Introduction - The current global environment is characterized by a "chaotic period" as the old order is being disrupted and the new order is not yet clear [3][11] - The recommended asset allocation strategy is a "global barbell strategy" that is anti-fragile and based on an all-weather approach [3][11] 2025H1 Overseas Asset Market Review - The narrative of American exceptionalism is fading, facing three major challenges: the emergence of Deepseek affecting US-China tech narratives, concerns over fiscal tightening due to Musk's Doge initiative, and uncertainties from tariff policies [3][12] - Non-US assets have generally outperformed US assets in the first half of 2025 [12] Winning Probability - Global growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, with the growth momentum between the US and non-US regions likely to converge [15] - Factors causing marginal changes include policy uncertainty damaging market confidence and delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [24] - The overall economic headwinds for the US may ease compared to the first half of the year, but recession risks remain [44] Odds - US assets are currently overvalued compared to non-US assets, indicating asymmetric risks [5][45] - The implied risk pricing for US assets does not adequately reflect the potential for recession, suggesting a need for caution [45][46] Outlook for 2025H2: Global Asset Allocation - The global asset allocation should still follow the anti-fragile "barbell strategy," focusing on three core contradictions: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [72][75] - The strategy involves investing in a majority of low-risk assets while allocating a smaller portion to high-risk, high-reward assets [75] - Specific recommendations include over-allocating to Chinese government bonds and emerging markets in Southeast Asia, while maintaining a cautious stance on US equities due to potential volatility [75][88][104]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition period between the old and new global order, emphasizing the need for a "global barbell strategy" for asset allocation in response to the current chaotic environment. It highlights that the key to success in the second half of 2025 lies in understanding the win rates for Chinese assets and the odds for U.S. assets [3][11]. Group 1: 2025H1 Overseas Asset Market Review - The narrative of American exceptionalism is fading, challenged by three main factors: the emergence of Deepseek affecting U.S.-China tech narratives, concerns over U.S. fiscal tightening led by Musk's Doge initiative, and the introduction of reciprocal tariffs increasing uncertainty around U.S. dollar hegemony [3][12]. - Non-U.S. assets outperformed U.S. assets in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in market dynamics [12]. Group 2: Win Rates - Global growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, with the growth momentum between the U.S. and non-U.S. regions likely to converge [15]. - The introduction of tariffs and the subsequent easing of these measures have led to a shift in market expectations regarding U.S. economic performance, with potential recession risks still looming [19][44]. Group 3: Odds - U.S. assets are currently overvalued compared to non-U.S. assets, indicating asymmetric risks that investors should be cautious of [5][45]. - The article warns that the pricing of U.S. assets does not adequately reflect the risks of a potential recession, suggesting that the market is underestimating the structural risks associated with U.S. economic policies [46][94]. Group 4: Outlook for 2025H2 - The global asset allocation strategy should continue to focus on the "global barbell strategy," which balances low-risk assets with high-risk, high-reward investments [72][75]. - The article identifies three core contradictions driving the new investment paradigm: rising anti-globalization, debt cycle misalignment, and the accelerating trend of AI industries [9][72]. - Specific asset classes recommended include Chinese government bonds, gold, and equities from emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing global economic shifts [88][104].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses asset allocation strategies in response to the narrative of "East Rising, West Falling," emphasizing the importance of adapting investment strategies to changing global dynamics [2]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The All Weather Strategy outlines different asset allocation percentages based on risk preferences, with Chinese government bonds, gold, and convertible bonds being key components [2]. - For low-risk preference, the allocation includes 34.18% in Chinese government bonds and 17.99% in Chinese convertible bonds [2]. - For medium-risk preference, the allocation shifts to 24.00% in Chinese government bonds and 21.05% in Chinese convertible bonds [2]. - High-risk preference sees allocations of 14.16% in Chinese government bonds and 24.83% in Chinese convertible bonds [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Indicators - The correlation among S&P 500 component stocks is at a historical low, suggesting a potential for mean reversion in 2025 [3]. - The current equity risk premium (ERP) for the "Seven Sisters" of U.S. stocks is not favorable, indicating a less attractive valuation environment [4]. - The overall market excluding the "Seven Sisters" also shows a low ERP, reinforcing the notion of high valuations in the U.S. market [5]. Group 3: Historical Performance Analysis - The Hang Seng Index has experienced over six weeks of consecutive gains, which historically leads to varied performance in Chinese stocks [6][7]. - Historical data indicates that after similar performance patterns, sectors such as low volatility, dividend yield, and value factors tend to underperform in the following months [8]. - The article suggests focusing on lagging sectors with high dividend yields and value characteristics rather than chasing leading sectors after significant market rallies [8].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 引言： 开年以来，"Deepseek"触发中美科技此消彼长叙事，恒生科技为代表的中国科技资产领涨全球，而美股&美元表 现不佳。战略层面："Deepseek"带来中国科技资产的价值重估，但并未逆转（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋 势）三大底层逻辑，因此，全球资产配置仍然是反脆弱的"全球杠铃策略"。而战术层面："全球杠铃策略"应该如何调整，来 应对"东升西落"的新叙事？ ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "Deepseek" narrative on global asset allocation, emphasizing the rise of Chinese technology assets while U.S. stocks and the dollar perform poorly. It suggests a "global barbell strategy" for asset allocation to navigate the changing dynamics of East rising and West declining [3][10]. Group 1: U.S. Stocks - U.S. stocks are expected to shift from low volatility to high volatility, leading to a reduction in their weight in asset allocation. The S&P 500 has maintained low volatility due to low correlation among its components, driven by the divergence between tech and non-tech stocks under the AI narrative [4][15]. - By 2025, factors such as mean reversion, recession pressures, and the breaking of the current AI trend will likely increase the correlation among S&P 500 stocks, resulting in higher volatility and necessitating a decrease in U.S. stock allocation [16][15]. Group 2: Chinese Stocks - Short-term, the Hong Kong stock market has shown signs of exhaustion after six consecutive weeks of gains, suggesting a wait for policy implementation and validation of the tech narrative. Historical data indicates that after such streaks, it is advisable to focus on lagging sectors like banks and utilities rather than chasing leading stocks [5][20]. - Long-term, the current rally in Chinese stocks is deemed healthier compared to previous policy-driven credit pulses. The weight of Chinese tech assets in portfolios should be increased, as the valuation gap between Chinese and U.S. tech stocks remains historically high, indicating potential for narrowing [5][24]. Group 3: Chinese Government Bonds - Chinese government bonds have not transitioned to a bearish phase but require more attention to timing due to increased volatility. The shift from passive to active deleveraging in the private sector suggests that the downward space for bond yields will narrow [6][43]. - The current yield on 10-year government bonds is approximately 1.8%, pricing in a 20 basis point rate cut. A trading range of 1.6% to 1.9% is recommended for core transactions [6][44].

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn ● 美股：低波动—>高波动，下调↓权重。 过去两年，标普500维持偏低的波动率，一定程度上源自内部成分股之间偏低的相 关性，偏低的相关性则源自AI产业叙事下（7姐妹为代表的）美股科技龙头与非科技龙头间的分化，增加美股的分散性。当 前，标普500内部成分股间的相关性仍处于历史低点。我们判断，2025年，均值回归的牵引力、美国经济衰退压力（美股或 面临系统风险）、美国AI产业趋势一枝独秀的格局被打破（科技股独立行情门槛变高）等因素都将带来美股个股间相关性提 升（美股科技龙头与非科技龙头之间的分化将收敛）—>美股波动率加大—>资产配置组合中下调↓美股权重。 ● 中资股： 短期事缓则圆，中长期行情驱动力有望更健康。 短期视角，我们在 25.2.28《牛市二阶段，事缓则圆》 提示： 周线6连阳后，港股短期行情有所透支，事缓则圆，等待政策落地和科技产业叙事验证。从历史经验看6连阳后不建议追涨领 先板块，反而应关注本轮落后的低波、股息、价值、质量因子，如：银行、公用事业、石油石化、电信服务等。更长期视 角，本轮 ...

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 全球大类资产表现与宏观交易主线 ：（3.10-3.18），全球大类资产表现分化，权益>大宗>债券。全球大类资产交易 主线仍然围绕"美国衰退交易"，但程度较3月初有所缓和：10Y美债利率和美元指数延续回落趋势但幅度显著缓和，美 股仍弱于全球股市但下跌幅度同样有所缓和。 ● 大类资产配置——新投资范式下，"全球杠铃策略"是反脆弱时代嬗变下全球资产配置的最佳应对。 特朗普2.0 难以逆转（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、AI产业趋势）三大底层逻辑，甚至一定程度上加大全球政治经济不确 定性。战略层面，全球资产配置仍是反脆弱的"杠铃策略"。一端是确定性稳健资产：（1）债券：债务收缩期， 中国利率债调整后再次迎来配置良机；（2）权益：债务收缩期，战略配置中资股杠铃策略（红利+科技）、泛东 南亚股市；（3）另类：黄金的超国家主权信用价值是应对逆全球化新投资范式的必需配置。另一端是高收益高 波动资产：把握AI产业趋势下的美股及中国AI产业链基础设施建设向下游软件应用扩散的丰富机会。特朗普上台 后的政策节 ...

Global Macro Trends - Global stock indices showed divergence from February 24 to March 5, with European and Hong Kong stocks leading gains while U.S. stocks lagged behind [8][9] - U.S. economic data suggests potential stagflation risks, putting pressure on U.S. stocks, while China's government work report indicates a continuation of fiscal stimulus and support for the real estate and stock markets [9][10] Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response to the evolving investment landscape characterized by three underlying logics: rising anti-globalization, misalignment in debt cycles, and the trend of AI industries [3][10] - The strategy emphasizes a mix of low-risk, stable assets (such as bonds, Chinese equities, and gold) and high-yield, high-volatility assets (such as U.S. stocks and the Chinese AI industry) to maximize returns while providing safety margins [11][10] Focus Data and Events - Key economic indicators and events are scheduled from March 10 to March 21, including China's February M2 growth rate and new RMB loans, which are critical for assessing economic health [12][13] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring global economic data releases and central bank decisions, particularly from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [13][12] Focus Charts - The report includes dynamic tracking of global asset classes, reflecting tight dollar liquidity and increasing financial pressure in the U.S. [14][3] - Key indicators such as the LIBOR-OIS spread and the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index are monitored to gauge market conditions and economic expectations [3][14]