomous Driving - The robotics industry is entering a mass production phase, with humanoid robots showing long-term development potential. The industry is expected to accelerate progress, with key catalysts emerging from domestic manufacturers [11][12] - 2026 is projected to be the year for the mass production of L3 autonomous driving, driven by improved regulations and consumer awareness. The penetration rate of high-level autonomous driving is expected to exceed 40% by 2026 [12][13]

Core Insights - Leju Robotics has completed nearly 1.5 billion yuan in Pre-IPO financing, with investments from multiple firms including Shenzhen Longhua Capital and Dongfang Precision [1] Financing Details - The financing round aims to enhance core technology research and development, deepen industry chain layout, and improve application scenarios for humanoid robots [1] - The funds will support the transition of humanoid robots towards large-scale production and diversified applications [1] Industry Chain Investments - Leju Robotics has invested in several upstream and downstream companies, including: - Quanzhibo (integrated joints) - Lijudongli (motors) - Lingxinqiaoshou (dexterous hands) - Kehang Shikong (data platform) - Jubrain Panshi (embodied brain) - Jushi Intelligent (operating system) [1] Collaborative Ventures - The company has partnered with Dongfang Precision to establish a large-scale humanoid robot production line [1] - Joint ventures include a humanoid robot controller company with Heertai and Dongfang Precision, and a production logistics solution company with Haichen [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - Despite the intensification of short-term trade frictions, domestic component manufacturers are investing in overseas production capacity, and humanoid robots are expected to enter mass production, indicating that the impact of trade frictions is limited. The humanoid robot sector is poised for a strategic opportunity [3][8] - The leading companies in the humanoid robot sector are expected to accelerate mass production, with Tesla's CEO announcing plans for the third-generation humanoid robot, Optimus, to begin production in early 2026, aiming for a monthly output of 100,000 units within five years. This reflects the maturity of robot products and signals a new phase of mass production in the industry [8] Summary by Sections Trade Friction Impact - The report indicates that the impact of trade frictions on humanoid robots is minimal, with the sector presenting a good opportunity for investment [8] - Domestic companies are actively establishing overseas production bases, reducing uncertainties in the supply chain due to trade tensions [8] Industry Trends - The report highlights that the leading companies, such as Tesla, are driving the industry towards mass production, with significant support from the domestic supply chain [8] - The report emphasizes the strong manufacturing capabilities of domestic component companies, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming mass production phase [3][8] Investment Targets - Recommended investment targets include Top Group (601689, Buy), Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050, Buy), Wuzhou New Spring (603667, Buy), Hengli Hydraulic (601100, Not Rated), and Zhenyu Technology (300953, Buy) [3]

Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from technical exploration to large-scale production, driven by policy guidance and collaboration with the electric vehicle supply chain [1][4] - The industry is expected to experience significant growth over the next two decades, with a projected demand increase of five to ten times by 2026 [3][6] Technological Development - The focus has shifted from developing functional robots to rapid scaling, with breakthroughs across the software, hardware, and supply chain [2][3] - Tesla's Optimus Gen3 is becoming an industry benchmark, with its design nearing completion and expected to launch by the end of this year [2][6] Market Expansion - Domestic companies are securing substantial contracts, with the likes of UBTECH's Walker series winning contracts worth hundreds of millions, primarily from state-owned enterprises and government departments [3][4] - The supply chain for humanoid robots in China is now one of the most complete globally, facilitating mass production [3][5] Policy Support - China is providing leading global support for the humanoid robot industry, with systematic and precise policies aimed at fostering key component breakthroughs [4][5] - Local governments are implementing substantial support measures, including targeted subsidies for research, manufacturing, and application promotion [4] Synergy with Electric Vehicle Industry - The collaboration with the electric vehicle industry is enhancing the humanoid robot sector through shared data, technology, and supply chain efficiencies [5][6] - The automotive industry's manufacturing capabilities and cost control experiences are being leveraged for robot production [5] Investment Opportunities - Key investment strategies include focusing on core components linked to leading companies like Tesla, domestic industry leaders, and niche areas with unique technologies [6][7] - The industry is characterized by non-linear growth, suggesting that current valuations may not be excessive given the potential for rapid expansion once mass production begins [6][7] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape will likely favor leading companies and their core component suppliers, with a focus on those with technological advantages and proven supply chain capabilities [7]