Global Macro Trends - The "再TACO" trading process indicates a weak rebound in stock risk appetite, with Bitcoin experiencing a significant drop and gold's decline slowing down [3][9] - External liquidity is tightening, influenced by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and marginal fluctuations in the Federal Reserve's December rate cut expectations [3][9] - The domestic focus is on the recently announced 15th Five-Year Plan, which highlights key areas for future attention [10][13] Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response to the evolving global asset allocation landscape in a post-fragile era, emphasizing three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in AI industries [4][15] - Strategic asset allocation includes Chinese interest rate bonds, U.S. short-term government bonds, Chinese convertible bonds, Southeast Asian equities, high-dividend and high-growth Chinese stocks, and gold [4][15] - Tactical recommendations suggest a shift towards high-dividend and thematic growth stocks in the A-share market, reflecting a similar market environment to that of 2014-2015, characterized by weak economic conditions, low interest rates, and policy encouragement [16] Market Dynamics and Trends - The A-share market has shown a more distinct style compared to the Hong Kong market, with a notable effect of retail investors moving their savings into the stock market [16] - The report suggests maintaining a barbell strategy that combines high-dividend stocks with growth-oriented investments, particularly in the context of short-term market fluctuations [5][16] Economic Indicators and Data - Key economic indicators and events are scheduled for release, including China's CPI and PPI, U.S. CPI, and various Eurozone economic metrics, which are deemed important for market analysis [18][19] - The report tracks significant financial data, including the widening SOFR-OIS spread and the marginal decline in the U.S. financial conditions index, reflecting liquidity pressures [5][24]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in global asset prices due to heightened risk aversion stemming from US-China tariff issues, leading to significant volatility in precious metals and a weak rebound in risk assets [3][9][10] - The US government shutdown continues, and expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remain high, with a 98% probability of a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [9][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy directions as significant meetings approach, particularly regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan in China [10] Group 2 - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response to the evolving investment paradigm, focusing on three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry [4][13] - The strategic asset allocation includes Chinese interest rate bonds, US short-term treasuries, convertible bonds, Southeast Asian equities, high-dividend and high-growth Chinese stocks, and gold [4][13] - The tactical approach suggests that the current market resembles the A-share market conditions of 2014-2015, characterized by weak economic performance, low interest rates, and policy encouragement, with a focus on high-dividend and thematic growth stocks [4][14] Group 3 - Key economic data and events are outlined, including upcoming GDP releases from Germany and the Eurozone, as well as manufacturing PMI data from China and the US [15][17] - The article highlights the importance of monitoring the economic surprise index and financial conditions index in the US, which reflect the overall financial pressure levels and economic performance relative to market expectations [5][29]

Global Macro Trends - Global risk assets are under pressure due to economic slowdown and geopolitical trade uncertainties, while safe-haven assets like bonds and gold perform well [3][10] - The U.S. manufacturing activity in August shows increased contraction, raising recession concerns, alongside trade policy uncertainties impacting market volatility [3][10] - The market maintains high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, despite rising concerns over fiscal deficits and Fed independence pushing up U.S. Treasury yields [3][10] - Domestic manufacturing PMI in China has contracted for five consecutive months, indicating weak economic momentum, yet A-shares and Hong Kong stocks show resilience [3][10] Asset Allocation Strategy - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is recommended as the optimal response to the evolving investment paradigm, emphasizing a mix of long-term and tactical asset allocations [4][16] - Strategic allocations include Chinese government bonds, U.S. short-term Treasuries, convertible bonds, and equities from Southeast Asia, particularly India, alongside high-dividend and AI-related assets [4][16] - Tactical allocations suggest a shift towards growth stocks aligned with high-quality development, reducing high-dividend stock proportions in favor of more elastic investments [5][16] Key Economic Indicators - The SOFR-OIS spread has widened, indicating tightening liquidity in the dollar funding market [4][18] - The U.S. financial conditions index has improved, reflecting a slight easing in overall financial conditions [4][20] - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index remains positive but shows signs of weakening, indicating that economic data is marginally underperforming market expectations [4][24] Upcoming Economic Events - Key economic data releases include China's foreign exchange reserves, trade balance, and CPI, as well as U.S. PPI and retail sales figures [17]

Global Asset Performance and Macro Trading Themes - Equity assets significantly outperformed commodities and bonds from August 11 to August 19, leading investors to increase equity risk exposure while maintaining a defensive stance in the bond market [3][9] - Global market risk appetite has shown fluctuations, with recent US-Russia talks boosting sentiment, but concerns arose following Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech, leading to a retreat in US rate cut expectations [3][9] - In the domestic market, the "deposit migration" phenomenon has positively impacted equity performance, supported by easing external tensions and the effectiveness of domestic "anti-involution" policies [3][10] Asset Allocation - Global Barbell Strategy - The new investment paradigm emphasizes a "global barbell strategy" as the optimal response to the evolving landscape, driven by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry [4][14] - The strategic focus remains on an all-weather optimized barbell strategy, including Chinese government bonds, US short-term treasuries, convertible bonds, Southeast Asian equities, high-dividend Chinese stocks, and gold [4][14] - Tactical adjustments suggest a shift towards growth stocks aligned with high-quality development, reducing high-dividend allocations in favor of more elastic assets [5][14] Key Data: Global Economic Indicators and Event Calendar - A calendar of significant global economic data releases from August 24 to September 7 includes key indicators such as China's official composite PMI and the Eurozone's unemployment rate, highlighting their importance for market participants [15][17] Focus Charts: Global Asset Dynamics Tracking - The report includes various charts tracking financial conditions, economic surprises, and market indices, indicating a mixed outlook for the US economy and potential volatility in consumer confidence [21][24][28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of renewed recession concerns in the US and tariff disruptions on global risk assets, leading to a decline in industrial metals and equities, while safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries have risen [3][4] - The article discusses the "global barbell strategy" as the optimal response for asset allocation in a fragile era, emphasizing the need for a diversified approach that includes Chinese government bonds, US short-term Treasuries, and high-dividend stocks in China, among others [4][11] - It notes that the Chinese risk assets have outperformed those in the US, with the Shanghai Composite Index continuing its upward trend supported by liquidity easing [3][4] Group 2 - The article outlines key economic data and events scheduled from August 10 to August 24, including important indicators such as the US CPI and Eurozone GDP [12][15] - It provides a detailed tracking of global asset dynamics, indicating a widening SOFR-OIS spread and a decline in the US financial conditions index, reflecting a tightening of overall financial conditions in the US [18][20] - The article mentions that the US consumer confidence index has shown fluctuations, which typically correlates with increased volatility in US equities [28][31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the differentiated performance of global major asset classes, with Chinese equity assets leading the rise and industrial metals experiencing a broad increase due to domestic policies and infrastructure plans [3][4] - The "global barbell strategy" is proposed as the optimal response for asset allocation in the context of a changing investment paradigm, emphasizing a mix of Chinese interest rate bonds, US short-term treasuries, and high-quality growth stocks [4][8] - Recent data indicates a widening SOFR-OIS spread, reflecting tightening liquidity in the US repo market, and a decline in the US financial conditions index, suggesting a deterioration in overall financial conditions [4][14] Group 2 - The tactical approach suggests that the current market resembles a micro-version of the 2014-2015 A-share market, characterized by weak economic conditions, low interest rates, and supportive policies, with domestic capital driving the market [8][29] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key economic indicators, such as China's industrial enterprise profits and the US ADP employment change, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [11][12] - The focus on high-quality growth stocks aligns with the trend of residents reallocating savings into the stock market, favoring thematic investments that meet high-quality development directions [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition period between the old and new global order, emphasizing the need for a "global barbell strategy" for asset allocation in response to the current chaotic environment. It highlights that the key to success in the second half of 2025 lies in understanding the win rates for Chinese assets and the odds for U.S. assets [3][11]. Group 1: 2025H1 Overseas Asset Market Review - The narrative of American exceptionalism is fading, challenged by three main factors: the emergence of Deepseek affecting U.S.-China tech narratives, concerns over U.S. fiscal tightening led by Musk's Doge initiative, and the introduction of reciprocal tariffs increasing uncertainty around U.S. dollar hegemony [3][12]. - Non-U.S. assets outperformed U.S. assets in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in market dynamics [12]. Group 2: Win Rates - Global growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, with the growth momentum between the U.S. and non-U.S. regions likely to converge [15]. - The introduction of tariffs and the subsequent easing of these measures have led to a shift in market expectations regarding U.S. economic performance, with potential recession risks still looming [19][44]. Group 3: Odds - U.S. assets are currently overvalued compared to non-U.S. assets, indicating asymmetric risks that investors should be cautious of [5][45]. - The article warns that the pricing of U.S. assets does not adequately reflect the risks of a potential recession, suggesting that the market is underestimating the structural risks associated with U.S. economic policies [46][94]. Group 4: Outlook for 2025H2 - The global asset allocation strategy should continue to focus on the "global barbell strategy," which balances low-risk assets with high-risk, high-reward investments [72][75]. - The article identifies three core contradictions driving the new investment paradigm: rising anti-globalization, debt cycle misalignment, and the accelerating trend of AI industries [9][72]. - Specific asset classes recommended include Chinese government bonds, gold, and equities from emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing global economic shifts [88][104].

Global Asset Performance and Macro Trading Themes - Global major asset classes experienced a broad rally from June 16 to June 24, with risk assets represented by equities showing significant recovery [4][12] - The ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel on June 24 positively impacted market sentiment, leading to a notable rebound in global risk assets, while safe-haven assets like gold retreated [4][13] Asset Allocation - Global Barbell Strategy - Long-term investors need to deeply interpret the direction of the reshaping world order and weigh the cost-effectiveness of various assets, while paying attention to asymmetric pricing risks in their portfolios [5][17] - The new paradigm is reinforced by three underlying logics: intensified de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry, with the strategic focus remaining on the all-weather adjustment of the "global barbell strategy" [5][18] - A statistical analysis of historical U.S. recession trading intervals revealed the volatility amplification factors for various assets, with the ranking being: Nasdaq > India SENSEX30 > Hang Seng Tech > U.S. Treasuries > Gold > Chinese Bonds > Bitcoin > National Bond Convertible Bonds > A-share Dividends [5][18] - Adjustments to asset allocation based on revised volatility factors indicate an increase in weight for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing weight for Nasdaq, India SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Tech [5][18] Focus Data: Global Economic Data and Event Calendar - The economic data calendar from June 30 to July 13 includes significant indicators such as China's official manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 49.5, and the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June, expected to be 48.5 [20] - Other important data points include the unemployment rate in Germany and the Eurozone CPI for June, with the latter expected to be 1.9% [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for long-term investors to deeply interpret the reshaping of the global order and assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets, particularly in light of the increasing risks associated with U.S. recession and the implications of new investment paradigms [3][10]. Group 1: Introduction - The article discusses two key variables at the beginning of the year: Deepseek and equivalent tariffs, which reinforce the underlying logic of a new investment paradigm characterized by increasing de-globalization, trends in AI industries, and debt cycles [3][10]. - It suggests that the global risk premium has risen, potentially amplifying asymmetric pricing risks, particularly regarding the underpricing of recession risks in major asset classes [3][10]. Group 2: U.S. Recession Trading - Historical data indicates that U.S. recession trading often begins 1-6 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a recession [4][47]. - Typical characteristics during U.S. recession trading include declines in U.S. stocks and industrial metals, falling 10-year Treasury yields, widening credit spreads, and defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks [4][47]. Group 3: Volatility During Recession Trading - The article notes that during past U.S. recession trading phases, asset volatility has generally increased, with risk assets experiencing greater volatility than safe-haven assets [5][65]. - Specific examples include the Nasdaq and Hang Seng Index showing higher volatility compared to gold and U.S. Treasuries during recession periods [5][65]. Group 4: All-Weather Strategy Model - The article proposes an all-weather strategy model to adjust for the underestimation of U.S. recession risks, focusing on the asymmetric pricing risks present in current asset allocations [6][73]. - It ranks various assets based on their volatility amplification factors during past recession trading periods, with Nasdaq, Indian SENSEX30, and Hang Seng Technology leading the list [6][73]. - The model suggests adjusting asset weights based on these factors, increasing allocations to underweighted assets like Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends while reducing exposure to overvalued assets like Nasdaq and Indian SENSEX30 [6][73].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for long-term investors to deeply interpret the reshaping of the global order and assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets, particularly in light of the underestimation of U.S. recession risks in global asset pricing [3][20][46]. Group 1: Introduction - The beginning of the year has seen two key variables (Deepseek and equivalent tariffs) that reinforce the underlying logic of a new investment paradigm, characterized by increasing de-globalization, trends in AI industries, and debt cycles [3][10]. - The global risk premium has risen, potentially amplifying asymmetric pricing risks, with current global risk assets having largely recovered to levels prior to the imposition of equivalent tariffs [3][20]. Group 2: U.S. Recession Trading - Historical data shows that U.S. recession trading often begins 1-6 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a recession [4][47]. - Typical characteristics during U.S. recession trading include declines in U.S. stocks and industrial metals, falling 10-year Treasury yields, widening U.S. credit spreads, and defensive stocks outperforming cyclical stocks [4][47]. Group 3: Volatility During Recession Trading - During past U.S. recession trading phases, asset volatility has increased, with risk assets experiencing greater volatility than safe-haven assets [5][65]. - The volatility amplification factors for risk assets (e.g., Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index) are higher than those for safe-haven assets (e.g., gold, U.S. Treasuries) [5][65]. Group 4: All-Weather Strategy Model - The article discusses how to adjust the all-weather strategy model to correct the underestimation of U.S. recession risks in asset pricing [6][73]. - The model suggests that the risk parity principle should be applied based on the adjusted volatility of various assets, leading to changes in asset allocation [6][73]. - The revised model indicates an increase in allocation for Chinese convertible bonds and A-share dividends, while reducing allocations for Nasdaq and Indian SENSEX30 [6][73]. Group 5: Asymmetric Pricing Risks - The current global investment landscape shows a significant underpricing of U.S. recession risks, which presents an opportunity for asymmetric trading strategies [20][46]. - The article highlights the importance of adjusting asset allocations to account for the potential impact of U.S. recession risks on various asset classes [20][46].