21世纪经济报道特约撰稿王应贵 据新华社报道，美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔8月22日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会 上发表讲话，暗示尽管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储仍可能在未来数月降息。 受重大利好消息刺激，当日美股四大指数齐涨，以绩优股为主的道琼斯30种工业股票平均指数上涨 859.5点，即1.95%，标准普尔500指数涨97.5点，即1.53%，以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数涨396.22点， 即1.88%，以小盘股为主的罗素2000涨87.85点，即3.86%。 最近一个月，美股四大指数分别上涨了1.63%、1.23%、1.84%、4.48%，表明不少投资者在抛售风险较 高的大盘股，把资金投向了小盘股，股票市场正悄然发生变化。 另一方面，鲍威尔竭力淡化连续降息的可能性。他指出，在过去四年多里，通货膨胀超过目标值2%； 关税对消费价格的影响已显而易见，在未来几个月影响依然存在；美联储最关切的问题是物价上涨是否 会大幅提升目前的通胀水平。不过，鲍威尔颇有几分自信地认为，关税所引起的物价上涨效应会相对短 暂，但关税效应并非一次性调整到位，而是需要时间扩散到整个供应链；鉴于目前就业市场偏软，工资 成本压 ...

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by tariffs and geopolitical tensions, the Shanghai precious metals market closed higher across the board. Trump's decision to raise steel and aluminum import tariffs from 25% to 50% led to a sharp increase in market risk - aversion, causing a significant short - term rise in gold prices. [2] - In the short term, gold may face insufficient upward momentum. The US May ISM Manufacturing PMI hit a new low since November 2024, indicating potential upward pressure on the economy. [2] - Fed officials' dovish signals on interest - rate cuts have boosted expectations of Fed rate cuts. Global gold ETFs showed a net outflow in May, but central bank gold purchases have offset some of the outflows. [2] - Geopolitical risks are continuously rising, which has continuously boosted the safe - haven property of gold. Silver has maintained a strong trend due to the strength of gold prices, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline in the short term. [2] - In the long term, the US debt problem may lead to a long - term global de - dollarization trend, which is structurally beneficial to gold prices. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, and it may maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 783.1 yuan/gram, up 11.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8456 yuan/kg, up 238 yuan. [2] - The positions of the Shanghai Gold main contract were 180,833 lots, down 413 lots; the positions of the Shanghai Silver main contract were 370,146 lots, up 36,120 lots. [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 125,869 lots, up 888 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 144,704 lots, down 8,409 lots. [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 17,247 kg, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 1,068,846 kg, up 1,961 kg. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 781.3 yuan/gram, up 14.8 yuan; the silver spot price was 8425 yuan/kg, up 245 yuan. [2] - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 1.8 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 31 yuan/kg, up 7 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand - Gold ETF holdings were 933.07 tons, up 2.87 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,351.82 tons, up 48.07 tons. [2] - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 174,184 contracts, up 10,203 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 53,012 contracts, up 2,970 contracts. [2] - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. [2] - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 22.57%, up 0.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.14%, down 0.12 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 23.13%, down 0.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.14%, down 0.27 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The EU is deeply regretful about Trump's decision to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% on June 4, which has increased economic uncertainty across the Atlantic. [2] - The Trump administration has requested the federal appellate court to block the order of the former District of Columbia Federal District Court ruling its tariff policy as "illegal". [2] - The Institute of International Finance has warned that the soaring US debt may trigger a global bond - market crisis. [2] - Fed official Goolsbee said that the direct impact of tariffs on the economy is unexpectedly limited, and interest rates are expected to decline in the next 12 - 18 months. [2] - The US May ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, a new low since November 2024. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The gold price rebounded strongly this week due to factors such as Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and fiscal concerns triggered by Trump's tax - cut bill. In the medium - to - long - term, the gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and a weaker US dollar, while the silver price follows the gold price but is relatively soft due to economic uncertainties, yet its demand remains resilient [7]. - For the outlook, the previously released CPI and PPI data suggest potential Fed rate cuts this year, but tariff policy uncertainties and the US debt problem may make the global de - dollarization trend persist. Gold investment demand is solid, and in the case of silver, although the price is affected by gold, the silver - gold ratio has moved up [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Drivers**: The gold price rebounded due to factors like Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating, tensions in the Middle East, and fiscal concerns from Trump's tax - cut bill. The downgraded dollar credit rating and potential future debt increases provide long - term support for the gold price. However, the strong US labor market led to a short - term strengthening of the dollar, suppressing the gold price. The silver price followed the gold price but was relatively soft, and its demand remains resilient [7]. - **Market Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, the gold price is supported by safe - haven demand and a weaker dollar. The silver price is affected by the gold price, and the silver - gold ratio has moved up due to economic uncertainties [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: As of May 23, 2025, COMEX gold was at $3324.7 per ounce, up 4.30% week - on - week; Shanghai gold futures were at 780.10 yuan per gram, up 3.76%. COMEX silver was at $33.38 per ounce, up 3.16%; Shanghai silver futures were at 8263 yuan per kilogram, up 1.95% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of May 22, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 0.44% to 923.89 tons, while the SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 0.55% to 14132.66 tons [16]. - **COMEX Positions**: As of May 13, 2025, COMEX gold total positions decreased by 2.56% to 440842 contracts, and net positions decreased by 0.79% to 161209 contracts. COMEX silver total positions decreased by 1.43% to 138262 contracts, and net positions decreased by 3.04% to 47754 contracts [19]. - **Basis Changes**: As of May 23, 2025, the gold basis was - 4.38 yuan per gram, down 87.98% week - on - week, and the silver basis was - 19 yuan per kilogram, up 42.42% [23]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX and Shanghai gold and silver inventories showed mixed changes [24]. 3. Industry Situation - **Silver Industry**: As of the end of March 2025, China's silver import volume decreased. The year - on - year growth rate of downstream integrated circuit production slowed down, and the overall silver supply - demand was in a tight - balance state [34][36]. - **Gold Industry**: This week, the gold recycling price and jewelry price continued to rise, and the gold investment demand increased month - on - month [41][47]. 4. Macro and Options - **Macro Data**: This week, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased significantly. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened, the CBOE gold volatility rebounded, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio decreased [50][55].