投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-23 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24885.00 8161.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | 202512 ...

当地时间12月22日，美股市场三大指数全线上涨，大型科技股涨跌不一，特斯拉、英伟达、谷歌-C、亚马逊、META均上涨，微软、苹果下跌。欧洲股市 全线下跌，英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指数、德国DAX指数均小幅下跌。 消息面上，意大利竞争与市场管理局（AGCM）周一表示，已对美国科技巨头苹果及其两家子公司处以9860万欧元罚款，原因是其涉嫌在移动应用市场滥 用支配地位。 银行股普遍上涨，摩根大通上涨1.87%，高盛集团上涨0.60%，花旗集团上涨2.79%，摩根士丹利上涨1.52%，美国银行上涨1.05%，富国银行上涨1.35%。 热门中概股多数上涨。纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨0.58%，阿特斯太阳能涨逾10%，爱奇艺、搜狐、晶科能源、好未来等涨逾2%，阿里巴巴、小鹏汽车、 新东方等小幅上涨。 现货黄金价格、现货白银价格大涨，均再次创下历史新高。 美股三大指数全线上涨 当地时间12月22日，欧洲主要股指全线下跌，截至收盘，英国富时100指数下跌0.32%，法国CAC40指数下跌0.37%，德国DAX指数下跌0.05%，意大利 MIB指数下跌0.37%，欧洲STOXX50指数下跌0.29%。 美股三大指数全线 ...

12月22日，现货黄金站上4400美元/盎司，为史上首次，年初至今累计上涨逾67%。 截至发稿，现货黄金日内涨超1%，报4398.11美元/盎司。 高盛集团分析师Daan Struyven和Samantha Dart上周末在报告中表示，预计黄金明年将进一步上涨，基准 情景为每盎司4900美元，且存在上行风险。他们指出，ETF投资者正开始与各国央行竞争有限的黄金供 应。 国联期货研报认为，中长期维度下，支撑贵金属价格走强的核心逻辑（信用货币体系重构、地缘与政策 不确定性对冲需求、全球央行持续购金等）并未发生本质性改变，中长期上行趋势仍具坚实基础；12月 美联储政策靴子落地后，准备金管理购买（RMP）每月400亿美元的操作将为市场提供流动性支撑，贵 金属价格中枢仍趋于上行。 责任编辑：秦艺 12月22日，现货黄金站上4400美元/盎司，为史上首次，年初至今累计上涨逾67%。 截至发稿，现货黄金日内涨超1%，报4398.11美元/盎司。 高盛集团分析师Daan Struyven和Samantha Dart上周末在报告中表示，预计黄金明年将进一步上涨，基准 情景为每盎司4900美元，且存在上行风险。他们指出，ETF投 ...

高盛集团分析师Daan Struyven和Samantha Dart上周末在报告中表示，预计黄金明年将进一步上涨，基准情景为每盎司4900美元，且存在上行风 险。他们指出，ETF投资者正开始与各国央行竞争有限的黄金供应。 12月22日，现货黄金站上4400美元/盎司，为史上首次，年初至今累计上涨逾67%。 截至发稿，现货黄金日内涨超1%，报4398.11美元/盎司。 国联期货研报认为，中长期维度下，支撑贵金属价格走强的核心逻辑(信用货币体系重构、地缘与政策不确定性对冲需求、全球央行持续购金等) 并未发生本质性改变，中长期上行趋势仍具坚实基础；12月美联储政策靴子落地后，准备金管理购买(RMP)每月400亿美元的操作将为市场提供流 动性支撑，贵金属价格中枢仍趋于上行。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have significantly boosted international gold prices, with London spot gold reaching a historic high of $3,703.13 per ounce on September 16 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Market Performance - On September 16, London spot gold prices surpassed the $3,700 per ounce mark for the first time, achieving a peak of $3,703.13 per ounce, marking a historical high [1] Economic Factors - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as a major driver for the gold market, with industry experts suggesting that a series of rate cuts within the year is highly probable [1] - The ongoing "rate cut cycle" is identified as a core trading logic for gold, leading to expectations that gold prices are likely to rise while facing challenges in declining [1] Long-term Outlook - Factors supporting the long-term upward trend in gold prices include global geopolitical tensions, high U.S. debt levels, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle [1] - Industry professionals believe that despite potential short-term volatility, the long-term positive trend for gold remains intact [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices has transformed it from a traditional safe-haven asset into a high-risk investment, particularly among younger investors who treat it like a stock for short-term trading [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since May, gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with daily price changes often exceeding 2%, comparable to tech stocks [3]. - The interplay of three main forces is driving this volatility: hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve boosting the dollar index, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations reducing safe-haven demand, and ongoing gold purchases by global central banks providing a support mechanism [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Younger investors, particularly those born in the 1990s, now account for 47% of bank gold accumulation business, showing a trend of frequent trading and a preference for short-term gains [3]. - This shift in investment strategy contrasts sharply with older generations who view gold as a long-term asset for wealth preservation [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Lessons - Historical instances of gold price drops, such as a 9% decline in 2008 and prolonged losses after the 2013 buying spree by Chinese retail investors, highlight the risks associated with short-term trading in gold [3]. - The current market conditions serve as a reminder that all assets have cyclical patterns, and chasing price movements can lead to significant risks [4].