Core Insights - A significant portion (72%) of the increase in the U.S. CPI exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [1] - Inflation in the service sector continues to hover above the target, with risks associated with tariff delays [1] - The inflation rate has remained above the Federal Reserve's target for over 50 months, and this trend is expected to persist until 2028 [1] - In this context, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement substantial interest rate cuts [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. September CPI data is expected to show a growth rate similar to August, with energy prices rising by 0.7% in August and likely continuing to show rapid growth in September [1] - The household food component increased by 0.6% in August, but the growth in September may slow down [1] - The September core CPI month-on-month rate is likely to reach 0.3%, rounding up to possibly show 0.4% [1] - Both overall and core CPI year-on-year rates for September are expected to be close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0% by a full percentage point [1] - The inflation level may be less concerning than the direction of change for the Federal Reserve, with inflation likely to rise rather than fall until the full impact of tariffs is passed on to consumers [1] - The situation could become more complex if new tariffs are implemented and affect more industries, making it difficult to envision inflation reaching the Federal Reserve's target in the short term without a significant economic recession [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current forecasts indicate that tariffs will not significantly increase inflation, and there is no necessity to adjust the Federal Reserve's inflation target [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Inflation Impact**: The predictions suggest that tariffs will not have a substantial effect on inflation levels [1] - **Federal Reserve's Inflation Target**: There is no perceived need to modify the inflation target set by the Federal Reserve [1]

美联储米兰：认为无需改变美联储的通胀目标。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve has not met its inflation target for 54 months, indicating a prolonged period of excess inflation [1][2] - Approximately three million children have been born since the Fed last achieved its inflation target, highlighting the significance of this duration [2] Inflation Insights - Current excess inflation is compounded on a 20% increase in the consumer price level, emphasizing the severity of the situation [3] - The core PCE inflation rate is reported at 2.9%, which some may downplay, but it remains a significant concern given the context of previous price increases [4][6] Policy Considerations - The discussion around tariffs suggests they only affect a small portion of the PCE index, with services unaffected by tariffs still increasing at an annualized rate of 3.5% [5][6] - There is a concern that aggressive rate cuts could lead to upward pressure on yields, as seen in previous instances where rate cuts were followed by increases in long-term yields [12] Future Expectations - The expectation is that the Fed should take time to assess the current economic conditions rather than rushing into rate cuts, especially in light of a significant capital expenditure boom [10][11] - The forward curve indicates a potential drop in rates to 3% by the end of next year, which may not align with the current economic environment characterized by low unemployment and high capital expenditures [15][16] Tariff Implications - There are complexities surrounding tariffs, including the potential for the president to utilize various statutory authorities to impose or maintain tariffs, regardless of legal challenges [17][18]