受美国潜在关税影响，化学品及相关产品贸易顺差在2025年第一季度达到峰值，随后在第二、三季度持 续回落。 自俄乌冲突爆发后，欧盟大幅增加了自美国的能源进口。由此导致美国进口增幅超过全球其他地区，且 保持在相对较高水平。 欧盟原本寄希望于7月与美国达成的贸易协议能够缓解紧张的贸易关系，但现实并未如愿。欧盟委员会 希望美国下调钢铝关税，并对从酒类到医疗设备等一系列商品予以关税豁免。24日美国商务部长卢特尼 克在布鲁塞尔访问时将数字监管方式与降低钢铝关税挂钩。他表示，欧盟若想换取美国下调对其钢铁和 铝产品的关税，就必须先对其科技行业监管规则进行重新调整。欧盟内部担忧，美方的做法正威胁着贸 易协议的实质内容，在实际效果上使协议"空洞化"。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经布鲁塞尔11月25日电 欧盟统计局25日发布的数据显示，今年第三季度，欧盟对美国货物贸易 顺差为408亿欧元，较第二季度的471亿欧元顺差下降13.3%，与第一季度812亿欧元的贸易顺差相比则 大幅萎缩49.7%。 报告指出，第一季度之所以表现突出，是受美国将加征关税影响，欧盟对美出口大幅增长。 数据显示，第三季度欧盟在化学品及相关产品、机械与车辆、 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-25 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 ...

（原标题：特朗普准备关税"备胎方案"！修改对巴西商品关税范围） 大家好，简单关注一下特朗普的关税消息。 据悉，特朗普的团队正在幕后制定预案，以防最高法院推翻他所倚重的一项重要关税权力，希望在裁决 一旦不利时，能尽快用新的关税措施进行替代。 11月22日，据美国官员透露，商务部和美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）都已经研究了在法院裁决不利时 的"B计划"选项，其中包括动用《贸易法》第301条和第122条，这两项条款都赋予总统单方面加征关税 的权力。 第122条的权力可以让总统征收最高15%的关税——这个水平也是特朗普在与其他国家达成一些协议时 反复提到的数值——但最多只能持续150天。特朗普的贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗今年早些时候就曾表示，正 是因为这个时间限制，政府并不打算在很大程度上依赖这一条款。 特朗普还动用了《贸易扩展法》第232条，对包括钢铝、汽车在内的一些行业加征关税。政府不断宣布 新的232调查并加征新的关税，而且随着越来越多成品被纳入这些关税。一些贸易伙伴感到不满，其中 包括欧洲国家，他们认为这削弱了美欧贸易协议中对某些行业关税设置上限的安排。 但这些替代工具也存在风险——它们通常要么推进更慢，要么适用范 ...

Core Insights - The visit of Canadian Foreign Minister Anand to China is framed as a "de-escalation journey" amid rising tensions due to tariffs imposed by Canada on Chinese electric vehicles and steel, with China retaliating on agricultural products [1][3] - Despite political pressures, bilateral trade between Canada and China has shown resilience, with a reported trade volume of 133.3 billion CAD in 2024, marking a 6.1% year-on-year increase [3] - Canadian exports to China have increased by 7.8% in the first eight months of the year, highlighting the economic necessity for Canada to engage with China despite U.S. pressures [1][3] Trade Dynamics - The expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline has resulted in over 50% of Alberta's crude oil being exported to China, generating 2.78 billion CAD in revenue [3] - The liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects have also made significant progress, indicating a growing energy trade relationship between Canada and China [3] - The Canadian government is reviewing tariffs, signaling a potential shift towards restoring economic cooperation with China [3] U.S. Influence - U.S. intervention remains a constant factor, with media narratives emphasizing the sensitivity of Canada's engagement with China, urging caution [3] - The Australian Treasury's stance suggests that trade barriers are not a core interest, reflecting a broader understanding of the importance of economic ties, particularly as 96% of Canada's canola exports depend on the Chinese market [3] - The ability of Canada to navigate U.S. pressures while maintaining beneficial trade relations with China will be crucial for future cooperation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between Canada and the United States, historically characterized by close economic ties, is facing significant challenges due to protectionist policies initiated by former President Trump, leading to increased tariffs and a shift in Canada's trade strategy towards diversification and new markets [1][3][9]. Economic Impact - Over 70% of Canada's exports are directed towards the U.S., making the Canadian economy heavily reliant on American markets [1]. - Following the imposition of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, Canada's export volume significantly decreased, resulting in factory closures and job losses [1][3]. - By 2025, the export share to the U.S. dropped by 10 percentage points to 68%, while non-U.S. exports began to grow [5]. Political Response - The Canadian government, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, is actively seeking to reduce dependency on the U.S. by doubling exports to non-U.S. markets within ten years, aiming for an additional 300 billion CAD in revenue [4][5]. - Carney's administration is focusing on strengthening ties with countries like China and India, as well as engaging in free trade agreements with Indonesia and the UAE [5][7]. Trade Strategy - Canada is pivoting towards Asia, with a focus on enhancing trade relations with China, despite recent challenges due to tariffs on Canadian agricultural products [7][8]. - The government is also negotiating with Germany for technological cooperation and with the EU for defense collaboration, aiming to create a more diversified economic landscape [5][8]. Future Outlook - Despite the ongoing trade tensions and economic challenges, Canada is projected to maintain a modest economic growth rate of 1.2% in 2025, supported by its diversification strategy [9][11]. - The situation serves as a cautionary tale for smaller nations facing larger powers, emphasizing the importance of finding alternative markets and upgrading industries to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on a single country [11].

Group 1 - The core message indicates that Trump is signaling a continued willingness to ease tariffs, suggesting that the door remains open for negotiations [2][3] - The Trump administration is reportedly quietly relaxing several tariff policies, having exempted dozens of products from "reciprocal tariffs" and expressing a willingness to exclude more items from tariffs during trade agreements [3] - This shift in tariff policy is seen as a response to an internal belief that the U.S. should lower tariffs on goods not produced domestically, especially ahead of a Supreme Court hearing on "reciprocal tariffs" [3] Group 2 - Recently, Trump announced a 25% tariff on trucks and truck parts, and a 10% tariff on buses, effective November 1, as part of the expanded tariff exemption program for automakers [4] - A new list of product exemptions, referred to as "Attachment Two," includes items like gold, LED lights, and certain minerals, which are now or will be covered under Section 232 tariffs [4] - Future exemptions are anticipated, with a list called "Attachment Three" targeting products that cannot be grown, mined, or produced in the U.S., such as certain agricultural products and aircraft parts [4]

Core Insights - Trump is signaling a potential easing of tariff policies, indicating that the door remains open for negotiations [2][3] - The Trump administration has reportedly exempted dozens of products from "reciprocal tariffs" and is willing to exclude more items from tariffs during trade agreements [3] - The shift in tariff policy reflects an internal belief that the U.S. should lower tariffs on goods not produced domestically [3] Tariff Policy Changes - Trump announced a 25% tariff on trucks and truck parts, and a 10% tariff on buses starting November 1 [4] - The administration has expanded the tariff exemption program for automakers, allowing cost deductions for tariffs on vehicles and parts to be extended from 2027 to 2030 [4] - A new list of products eligible for tariff exemptions, referred to as "Attachment Three," includes items that the U.S. cannot produce, such as certain agricultural products and aircraft parts [4] Legal Framework and Future Actions - The administration is utilizing Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 to justify tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles [3][4] - The upcoming Supreme Court hearing on "reciprocal tariffs" could lead to significant changes in tariff enforcement if the government loses [3] - The Commerce Department and the U.S. Trade Representative's Office have been granted new powers to issue tariff exemptions without requiring a presidential executive order [4]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between U.S. President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney highlighted the competitive economic relationship between the two countries, with Trump expressing a view of Canada as an economic rival and suggesting the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state of the U.S. [1] Economic Relations - Trump stated that the U.S. and Canada have a "natural conflict" due to their proximity, complicating trade relations compared to countries that are farther away [1] - He emphasized that a completely tariff-free agreement with Canada is not feasible, indicating a preference for American-made products over Canadian imports, particularly in the automotive and steel sectors [1] Defense Cooperation - The two countries are reportedly working closely on the U.S. "Iron Dome" missile defense system, although specific details were not disclosed [1] - Trump previously mentioned that Canada would need to pay $61 billion to join the "Iron Dome" system, but suggested that if Canada were to become a valued 51st state, no payment would be required [1] Political Commentary - During the meeting, Trump humorously suggested the merger of Canada and the U.S., which was met with laughter from Carney, who quickly dismissed the idea [1] - Trump's past comments have included referring to Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau as the "Governor of Canada," indicating a dismissive attitude towards Canadian sovereignty [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalation of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on various countries, particularly China and India, starting from January 2023, with tariffs reaching as high as 125% on Chinese goods [2][4] - The U.S. court ruled against Trump's tariffs, stating that the president exceeded his legal authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which does not explicitly grant the power to impose tariffs [3][10] - The ruling has significant implications for U.S.-India trade, as the tariffs on Indian goods could affect exports worth approximately $86.5 billion, particularly impacting textiles, gems, and pharmaceuticals [6][8] Group 2 - The Indian government is responding to the tariffs by promoting local products and adjusting tax rates to stimulate consumption, while also seeking to diversify trade relationships, including a free trade agreement with the UK [7] - The ruling also benefits China, as it allows for a potential stabilization of export activities, despite ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [7][10] - The long-term implications of the ruling highlight the limitations of presidential power regarding tariff imposition, emphasizing that such authority lies primarily with Congress [10]

Core Points - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that Trump's executive order imposing tariffs on multiple countries, including China and India, was illegal, emphasizing the principle of separation of powers in the U.S. government [1][3][5] - The court specifically stated that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president the authority to impose tariffs arbitrarily, as it was intended for managing financial transactions during emergencies [1][5] - The ruling could potentially require the U.S. to refund up to $1 trillion in tariff revenues if the tariffs are deemed invalid, which has raised concerns about fiscal chaos [3][5] Impact on Trade Relations - The ruling directly affects export businesses in countries like China and India, with India facing significant tariffs on copper, steel, aluminum, and auto parts, leading to potential retaliatory measures [7] - India's exports to the U.S. for copper are valued at $360 million, while steel, aluminum, and auto parts exceed $2 billion, making the tariffs particularly damaging for Indian exporters [7] - The Indian government has gained confidence in negotiations with the U.S. following the court's decision, as public opinion in India has reacted positively to the ruling [7]