来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇8月18日丨德国商业银行的Michael Pfister在报告中表示，美国企业可能将关税成本转嫁给消费 者，这将加剧对经济的担忧，并导致美元走弱。这会增加通胀压力，并可能迫使消费者减少支出。"由 于美国消费者是美国增长的主要驱动力，这可能会加深对实体经济的担忧。"更高的通胀数据可能会愈 发明显。然而，考虑到美联储面临降息的政治压力，在这种情形下美联储是否会停止政策宽松仍存疑 问。德商银行预计，欧元兑美元EUR/USD将稳步上涨直至2026年底。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. inflation data indicates that inflation is not overheating, which, combined with weak employment data, has led the market to expect a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, estimated at 95% [4][5]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, matching market expectations, and year-on-year it increased by 2.7%, which is below the expected 2.8% and unchanged from June [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely tied to inflation metrics like the PCE price index and CPI, with rate cuts being more likely when inflation is low or the economy is weak [4]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The U.S. government has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on 69 countries, which could create new inflationary pressures despite stable July inflation data [5][6]. - As of June, U.S. consumers had borne about one-third of the tariff burden, but this is expected to shift significantly, with consumer responsibility for tariffs projected to rise from 22% to 67% by October [6]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the core PCE inflation rate could increase by 0.16% in July and an additional 0.5% from August to December, potentially raising the December core PCE year-on-year inflation rate to 3.2% [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - While current inflation data supports a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the escalating tariff policies pose a risk of increasing consumer prices and inflation, creating uncertainty for monetary policy decisions [7].

金十数据7月15日讯，在6月通胀如预期般加速的背景下，美元出现大幅波动，因为数据显示出关税正开 始推高美国消费者价格的迹象。一些美国常规进口商品的价格涨幅明显加快，例如家居用品类的价格由 5月的上涨0.3%跳升至6月的1%。这些数据强化了利率保持在高位的理由，从而可能支撑美元走势。 Spartan公司分析师Peter Cardillo写道："与关税相关的通胀正开始渗入体系，这证明美联储采取'观望'态 度是正确的。" 机构：关税推高美国通胀，美元走势震荡 ...

ING Bank NV策略师Chris Turner表示，在关税推高通胀并迫使美联储推迟降息后，美元将迎来几个月的 上涨。Turner表示，美元今年螺旋式下行后有望获得阶段性支撑，因为贸易关税将从8月起刺激消费者 价格加速上涨，制约美联储降息。在此期间，他预计欧元兑美元汇率将短暂回落至1.13-1.15区间，日元 兑美元汇率将跌至145-150。这意味着欧元和日元均将下跌约4%。"我们认为美联储直到12月可能都会 维持利率不变，"Turner表示，"届时，美元或许会出现小幅调整。"（彭博） ...