我问你个问题，你有没有发现，这世界上有一种特别赖皮的游戏规则，就是当庄家发现自己快要完不成目标的时候，他不是去努力完成，而是直接把目 标给改了？ 这事儿发生在你老板身上你可能会骂娘，但现在这事儿可能要发生在全球最大的印钞机——美联储身上了。我这两天刷新闻，看到斯科特·贝森特的一个 言论，当时我就愣在那儿琢磨了半天，这哪是在谈经济，这分明是在给咱们所有人打预防针。 贝森特这人不是路人甲，他是索罗斯的前合伙人、Key Square Group的创始人，更是特朗普阵营里的经济红人，被外界普遍看作是未来美国财政部长的热 门人选。 他说了一句特别耐人寻味的话，大概意思是：美联储那个死守了多年的2%通胀目标，是不是该改改了？他建议等通胀稍微稳一点，咱们可以把目标设成 一个区间，比如1.5%到2.5%，甚至1%到3%都行。 我查了下资料，这话可不是随便说说的。按照路透社和彭博社的报道，这种风声最近放出来，背后全是算计。你美联储死守2%这个数字，其实也就是从 2012年伯南克时代才正式写进官方文件的，虽然之前大家心照不宣都按这个来，但真把它当成金科玉律也就这十几年的事。 为什么是2%？因为这是一个很微妙的平衡点，既能避免通缩 ...

在美东时间周二的交易中，美股三大指数集体收高，均录得连续第四个交易日的上涨，标普500指数收 盘创历史新高。当天美国商务部公布的首次预估数据成为市场焦点，其数据显示今年第三季度美国国内 生产总值（GDP）环比按年率计算增长4.3%，这一数据超过第二季度的3.8%，也高于市场预期的 3.2%。根据美国商务部的信息，当季出口和消费支出有所增长，但投资和进口出现下降。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 大型科技股整体走强，成为市场主要推动力。其中，芯片制造商英伟达涨幅超过3%，谷歌和亚马逊的 涨幅均超过1%。阿波罗财富管理公司的首席投资官埃里克·斯特纳表示，未来美联储主席的人选可能比 现任的鲍威尔持有更偏宽松的政策立场。美国总统特朗普在当日晚些时候通过社交媒体发表评论，强调 他希望在市场向好的情况下降低利率。 此外，美国财政部长珍妮特·贝森特公开表示，一旦通胀率回落至2%水平后，或许可以考虑重新审视美 联储的通胀目标，探讨将其设定为区间（例如1.5%-2.5%或1%-3%）。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈 塞特则指出，美国在降息节奏上已经严重滞后。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参 ...

Hot News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued opinions on promoting the large - scale development of solar thermal power generation. The goal is to reach a total installed capacity of about 15 million kilowatts by 2030, with the cost per kilowatt - hour comparable to that of coal - fired power [2] - The U.S. economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, supported by resilient consumer and business spending and more stable trade policies. The real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the third quarter was 4.3% [2] - Investors reduced their bets on the Fed cutting interest rates next year. The probability of a rate cut at the January 28 meeting is only about 17% [2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent supports reconsidering the Fed's 2% inflation target, and discussions may center on adjusting it to a range of 1.5% - 2.5% or 1% - 3% [2] - U.S. President Trump praised the third - quarter GDP data, but the market reaction was abnormal. Good news often leads to a flat or falling stock market [3] Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: silver, rapeseed oil, ethylene glycol, Shanghai nickel, PVC [4] - Night session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.30%, precious metals 34.77%, oilseeds and oils 8.02%, soft commodities 3.16%, non - ferrous metals 24.36%, coal - coking - steel - minerals 10.27%, energy 2.32%, chemicals 10.20%, grains 1.20%, and agricultural products 3.40% [4] Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07% daily, 0.81% monthly, and 16.95% annually; S&P 500 had no daily change, 0.43% monthly, and 16.95% annually [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.26% daily and monthly, - 0.65% annually [6] - Commodities: CRB Commodity Index had no daily change, - 0.93% monthly, and 0.66% annually; WTI crude oil had no daily change, - 0.80% monthly, and - 19.45% annually [6] - Others: U.S. dollar index had no daily change, - 1.19% monthly, and - 9.42% annually; CBOE Volatility Index had no daily change, - 13.88% monthly, and - 18.85% annually [6] Stock Market Risk Appetite and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents charts of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc. [7]

此外，现货铂金创下历史新高，升破2300美元/盎司，本周累涨超300美元[5]；现货钯金涨幅扩大至 7%，报1881.43美元/盎司[6]。 来源：喜娜AI 一、贵金属期货 纽约期金价格呈现震荡上行态势，先后突破4520美元/盎司、4530美元/盎司和4540美元/盎司关口，日内 涨幅分别达0.32%、0.54%和0.76%[1][2][3]。 现货黄金同步走强，突破4500美元/盎司，日内涨0.35%[4]。 美国总统特朗普表示，若市场表现良好，希望新任美联储主席降低利率，并称美国经济成就应获嘉奖， 不认同此主张者无权担任美联储主席[18][19]。 白银市场同样表现强劲，现货白银突破71美元/盎司，日内涨2.94%，纽约期银同步突破71美元/盎司， 日内涨3.57%，国内白银连续主力合约日内涨幅达4%，现报16939.00元[7][8][9][10]。 美国财政部长贝森特建议，在通胀回落至2%后，将美联储通胀目标修改为区间（如1.5%-2.5%或 1%-3%）[20]。 二、能源与航运期货 日本拟在2026财年预算中按3%的利率核算国债支出，韩国总统政策室长则表示将采取举措稳定汇率[21] [22]。 原 ...

Core Insights - A significant portion (72%) of the increase in the U.S. CPI exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [1] - Inflation in the service sector continues to hover above the target, with risks associated with tariff delays [1] - The inflation rate has remained above the Federal Reserve's target for over 50 months, and this trend is expected to persist until 2028 [1] - In this context, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement substantial interest rate cuts [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. September CPI data is expected to show a growth rate similar to August, with energy prices rising by 0.7% in August and likely continuing to show rapid growth in September [1] - The household food component increased by 0.6% in August, but the growth in September may slow down [1] - The September core CPI month-on-month rate is likely to reach 0.3%, rounding up to possibly show 0.4% [1] - Both overall and core CPI year-on-year rates for September are expected to be close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0% by a full percentage point [1] - The inflation level may be less concerning than the direction of change for the Federal Reserve, with inflation likely to rise rather than fall until the full impact of tariffs is passed on to consumers [1] - The situation could become more complex if new tariffs are implemented and affect more industries, making it difficult to envision inflation reaching the Federal Reserve's target in the short term without a significant economic recession [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current forecasts indicate that tariffs will not significantly increase inflation, and there is no necessity to adjust the Federal Reserve's inflation target [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Inflation Impact**: The predictions suggest that tariffs will not have a substantial effect on inflation levels [1] - **Federal Reserve's Inflation Target**: There is no perceived need to modify the inflation target set by the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Milan believes there is no need to change the inflation target of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The current inflation target set by the Federal Reserve remains appropriate according to Milan [1]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve has not met its inflation target for 54 months, indicating a prolonged period of excess inflation [1][2] - Approximately three million children have been born since the Fed last achieved its inflation target, highlighting the significance of this duration [2] Inflation Insights - Current excess inflation is compounded on a 20% increase in the consumer price level, emphasizing the severity of the situation [3] - The core PCE inflation rate is reported at 2.9%, which some may downplay, but it remains a significant concern given the context of previous price increases [4][6] Policy Considerations - The discussion around tariffs suggests they only affect a small portion of the PCE index, with services unaffected by tariffs still increasing at an annualized rate of 3.5% [5][6] - There is a concern that aggressive rate cuts could lead to upward pressure on yields, as seen in previous instances where rate cuts were followed by increases in long-term yields [12] Future Expectations - The expectation is that the Fed should take time to assess the current economic conditions rather than rushing into rate cuts, especially in light of a significant capital expenditure boom [10][11] - The forward curve indicates a potential drop in rates to 3% by the end of next year, which may not align with the current economic environment characterized by low unemployment and high capital expenditures [15][16] Tariff Implications - There are complexities surrounding tariffs, including the potential for the president to utilize various statutory authorities to impose or maintain tariffs, regardless of legal challenges [17][18]