Core Viewpoint - The ongoing political deadlock in the U.S. is contributing to economic uncertainty, with rising prices and declining consumer spending highlighted in the latest Beige Book report [1] Economic Indicators - The Beige Book indicates further increases in U.S. prices, while consumer spending has seen a slight decrease [1] - Labor demand remains weak, suggesting potential challenges for economic growth [1] Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds are showing weakness, reflecting market concerns over global trade [1] - Gold prices in New York futures and London spot markets are maintaining levels above $4200 per ounce [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Milan, the economic advisor nominated by Trump and a Federal Reserve governor, expressed a desire for more significant interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above $9218, with a recent price of $9235, reflecting a 0.83% increase, and a trading range between $9155 and $9244 [1] - The market sentiment indicates a short-term oscillating trend for silver futures, with a focus on potential resistance around $9300 [5] Group 2 - President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on all Indian goods, raising the total tariff to 50%, citing India's continued import of Russian oil [3] - There are reports of potential new tariffs of 15% on Japanese goods and further measures targeting semiconductor and pharmaceutical products from Asian countries [3] - Market concerns regarding global trade are rising due to these tariff actions, alongside expectations for a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September exceeds 90%, with expectations for at least two more cuts within the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant fluctuations driven by strong seasonal demand, tariff announcements, and geopolitical factors, impacting various commodities including multi-crystalline silicon, industrial silicon, and fuel oil. Group 1: Commodity Performance - Multi-crystalline silicon and industrial silicon have continued their upward trend, with both surpassing key price thresholds, reaching over 43,000 and 8,800 respectively, marking new highs [7][9] - The European shipping index surged by 15.75%, reflecting strong demand during the peak season, with prices nearing a limit-up increase of over 17% [3][5] - Fuel oil prices have declined by approximately 2.81%, attributed to global trade concerns and supply pressures, indicating a weak market sentiment [11] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Strong seasonal demand is a crucial factor for the recent price increases, with Maersk reporting a nearly 5% rise in shipping rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam, despite some reductions from Mediterranean shipping [5] - The upcoming 30% tariffs on products imported from Mexico and the EU may alter transportation demand, further stimulating speculative market behavior [5] - In the multi-crystalline silicon sector, production is expected to increase among leading suppliers, while some smaller firms may reduce output, leading to a mixed supply outlook [9][10] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategies - The current market sentiment suggests that despite potential negative impacts from tariff policies, strong seasonal demand may stabilize spot prices at high levels, supporting upward trends in futures prices [5][9] - Analysts recommend adjusting trading strategies in the futures market to account for policy changes and market sentiment fluctuations, suggesting a shift to specific spread strategies [5] - The fuel oil market is anticipated to face downward pressure in the short term, particularly in the high-sulfur segment, due to oversupply and competitive pricing [11]

Group 1 - Gold prices have declined by 0.67% due to improved market sentiment and rising U.S. Treasury yields, with current prices at $3,002 [1] - The optimism in Wall Street trading is reflected in the slight increase in market sentiment, despite gold prices failing to maintain upward momentum, which has risen over 13% this year [1] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI has shown a significant decline from 52.7 to 49.8, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while the services PMI increased from 51.0 to 54.3, highlighting strong growth in the services sector [5] Group 2 - Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, indicated that the Fed may only cut rates once this year, with inflation expected to return to target levels around 2027 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged by 8 basis points to 4.331%, contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices [4] - The U.S. dollar index has risen by 0.20% to 104.35, further impacting gold's performance [5] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently facing pressure, with a potential drop below $3,000 if the downward trend continues, exposing previous volatility highs [7] - If gold maintains above $3,000, the first resistance level will be the peak of $3,047 reached in March, followed by this year's high of $3,057 and the $3,100 mark [7]