据央视新闻，当地时间1月9日，美国最高法院表示，当天不会就特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权利法》（IEEPA）做出的全球对等关税作出裁 决。这意味着市场可能要继续等待下一个"意见日"。 据追风交易台消息，据美银Aditya Bhave团队9日发布的研报，尽管博彩市场认为关税被推翻的概率较大，但无论结果如何，政府都可能通过其他 法定授权来填补收入缺口，贸易政策对今年经济增长的支持基调并未改变。 若IEEPA关税被法院驳回，美银预计债券收益率将因财政赤字担忧而上升，而股市则因零售商利润率压力缓解及财政立场的放松而上涨。在此情 境下，行政当局极有可能迅速启用第122条、第232条及第301条等替代性法律条款，以试图挽回部分关税收入，这可能导致特定行业的关税结构出 现剧烈波动。 反之，若关税意外获得支持，市场反应将走向反面，即债券收益率和股市下行。值得注意的是，当前的关税收入已因进口替代和豁免措施而低于 预期，实际征收率仅为11.2%，显著低于理论测算的14.5%，这在一定程度上缓冲了裁决结果对实体经济的直接冲击。 在裁决落地的关键窗口期，投资者亟需理清从裁决概率、后续政策演变到资产价格波动的核心逻辑。以下是市场最关注 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing pain felt by various industries due to China's rare earth export control measures, prompting foreign manufacturers to accelerate the establishment of their own rare earth supply chains [1][3] - U.S. rare earth manufacturers express confidence in their ability to make significant progress within a year, indicating a strong demand for rare earth resources that have traditionally been supplied by China [1][3] - China controls approximately 70% of global rare earth mining, 85% of refining capacity, and about 90% of rare earth metal alloys and magnet production, showcasing its monopolistic position in the global rare earth processing sector [3] Group 2 - From 2020 to 2023, 70% of U.S. rare earth compounds and metals were imported from China, highlighting the U.S. reliance on Chinese supplies and the determination to reduce this dependency [3] - Some U.S. scholars and media express skepticism about the future of the U.S. rare earth industry, suggesting that the era of U.S. dominance may be coming to an end [3][5] - The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is heavily reliant on China, with over 60% of daily medications and raw materials sourced from China, indicating a significant vulnerability in the U.S. healthcare supply chain [5][7] Group 3 - The article suggests that if the U.S. continues its policies of manufacturing repatriation and tariff threats, it may lead to a situation where American pharmaceutical companies could abandon the U.S. market, resulting in a potential shortage of medications [7] - The actions taken by the U.S. under the Trump administration are portrayed as exposing weaknesses in American hegemony, while China is advised to focus on its own development and respond appropriately to U.S. actions [7]

一群小企业在一场可能对共和党经济议程产生重大影响的法庭听证会上敦促美国贸易法庭阻止总统特朗 普4月2日挑起的全球对等关税。5月13日，这些企业和特朗普政府的律师在位于曼哈顿的美国国际贸易 法院发表了辩论。 该法院由三名法官组成的陪审团正在权衡是否发布针对这些关税的全国性禁令，以及如果发布，禁令将 持续多长时间。这些企业辩称，特朗普援引了虚假的国家紧急状态来为征税辩护，而司法部则表示，总 统的决定不应接受法院审查。陪审团尚未发布裁决，裁决将在稍后公布。 ...