当"关税推高通胀"的经典逻辑再度被特朗普的贸易政策推上舞台，美国市场却演绎出截然不同的剧本。日本车企在高关税下非但没有提价转嫁成本，反而 集体降价"以价换量"，由此意外形成了一道抑制美国通胀的"无声缓冲层"。 本文以日本汽车产业为切口，从利润数据与价格曲线的细微变化入手，追踪关税、利润与通胀之间的复杂传导路径。作者以"三幕"展开分析：从日本车企 的被动降价，到全球制造业的"降价接力"，再到利润与库存双重透支下的通胀回涌，揭示了政治力量如何短暂重塑市场逻辑、而经济规律终将反噬的深层 矛盾。 第一幕：以价换量日本车企在高关税下的"牺牲"策略 在高关税的压力下，日本车企几乎难逃"降价宿命"，本部分计划循着现象、原因、理论的脉络来拆解这一现象的表与里。 在这场看似微观的价格博弈背后，是地缘政治、货币政策与全球供应链的三重共振——这是一场关于通胀的"隐退"与"回归"的全球叙事。 引言：关税上调，价格下探——日本车企的"逆向逻辑" 4月2日，特朗普宣布将对各国进口商品征收"对等关税"。次日起，所有非美生产的汽车被加征高达25%的进口税率，导致该行业的总关税达到27.5%（此 前已有2.5%基本税率）。 一般来说，关税将显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current forecasts indicate that tariffs will not significantly increase inflation, and there is no necessity to adjust the Federal Reserve's inflation target [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Inflation Impact**: The predictions suggest that tariffs will not have a substantial effect on inflation levels [1] - **Federal Reserve's Inflation Target**: There is no perceived need to modify the inflation target set by the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - US companies may pass on tariff costs to consumers, raising economic concerns and potentially weakening the dollar, which could increase inflationary pressures and lead to reduced consumer spending [1] Economic Impact - Higher inflation data may become more apparent, deepening concerns about the real economy as US consumers are the main drivers of growth [1] - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates raises questions about whether the Fed will halt policy easing in this scenario [1] Currency Forecast - Deutsche Bank expects the EUR/USD exchange rate to steadily rise until the end of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. inflation data indicates that inflation is not overheating, which, combined with weak employment data, has led the market to expect a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, estimated at 95% [4][5]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, matching market expectations, and year-on-year it increased by 2.7%, which is below the expected 2.8% and unchanged from June [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely tied to inflation metrics like the PCE price index and CPI, with rate cuts being more likely when inflation is low or the economy is weak [4]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The U.S. government has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on 69 countries, which could create new inflationary pressures despite stable July inflation data [5][6]. - As of June, U.S. consumers had borne about one-third of the tariff burden, but this is expected to shift significantly, with consumer responsibility for tariffs projected to rise from 22% to 67% by October [6]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the core PCE inflation rate could increase by 0.16% in July and an additional 0.5% from August to December, potentially raising the December core PCE year-on-year inflation rate to 3.2% [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - While current inflation data supports a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the escalating tariff policies pose a risk of increasing consumer prices and inflation, creating uncertainty for monetary policy decisions [7].

Core Insights - Tariffs are contributing to rising inflation in the U.S., leading to significant fluctuations in the dollar's value [1] - Prices of certain imported goods, particularly in the home goods category, have seen a notable increase, with a jump from 0.3% in May to 1% in June [1] - The data supports the rationale for maintaining high interest rates, which may bolster the dollar's performance [1] - Analysts suggest that the inflation linked to tariffs is beginning to permeate the economy, validating the Federal Reserve's cautious stance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is expected to strengthen over the next few months due to tariffs driving inflation and delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Tariffs are anticipated to accelerate consumer price increases starting in August, which will limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates [1] - The strategist predicts that the euro to dollar exchange rate will temporarily fall to the range of 1.13-1.15, while the yen to dollar exchange rate will decline to 145-150, indicating a drop of approximately 4% for both currencies [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates until December, with a potential slight adjustment for the dollar at that time [1]