消息面上，同花顺iFinD数据显示，12月22日，COMEX黄金盘中涨破4450美元，续刷新高。值得关注的 是，近日，美联储理事米兰警告称，如果美国央行在明年不继续下调利率，可能会增加经济陷入衰退的 风险。同时，米兰在接受采访时表示，近期就业数据已显示失业率"可能高于此前市场预期"，这类信号 足以推动美联储政策继续向宽松方向调整。诺安基金认为，全球主要国家财政政策的扩张、央行增持、 美元资产再配置需求、欧美央行降息仍将是黄金中长期的上行逻辑。 黄金股再度走强，截至发稿，山东黄金(01787)涨5.25%，报38.06港元；招金矿业(02899)涨3.72%，报 33.48港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨3.54%，报19.57港元；赤峰黄金(06693)涨2.95%，报32.78港元。 鑫元基金表示，往后看，黄金牛市基础未改，但短期波动或加剧。若后续美国核心PCE继续回落，将巩 固2026年上半年两次25 bp降息预期，金价有望再试4400美元整数关口。中长期而言，特朗普即将提名 新任美联储主席，市场普遍预期其立场更鸽；叠加美国财政赤字扩张、债务规模高企及通胀不确定性， 实际利率与美元指数预计进入下行周期，黄金 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - London gold is currently trading above $4125, with a price of $4128.55 per ounce, reflecting a 0.07% increase, and has seen a high of $4144.99 and a low of $4098.29 during the session [1] - The short-term outlook for London gold appears to be leaning towards a volatile trading pattern [1] Group 2: Employment Market Insights - Recent data indicates a clear picture of a weakening job market, contrasting sharply with previous expectations of sustained strength [2] - The ADP report shows that, as of October 25, 2025, U.S. private employers averaged weekly layoffs of 11,250, highlighting the impact of recent government shutdowns on employment data [2] - The October non-farm payroll report revealed only 150,000 new jobs added, falling short of market expectations [2] - Economic slowdown signals have been accumulating, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance through multiple rate hikes to combat inflation [2] - Signs of economic weakness began to emerge in late summer and early fall of 2025, with manufacturing and services PMI entering contraction territory and consumer spending growth slowing [2] - A series of weak labor data starting in October has shifted market sentiment towards expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025 has surged to the 67%-70% range, a significant increase from previous forecasts [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - The 4070-4075 range is identified as a key Fibonacci retracement level and a critical support area for the current week [3] - The 4145 area is being tested repeatedly, which is close to previous high points of 4155-4161; a breakout after adjustment could lead to further upward movement towards 4165 and the 4188 level [3]

Group 1 - Silver prices have shown a continuous upward trend since early June 2025, with London silver rising from $32.9/oz to $44.46/oz, an increase of over 35%, and Shanghai silver increasing from ¥8220/kg to ¥10482/kg, a rise of 27.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new round of interest rate cuts, lowering rates by 25 basis points in September, with a cautious yet optimistic tone in their statements, indicating a neutral to slightly hawkish stance [1] - The Fed's internal divisions suggest that while there may be one more rate cut this year, the overall outlook remains uncertain, impacting precious metal prices in the short term [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is significant, which could positively influence silver prices in the medium to long term [2] - Despite a weak job market, inflation has not shown significant rebound, allowing for continued policy easing, with President Trump advocating for further rate cuts [2] - The Fed's commitment to maintaining policy independence suggests a gradual approach to rate cuts, with expectations of 50 basis points total this year and potential further cuts in 2026 [2] Group 3 - There remains a strong demand for safe-haven assets and allocation needs, driven by ongoing global trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [3] - Silver is increasingly viewed as a valuable asset for portfolio optimization and risk hedging, especially as gold prices rise [3] - The technical outlook for silver remains strong, with prices breaking above $40/oz, attracting trend-following investors [3] Group 4 - An analysis of the silver market indicates no mid-term bearish factors, suggesting a continued strong performance in the future [4] - The ongoing restructuring of global trade, monetary, and economic orders contributes to market uncertainty, maintaining a tight supply-demand relationship for precious metals [4] - The recommendation is to maintain a strategy of buying on dips rather than short selling [4]

Core Viewpoint - US companies may pass on tariff costs to consumers, raising economic concerns and potentially weakening the dollar, which could increase inflationary pressures and lead to reduced consumer spending [1] Economic Impact - Higher inflation data may become more apparent, deepening concerns about the real economy as US consumers are the main drivers of growth [1] - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates raises questions about whether the Fed will halt policy easing in this scenario [1] Currency Forecast - Deutsche Bank expects the EUR/USD exchange rate to steadily rise until the end of 2026 [1]